2023 ESPN Preseason SP+ Rankings: Michigan 3rd
ESPN+ content: https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/35651872/2023-college-football-rankings-every-team
Bill Connelly posted his preseason SP+ rankings for 2023 and Michigan is 3rd behind Georgia and Ohio State. Takes into account returning production, recent recruiting, and recent history to build out projections for the upcoming year.
Notable overall and offense/defense rankings below:
1. Georgia (6 offense, 2 defense)
2. Ohio State (1 O, 10 D)
3. Michigan (8 O, 4 D)
4. Alabama (5 O, 9 D)
5. Penn State (21 O, 5 D)
25. Wisconsin (46 O, 11 D)
27. Iowa (81 O lol Brian Ferentz, 1 D)
30. Minnesota (61 O, 7 D)
47. Michigan State (48 O, 47 D)
February 14th, 2023 at 8:39 AM ^
A little surprised that Ohio State's offense is projected #1 while replacing Stroud, Smith-Njigba, and three starting linemen but I guess recruiting like golden gods has its benefits.
February 14th, 2023 at 8:41 AM ^
I'll take JJ, Blake, Donovan, and the returning production on our O Line over a bunch of unproven high school talent any day, but that's just me.
February 14th, 2023 at 10:53 AM ^
Exactly. The idea that their quarterback is automatically going to be Heisman caliber is ridiculous. You can only hit the lotto so many times. Not all five stars pan out.
February 14th, 2023 at 1:16 PM ^
Michigan on November 25...
February 14th, 2023 at 8:51 AM ^
Advanced stats are great, especially SP+, but at this point, this is really just guess work. No way OSU loses that much and should still be projected to be #1 based on kids that have hardly seen the field, especially when replacing the QB.
February 14th, 2023 at 9:30 AM ^
Its basically the opposite of guess work. That doesn't mean its always right or without its flaws but there are lots of reasons to think OSU will have the best offense in the country next year
February 14th, 2023 at 9:52 AM ^
I get that there is a statistical method here, but bad data in leads to bad data out. Statistics are best when there is a track record to base future predictions off of which is why there is so much volatility in SP+ the first 5-6 weeks of the season as the off season stuff falls out of the modeling and on field production takes it place.
February 14th, 2023 at 10:09 AM ^
The biggest variable - which really impacts any "performance" type ratings - is the roster.
And, there's a huge difference, IMO, between roster "stability" between the NFL and college football. A college roster will "turn" completely in five years - most likely to a major degree in three or four. The NFL doesn't face that issue.
The first year starters, or "new" players to the roster who will be playing a great deal are essentially unknown.
February 14th, 2023 at 12:03 PM ^
I agree roster is always important. I think systems play a bigger role in college than they do in the NFL. You can have sustained success in college because of a particular offensive system. Success being relative to the overall program. This allows for larger variability in the allowable talent. I.e. a high 3 star or low 4 star QB will probably put up bigger passing numbers in OSU's offense, than a 5 star will in Michigan's offense. It doesn't mean one QB is better than the other, or determine which team will win, but at the end of the season one team will have better offensive statistics than the other and can consistently do so with more variable talent.
February 14th, 2023 at 1:12 PM ^
There is actually not that much volatility in the first 5-6 seasons specifically because he modeled that the system is more accurate to keep pre-season components in rather than having the data overreact to the small sample sizes of early season games. SP+ isn't bad data in at all. Its data specifically chosen after modeling millions of seasons to see what is most predictive.
Just because people don't understand it or ignore what it says or is meant to do doesn't make it bad
February 15th, 2023 at 8:18 AM ^
Its data specifically chosen after modeling millions of seasons
It would take 130 fbs teams 7,692 years to produce one million seasons worth of data. I don't think your understanding is perfect either
February 14th, 2023 at 12:17 PM ^
there are lots of reasons to think OSU will have the best offense in the country next year
Dude, even OSU fans don’t think that will be the case.
Some of you have a cult-like obsession with these stats. Until midseason, at least, they’re largely useless.
February 14th, 2023 at 10:07 AM ^
Sure there's always that possibility they don't get people to step up, but teams like OSU, Georgia, and Alabama are usually quite low on his returning experience metric and they still always end up basically top 5. Is it a guess? I mean sure in some sense, but it's an educated one. I wouldn't count on OSU taking a step back this year.
