2021's 10-1 vs. 2016, 2018, etc.
I don’t know about everyone else but I’ve had some trouble stepping back and realizing how awesome this season has been so far. 2016 and 2018 I was 100% pumped for each game and this year I’ve been a bit more guarded for obvious historical reasons BUT in many ways this has been an even better year than those (aside from the one obvious black eye). So at least until Ohio hate week officially starts I thought I’d post some highlights where this year may have been Harbaugh’s best so far.
- Michigan dominated inferior opponents.
This year Michigan is 8-2 against the spread as a favorite. Other than MSU and Rutgers we outscored our opposition more than predicted. 2016 had a lot of blowouts but of course we lost to Iowa and surprisingly Harbaugh was actually 5-7 against the spread as favorite that year. In fact Harbaugh's record against the spread as favorite at Michigan is 27-26-1 excluding 2020 which would make that number even worse.
2. Michigan won big away games
This was our first win at Camp Randall under Harbaugh. We were 0-2 there and 2-3 overall against Wisconsin since Harbaugh was hired. AND this was our first win in Happy Valley since 2015. We were 1-2 there and 3-3 against PSU with Harbaugh. Also the night game at Nebraska could have been similar to 2016 Iowa but we found a way to win this one.
3. Michigan came back against good teams
We won the aforementioned Nebraska game, the Wisconsin game and Penn State all after falling behind. This team showed fight. I would say the Nebraska and Penn State comebacks were more impressive than others I could remember from Michigan.
Pretty damn good for a team that probably had the lowest preseason expectations of any other Harbaugh teams.
That said: I’m all the way back in and ready to watch the team be legendary next week.
November 20th, 2021 at 11:50 PM ^
[facepalm] We were never behind in the Wisconsin game but it still felt like they had the momentum after they made it 13-10.
November 20th, 2021 at 11:55 PM ^
This has to be one of the most significant Michigan vs OSU games played. I can only think of a few times when both teams have been ranked this highly. So much at stake for both teams.
November 21st, 2021 at 12:03 AM ^
2018, 2016, 2006. The last 3 times it’s happened in the past 15 years with Big Ten title implications. First time the game is in AA though so let’s hope the result is different this time than those last 3 games
November 21st, 2021 at 1:56 AM ^
2007 was for the Big Ten title as well. But I don’t think we were ranked in the Top 5. Maybe around 10 or 12.
November 21st, 2021 at 9:36 AM ^
And we came in with a QB with a bad shoulder and a botched cortisone shot. Because, Michigan.
November 21st, 2021 at 12:10 AM ^
Sadly feels that way.
November 21st, 2021 at 7:47 AM ^
I'm gonna need a lot of Braveheart gifs to get me through this week LOL
November 21st, 2021 at 12:01 AM ^
We are absolutely going to destroy these mother fuckers
November 21st, 2021 at 12:03 AM ^
2016 felt the best.
1) It was year 2 of Harbaugh and it was what we were expecting when he was hired. We were suddenly contenders and the future looked beyond bright.
2) Although we were beat bad by Ohio State in 2015, it wasn’t quite the same feeling as following the 2018/2019 games where you realized that Ohio State’s offense had become a different animal.
3) I trusted our defense a lot more. Statistically this defense has been good and they have 2-3 1st rders, but you see the holes and vulnerability that a good offense can and unfortunately will expose.
This year, especially following the disaster that was last year, has been very refreshing. Really proud of the program for turning it around. But next week is likely not going to be pretty. In 2016 I felt we had a chance against Ohio State. I can’t tell you with a straight face that we do this year. I would love to be wrong. But what’s likely to happen is that we again don’t make the B1G title game and we lose to both our rivals. And yet it will still be a positive from the standpoint of it getting back on the tracks this year.
November 21st, 2021 at 12:14 AM ^
Of course there's a chance. Ken Massey gives Michigan a 45% chance to win. ESPN FPI gives them a 35% chance to win. Sagarin doesn't give percentage chances, but eyeballing it, it looks like OSU would be about a 5.5 point favorite in his system, which is in the 30-35% chance range.
