2016 PSU Offense Comparison
I came across this post on Twitter this morning and thought it would be worthwhile to share:
https://twitter.com/chrisnielsen44/status/1181752944825421825?s=21
So I’ve seen a ton of the Michigan media I follow saying how awful the offense is thru 5 games. Here is how they compare to the ‘16 PSU team going thru a similar scheme change:
Total O YPG - PSU 365/UofM 367
Total O PPG - PSU 29/UofM 28
Record - PSU 3-2/UofM 4-1
If the link doesn’t work, the tweet shows that through 5 games, UM’s offense has very similar statistics to PSU’s offense through 5 games while going through a similar offensive transition. Hopefully we see a similar turnaround the second half of the season as well.
October 10th, 2019 at 8:54 AM ^
Thank you for sharing this! I've never heard of this comparison before.
October 10th, 2019 at 9:44 AM ^
You're welcome!
I thought this was worthwhile to share as it contained actual statistics and they were almost exactly the same to Michigan's through the same amount of games.
This wasn't a "Josh Gattis coached receivers for Joe Moorehead at Penn State who, in his first year installing a new offense, orchestrated a huge turnaround for Penn State mid-season so we should expect the same" post.
October 10th, 2019 at 9:55 AM ^
There is no reason to believe however that Josh Gattis is Joe Moorhead so all these statistics demonstrate is that our offense has been as bad through 5 games as 2016 Penn State was before their turnaround -- which was bad.
October 11th, 2019 at 11:10 AM ^
There was no reason to believe Joe Moorehead was Joe Moorehead in mid-2016 either... I'm willing to hold off and let the rest of the season determine how we judge Gattis. Not that we have any choice.
October 10th, 2019 at 9:59 AM ^
Invest in a sarcasm detector.
October 10th, 2019 at 10:19 AM ^
Maybe you and Damone need to take your own advice? I thought the exclamation point at the end of my first sentence was enough, but I guess not for everyone.
October 10th, 2019 at 11:37 AM ^
"This wasn't a "Josh Gattis coached receivers for Joe Moorehead at Penn State who, in his first year installing a new offense, orchestrated a huge turnaround for Penn State mid-season so we should expect the same" post."
Are you sure? Observe this quote from your OP: "Hopefully we see a similar turnaround the second half of the season as well."
Smells like a duck, quacks like a duck...
October 10th, 2019 at 12:00 PM ^
The point being that my post contained data that most previous comparisons between UM and PSU do not. Also, I would like Michigan (the team that I am a fan of) to experience a turn around like PSU did. It’s obviously not likely.
I’m not sure if you’re being obtuse intentionally but I thought my post was pretty clear
October 10th, 2019 at 3:27 PM ^
Ducks have a "smell"?
Git new hobbies..
October 10th, 2019 at 5:47 PM ^
You can hope for something without expecting it. Two very different things.
If you don't have hope, why follow sports at all?
October 10th, 2019 at 8:54 AM ^
Just let it go man.
October 10th, 2019 at 8:54 AM ^
Its clicking on all cylinders
October 10th, 2019 at 10:51 AM ^
*In practice
October 10th, 2019 at 12:44 PM ^
*In theory
October 10th, 2019 at 7:38 PM ^
I went back and listened and Harbaugh actually said “we are close to hitting our stride.” I don’t know if even that is true but I appreciate him not throwing his players under the bus a la Brian Kelly.
October 10th, 2019 at 8:55 AM ^
Pretty sure they were breaking in sophomore McSorley as the newly-minted starter instead of having a senior QB though, which is an important distinction I think.
October 10th, 2019 at 8:57 AM ^
They also had a Garbage OL going into the season, returning basically no quality starters.
October 10th, 2019 at 8:58 AM ^
Well, we have a garbage OL but they're somehow made up of veteran players so ...
October 10th, 2019 at 9:11 AM ^
OL isn't garbage at all. They haven't played well at times, but they're still good. Brian's UFR was on point that a lot of the times all the blocks are made, and a free hitter arrives to cut something down at 3-4 yards.
Need better scheme, better WR blocking to get more chunks.
