30 Days Out - Season Prediction Thread
Season is about to begin, the Coaches Poll just came out, and I wanted to see what your predictions were leading into Fall Camp. 11-1 is my prediction. Your turn.
vs Middle Tenn State - W 38-9
vs Army - W 31 - 10
Big Ten Opener @ Wisconsin - W 24-14
vs Rutgers - W 49 - 0
vs Iowa - W 31 - 21
vs Illinois - W 45 - 10
@ Penn State - W 24-21
vs ND - W 28 - 24
vs Maryland W 24 - 17
vs MSU - W 31 - 24
vs Indiana - W 56 - 42
vs OSU - L 28 - 27
I'm guessing he means >10, not 10+
Edit: RIP Chris Farley
Win most of the games, but one of them isn't OSU and everyone is furious about it.
How does MSU get to 24?
after watching the OSU and Florida game film, with 11 months to prepare and M losing all of their best contributors on defense? You don’t think Dantonio is going to coach his best game in quite a while? He will have 2/3rds of a season to find/confirm Brown’s weak spots, and there will be several. MSU will want that game so badly.
It's time to stop fearing MSU and Dantonio.
UM by double digits.
MSU wants to win that game over all else every year. Nothing changes there. And honestly do you have faith in that offense? I mean it’s no penn st this year but still.
I hope you guys are correct.
vs Middle Tenn State - W 35-10
vs Army - L 24 - 27 (I think we lose a couple key guys on D in this game and our young D isn't as technically sound as they need to be and we lose a close one) - my bold prediction for the year
Big Ten Opener @ Wisconsin - W 21-17 (Close game, road struggles continue)
vs Rutgers - W 38-10
vs Iowa - W 24-17
vs Illinois - W 42-14
@ Penn State - L 17-27 (PSU isn't going to be very good but road game, whiteout, night, etc... until this team can prove they can win in a hostile environment I wouldn't bet on them)
vs ND - L 27 - 34 (I think ND is relatively close to use in talent, generally when that happens we lose)
vs Maryland W 32-10
vs MSU - W - 27 - 13
vs Indiana - W 42-32
vs OSU - L 48 - 24 (At this point in the year the OSU team has had enough to time gel and build in game experience at their lacking positions.)
8 and 4 regular season, we get beat by a bad team in a bowl game to go 8 and 5 on the year. Trying to run a "speed in space" offense without the right personnel, very little exp in the running back position plus shaky receiver health (I believe DPJ will be playing hobbled this year and Tarik Black's injury history) leaves Nico Collins and a bunch of relatively untested guys. Lost too much on the D to be absolutely dominant like we are used to, Devin Bush is going to be sorely missed. Another year of epic hype to start only to struggle against any of our opponents with a pulse.
Hope I am wrong
Yep. Josh9676, you are saying exactly what I think except I think M beats Army and loses to one or both of Wisconsin and MSU. Hard to see M winning in Madison and a healthy MSU only cares about beating M. OSU by 20+ feels right to me.
8-4 or 7-5
I WANT TO BE SO WRONG!
I will continue to be confused by the worry over our 'new' offense when its not that new and its an offense high school teams run.
In what way is it not a new offense?
Sorry for the late response. First of all I said its not that new. We will be running many of the same concepts we ran last year, including I would guess our entire blocking scheme will stay functionally the same as what it was last year, as Ed Warinner was here then and started emphasizing a spread scheme. Shea ran a version of this offense at Ole Miss and in high school. Since QB and OL have the most burden in learning a new offense, thus not that new.
Also, since high school teams find a way to run it with much less time and much less experience, I figure athletes at the University of Michigan will handle it just fine.
EDIT to add: It will be the perfect excuse if they struggle to win big games again though.
Fuck it, I’ll be the bias one here.
MTSU - W 55-7
ARMY - W 24-10
WIsky - W 35-14
Rutgers - W 55-0
Iowa - W 35-24
Illinois- W 49-7
Penn State - W 24-21
ND - W 28-24
Maryland - L 35-28
MSU - W 35-21
Indiana - W 41-35
OSU W 31-28
B1G champ V Nebraska W - 28-21
CPF Semi V Clemson L 42-28
How would Maryland get 35??
August 2nd, 2019 at 10:31 AM ^
The team gets sick eating bad fish the night before and the Michigan Marching Band is drafted to play football.
Heart says 11-1 because I want to believe the Gattis transition is real. Get thumped in the first round of the CFP.
Head says 9-3 in regular season because it's damn hard to go 12-0 or 11-1 and there's always a few coin-flip games.
Looses @PSU and OSU. I just won’t pick a win against OSU until I see it happen.
10-2, with a 7-2 conference record
This season is about impossible to predict: new offense, unproven RB’s, non elite offensive tackles, several question marks on D, a daunting schedule and thanksgiving weekend...
