3 Year Win Totals

Submitted by Kilgore Trout on

After a little time reading twitter and the board here, I got to wondering how this three year stretch of Michigan football since Harbaugh took over compares to historical numbers. I did a little research and calculated the running three year win totals and winning percentage in the "modern era" of Michigan football since 1969. For 2017, I assumed the most likely outcome of losing to Ohio State and winning a mid-tier bowl, ending up 9-4. If you're interested, you can see it all at the link below.

Michigan Football 3 Year Running Totals Since 1969

- 2017's 3 year win total of 29 is tied for 10th best in the 47 year sample

- 2017's 3 year winning percentage of 74.4% is 26th best in the 47 year sample

- 29 wins is the best since 2004 and the second best this millenium

- 74.4% is the best since 2004 and third best this millenium

- Bo got off to a hell of a start. He had the best 3 win% years in his first six years on the job and 3 of the 4 best win totals in his first six years (72, 73, 74)

 

I absolutely get that what you win (championships) and who you beat makes a huge difference, but I think it's important to get some context. Unless we think Alabama level sucess is our birthright and expectation (something that hasn't happened in over 40 years), I think it's important to recognize that this has been a pretty good stretch of years compared to where we've been. I'm all for setting goals high, but let's not be unrealistic about what our history says. 

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snarling wolverine

November 19th, 2017 at 1:03 AM ^

In three years, Harbaugh has either won or lost by one score 92% of the time.
Huh? In 2015 we played four one-score games (Utah, MSU, Minnesota, Indiana). In 2016 we also played four (Wisconsin, Iowa, OSU, FSU). In 2017 we've played two (MSU, Indiana). That's 10 out of 37 games - 27%. Of course we've had other games that were close until the fourth quarter (like today), but 92% is a huge exaggeration.

Joined: 12/14/2011

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MacAttackUpNorth

November 19th, 2017 at 1:46 AM ^

2015: Lost to Utah (-7) and MSU (-4) 2016: Lost to Ohio (-3), Iowa (-1) and FSU (-1) 2017: Lost to MSU (-4) Overall- six loses by less than 1 score, add those to the 28 games we’ve won = 34 We’ve lost 3 games by double digits; Ohio ‘15, Penn State ‘17 and Wisconsin ‘17 34 of 37 equals 91.89%, I’m a homer so added the .11 to make it 92%. 92% of the time we win or we’ve lost by one score (over the past three seasons)

Joined: 11/19/2017

MGoPoints: 17

MichiganMan14

November 19th, 2017 at 12:51 AM ^

I don't think it's fair to say our staff if awful or that our kids aren't good. It is fair to say that we've fallen short of expectations. We have. There is not a real reason why Michigan can't be a team in the Playoff race year in and out. I think a permeated self-established ceiling is what holds us back honestly. We don't expect to win big games like we should. The Michigan Standard should be higher. Our performance should match our talent intake. I don't think that's ignorant or too heightened an expectation. Someone explain to me why Michigan can't be great?

Joined: 02/21/2012

MGoPoints: 19111

MichiganMan14

November 19th, 2017 at 1:37 AM ^

But we were loaded last year too....and older than everyone. Our passing game next year will be as talented as we've seen in years. Running game should be good as well but we have to get a "Michigan" line that hell and high water protects their QBs. Run blocking has really improved but when multiple QBs are being taken out of games or being battered around.. that is not okay. Team speed will be better next year as well and back end depth and talent will be better. I don't want to comment on Harbaugh negatively and whether he's distracted. He is a head coach and is ultimately at the mercy of the ability of his staff. Our offense is 9th in the B1G. There is not a real excuse for that. Injuries happen. We just need to improve. It's not a time to be nasty but it is a time to look at what we are even demanding from ourselves. Michigan and it's fan base deserve to win Big games. We've yet to do that in the past 3 seasons. We've got another shot next weekend against a team that has been slapped twice this year. There is no excuse for us not to compete and have a great shot to win that football game.

Joined: 02/21/2012

MGoPoints: 19111

rice4114

November 19th, 2017 at 4:11 AM ^

Right now we have so many units working below an average level. With bowl practices, spring football, and fall camp how sure are we that these c/c- performing units come together to be not just B level but probably A level to go beat Msu, Osu, wisconsin, Notre dame and Penn state? That would be 5 losses this year. How are we sure we get that much better ?