Nobody is saying that Michigan is favored. But the idea that the outcome is preordained is silly. Do you really think that MSU had better than a 30% chance to beat Michigan?
An OSU fan asked me today why I was going to The Game, and if I really thought Michigan would win. I said that OSU would probably win, but that eventually things had to go Michigan's way, and if this is the year, then I want to be there. And isn't that what being a sports fan is about?
November 21st, 2021 at 1:38 AM ^
I mean there’s a chance in a literal sense. I just meant I don’t see it as a realistic chance. Michigan’s defense is vulnerable to good offenses. Ohio State doesn’t have a good offense. They have a great offense. They potentially have 1st rders and future 1st rders at QB, RB, all 3 WRs, and on the OLine. Then you add the tempo they can play with and I just don’t see how Michigan can realistically expect to contain them. Even with our stud DEs, Ohio State can likely use the quick pass game effectively enough to negate much of that.
I think if these two teams were to play 10 times right now, Ohio State probably wins at least 9 of them. That’s not because I think Michigan is bad by any means, but because Ohio State is simply a different animal and it’s a bad matchup. Do I think it’ll be exactly like what we just seen from MSU vs them? No. At least I hope not. But no. I don’t think Michigan has much of a chance. Certainly not a 45% chance let alone a 30% chance.
Again, no one would be happier of me being dead wrong on this than me. I beg of it. But I just call it how I see it. To be fair, I thought we’d lose at Wisconsin this year as well so I’ve been wrong before and will happily be wrong again eventually.
But it goes back to the main OP, I don’t feel anywhere like I did leading up into the game compared to 2016. The two teams seemed on equal footing in 2016, not so much right now. Also, weren’t the scoring margins vs like competition much closer in 2016 vs now? It’s not the same to me.
November 21st, 2021 at 9:08 AM ^
We have to control the line of scrimmage and win time of possession. OSU is going to score points, but if we can deny their offense the ball, then we’ll have a chance. We go 3 and out multiple times, then it’s going to be a long day.
November 21st, 2021 at 9:57 AM ^
Ferris, if you want to be taken seriously you should never have these words in this sequence in a post:
"... win time of possession ..."
"... deny their offense the ball ..."
November 21st, 2021 at 1:48 PM ^
It made perfect sense in the context of his sentence to mention it
November 21st, 2021 at 10:01 AM ^
100% this. The offense absolutely has to possess the ball on most of its drives. Make at least two or three first downs and take time off the clock. Scoring a TD on most drives would be welcome and likely necessary.
November 21st, 2021 at 7:32 AM ^
Bought tickets to the game after Western Michigan thinking the team just seemed different and if they were to win I would regret not being there.
I’m allowing myself to believe again because we’re playing with house money. It’s been a great season no matter what and yes one of these years M will play their best and OSU will make more mistakes. Hoping it’s this year - Harbaugh is owed some good karma!
November 21st, 2021 at 1:31 AM ^
Oregon, PSU and Nebraska all slowed down this offense. Stroud gets rattled with pressure and he looks lost when he has to scramble. PSU has a legit secondary that we don't have and Oregon was early in the year. I would focus on the Nebraska game, where they were able to flush him out of the pocket and force bad reads/throws, including two picks that were all on Stroud. He still doesn't do well when a play breaks down and he has to improvise. The front four and the LBs will need to have the game of their lives because our secondary obviously can't hold up and our offense wouldn't be able to keep up in a shootout. I suspect they will come out and try to run the ball a little bit to soften up the coverage, so the LB play will be key. If they can run the ball, then I don't see any way we stop them.
November 21st, 2021 at 10:22 AM ^
We had a great team in 2016 but we didn’t know if Speight would play. John O’Korn started the IU game and had a typically rough outing. Speight’s status was a huge cause of worry.
The frustrating thing is that he played through the injury and made his share of plays but had those three turnovers that, coupled with some home cooking, was enough to prevent us from winning in regulation.
