This Week's Obsession: Who Will Be Harbaughed? Comment Count

Seth

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Yea, and we shall block things

The Question:

Ace: Which returning player do you expect to have the biggest breakout season under Jim Harbaugh? Who benefits the most from the coaching change?  To keep us from all answering the same thing, first responder gets to take Butt/Bunting.

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The Answers:

Adam Schnepp: Butt/Bunting or whoever lines up at Y/TE are obvious (and very merited) choices, but I think that the returning player most likely to have a breakout season under Harbaugh is the guy who ends up being the starting quarterback. That may seem like a strange pick considering that there isn't actually a specific player whom I can definitely name here, but there's pretty solid circumstantial evidence to back up my prediction.

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Beeeeeee goooooooooood. [Fuller]

Harbaugh's long had a reputation as a quarterback guru, and for good reason: he developed Andrew Luck and Colin Kaepernick while helping resuscitate Alex Smith's career. Smith had a career completion percentage of 57.1% and threw for 6.2 yards per attempt in the five seasons before Harbaugh arrived. In two years under his tutelage, Harbaugh simplified the offense and Smith's stats benefited for it; his completion percentage in those two years rose to 64.3% while his yards per attempt rose to 7.4.

After years of suffering through Brady Hoke and his offensive staff trying to slam a round peg into a square hole over (Denard) and over (Devin) and over (Shane) again, it's going to be a breath of fresh air to watch Harbaugh implement an offense that's supposed to work to a quarterback's advantage. In the Smart Football article linked above Chris Brown discusses how Harbaugh erased sight adjustments from his offense so that the quarterback didn't have to hesitate when the defense presented coverages that shifted post snap. Instead there were built-in hot routes in every play that didn't require the quarterback to hope the receiver reacted the same way to the coverage they were presented with.

If the past is any indication of the future then whoever wins the quarterback battle is going to have a firm grasp of progressions as well, because Harbaugh tries to make this as simple for the quarterback to rapidly work through as he can (more on that here and here). I expect Harbaugh to implement similar concepts at Michigan, where the power running game should open up options for the quarterback to create the type of big plays that we didn't see last season.

[After the jump: someone will take Butt/Bunting. Eventually.]

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David Nasternak: Kenny Allen. We can haz spread punt. I predict a school record for number of 'opponent fair catches.' And having 11 players on the field at all times.

Spreadpunt

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Brian: Well, fine, I'll take Jake Butt and/or Ian Bunting. 

There was an undercurrent of anti-spread thought during the coaching search based on the idea that there would be unacceptable transition costs after the last two awkward transitions. I think that's overblown since Harbaugh is likely to flip the running approach from almost all zone to almost all gap stuff, but in one regard the spread skeptics were right: dang if Harbaugh isn't inheriting a set of tools suited to the manballing.

Foremost amongst those tools are Jake Butt and Ian Bunting, the kind of hybrid block/catch threats that Harbaugh has flung into endzones and the NFL willy-nilly. Both guys are praised for their receiving skills, and with Butt we've seen evidence of that. It's about whether that can get mean enough. Funchess never did, but I have a hunch Harbaugh will be more effective at getting the maximum from his players. Butt and Bunting should be able to get to blockin' size and then they'll be flying down the seam against extremely disadvantaged defenders. I was already hype on Bunting, and now he's got the exact right guy to take advantage of his talents. I'm expecting massive things for both guys.

(Also: Shallman.)

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Seth: That leaves offensive line, wide receivers, and…oh yeah the fullbacks!

Lest we forget, Nussmeier was a one-back kind of man, and the fullbacks were relegated to H-back or weird tight end duties:

That is not the sort of thing Joe Kerridge was not-recruited for. Until Hoke was fired, the remaining fullbacks could look forward to an uneasy life motioning across formations, leaking into flats, and dancing around SAMs and WDEs to set the edge.

Harbaugh's offense, however, requires a guy who can primarily do two things: 1. Get a head of steam and thunk a linebacker out of the hole, and 2. Make extra pass rushers go "doink".

floyd

doink.