Joined: 08/26/2010

MGoPoints: 47569

andrewgr

November 19th, 2017 at 3:50 AM ^

If your expectation is that performance should equal talent intake, then you should be fine with beating OSU once every four or five years.  The two teams are recruiting at very different levels, and that is before the 2018 classes, which will be OSU's highest rated of all time and a thoroughly average one for Michigan.   The gap between a 7th or 8th rated class and the monster classes Alabama and Ohio State have been putting together is very substantial.  The only thing allowing other Big10 teams to play competitevely with OSU right now is the rate at which they are losing star players early to the NFL, coupled with the ridiculously inept offensive staff the last two years prior to 2017.

A better hope would be for Michigan to gain an advantage in development and scheme so that they can compensate for the talent discrepancy and win 50% of the time against the Buckeyes.

 

Joined: 11/15/2013

MGoPoints: 3059

Grampy

November 19th, 2017 at 8:04 AM ^

Herding a group of strong willed 18-21 year olds, and you have to have some mental toughness to become a top-level D1 talent, is no easy task. Breakdowns happen, like 2 weeks ago in Iowa City. That's how Wisconsin plays mediocre against some lesser teams and puts together a strong performance against us on a big stage. We'll get better, but everyone in the B1G wants to play their best when Michigan comes to town. Talent and a superior scheme is the aspiration every year, but it also takes intangibles. Harbaugh can do this better than anyone we could replace him with, and graduate better men than anyone out there.

Joined: 06/29/2012

MGoPoints: 24351

Year of Revenge II

November 19th, 2017 at 6:15 AM ^

I disagree.  Our standards are plenty high.  It has been a long, long time since we have met them.

You question is conclusory. It argues that we cannot ge great, and asks for an explanation.+

We CAN be great.  We WILL be great.  It is a process; we are growing.  It's a little early to look ahead,but the future looks like we will return to excellence.

Got to keep recruiting though, keep the pipelines flowing. If we do that, we gonna get ours, both talent and results.

Joined: 11/12/2013

MGoPoints: 9188

chatster

November 19th, 2017 at 6:57 AM ^

Would it be acceptable for the University of Michigan, still considered to be among the top academic and research institutions in the world, to also be consistently ranked among the top ten academic and research institutions and athletic departments in the nation while having athletic programs that often compete for national and conference championships across the board in ALL sports?
 
Ohio State has been trying to get there by improving its academic reputation while maintaining excellence in most of its athletic programs.  It finished second to Stanford in the Learfield Directors Cup standings for 2016-17, while Michigan was fourth behind USC. (Penn State was seventh, Wisconsin was 15th.) LINK
 
It’s easy to go unnoticed here when Wolverine Devotee takes a respite from posting, but Michigan’s cross country teams just finished ninth (women) and tenth (men) at the NCAA championships, first among all Big Ten schools.  The third-ranked field hockey team won the Big Ten Tournament and got to the NCAA Final Four, before having its 18-game winning streak snapped by Maryland in the semi-finals.  Although it was upset by Wisconsin in the Big Ten tournament semifinals, the men’s soccer team won the Big Ten regular season championship and starts play today in the NCAA tournament as the 13th seed in the tournament. Michigan’s Brienne Minor won the NCAA women’s singles tennis tournament earlier this year.
 
Sure, Alabama and Ohio State are the “standards” that Michigan should aspire to in football, but that standard might not be so easy to reach, considering Michigan’s recent history as just a good, but less than great football program that’s saddled with (a) fairly stringent academic standards, (b) a dearth of top-level, in-state high school football programs and (c) less than ideal climate conditions, and that also hasn’t won or tied for a Big Ten championship since 2004 or a national championship since 1997.  (Strangely, despite Ohio State’s overwhelming dominance in the football rivalry since 2000, during that time Ohio State has had 14 players named as consensus All-Americans while Michigan has had 13 consensus All-Americans, even though Ohio State has enjoyed better coaching.)

