This Week’s Obsession: Does It Get Better? Comment Count

Seth

THIS ARTICLE HAS A SPONSOR: If you haven’t yet talked to Nick Hopwood, our PEAK LOGOMGoFinancial Planner from Peak Wealth Management, this might be a good week to catch him, since Nick reports he has barred himself in his office and plans to do nothing but work until all the Spartans in his life think he’s run off to live a simpler life in the woods or something.

Our deal is Nick is the guy I go to for financial strategies, and he gets to ask us Michigan questions on your behalf. Anytime it’s a Nick question, we’ll let you know. Anytime you’ve got a financial question, let Nick know.

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Michigan ran a few zone read-like things with O’Korn but for whatever reason these just got a back swarmed for no gain. [Bryan Fuller]

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Nick’s Question:

MGoBlog: Do you have a question this week?

Nick: f---?

MGoBlog: That question is self-answering. New question.

Nick: sigh.

MGoBlog:

Nick: How does this offense get better?

MGoBlog: Yelling at it?

Nick: I mean that’s my question. You have to answer it.

MGoBlog: Yell at it LOUDER.

How does this offense get better?

Seth: Let's start with the simplest: build some quarterback running plays into the offense because O'Korn is a better run threat than a Tom Brady-esque check-to-your-5th-read distribution center. Also the pocket won't last that long. If the ends are constantly having to worry about holding the edge or getting optioned that takes some pressure off the tackles. And I think they are starting to build an interior running game that's functional as long as the counters are.

I thought I saw O'Korn mess up a couple of zone reads in this game and then Michigan dropped it but the Denard power offense might be a good fit for these guys if they could find a running back willing to lead block.

[Hit THE JUMP for other ideas that don’t involve testing the stickiness of substances]

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David: This was mentioned a a couple of times before, but it may be time to tinker with the offensive line?  They are 0 for 2 at right tackle so far and the better defensive lines are still to come.  Normally, time and experience are solutions here, but neither of those will do in this case.  While quality tackles are not something that Michigan possesses a lot of, they do have a few interesting interior line options.  Perhaps it is time to flip Bredeson out to right tackle and try someone else inside.  They have Runyan (who has filled in for Onwenu at times), Spanellis, super-center prospect Cesar Ruiz, or maybe even walk-on Andrew Vastardis?  There are many reasons why each of these will not work, but they are at least new options to attempt.  From the last few weeks, it seems that it would not be a ton worse than what we've already seen on the edge so far this season.

For all I know, Michigan has already attempted each of these scenarios in practice or Fall Camp.  If that's the case, then obviously there's a reason it hasn't already been trotted out.  However, if they haven't ever looked at them, this might be the latest best time to take a peek.

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Ace: I’d like to see more playcalls that attack up the seam through the air. The lack of those type of shots was glaring against a Michigan State team that’s still weak at safety. It was bizarre to see O’Korn take a few shots down the sideline, which haven’t worked much at all this year, to receivers who are either really struggling (Kekoa Crawford) or are true freshmen (DPJ).

While I’m all for putting it up deep to DPJ, I wouldn’t mind seeing him run some of those routes out of the slot, which would potentially get him on a safety instead of a corner and give him more margin for error on his route.  This is more about Zach Gentry and Sean McKeon, though. They’ve proven to be the most reliable targets outside of Grant Perry; they’re both huge; they’re both impressively athletic for their size. Given the quarterback situation, Michigan might as well play high-risk ball because there are going to be turnovers one way or the other. I’d much rather see them go out in a blaze of glory taking deep shots to tree-people than farting away games with a dink-and-dunk attack.

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Brian: I'm afraid the answer is "it doesn't," and we're in for a bunch of rock fights against pulse-bearing opponents.

I am mildly encouraged by Michigan's ground game against MSU, which didn't do amazingly statistically but had a lot of confounding factors (rain, game situation, QB woof). With limited exceptions Michigan ground forward against MSU by returning to a running game that looks more like what Michigan did the last two years instead of this year's early-season zone-a-palooza. Michigan ran a bunch of power, trapped some guys, and mixed in zone stuff. This looked and felt a lot better. The opposition was off guard instead of just teeing off on IZ with slants the whole game.

Continue doing that and get a little better at footballing and Michigan's ground game will improve into the realm of the adequate, especially if they can find a better option at right tackle. Which they probably can't? I don't know.