Michigan hasn't had a real plugger for the fanbase to fall in love with since Kevin Dudley. Since the spread's had a half a generation to proliferate through college football, there aren't a lot of coaches left with a track record of developing fullbacks. Michigan's coach is one of those rare guys who will play an H-back and a fullback on the regular. If they can make Shallman into Shea that would be awesome, but either way this hiring means a lot of snaps suddenly came available for brick types who don't mind graduating an inch or two shorter than they arrived. Mr. Kerridge, Mr. Houma, please step forward and submit your helmets for inspection.

Harbaugh developed two NFL fullbacks—first Owen Marecic, and then Ryan Hewitt—at Stanford, and likely would have had a third if Geoff Meinken hadn't had his career derailed by knee injuries. Harbaugh's last fullback recruit, Lee Ward, was Stanford's captain this year and could catch on as an undrafted free agent. In San Francisco Harbaugh used a 7th round pick to draft Bruce Miller, who's become one of the best in the league of this dying breed.

It's frustrating that Houma didn't get a redshirt, so he and Kerridge are both juniors this season. But both of them were kind of the odd men out when Michigan went to one-back zone blocking last year, and it was quite a coup for them, in this day and age, that Michigan is bringing in one of the few remaining I-form all stars. They'll also have some new coaches with new ideas on how to coach pass blocking, a constant bugaboo in the Borges era.

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Ace: And the O-line falls to me, it appears.

The career of Kyle Kalis, in particular, stood as a testament to the previous staff's failures. Here was a five-star snatched away from Ohio State who looked like an NFL guard and had a highlight film of straight-up murder:

Fans were clamoring for him to see the field as a true freshman when Michigan's line struggled in 2012, and that didn't seem entirely unreasonable. Instead of hitting the field in 2013 and being Steve Hutchinson, though, he had trouble holding onto his starting spot; even last season, as the line improved (remember, improvement is relative), he started just seven games. We've only seen flashes of the guy who made bodies hit the floor; more often, we've seen him a little unsure of which body to hit, period.

In comes Tim Drevno, the man in charge of Harbaugh's killer O-lines at Stanford and San Francisco who then managed to get solid production out of a USC line featuring three true freshmen last season. It's safe to expect improvement across the board for Michigan's line, especially since everyone returns. I'm most excited to see Kalis, the prospect who couldn't miss, start to fulfill that potential.

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BiSB: Looks like I get the wide receivers. Which... yipee. Answer faster or perish, I suppose. 

Harbaugh didn't have a thousand yard receiver at Stanford, but Doug Baldwin and Ryan Whalen were both pretty good. The big difference will be that now that the running game will (oh please Angry Michigan Next-Year-Has-To-Be-Better Hating God, give us this one) pose a bigger threat, play action might actually be effective. Harbaugh's schemes put serious stress on guys with run-pass responsibilities, in that he creates six or seven or eight potential holes on the offensive line, and makes clear that if you aren't gap-sound and RIGHT THERE, you're in for a world of hurt. So even if they aren't churning out ten yards a carry, the middle of the defense should be less helpful in the passing game.

So for a guy like Amara Darboh, the running game might clear out the linebackers a little bit or bring the safeties into the box. Darboh doesn't seem to have the Funchess/Hemingway quality where you can chuck him the ball in double coverage and expect Not Doom, but if you get him in single coverage or an open release and he can be really effective. We seem pretty confident that if Freddy Canteen gets isolated, he can route dudes to death. We just didn't see much of this stuff last year because EVERYTHING was bracketed or had a linebacker sitting underneath or just generally didn't have a gotdamn prayer.

But yeah it's the quarterbacks and tight ends.

Comments

maize-blue

January 28th, 2015 at 11:21 AM ^

I think Morris will have a slight edge as he has the most live game experience. A lot have poo pooed him for not looking the best in the Minnesota game or spot duty when Gardner got yanked or banged up. However, I think with better coaching, better O line play we'll be pleasantly satisfied. I'd feel a little bad for him if he didn't get the spot as that would mean his opportunity for being the Michigan QB has passed. I do feel that Harbaugh will put the best guy out there and not worry about loyalty or hurting feelings.

True Blue Grit

January 28th, 2015 at 11:48 AM ^

Gardner was going to be The Guy from the get-go because of his experience and Morris never really had the opportunity to "take the starting job away from him."  I can't prove that obviously.  But, it's pretty plausible.  The fact is that none of us really know how good Morris can be under the right coaching and situation.  We'll see.