In 2018 I felt very confident. Shea was healthy and the team was on a 10-game winning streak. Winovich was banged up but was going to play. OSU had just survived a huge scare against Maryland. (A Maryland win would have clinched us the East. Ugh.) My main concern was that it was in Columbus.
November 21st, 2021 at 12:12 AM ^
I believe that pre Speight injury, the 2016 team was the best team Michigan has had in the modern era
November 21st, 2021 at 12:25 AM ^
Modern as in post-Carr, or modern as in past 60 years? 1997 had everything.
November 21st, 2021 at 12:34 AM ^
Must be post-Carr. Arguments can be made about 2006, but it was pretty close; but then you have '99, '97, and then the Bo and Mo years going backward.
November 21st, 2021 at 12:19 AM ^
I feel better about this year because we are
a) at home; unlike those even-numbered years when we peaked
b) have a healthy QB (unlike '16) and healthy rush ends (unlike '18)
November 21st, 2021 at 12:26 AM ^
I feel worse about this year because I'm experienced and this OSU team looks better than 16 or 18.
But the two reasons you feel better are non-trivial reasons. Our last two "peak" years took us to OSU, which is tough even if there is roster and coaching parity, and the health problems were real and impacted the game.
November 21st, 2021 at 12:30 AM ^
We always think our ends will make a difference, and OSU just gets the ball out quickly. I don't think rush ends really bother their scheme. You need an interior line that can push them out of the pocket and shut down the runs up the gut. I think a Hurst or Glasgow is more effective than a Hutch/Ojabo/Gary/Winovich, unfortunately.
November 21st, 2021 at 3:40 AM ^
Maybe, but Hutch pushes the pocket in from the edge in a way that past DEs could not
November 21st, 2021 at 6:41 AM ^
I think this is the first year of zone defense. I know people feel like we don't have secondary to compete against their WRs, but I think our secondary is fine. MSU and PSU had to hit miraculous shots to keep up or take the lead. If we can keep the game close to 4th quarter, I expect us to have rattled Stroud enough by then.
November 21st, 2021 at 12:30 AM ^
The best part is the current team has leadership just like 2016, hungry, talented players who stayed even thru bad years, but they also have the offensive firepower of 2018.
This time, however, it's at the big house and UofM has much more talent than in 2018.
GoBlue!
November 21st, 2021 at 12:38 AM ^
This is the best year under Harbaugh. No it wasn't 2016 where Michigan barely beat Wiscy at home. Lost to Iowa badly.
This year loss was a ref job
November 21st, 2021 at 1:02 AM ^
They lost to Iowa on the road by a point on a last second field goal
November 21st, 2021 at 1:09 AM ^
Sure but it was unexpected. Also the offense wasn't as explosive as this year's offense. Check Michigan's offensive stats they keep improving.
November 21st, 2021 at 6:43 AM ^
We played Iowa's gameplay but not ours. That was not a good display of football offensively.
November 21st, 2021 at 10:24 AM ^
Wisconsin had a good team that year and we outplayed them considerably, but went 0-3 on field goals. Don’t take Moody for granted!
November 21st, 2021 at 12:39 AM ^
I've been looking at stats that compare different team-years. SP+ only goes back so far. But according to "simple rating system" at College Football Reference, here are Michigan's dozen best teams since the '97 National Champs:
1997: 20.14
2016: 17.56
1999: 16.77
2006: 16.66
2018: 16.47
2015: 16.34
2011: 16.27
2003: 16.10
2019: 15.50
2005: 14.86
2017 & 2002: 13.44
The 2021 squad currently sits (not including this week's games) at ... 20.17
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/michigan/
Ohio State's SRS, before today, was at 20.19. Pretty much dead even. They are a step down from last year (21.37) and from 2019's absurd 27.39 (their third best team ever, behind 1944 and 1973).
MSU, *before* today, was at 15.92 -- good, but certainly not great.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/ohio-state/
By this measure -- which includes strength of schedule -- Harbaugh's Michigan teams look pretty good, as not every coach is facing the same Big Ten, the same schedule, the same OSU/MSU/etc. The problem of course is that, particularly since 2014, OSU is on a historically elite run.