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Ace: 

Brian: The day where you speak exclusively by handing people gifs is coming. Podcast is gonna be lit yo.

Ace:


Seth: For those asking this is how a podcast goes from 100% kitten-free to not that.

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Seth: Say this question doesn't have a time limit. Next year are they good? Are they good in 2019?

Brian: They return everyone except O'Korn, the fullbacks, Cole, and Kugler. So... uh. Probably? If they do get Grant Newsome back that changes the picture considerably.

Seth: They struck out this year but the grad transfer market could yield a guy as well.

Brian: I'm very dubious about grad transferring OL. I think the Clemson guy they were in on already quit Florida's team. I mean, a QB like Shea Patterson at a school that's about to get a hamblasting from the NCAA... sure. Literally every good OL in the world already starts.

Ace:

[remembers Chad Lindsay]
[nods]

Seth: Yeah, if he's useful he's probably already starting, but I think there's a window with the current rules (and a gaping hole if the proposed transfer rule goes through) to pick off somebody's starter. Not only do you have the FBI storm ready to strike in weird places, but half or more of the SEC are going to have new coaches next year.

That creates a bunch of Power 5 schools either bringing in a new guy or losing one, plus a handful of mid-majors who just lost their rock star. WMU had a really good OT who was kicking the tires on grad transfers after Fleck left last year. If you just lost your coach, you've got your degree, and you're smart enough to play offensive line at maybe not quite draftable level, a graduate education from Michigan is quite an opportunity.

8C8868172-tdy-130906-castro-intrv-08.today-inline-large
Your buddy’s in the next room right now about to tell us how the Cam Newton thing really went down. Whoever talks first gets the deal.

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Brian: I mean the problem next year is that they're still pretty young on the OL. Current projection would be... uh... Stueber/ Bredeson/ Ruiz/ Onwenu/ JBB? With JBB very much under threat? That's two third-year players and two second-year players with a potential for a third second-year player if Ulizio and/or JBB get passed by one of the tackles in the 2017 class. Which I think we hope happens. If Michigan didn't have to take redshirts off Bredeson and Onwenu because of a dearth of guys ahead of them that's a one-or-zero upperclassman line. It could be good. It could be iffy. Knocking out one of the tackles for Newsome is a huge upgrade.

Also, dude, the FBI is probably not going to impact football. Cheating in CFB is organized by boosters, not shoe companies.

Seth: I think there's some reasonable hope that the FBI finds a bagman or two. These aren't hardened criminals they're interviewing, and if half of campus already knows where the bodies are buried, chances are one of these assistants is willing to share that information to cut a deal.

David: They also return Tarik Black, who looked as advanced as any non-Perry WR on the roster.  We didn't think his injury would be THIS catastrophic at the time, but...it may well have been.

Seth: Far more relevant: quarterbacks another year with Jim Harbaugh, tackles with a year under Greg Frey. And Drevno, who had a good track record until a bunch of Hoke's guys plateaued at mediocre and the next wave didn't pop early.

Comments

Mgoczar

October 10th, 2017 at 12:12 PM ^

Honestly I think this is what I am patiently waiting to see

Offense improves greatly. 

or

Offense the same or regress, does harbaugh goes and gets "the best OC out there"

Mgoczar

October 10th, 2017 at 12:37 PM ^

He is still human. I really think Pep and his style of 5 wide spread is not meshing well with Drevno. Many variables such as 

- Spread combo with power ala NE patriots is not that easy to implement and team is struggling 

- Pep and Drevno and Harbaugh all calling plays doesn't mesh well and offense can't establish and identity and doesn't have time to rep all the complex plays (40 formations??)

- This scheme may not be the best for college

- In general Pep not getting to the players, specially QB and WR (what he was brought in for)

Just my thoughts but the chemistry/espirit de corps just isn't there on offense. 

ckersh74

October 10th, 2017 at 12:43 PM ^

I think he's got it right here. Too many cooks in the kitchen. Two OC's. Two line coaches. Too many coaches trying to do the same thing. Also, re: the line. My biggest fear is that Newsome's return isn't the panacea that we think it's going to be, seeing as how he will have missed a year's worth of practice, plus the severity of his injury in the first place.

dragonchild

October 10th, 2017 at 2:44 PM ^

Gosh, it's been so long so I don't remember his play specifically but IIRC he had the "how to execute being an OT" part down and we're desperate for that.  He'd be rusty but it's not like taking a year off made him senile.  Ulizio and JBB have problems that can't be fixed through rehab.