Reader71

January 28th, 2015 at 11:51 AM ^

The last coach was trying to save his job until the last day of the season, so benching the 5th year senior QB was never really an option. Not that I think Morris showed he deserved the spot, but Gardner had shown glimpses of real ability, and Hoke had to cling to the hope that he would pull a game or two out of his hat.

bluebyyou

January 28th, 2015 at 12:24 PM ^

In 2013, Gardner had problems in the early part of the season with INT's, but he threw very few during the second half of the year and had some mammoth performances passing.  In 2013, when he had to run, he was very successful. Hoke had reason to believe 2014 would be an improvement.

In 2014, it all came apart at the seams.  His passing regressed.  He was injured and his running was just not there.  His throwing motion, which was always a bit strange seemed to get worse.  I guess three different OC's can do that to you.  I always thought Devin got the short end of the stick..

 

reshp1

January 28th, 2015 at 11:24 AM ^

I agree, way too many people are writing him off already. He looked bad so far, but not really that bad relative to his experience level and given the fact he's changed coaches every year. Yes, he'll be going through another transition, but more total experience should hopefully help him weather it a bit better this time around.

dwinning

January 29th, 2015 at 10:07 AM ^

With a solid defense, improving O-line and a competent run game, Morris doesn't have to be "great" or even "good" to competently play the role we'll need him to play in this offense. Seems like a tough kid with all the physical ability you need, do people really think that Harbaugh can't turn this kid into just an average Big 10 QB pretty quickly?  That's not the highest bar in the world.  

schreibee

January 28th, 2015 at 1:05 PM ^

No one EVER mentions Khalid Hill - not in the TE discussion, nor the FB, nor the H-back - in fact someone (Alum96?) put together a roster analysis for '15 awhile back and completely forgot to include him on the team...and that dude is Thorough!!!

He can fill a Marecic type role perfectly - with some Ertz thrown in. Just gotta stay healthy..but I guess that goes for everyone. Of course I think Marecic played both ways, so if you wanna be compared to that guy you better be ready to strap it ON!!!

nmumike

January 28th, 2015 at 10:44 AM ^

go with the offensive line as a unit. With excellent coaching the O-Line should improve from last year which bodes well for our offense in general. I beleive that if our line goes from average to good, the QB, RB and WR/TE's will also improve. 

swalburn

January 28th, 2015 at 10:50 AM ^

This excites me more than recruiting.  The idea that some of our guys will reach their potential or exceed it is why I think we will be world beaters going forward.  Harbaugh will recruit at a level he has never been able to recruit at before.  Then he will coach them up, and we will be a problem for just about anybody.

814 East U

January 28th, 2015 at 10:53 AM ^

I really do not mean for this comment to bash Hoke. It is meant to praise Harbaugh. I am excited not for any players per se but a new attitude, hustle, drive that we just didn't see all the time under Hoke.

I want to see guys having fun while having a desire to kick butt and bury the other side...which I think we will all get to witness under Jim. 

maize-blue

January 28th, 2015 at 11:29 AM ^

Absolutely. I don't know what it was exactly but the more Hoke was here, the more the team lost it's swagger. There was just a malaize that they played with and was sometimes aggrevating to watch. There was 0 attitude on this team in Hoke's last two years.

bleed_trueblue17

January 28th, 2015 at 12:22 PM ^

This is why lewan was so passionate and made bad decisions. He came back to a team that had no swagger after being apart of a couple teams that had the attitude. For some reason at times it seemed like guys didn't care under hoke and I don't think Lewan knew how to deal with that. He was carrying the swagger of a full team on his shoulders and I think he slightly crumbled because if this

The_Mad Hatter

January 28th, 2015 at 1:23 PM ^

was the problem.  We had a coach that prioritized everyone feeling good about themselves and geting participation ribbons over winning.

Can you imagine JH clapping when a player screws something up?  Now I'm not saying scream at the kid (although Bo would), but you don't celebrate errors and mediocrity.