See the full list of SRS:
November 21st, 2021 at 1:09 PM ^
p.s. updated SRS for Big Ten teams through yesterday (with new AP rankings not yet out) -
Michigan now at 20.20, OSU at 21.75, MSU at 14.19
November 21st, 2021 at 1:34 AM ^
BPONE has put many of us in a place where we can't fully appreciate this team, but we should try. You can go back to Bo's teams, Moeller's teams, Carr's teams, etc. This ranks up with the best. It is special and we should enjoy it. I experienced some of those earlier teams and took it for granted. I'm not this time.
That said, OSU is in another universe over the past few years and has the superior talent. I don't EXPECT to win next week. But, I think we can and it's more than a puncher's chance. Bo's first season he beat arguably the best team Woody ever had. It can be done.
If we do, it will be epic and inspire a new generation of fandom.
If we don't and end up 10-2 and go the Rose Bowl, I'm OK with that too. I will be proud of what this team accomplished, the way they did it, and be glad to be a Michigan fan.
November 21st, 2021 at 2:11 AM ^
Personally I think this is a better team than the revenge tour team. I would absolutely take our qb now over Patterson. This defensive scheme and DC vs Don Brown who got us obliterated by Osu. McDonald has done an outstanding job as a first year DC outside of the mSu game where he didn't have substitution figured out, seems to have a much better handle on that now. Gattis is doing a much better job I think also. I really liked Winovich he was just a great kid, but this defense now plays really well together and even with some deficiencies the DC is putting them in situations to succeed. McNamara, even though his numbers aren't astronomical he makes good decisions and doesn't put them in bad positions often. GO BLUE beat osu!!!
November 21st, 2021 at 2:24 AM ^
Correct me if I’m wrong, but i think this is the first time since 1997 that Michigan enters the Game with 0 or 1 loss AND the Game is in A2.
November 21st, 2021 at 8:55 AM ^
You are correct.
Looking back to the revival of the program under Schembechler:
In 1971, 1973, 1977, 1985, 1989, and 1991, Michigan entered the OSU game with one or fewer losses and played OSU in Ann Arbor.
'73 was the only game we didn't win.
Caveat: the '73 and '77 OSU teams were the only ones in that group that were ranked in the top 10.
November 21st, 2021 at 4:32 AM ^
2016: All year I thought we were better than OSU (we were). After Speight’s injury I gave us a 55-45 odds to win. Turns out the Refs were worth 11%
2018: I was confident we would win. We had won 10 in a row, OSU got blasted by Purdue and was a 2 pt conversion away from losing to Maryland the week before.
2021: I don’t go into this game thinking our team is better than 16 and 18, and I think OSU is better than both of those teams. However, I just have a feeling we can pull it off but we have to play a perfect game. We don’t turn the ball over already so that’s basically the expectation. We have to force turnovers and Hutch and Ojabo need to get pressure early and often. Harbaugh knows this is his chance. He went into this year on the hot seat and here he is. One game away (this time at home) from Indy and the CFP. The Edwards emergence is huge and if Corum is good to go, we have 3 backs who can each do something unique and special. We don’t have a game changer as a pass catcher but we have a lot of solid options. We need to jump out to a lead. A bounce or two has to go our way.
If we win, Harbaugh’s issues are null, and we are back.
Despite all of that, just think guys, we got embarrassed by Wisconsin at home last year and needed 3 OTs to beat Rutgers and lost to IU. And here we are, a year later, 10-1 winning in Madison, Lincoln, and Happy Valley, and we are a win away from pulling off what we all thought was the impossible.
November 21st, 2021 at 5:33 AM ^
The 2016 team seemed like it could be a contender, because that defense felt like it could stop anybody, and the offense was good enough.
This year's team is better on offense (and trending up!), but much worse on defense, and overall has more obvious flaws.
Just as the 2016 team would have loved to import a QB like Cade (minimizes turnovers, accuracy even deep down the field, might not be able to go superhuman and drag a team to victory, but can lead one there, and won't drag a team to a loss), importing Willie Henry and Mo Hurst onto this team could make it legendary.