February 14th, 2023 at 11:19 AM ^
I think it’s a safe assumption, and more in line with the mean, for a team that loses Heisman caliber players to not be able to replace Heisman caliber play with fresh faces. They may still be better than most, but it’s fair to say that QB play should be slightly less impressive at OSU next season, particularly early while McCord gets his feet under him.
The problem for OSU in particular, is that the fans, media, and probably their own locker room will have very little patience if that slight regression makes it mark by way of a loss. It could snowball early for them if they drop a game like Maryland or Penn State in October.
February 14th, 2023 at 12:27 PM ^
You're right in that Ryan Day could lose that locker room with a loss or two. However, they still clearly have a Heisman caliber player. But, I'm pretty convinced that their DC is their weak link. If they can't coach up a better secondary, they're going to lose 2-3 games next year.
February 14th, 2023 at 1:18 PM ^
Except for the part where over the last half decade OSU has gotten more efficient going from JT to Haskins and then from Haskins to Stroud. Of course there is a chance of fall off, nobody is arguing this will get every team right. The value of SP+ is that over 128 teams using these metrics is going to be more accurate on average than people just saying who they think is best.
February 14th, 2023 at 3:44 PM ^
Exactly. Do people really think this is the first time a team loaded with talent every year lost a bunch of guys? It's literally like this every year for programs like Osu, Bama, Georgia. Could there be a big drop off at QB for Osu? Sure. I hope so. But not banking on it just because it's a new starter. Whoever starts will be surrounded by loads of talent.
February 14th, 2023 at 5:14 PM ^
Who's old enough to remember Peyton Manning leaving UT having never won an SEC title, and suddenly, the very next year, Mr. nobody Tee Martin, right out of the wrapping paper onto the field, leads them to a national title? Now, as much as OSU leans on the passing game, and Ryan Day doesn't seem like he really knows how to coach anything else, I'd say that seems unlikely, unless the guy waiting turns out to be incredible.
February 14th, 2023 at 7:44 PM ^
I'd be pretty shocked if OSU isn't 11-0 going into the Michigan game.
PSU simply doesn't win in the Horseshoe. And Maryland --- I'm not sure Maryland will beat Ohio State even once before I die. Much less in Columbus, the site of this year's game.
February 14th, 2023 at 12:25 PM ^
I think the article writers were completely accurate in their goal, which was to get clicks.
February 14th, 2023 at 9:18 AM ^
Laser, I hope when the pre-season polls are released that the squads in Columbus and Happy Valley are ranked above the Wolverines. Just more fuel for the fire.
Go Blue!
February 15th, 2023 at 9:14 AM ^
complete bullshit, ohio state doesn't even know who their qb is going to be, they have a new OC who's never been an OC before... they will finish third in the B1G East next year behind Michigan and Penn State.
February 14th, 2023 at 8:41 AM ^
Yeah, are those last year's rankings?
Iowa loses quite a bit on defense, I would not expect them to be ranked 1st.
February 14th, 2023 at 9:27 AM ^
and yet there's no way their offense could have been ranked that high last year....mysterious.
February 14th, 2023 at 9:05 AM ^
Damn B1G East with 3 of the top 5 is crrraaaaazy
February 14th, 2023 at 9:53 AM ^
Especially since no one wants to play in the cold, right.
And...this is an ESPN article..isn't speaking highly about any conference not named SEC against policy.
February 14th, 2023 at 11:22 AM ^
Must still be sleepy here on the West Coast - I glanced and saw “3 Big East teams in the top 5, before I realized it was B1G East and not Big East. Oh well, back to sleep.
February 14th, 2023 at 12:29 PM ^
Frames Janklin is not about to take a new QB and be a top 5 team. That just doesn't compute.
February 14th, 2023 at 2:25 PM ^
PSU finished in the Top 10 in both 2016 & 2019, seasons where (1) Franklin was the coach, (2) Franklin was the coach the preceding season, (3) they didn't finish in the Top 10 the prior season, and (4) they were starting a new QB (McSorley and Clifford respectively).
It's not completely ridiculous - there is some precedence.
February 14th, 2023 at 9:06 AM ^
Three B1G teams in the top five. And, all three in the same division of the conference.
It would seem a lot of eyes will track how those teams perform. And, to no one’s surprise - Michigan’s games against Penn State (which I assume will be a night game White Out), and the season finale against the Buckeyes - are the most challenging games on the schedule.
