2023 preseason expectations B1G
And now for the B1Gest conference of all!
See first comment for image.
Obviously, the strength of the conference is its top 3 teams in the East. Michigan’s average rank edges out Ohio St for the #2 overall ranking in the nation. Penn St falls in not far behind at #7. And then…what a gap! Dropping 29 spots to Maryland and then dropping another 14 spots to MSU at #50. Then another 28 spots down to the dregs: Rutgers & Indiana.
There’s 3 clear tiers in the East…the top three, middling two, and awful two. it will take either a spectacular or miserable season for anybody to end the season in a different tier.
- Michigan has crossover games with Minnesota (35) and Nebraska (60) on the road; Purdue (52) at home.
- Ohio St’s crossovers are Wisconsin (16) and Purdue (52) on the road; Minnesota (35) at home.
- Penn St goes to Illinois (44) and Northwestern (88); Iowa (22) at home. They get Michigan at home but travel to Columbus.
After the top 3 in the East, the West has 6 of the next 8, in typical West Division hodgepodge formation, led by Wisconsin and their primary challenger Iowa. Which B1G team is most likely to arise from mediocrity and contend for the division title? Last year it was Purdue & Illinois.
And then there’s the bottom 3. Northwestern was already considered the worst team in the conference before anything Fitzgerald-related broke, so they could be even worse.
FYI, the 2024 west coast newcomers rank 5 (USC), 9 (U-dub), 15 (Oregon), and 23 (University of California at Los Angeles). The group certainly appears to bring a much stronger B1G presence to the top 25 (from five top-25 teams to nine).
Prior threads:
To all players numbered 0 to 99, please take the season one game at a time…
Captain Obvious
If the Fickell badgers knock off ohio state... and then they fall for the third consecutive season to Michigan..... pitchforks will be hard to find in stores around columbus.
Wisconsin isn't beating OSU. Wisconsin is getting WAY too much preseason hype.
I wouldn’t favor Wisconsin in their game against OSU, but - I wouldn’t write them off either. They play in Camp Randall the week after the Bucks host Penn State.
Camp Randall - essentially Halloween weekend - could have a surprise or two. And, if any current head coach understands the Buckeyes, it’s Fickell.
Fickell and M. Tressel
fielding a qb that never started a college game before this year, coming off a stretch at ND, MD at home, at Purdue, PSU at home and then going to WS....
I think ohio state is going to have a much tougher season than they have in a long time. I wouldn't be surprised for them to come into A2 with a loss on their record.
Ohio State is also fielding a QB who has never started a college game? And, can OSU stop the run?
Gebbia the transfer from Oregon State is the only Qb on their roster that's started a game and he's believed to be 3rd string. McCord got 2nd team snaps in garbage time the last two seasons and Brown I don't think ever got in a game.
Every time I see the board jam pile on the same thinking I try to bet the other way. Ive got a thinking Wisconsin is going to be even better than what the polls/sites are projecting. the same stout defense with a Purdue like ability to score? That is a recipe for upsets. Im hoping on the Badge train. We shall see.
PSU more likely than Wisconsin but I agree would be awesome
I expect Illinois to put a good defense on the field, and they have a favorable schedule: avoid both OSU and M, get Wisconsin at home, and their rivalry game against Northwestern should be a cake walk. So I like their chances in the BIG West. Gonna be ugly though, whoever wins it.
I think Illinois could take it as well, thanks to a potent defense, but I suspect Wisconsin will be the cream of the crop over there. Improved coaching. More creative offense. Wisky doesn't currently have the players to consistently beat the top teams in the East. But it has as much talent as anyone in the West. And I bet Fickell injects that team with more energy.
Well, you're probably right.
Still, if Wisconsin has more talent than Illinois it is by a very marginal amount. I wouldn't be surprised in the Illinois-Wisconsin game is the de facto west championship. And you don't just walk into (check notes) Champaign-Urbana and get the W...
I just hope its like last year where all the teams had a shot at winning into November... Including NW, which would have finished 4-8.
"We got Michigan and Ohio State right where we want 'em: off the schedule."
– Indiana coach Lee Corso
I think Illinois' "success" last year was quite a mirage. They beat an FCS team (Chattanooga), a 7-6 Group of 5 team (Wyoming), the worst team in the ACC (Virginia), worst team in the Big Ten (Northwestern), two teams that were so bad they fired their coaches (Wisconsin, Nebraska), the team with the worst offense in America (Iowa), and Minnesota.
Honestly, I think Minnesota is their only decent win, and they still managed to lose to two B1G East bottom-dwellers (Indiana, MSU.)
That list of wins is indeed over an unimpressive set of teams.
But that list of wins is over every other contender in the BIG West, so.... all it means is that the BIG West was bad and Illinois beat them. Repeat, and they win the west again.