October 10th, 2019 at 9:12 AM ^
That's fair, perhaps I should've said 'relative to expectations'. I think we could agree they've underperformed based on returners and their performance last season. How much is because of our Frankenstein offense, etc. is certainly up for discussion.
October 10th, 2019 at 10:06 AM ^
Yes, relative to expectations it's been rough. Some of it has been on the RBs as well, again as Brian mentioned. That quick pitch on 3rd and 9 was an excellent play call, I think Turner should have been in there for it instead of Charbonnet. That play was made for Chris Evans though, he would have taken it a long way.
October 10th, 2019 at 11:43 AM ^
I don't think Evans ever took a toss to the wide side of the field. I also don't think Evans ever took a toss to the short side of the field. Pretty sure that Evans was never given a play where he was delivered the ball in space, save for one wheel route in 3 years.
In fact, I'll go on record saying that Chris Evans was criminally misused for his entire career at UM by Michigan's offensive coaching staff. (Which seems to be a recurring theme...)
October 10th, 2019 at 9:23 AM ^
Ruiz has regressed. I wonder if he is dealing with something.
October 10th, 2019 at 9:29 AM ^
A new offense is something, so yes.
October 10th, 2019 at 9:43 AM ^
No offense to Brian and his UFR, but this oline isn't playing well. He can give points for this or that, but anyone that watches can see little to no push up front. Including against Rutgers.
October 10th, 2019 at 9:45 AM ^
The OL has been the issue since 2015. QB play is now the main issue, but the OL is still not getting any push when they need to.
October 10th, 2019 at 10:44 AM ^
Not true.
The eye test is often cited as the be all end all of football diagnostics, but it simply misses the nuance of the game.
From the examples in UFR we can see several instances where the OL is getting push hat for hat, but when you're playing 6v5 and leave a free hitter, there's not a lot you can do.
Having a legit QB read option game changes that and makes the D have to account for another body. If you don't challenge the D to cover the entire field, you get what M is putting out there at the moment.
October 10th, 2019 at 12:11 PM ^
I'm not talking about a free blitzer, I'm talking watching the games and see a guard one on one not getting a push. It's pretty easy to see.
October 10th, 2019 at 4:26 PM ^
I mean sure, on a play-by-play basis, you win some you lose some.
Having said that, again, I would disagree with your primary premise. My opinion is that our regressing run game is more tied to scheming/play selection.
But there's room for all opinions on God's green earth my dude.
My opinion is just better.
/s
October 10th, 2019 at 5:50 PM ^
I definitely believe scheme is messing up the run game, but again I see very few plays were they are getting a good push. With a line that has 4 returning starters, scheme or not, they are not winning one on one battles as much as they should be.
October 10th, 2019 at 9:14 AM ^
I guess that matters if you think the QB and OL are having trouble because they lost talent or got weaker.... instead of just having trouble because they are still digesting a new offensive system and they are thinking too much.
October 10th, 2019 at 4:58 PM ^
I know something about football, but when it comes to details I'd rather listen to a ex pro football lineman. I pay attention to guys like Doug Skene ex Michigan great. Said on Balas podcast this week that some of the Guys are just starting to come into being comfortable with the scheme. At times the ball side push is there but there may be one guy to high getting stood up by a D lineman. He said Mayfield came to play at Iowa. That Ruiz is not playing as he is capable and that Runyan was out for 3 games and is getting back into things. He mentioned Bredison as doing very well. His comment that stood out to me was saying that there are 2 to 3 guys that have played with intensity and are starting to show technique needed. He mention big MIke as being more like on and off in intensity. All in all there is good improvement and good signs if the interior line meaning Ruiz and Onwenue get with it we can be seeing some big yardage plays on the ground.
October 10th, 2019 at 9:46 AM ^
They also had Saquan Barkley. We don't.
October 10th, 2019 at 9:48 AM ^
Yeah the comparison is missing the fact that PSU was extremely young and breaking in new starters. Also that they had Saquan Barkley, which Charbonnet is not.
October 10th, 2019 at 11:46 AM ^
I said this to Worldwide TJ Rob yesterday, but Charbonnet was rated significantly above Barkley as recruits. Saying Charbonnet is definitely not Barkley is a projection that goes against their respective recruiting profiles and scouting.