Either way, while I don't expect the team to be favored against OSU, I suspect the betting odds will give Michigan something like a 1/4 chance to win. That is far, far better than I would have thought before the season. Coach Harbaugh and the staff have done an excellent job to drag the team back from the abyss and build a team that doesn't beat itself. We might still get out-athleted (and sadly, not having 3 NFL CBs makes this matchup all the harder), and OSU might still gut us up the middle, but I have confidence that if it can be done, this staff and this team can find the way to do it.
Go Blue!
November 21st, 2021 at 5:58 AM ^
Solid post. This year has been a delightful surprise for me. Specifically, Cade has impressed me as a truly reliable game manager. Even when he’s been a bit cold to start a game, he warms up, hits passes, and very rarely turns the ball over.
Oddly, I feel more confidence in Cade playing osu than Speight at the helm in 2016.
November 21st, 2021 at 6:34 AM ^
November 21st, 2021 at 8:41 AM ^
It is refreshing to finally have one of these bigger games at home.
Unfortunately this might be a better overall OSU team than 2006, and while I can appreciate this Michigan team being able to find a way to win, they are overall not as talented as probably any of those other Michigan teams. Talent alone has never won a football game, though.
If Harbaugh can pull off a win here I take back anything bad I ever said about him and he can go winless next year for all I care.
November 21st, 2021 at 11:05 AM ^
This OSU team I would say is closer to 2015-level talent than even their playoff team of 2019.
Offensively they are better than those later JT Barrett-Mike Webber teams
November 21st, 2021 at 8:53 AM ^
Great posts and responses!
My $0.02 says that this game will be as competitive as both 2016 and 2017 were. Who wins? I dunno... But it's going to be close. Where this team shines against 2016 is offense and special teams, and its basically the dull side of tin foil vs the shiny side on defense (you need to look to see the difference).
Offensively, this team has more weapons, more speed, and more ability to win a gut-check than 2016. The RB's are better, faster, and deeper - HH will bludgeon yards, Corum can out race the field, and Edwards' emergence as a pass catcher blows up that whole 'safety in the box thing'. Good luck covering that wheel route with 8 upfront to stop HH... The WRs are so much better than 2016 its not even funny. CJ was featured early - until he dropped another gimme, then he didn't see anymore throws. Wilson has stepped up, and Anthony makes circus catches look normal. Sainristil has also really stepped up. Add Edwards out of the backfield and ALL at TE, and the options are nearly endless. And Cade has shown a LOT of improvement in each game throwing the ball. His passes yesterday were spot on - the wheel TD and the Wilson grab (called back) were outstanding throws.
Defensively, it seems more janky than 2016. Downfield coverage is going to be looser than Hill and Long delivered - zones will always be looser. But there shouldn't be any huge busts leaving guys 10 yards open, like we always see in OSU highlights. Stroud won't have time to wait for those to open up like that, so he'll stay underneath. They're going to make OSU drive the field, like PSU did, and see if they can.
And Michigan's offense is su much better than PSU's... I like our chances in this one. But, win or lose, this team has earned the honors we're giving it today!
November 21st, 2021 at 9:32 AM ^
Just can’t appreciate the season because of that msu game. That was the only game I cared about and I would definitely be fine if Michigan was 8-3 right now but had a win over msu. OSU is a death machine they cannot be stopped. It is going to be ugly.
November 21st, 2021 at 10:01 AM ^
If you really believe this, why are you even here?
Your season is over and you're a loser.
The rest of us still got things to root for around here.
And we are all well aware of the large amount of the fanbase that is Bpone, no need to remind us.
GoBlue!
November 21st, 2021 at 1:35 PM ^
Fine. If Michigan actually beats OSU, starting at 12:01am Eastern Standard Time on Wednesday December 1st I will not post again for 1 year(365 days.) Will you do the same if Michigan loses yet again?
November 21st, 2021 at 1:52 PM ^
I'm here to root for my team to WIN this week.... that's the point.
My question is still valid, if you think the season is a failure because of a loss to MSU and we have no chance at beating OSU, what are going to contribute this week?