Looking at the schedule I see 8 games that Michigan *could* lose. How many of those can you honestly expect to win? 4 laughers, plus 5 wins in those 8 gives michigan 9 total and that sounds about right to me. Who will those 5 be against? I have no clue.
12-0, lay a big wet fart in B1G Championship game ........
barely make the playoff, pull off the greatest perceived upset of all time in Game 1 ....and then .....
Maybe if we are still the huge underdog ..... the greatest upset again?
10-2. I say we lose one of the at Wisc and at PSU games, and we lose one of the home ND, home MSU, home OSU games. Possibly both of the away games and none of the home games.
But let's see how practice goes.
Way more worried about the ND game than OSU. People love to downplay ND's achievements in recent memory, citing the Bama and Clemson postseason blowouts, but the truth is Kelly has had them in contention more than most programs can say in that span and they bring back enough talent and experience to warrant legit title hype.
That's a bold strategy. Let's see if it pays off.
Vs. MTS-W 63-13
Vs. Army-W 31-24
@ Wisconsin-L 27-24
Vs. Rutgers W 51-17
Vs. Iowa W 27-17
@ Illinois W 48-20
@PSU W 31-20
Vs. ND W 34-30
@ MD W 31-24
Vs. MSU W 38-17
@IN W 24-20
Vs. OSU L 38-24
New Years Day Bowl L
10-3 until they can prove they can beat a solid team on the road and Ohio I can't pick them to win. I do not believe PSU will be that good again. I picked the other loss at Wisconsin tough environment and not the best team but always solid and especially at home, and I just believe that when everything comes down to that last game and they lose the bowl game is already lost no matter who the opponent is. Prove me wrong please and thank you
11 - 1. We beat Ohio St. Win Big Ten Championship game.
If we lose to O$U, at home, again, my head is probably going to explode!!!
9-3. I think the defense takes a pretty big step back this year. I hope i'm wrong but you cant get much more talented than the defense was last year and we saw how it ended.
This is also a prove it year for Don Brown's system and why I think he was ready to bolt for a program like Temple.
I am just going to say that if an undefeated season ends with another loss to OSU, I will rage quit modding, get hammered and then probably pee my pants peacefully while I am unconscious on the living room floor.
Army is scoring more than 10 points on us.
Also, if osu beats us by 1, especially if we win all the other games -- I may just have to retire. That would probably be it for me.
9-3 with losses to either Wisconsin or Penn State, either MSU or ND, and OSU. (And a nail biter with Army.)
The loss to OSU will definitely cause me to throw my walker.
If there's one game I would prefer to lose over any others it is vs. ND. Solid team - not a 'bad' loss - and wouldn't factor at all into the conference standings.
In now his fifth season, Harbaugh will have the best team he's had. Best seasoned-veteran QB, best O-line, WRs as good if not better than any he's had previously, TEs very good. RB a question mark, OK if Charbonnet stays healthy. Brown will provide a good D --- Kwity and Josh need to harass the opposing QB. LBs should be OK --- DBs will be fine. Recruits such as Hill and Hinton should contribute immediately.
All that said, here's where I don my Maize-colored glasses. M will do well against MT and Army. Badger's ain't that great despite their great RB (M corralled him last year) --- another win. M undefeated going into ND game, which is in AA. ND good, but M will prove a little better; question will be how well M defends against their QB. A win against Sparty at home will give Coach Jim a 3-2 record against Darth Dantonio.
That last game? Shea Patterson cements his legacy as one of the great M QBs. Buckeyes can be had. Last year M got smoked 62-39. Scenario similar to 1968 when M lost in Columbus 50-14 and came back to win the following year in AA 24-12. M will repeat that scenario this fall, then on to the playoffs.
I'm surprised people are so gun-ho about Wisconsin. The offense probably isn't going to hit it's stride right out of the gate and game 3 on the road in a hostile environment is going to be tough to overcome (similar to ND last year).
I got 10-2 with losses to Wis and ND (ugh), but finally getting a W over OSU.
Win in the B1G Championship, loss in semi finals of playoffs.
I "HOPE" they run the table "BUT" its a tough schedule so here goes 11 and 1 , they do nor looze to Ohio State , they looze to someone on the road.
11-1 with loss in Happy Valley. Win B1G championship game and go to playoff.
I hit the nail on the head last year saying we would go 10-2 loosing the first and last game. See how close I come this year and I’m feeling 11-1 also but think we beat OSU this year but will drop a game we shouldn’t I will say the game against Iowa we drop it on a last second field goal like 23-21
10-3
I don't do BPONE, but I may be prone to excessive optimism. However, I always temper my optimism with serious analysis. That being said, a 12-0 undefeated regular season is my prediction. Why? Because Michigan is the more talented team in all but one of their games. And, the one team that is more talented than Michigan is breaking in a first year head coach and starting quarterback, while playing their biggest game on the road.