My main worry is that tackles need to be able to shuffle and drive, and you need your knees to do that.  He's running now and that's fantastic, but to be an effective OL that's not enough.  I mean, seeing him run mainly made me happy because all accounts are that he's a great guy and if he ever has kids it's always more fun to chase them around than watch them from a wheelchair.  I mean, his injury was that bad.  So I think it's still too soon to talk about Newsome playing football outside of casual what-ifs.

uofmdds96

October 10th, 2017 at 1:09 PM ^

worked well together and that Pep and he were not on the same page yet. (not direct qoute). I thought he also said that Pep and O'Korn were a good fit.  I am under the impression that the play book is limited due to 3/5 of the line not being good at the basics, but was Fisch's choice of pass plays way better than Pep's?  I remember one interview last year in which Fisch or Speight said that Fisch created a play during the game and it went for a TD.  (sorry my memory is not good enough for specifics)

  I feel that O'korn should be given 2 reads and then told to run ala Pryor under Tressel.  The pocket cannot sustain multiple reads/complex routes.  I would love to see that throw back screen Denard to Smith in UTL 1 happen often. (end random thoughts)

Icehole Woody

October 10th, 2017 at 12:27 PM ^

Examine the play book and rip out every passing play that takes longer than 2.5 seconds.  You can put them back when the OL shows up.  Stop running Chris Evans inside. And take the not so subtle hint from Dantonio reguarding running 40 formations in a single half. 

wolverinekeith

October 10th, 2017 at 12:26 PM ^

It'll be interesting to see how the offensive staff changes (or doesn't) this offseason.

Harbaugh isn't going anywhere

I doubt Frey goes anywhere

Drevno?

Pep back to the NFL?

Jay ?

Jim's got a great history of grabbing good up and coming coaches, so I feel confident he'd get great replacements.  

JTrain

October 10th, 2017 at 1:32 PM ^

Changing coaches isn’t always the best answer. I agree about pep. I’m a bit on the fence. But, cmon..we can’t keep changing every year. The kids get used to terminology, coaching personalities, nuances...etc. every time you bring some one new in you take some large steps back. Mainly on offense.

maize-blue

October 10th, 2017 at 12:26 PM ^

Moving Bredeson to RT and Runyan to LG seems like that would be ok.

I agree with using O'Korn as a runnning threat.

If the offense/offensive line fails to improve this season then Frey should take over entire OL, Jay Harbaugh moves back to TE/ST coach, a new RB coach is hired, a dedicated WR coach is hired, Drevno moves on to a HC gig somewhere, Hamilton makes his way back to the NFL, JH makes a great OC hire.

DamnYankee

October 10th, 2017 at 1:28 PM ^

more than we think.  To your point, there were at least 2 of those interceptions where the RB went to the left side of the pocket and completely vacated the area where the LB came through the line.  I always remeber Wheatley saying that the back that can block the best will play the most.  There is a reason Deveon played as much as he did the last couple of years - he was money (for the most part) picking up blitzes and helping protect the QB.

Kevin13

October 10th, 2017 at 1:04 PM ^

O'Korn could be enough of a running threat to keep DE's a little more honest, which could help our passing game. It's not like he has to be Denard, but keep the ball a couple of times, run through the hole created by the DE getting up field so quickly and pick up 5-6 yards, which gives them something to think about.

 

It's tough loosing to state, but now that I have calmed down, I knew this would be somewhat of a trying year as we have way too many new starters and young players to expect a championship run. I have felt we've been a little over rated this season. Let's just makes some improvements and hopefully find some good working pieces for the OL next year and can really make runs starting next year.  It also might be time to get Peters or evern McCaffery some playing time as they are the future at QB and we need an upgrade there to be a serious contender. Get one of both some playing time this year in preperation for next season. We have to start thinking about the future and Speight/O'Korn are not part of that plan.

uncleFred

October 11th, 2017 at 2:10 PM ^

We don't know, or at least I've not seen, the details on the severity of the fractures or specifically which vertebra are involved. A couple of accounts said three of his vertebra were "cracked", as opposed to crushed or broken. Depending on severity, a fractured vertebra can end your athletic career or hold it up for a little as a few months. There will be a 2018 QB competition and, whether he's able or unable to return to the field this season, I hope that Speight actively competes for the job next year. 