You might be right in 5 years, but you can't judge Charbonnet today against what Barkley is today. There's a good chance based on the scouting done on each that Charbonnet ends up just as good.
October 10th, 2019 at 12:41 PM ^
I hope you're right. I don't know, based on anything I've seen (doesn't seem to have elite explosiveness, speed, agility, change of direction, etc) that would lead anyone to say "There's a good chance Charbonnet ends up just as good).
Barkley was one of those "freak respnders" (Brian Urlacher being another) that getting bigger and stronger lead to much greater response in physical performance than usual. All kids get bigger, faster and stronger in college due to their weight programs. Very few have the kind of "return on investment" that kids like Barkley and Urlacher have. They are the exceptions and not the rule.
October 10th, 2019 at 1:09 PM ^
I don't know, based on anything I've seen (doesn't seem to have elite explosiveness, speed, agility, change of direction, etc) that would lead anyone to say "There's a good chance Charbonnet ends up just as good
1. Charbonnet was the higher rated recruit
2. They have virtually the same ypc through 5 games in 2016/2019
The only reason anybody thinks it's unlikely is because we know how Barkley turns out. Again, not a prediction from me, but the notion that the comparison is flawed because we don't have a Barkley-like player in this offense is betrayed by the fact that we have several offensive skill players that were rated as high or higher than anyone 2016 Penn State had on offense.
October 10th, 2019 at 8:52 PM ^
I think the only reason people think it is unlikely is because it is incredibly unlikely that Charbonnet turns into a RB of Barkley's calibre. Barkley turned into an athletic freak at PSU. The chances that Charbonnet will are super low. Possible, but so so so unlikely.
October 10th, 2019 at 12:15 PM ^
Having Barkley probably helped a little too
October 10th, 2019 at 8:55 AM ^
I've seen this comparison but I'm not sure I'm buying. It is weird how an offense can change when the light comes on for the QB. PSU looked so bad when we savaged them and then they got a little lucky along the way. I hope the light comes on for any of our QB's. It isn't out of the realm of possibility for something like this to happen but Patterson just seems lost to me and the offensive coordinator doesn't trust him.
October 10th, 2019 at 11:51 AM ^
Agreed. Patterson has the tool set to be really good and thrive in this offense like McSorley did under Moorhead. He hit some nice passes against Iowa and the previous games. He was good last season. Maybe he doesn't like Gattis. I don't get it. Most head case QB's are actually good on the football field but screw up off field or say dumb things to the press. Looks like we have the opposite.
October 10th, 2019 at 12:47 PM ^
Labeling Patterson a "head case" may be a bit unfair. There is a very likely possibility that his ranking was way to high. He may be just an average QB. Did he show anything at Ole Miss that would say this kid is gonna be a top 5-10 QB in the country some day? Seems to me that most saw an OK performance his Freshman year and thought he would develop / take great strides each year. Maybe Shane just is what he is. Not a bad QB, but by no means a kid that is gonna be our savior and lead us to great wins.
October 10th, 2019 at 1:50 PM ^
He is running his 3rd different offense in 3 years so I'm sympathetic to him. We have certainly seen other quarterbacks struggle in similar circumstances. However, it just doesn't seem like he is getting it and the coaches keep scaling things back. We are the very definition of vanilla right now.
October 10th, 2019 at 5:20 PM ^
I guess I should've defined "head case" because it does sound harsh to me now that I re-read my post. It simply means that he appears to be over thinking on the football field. Analysis/paralysis. The yips. Perhaps head case was a poor choice of words.
October 10th, 2019 at 4:20 PM ^
Patterson's celebration won't be a homerun swing, it'll be a tee shot. amiright?
October 10th, 2019 at 8:56 AM ^
Didn't PSU have a multitude of injuries on both sides of the line as well as playing walk-on LBs?
We will see if there is a change in the offense. The first chance to prove things will be against PSU, not Rutgers #2 this weekend.
October 10th, 2019 at 9:34 AM ^
PSU fans always talked about their LB injuries but never really had a comeback for why they couldn't score or move the ball. They had injuries on defense but I don't remember their offense being significantly different with personnel.
October 10th, 2019 at 9:48 AM ^
This ^^^
AND - Its not like poor linebacker play is the difference between a beating of epic proportions and a win.