(I don't think anyone here is arguing that Illinois is good outside of the BIG West, are they?)
I agree with that overall, but they did come obnoxiously close to beating us.
I hope not. Really hate Bert and wish nothing but the worst for him. F*** that guy.
Wisconsin's fortunes this season depend almost entirely on their ability to incorporate a completely new offensive scheme when most of the roster was recruited for a more traditional run-first scheme. I'm bullish on their prospects in coming years but dubious about them making the transition successfully enough this season to win the West.
I like what Bielema is doing at Illinois but personally I think Iowa will be the team to beat in the West. Cade will settle the offense, they will run the ball like always, and convert more 3rd downs than last year. Yes I know the OC is still a problem but with their defense and special teams they don't need to score 40 points per game.
As for the East I think we're the hungriest team and likely to go undefeated in conference if we stay healthy. Go Blue!
I don't think the offense is going to work in Wisconsin. Their history and recruiting strengths go completely against a spread offense. This could backfire terribly. The defense should be really good but that will only take them so far.
It's a big risk for sure--we know that from the RichRod days. I have a lot more faith in Luke Fickell than I did in RichRod, including his ability to use the talent that he has on hand effectively for a year or two as he gradually incorporates the new offense. But this first season is unlikely to produce sufficient progress to actually win the West.
I personally think this was a fantastic hire by Wisconsin, and as long as Barry Alvarez and the "traditionalists" don't get in Fickell's way, I think Wisconsin could be even better in the long run than they've been over the last 20 years. And that's saying something.
Fickell isn't the same guy who helped OSU limp to that 6-7 record ten years ago. The guy can coach, he knows how to recruit the Midwest, and he may be able to pull some talent out of Ohio in the process. Besides, even if you don't buy all of that, it was clear that Wisconsin was regressing under Chryst. An argument could be made that he deserved another year to right the ship, as he's gotten results there. He just made the wrong bet on the wrong QB. But they let him go so whether or not he should've stayed is moot at this point.
I think Fickell will bring a more "modern" offense to Wisconsin, he should be able to recruit fairly well (can't do any worse than Chryst), and they'll still be strong defensively as that's Fickell's bread and butter. I don't think they're a 10 win team this season, as there will be transition costs, but as long as Fickell doesn't leave whenever the OSU job opens up next (which he might), I think they're in a good spot for a really long time.
The question I have about Fickell is about the claim that OSU was steering recruits Cincinnati’s way when he was there. If true, can he function without that lifeline now?
Fickell has a familiarity with the Big Ten that RichRod did not. I think the offense will be just fine.
Their new OC isn't Mike Leach. Longo did use an Air Raid offense last year but when UNC had two NFL backs (Michael Carter/Javonte Williams) he ran a balanced offense in 19 and 20. I think they'll improve a lot this year with Braelon Allen still having a large role.
I like what Bielema is doing at Illinois but personally I think Iowa will be the team to beat in the West. Cade will settle the offense, they will run the ball like always, and convert more 3rd downs than last year. Yes I know the OC is still a problem but with their defense and special teams they don't need to score 40 points per game.
I just don't see it with Iowa. Any hope for Cade settling the offense is pinned on him playing like he did in 2021, because a repeat of his 2022 performance isn't elevating anything (honestly, this may be a hot take, but I'm not sure Cade's 2022 performance would even be much of an upgrade over Petras). And he's supposedly going to revert to his 2021 form with a porous OL and a lack of playmakers? Not to mention some talk early last year that the book was out on him and his tendencies.
Maybe last year was just a funk from getting passed by JJ, and a change of scenery (and warm welcome) is just what he needs, but it seems like it's asking an awful lot of him given his recent form, in an already poor situation...
Iowa's OL will be improved--they can't go anywhere but up--and it's traditionally an Iowa strength. Lack of playmakers is relative--they obviously don't have the skill players at RB/WR that we do but they don't need them to be as good as ours to win the West.
But to the crux of your point...what exactly went on with Cade last year in the couple of games he played before getting injured? I was at the UConn game and our (first team) OL protected JJ just fine...then Cade comes in and gets blitzkrieged immediately and goes down...it was almost like the OL completely caved for some mysterious reason.
I haven't read/seen anywhere that opponents knew his tendencies so that's an interesting subplot to the story. In any event I think the change of scenery, including a new division, will help Cade immensely. He's absolutely positively the starter here at Iowa, he's already a team leader and has the whole squad behind him. I predict that his confidence will return to 2021 levels and the offense will be much improved. The rest of the West looks pretty iffy to me but who really knows?
Yeah, it's tough to be on the Iowa offense bandwagon, but the reality is that it's waaaay easier to go from 'abject dumbster fire' to 'below average' than it is to go from 'above average' to 'elite.'