Hoke never demanded excellence.  Harbaugh will.

ribby

January 29th, 2015 at 10:25 AM ^

I don't think it is clapping, so much. It is just that he was not a head coach. The plan was to bring in some good coordinators and let them do their thing. Mattison mostly did, but the OCs did not. The HC cannot be a figurehead, number one, he has to hold the coordinators accountable, which he never did with Borges or ST. Also, the staff isn't just coordinators, and Hoke did not fill the staff with good guys all the way down, as it seems Harbaugh is doing. More generally, he was out of touch, as concussion-gate showed; that was not a result of feel-good coaching, that was bad, stupid, player-alienating coaching.

I don't think the Bo/Woody/Bobby/Bear tough bastard style is a good one, I think you can be a good strategic and motivational coach and be a relatively good guy. And I don't really know that Harbaugh is a bastard, being intense and demanding is not the same thing as being abusive.

SMJenkins3

January 28th, 2015 at 11:54 AM ^

I read a Gannon interview that praised how Harbaugh worked with him and was great at seeing things like a QB (obviously) and talking everything out with Gannon.

Of course I can't find it right now in my phone, but it exists out there on the internet.

schreibee

January 28th, 2015 at 1:09 PM ^

Yeah, I don't think Jim has ever been accused of false modesty, but... he WAS the QB coach for a guy that went to Pro Bowls and Super Bowls with him and was never more than average without him.

So... JH can say what he wants, and you can parrot it, but I'm gonna go with the evidence.

Zarniwoop

January 28th, 2015 at 11:01 AM ^

I was taking a break and work and praying there would be new content for me to devour!

MOAR content!

I can't wait to see how the oline develops as the year goes on. There are highly-talented, highly-recruited fella in that group. Even the backups were well-regarded recruits.

MANBALL!!!

JoeyFootball19

January 28th, 2015 at 11:03 AM ^

Butt and Bunting are no brainers. These guys have the talent to be the next Fleener and Ertz with a little bit of coaching. Both have start potential. To me thats why I thought Chris Clark was a no brainer but then again im not a 17 year old Senior.

Blueinsconsin

January 28th, 2015 at 11:09 AM ^

I expect big things from Isaac, Smith and even Green if he heals properly.  I'm excited for depth and experience in the RB position, which we haven't been able to say in a long time.

DonAZ

January 28th, 2015 at 11:46 AM ^

That's an interesting take ... or rephrasing of the OP question -- "Which player's progress will serve as a proxy for the overall team development?"

Kalas on the OL is a good choice for that.  It all starts there.  If the OL does not get better, then all the other talk of QB, WR, FB development pretty much diminishes.  Kalis is a good OL proxy ... because against expectations he's under-performed a bit.

(As opposed to, say, Mason Cole, who over-performed a bit.)

Reader71

January 28th, 2015 at 12:03 PM ^

I have a different take w/r/t OL: I don't care who the individuals are so long as the unit is good. If Kalis never plays a snap I will feel bad for him, but I will feel good for Michigan so long as the guys who do take snaps play well. Looking at one guy as a proxy for the OL doesn't make sense to me. This is partly the result of not caring about recruiting stars, I'm sure. If we were going to use an individual as a proxy, for example, I would watch Braden more closely than Kalis. Yes, Kalis's recruiting stars would suggest he has a higher upside, but that concerns me far less than the fact that Braden is probably going to play out of necessity, and we need him to be good, stars be damned.

DonAZ

January 28th, 2015 at 12:15 PM ^

Same with Pipkens.

Bingo ... I was going to say on the defensive side Pipkens is who I'd focus on.

The ability of the DL to get "push" is going to be something to watch this fall.  The DL has been pretty good, but the truly great DLs are just disruptive forces.  That starts in the middle and works out.  So watching Pipkens this year will be interesting.

DonAZ

January 28th, 2015 at 12:13 PM ^

Braden is an interesting choice ... particularly when I focus on your "out of necessity" comment.  If Braden can be good, then it suggests those with more natural talent can be even better. 

It's kinda-sorta the "weakest link" analogy ... focus on the player with the least natural abilities and chart them.  The strength of the chain will be indicated by that link.

That said ... if Braden = Good, but everyone else = "meh" ... we have problems.  But I don't see that scenario playing out.  Improvement should be across the board.  Some players more than others, but overall an upward slope.