Joined: 09/14/2010

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pwnwulf

November 19th, 2017 at 6:47 AM ^

We’re like the Yankees. I think a lot of these crazy expectations are because Harbaugh is in the media spotlight all the time (a lot of it is his own doing). Jumping in the pool with his street clothes on, sending the team on ridiculous trips to Rome, sleeping over at recruits houses etc. He’s also the highest paid coach in college football so is it that unreasonable to expect he could beat MSU who has sub par talent compared to us the last 3-4 years, or beat Ohio State who’s supposed to be your season. I trust in Harbaugh but his antics need to stop and he needs to focus on football and that’s it. Non of his weird ass shit matters if you win but right now he’s the laughing stock of college coaches and the media pressure is well deserved. Maybe Harbaugh needs to strap on the fucking iron jock.

Joined: 09/20/2009

MGoPoints: 61

Perkis-Size Me

November 19th, 2017 at 7:06 AM ^

No one gives a shit if you roll through the Rutgers and Minnesota portion of your schedule and ground those opponents into a fine paste. Harbaugh can go undefeated against those guys 10 years in a row and NO. ONE. CARES.

His program is judged by what it does against OSU, what it does when it’s back is against the wall and the Big Ten title is on the line, what it does in tough road games against good teams, what it does to a pesky MSU squad that has inexplicably had its number for the better part of a decade. In almost all of those situations, the team has largely shriveled up and died.

Not all wins are created equal. For $9 million a year Harbaugh needs to be doing better than this.

Joined: 11/30/2011

MGoPoints: 105911

LV Sports Bettor

November 19th, 2017 at 8:56 AM ^

if they were losing to Rutgers and Minnesota on top of this he'd likely be out the door soon or throw in a MSU win this year instead but the 3rd loss against a Rutgers or Maryland and things really do look worse. Point is he could have same record and be considered 'failing'. As bad as it's been, it's actually been about as good as it could be for record he's put up, haha (if that makes sense)/

He's still considered "unfireable" by 99 pct of the folks and is someone that most football teams (college and pro) would pay top dollar to have, start losing to those type of teams instead of the good ones and things are going to be judged as being a whole lot worse despite same record.

Joined: 12/06/2014

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Greg McMurtry

November 19th, 2017 at 9:35 AM ^

Which QB would you play that’s going to beat OSU? A concussed Peters? Shell of his former self Speight coming off broken vertebrae? O’Korn? Burn McCaffrey’s RS for one game? You guys are very good at complaining and then signing off. What’s the solution? What’s the solution for this week? Just magically win because their “backs are against the wall?” Not to mention we have 1 RB who is healthy, and a porous pass-blocking OL, but just win because the coach has a high salary.

Joined: 02/25/2009

MGoPoints: 135507

ohioNblue33

November 19th, 2017 at 7:36 AM ^

I think a lot of our fans base their expectations off the OSU and Bamas of the world. So then they are let down when things dont happen. This young team is damn close to being real good. We need to support our team and coaches to the fullest. Beat OSU!

Joined: 02/28/2013

MGoPoints: 3407

llandson

November 19th, 2017 at 9:57 AM ^

I'm curious why I shouldn't expect the same as OSU and Alabama? Best public school in the country; equally, if not more, storied college football program in the history of the game; obviously one of the best and biggest stadiums to play in; we pay our coaching staff just as much. 

 

Joined: 08/27/2013

MGoPoints: 891

Ty Butterfield

November 19th, 2017 at 8:13 AM ^

The game with OSU is not a rivalry and has not been for a long time. I don’t know why they waste their time on Michigan Monday. Will probably be like 2009 with a lot of red in the stadium. I can’t blame anyone who sells their tickets this year. Michigan has no chance and it will be another embarrassing failure.

Joined: 09/07/2009

MGoPoints: -81685

SpikeFan2016

November 19th, 2017 at 8:58 AM ^

We played 1-2 less games per year until very recently, and also non-conference schedules were much harder and all against P5 teams back in the day. 

 

You cannot compare raw data without context. This post is bad. 

Joined: 04/03/2015

MGoPoints: 6659

Wolvie3758

November 19th, 2017 at 12:31 PM ^

but not being able to win a BIG game is a alarming trend..were about to be 1-7 in the last 2 years in meaningful big games

Joined: 12/12/2010

MGoPoints: 6338