I'll only give analysis on the perceived tougher games.
Army - one dimensional (run based) offense, averaged 33/ppg last year, big bowl win, close loss to OU. However, Don Brown's defense has handled similar running teams before (Air Force 2017). Air Force was held to 168 yards rushing and 13 points. He will scheme against Army quite well. The game won't be close. Everyone cites the OU game from last year. But, OU's defense, a sieve for a decade, gave up 339 yards rushing and couldn't get off the field (44+ mins).
@Wisconsin - in their 3rd game of the season, they will likely start a true freshman quarterback or the extremely unimpressive guy who started the last 4 games last year. The Badgers will play tough defense at home, but they will struggle to score points. Michigan will win this game by double digits.
@Penn State - with all of their transfers and de-commitments, how much talent is left in Happy Valley? Emotions will be high for the home team, but they lack the quarterback, running back, and offensive system to beat Michigan. Double digit win for Michigan.
Notre Dame - good team, but Michigan is the better team. The Wolverines lost in South Bend by a td last year. I doubt Michigan will have the same flawed gameplan as they had last year (17 points), and a better offensive showing by the Wolverines will result in a ten point win.
MSU - their offense will be bad, and their defense is overrated. No matter how much they want the game, they have needed some rather fortuitous circumstances (snap, O'Korn and deluge) to squeeze out very close wins against Michigan in the Harbaugh era. However, Michigan has had 2 comfortable victories in that span, and been the better team overall. Michigan breezes to a 2 touchdown win.
The Game - Ryan Day is not Urban Meyer, and Justin Fields is not Dwayne Haskins. Those two may become great, just not this early in their tenures. Michigan will be a dominant team by The Game, and win by a touchdown.
All of the angst about the new offense is unfounded. Michigan's skill players are built for this offense, and after averaging 35 points per game last year in a slow motion, ball control offense, Michigan should average at least a touchdown more per game with this updated attack.
Defensively, yes Michigan lost 4 NFL starter caliber studs, but we've seen Don Brown's defense perform excellently with Gedeon at MLB, and when replacing 9 of 11 starters. Michigan has recruited well on defense, and Don Brown is still Don Brown. Paye and Uche were, arguably, the best pass rushers last year, and Hudson should see a return to 2017 form at Viper. Ross may not be Devin Bush, but I'll bet he's at least as good as Ben Gedeon. And, Ben led a top 5 defense!
Even the nervous bird ain't concerned.
Of course, the closer to thanksgiving .....
Imma go full Lou Holtz and say michigan is going 15-0 and winning the super bowl to top it all off
I think all of the most optimistic people in this thread are massively over-rating M’s defense. I will believe it when I see them get meaningful stops and take over against a rival. Otherwise all I see is a very young, unproven defense who lost 4 of the best players and biggest contributors. We don’t even know if Brown has made enough or the correct adjustments after being thoroughly exposed last season by OSU, Florida, and to a lesser but important extent, Indiana.
I'll retort with:
Firstly, we lost more on defense in '15&'16 but never missed a beat, plus this year we are replacing the 4 with two of our best defensive classes of all time and the most underrated class of all time; not to mention B, which is the fact the offense changes will make it easier for the defense to be aggressive since the plan is to be up early and up a lot, especially against scrubs.
Lastly considered, but maybe the most important thing:
Mattison is no longer the DLine coach!
This isn't just addition by subtraction it's multiplication by subtraction.
Now we know why a unit that was thought to be a strength was underachieving and needed Chase to wear clown shoes just to get them motivated. And the best part is the turncoat ain't gone and forgotten, he's sharing a cooler with Ryan Day as we speak :)
Bevis and Butthead indeed.
GoFuckingBlue!
W vs Middle Tenn State
L vs Army
W Big Ten Opener @ Wisconsin
W vs Rutgers
W vs Iowa
W vs Illinois
W @ Penn State
W vs ND
W vs Maryland
W vs MSU
W vs Indiana
W vs OSU
Bittersweet. I think I could deal with this, though
August 1st, 2019 at 10:03 PM ^
9-3
Drop the two tough road games at PSU and Wisconsin. This team has to prove to me it can win road games against good teams. MSU was not a good team last year, and Northwestern is still Northwestern. PSU may take a step back, but that seems like the kind of game Michigan would drop.
Beat ND and MSU but lose to OSU. Another game that I just say until you prove to me you can win, I will just assume you find another way to lose.
Play in the Buffalo Wild Wings / Citrus / Capital One / Whatever the Fuck It’s Called Bowl against......you guessed it.......Florida.
August 1st, 2019 at 11:08 PM ^
When does fall camp start?