February 14th, 2023 at 9:23 AM ^
Luckily the game is November 11–after daylight savings so I believe both teams have to agree to a night game which Michigan will not do.
February 14th, 2023 at 9:40 AM ^
Freak, when it comes to ratings.. and the new media agreement.. hmmm.
It looks like the only other White Out option for PSU is when they host Iowa in September.
February 14th, 2023 at 9:52 AM ^
I had thought that we were going to be adopting "permanent" daylight savings time this year, but just found out the bill, after passing in the Senate last year, has stalled (surprise, surprise!) in the US House of Representatives.
February 14th, 2023 at 2:03 PM ^
We have a new congress this January. The bill needs to go back to square 1 and pass both the senate and house in the same congress. So if it died in the House, it died because nothing happened last year.
February 14th, 2023 at 11:57 PM ^
Permanent daylight savings would be a mess. Grand Rapids would have sunrise after 8 am from mid October to mid March, and after 9 am for most of December and January. I walked to school starting in 3rd grade, and it seems pretty ridiculous to send an 8 year old walking to school well over an hour before sunrise.
February 14th, 2023 at 10:08 AM ^
The Penn State game will be at noon. Fox still gets first pick for Big Noon Saturday and they will always take the UM/OSU/PSU H2H matchups for the forseeable future
February 14th, 2023 at 12:39 PM ^
That's not how the current contract works. The contract is split between FOX and ESPN, and ABC/ESPN will have their share of weekends where they get the first pick of games. FOX has the first pick of weekends every year though, and that is why The Game is on FOX every year.
PSU-Michigan has actually been on ABC/ESPN most years during this current deal. Last year was unusual because the ND-OSU game was in the Big Ten inventory so ESPN probably used one of their top picks on that game.
February 14th, 2023 at 9:18 AM ^
These O/D ranking obviously don't take into account coaching, development, heart, desire Charmin-level softness or even 45-23.
February 14th, 2023 at 9:43 AM ^
SJB, I totally agree, and am happy to get any additional motivation, from any source, available.
The only residual impact to me is - the visibility to prospects in other parts of the country. And, that would seem to be something to leverage or capitalize on, whenever possible.
February 14th, 2023 at 9:18 AM ^
If recent history continues, it won't be shocking to see whoever OSU's QB is this year throw for 4,000+ yards. I just hope that they have the same game attitude as CJ when he plays against Michigan.
February 14th, 2023 at 9:22 AM ^
I haven’t checked out the Farmers Almanac, but it makes me wonder what the weather prediction is for Saturday November 25th in Ann Arbor.
February 14th, 2023 at 11:46 AM ^
If I know Ohio State, they will steamroll their schedule with little resistance. We'll hear their fans chirp all season long about how the new QB (forget his name) is an obvious improvement over Stroud, and all the kinks have been ironed out from the previous year.
Then in November we'll beat them again and they'll be left scratching their heads.
February 14th, 2023 at 9:30 AM ^
One of these qbs for OSU finally has to be a bust.
February 14th, 2023 at 10:11 AM ^
I’m afraid it was Tate Martell.
I’m just hoping for a drop off because if one is a bust their backup is just as highly ranked.
February 14th, 2023 at 12:46 PM ^
Or OSU will just hit the portal and get a transfer like Justin Fields. That is kind of where I am--hope there is dropoff where the next QB room is just good, and not NFL good.
February 14th, 2023 at 9:53 AM ^
The final 2022 SP+ preseason ranking top 10 with final 2022 post-season in parenthesis
1. Alabama (2)
2. Georgia (1)
3. OSU (4)
4. Oklahoma (20)
5. Clemson (14)
6. Michigan (3)
7. Notre Dame (37)
8. Texas A&M (35)
9. Ole Miss (18)
10. Tennessee (5)
So seems like it's usually pretty good at the top, getting 4 of top 6 and 5 of the top 10 correct.
February 14th, 2023 at 10:12 AM ^
Does this mean that Saban and the Bama faithful will claim a 2022 SP+ National Championship?
February 14th, 2023 at 11:48 AM ^
WhO WoUlD Be fAvOrEd
February 14th, 2023 at 10:08 AM ^
So we need to pound OSU again to get people to understand.
February 14th, 2023 at 12:12 PM ^
I don’t think it matters how many times we beat them in a row. These preseason things are based heavily on how many STARZZZ are on your roster. OSU will likely have a heavy lock on that for a while.