All they need is mild competence from the QB spot, *some* growth on the OL and the defense to maintain the general rage they've been and they can jump into being a very good team.
OL protected JJ just fine...then Cade comes in and gets blitzkrieged immediately and goes down...it was almost like the OL completely caved for some mysterious reason.m
IMO, a lot of that has to do with mobility. You can’t just “rush the passer” with JJ in there. He WILL scramble and if necessary he will run the ball. You have to play with a little more contain. With Cade, you didn’t have that. You just tee off and get after him. The difference between playing contain and teeing off could also explain how it appeared that the OL caved. Possibly caught them off-guard. Who knows.
I can’t speak specifically to the tendencies claim, but it is possible Cade has a “tell” in there at QB. Could be something as simple as foot placement prior to the snap tipping run or pass.
It's not a mystery, it's a lot harder to pass pro for a non-mobile QB because you don't have to worry about him scorching you with his legs.
What people aren't talking about as much but should, is that Wisconsin is also changing their defensive scheme from the 3-4 that they've ran forever to more of a 3-3-5 stack.
Depending on how exactly they go about that, it really isn’t much of a change from their 3-4. 5 true defensive backs and it’s a different story, but more of a HSP and it can function similarly as the 3-4.
Based on Alex Drain's previews, Maryland at least seems dangerous. I doubt anyone from the West finishes higher than 15 or so nationally. OSU definitely has the hardest conference schedule of us PSU and OSU given their historical issues with Purdue. Still, the East should just come down to head-to-head PSU, OSU, UM.
Based on Alex Drain's previews, Maryland at least seems dangerous.
Although, Alex has only covered offensive skill positions, which is Maryland's bread & butter. Let's see what the rest looks like.
Still enough to make them dangerous if you spot them a pick six or similar and it turns into a shoot out.
I'm going with Iowa in the West. They haven't had a losing season in over a decade. They return some talent on defense and Cade will limit turnovers to keep them in games. Illinois is probably another solid option. Too many unknowns with Wiscy, Minnesota, Nebraska and Purdue.
Same story, new year: whoever wins The Game, almost certainly wins the conference. Whoever wins the West is just a sacrificial lamb. Its honestly a freaking insult to send whatever scrub the West trots out to Indy every year.
I don't know if PSU has the horses to win the conference this year. There is talent there, for sure, and I know they're all salivating over their new toy in Drew Allar, but he's still a first year starter, he has to go on the road to OSU, and for what feels like the 15th year in a row, PSU still seems to have an average OL at best. Maybe closer to mediocre or even just, once again, bad. They do get Michigan at home, but its pretty clear who has the advantage in the trenches between those two. And since that won't be a night game, I'd probably favor Michigan in that game if it were played today.
Ah, the annual look at projections in the divisions of the BiG - a constant reminder of the poor leadership that chose to cluster the conference's three most traditional powers together in an effort to improve the playoff prospects...of the SEC.
Looking forward to the announcement of a return to divisions in 2024:
Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, USC, Washington, UCLA, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Oregon all in the Northeasterlywestern division.
The East setup is better than the Legends/Leaders nonsense where we played OSU every year and our division rivals didn’t. Splitting up rivalries just to have “balanced” divisions is a fool’s errand.
First thing I thought when looking at these are that MSU is too high and Illinois is too low...
I would favor #36 Maryland over #16 Wisconsin, #22 Iowa, and #35 Minnesota. It's one more reminder that the "rankings" have a lot of bias about expected outcomes, and say very little about the sequence of teams from best to worst.
Maryland will probably finish with a better record than one of those teams but I think all three are more talented than Maryland. The Terps have to replace their entire O and D lines and we know what happens to them after September.
I think Minnesota will prove to be the best team in the West, but it won't matter because of their schedule - having to play both Ohio State and Michigan in the same year as crossovers, yeah that's not going to help their cause.
Minnie is going to be jacked when we go up there. We will have to be ready. 
Northwestern will have another very poor season. The West will be wild once again - Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota in the fray - with first year coaches at Purdue and Nebraska. It will be very interesting to see the Huskers under Ruhle. The Illini will be very fun to watch - Bielema will build on last season’s success.
The East will be the usual dogfight - and, a few games will stand out. Obviously, The Game - and Michigan and OSU vs PSU. I can’t see other East teams upsetting any of those three - and I also wonder how inexpensive tickets will be for Michigan’s visit to EL. So, the bottom of the East will have a bit of drama too… how many L’s are really in Mel?
I’m not so high on PSU. Very good D likely but a new QB and weak receiver group may make their offense one dimensional. Doesn’t look like they’ll be explosive.
5 star consensus #1 QB in last years class.
Really good 1-2 punch at running back.
I agree it will probably be another lose to the Big 2 season but understand the hype.
You deserve the Heisman for putting all these together.
and a rose
You just made me use bad language.