Shop Smart Sho…

October 10th, 2017 at 12:26 PM ^

I thouhgt that the OL couldn't get worse next year.
And then I read this post.

If Newsome doesn't come back, we're pretty well fucked, aren't we? The only other LT shaped person on the roster is Filiago, and he doesn't appear to be the second coming of Long or Lewan.

Although, I guess an argument could be made for the interior line being better. Bredeson and Onwenu will be a year older, stronger, and more familiar with the playbook. 2nd year Ruiz is approximately equal to Kugler?

But yeah, without a healthy Newsome, I don't think anyone can be terribly excited.

Kevin13

October 10th, 2017 at 1:09 PM ^

how many guys will ever be as good as the two best LT's UM has ever produced.  If he's just very good and maybe 2nd team B1G it will be a huge upgrade.  Stueber could turn into a very good OT also.  You have to believe the guys playing this year will make some improvements and we have heard very good things about Ruiz.  If he can take over at center next year and Onwenu improves along with Bredeson you have a very good interior right there. Even if Newsome doesn't come back you have to hope a guy like JBB, Filaga or Stueber can be very good at OT next year. Maybe a Runyon can be in the mix. That is 4 guys that you find the two best from and go from there. It could make for a very good OL at least better then what we are seeing this year and if Newsome does return to form now your looking at possibly a very good OL.

JTrain

October 10th, 2017 at 2:03 PM ^

“If if if if if if if if if”. Lots of ifs there.
Just feel like eventually shit has to go our way.
2015 state loss ..fluke. . Last year Ohio state...BS. And Florida state. This year MSU (5 TO’s). We’re so close to getting over that hump and I think everyone is surprised at this point that Oline is sooooo abysmal.
Will be really interesting to see if they can oath something together with O..gain some confidence...and make a decent run the last half of the year.
ANYTHING is possible. And NOONE wants it more than our guys. Our coaches.

robpollard

October 10th, 2017 at 12:30 PM ^

"Given the quarterback situation, Michigan might as well play high-risk ball because there are going to be turnovers one way or the other."

This. It was great our early drive had some grind it out, reasonably successful runs that ended in a FG in part b/c of terrible playcalling (i.e., fade to McDoom that had zero shot). But we were playing like we wanted to win a grind it out, low # of possessions game. Why do that if we're the more talented team? We want more possessions, not less.

We need to put the ball up against teams that don't have good safeties like MSU. If DPJ doesn't have to worry about his feet/body position on the sideline, I'd give that tall, superior athlete a better than average chance going up, deep in the middle, on a 50/50 ball against pretty much any safety; same with Gentry. If it gets picked? Well, consider it a punt and our top-notch D comes out to give us another chance the large majority of the time.

We need tons of short, Mesh crossing routes focused on Perry and the TEs mixed with plenty of deep, middle routes to DPJ and Gentry (and Black once he comes back). Mix in some quick screens to McDoom & co and maybe we'll have something.

Reader71

October 10th, 2017 at 1:31 PM ^

Do you really think the offensive coaching staff believe they have the luxury of, “playing like we wanted to win a grind it out, low # of possessions game?” All season, and particularly in that game, the coaches have tried to find ways to get enough positive plays to score some points. They’re up against it, and they know it. Harbaugh even said something like that post-game — that they were trying to string some good plays together. That’s not how a coach who believes he has multiple options to choose from talks. They’re not holding anything back in an effort to kill clock or lower the number of drives. It looks that way because we are not a good offensive football team.

yossarians tree

October 10th, 2017 at 1:41 PM ^

Your points are good but we heard going in that State's vulnerability was deep middle and they never went at it. As Fowler pointed out Dantonio told him that they approach this game as a "come out swinging haymakers" event. It has served him well over the years. And in particular this game you absolutely had to get a lead before the weather hit. Playing comeback in a monsoon was exactly the disaster it turned out to be.

Reader71

October 10th, 2017 at 1:54 PM ^

I don’t necessarily disagree with that, which is why I didn’t comment on it. I disagreed with the idea that it looked like we were trying to do a certain thing when clearly we’re just trying to move the ball any way we can. I will say that asking your average college QB to throw deep over the middle of the field is not generally a smart idea. It might be their biggest weakness, but it is pretty much every offense’s greatest weakness as well, because a late or inaccurate throw is pretty much a turnover. And we even saw an example of that during the game.

trueblueintexas

October 10th, 2017 at 2:22 PM ^

Who was telling us that deep middle was State's vulnerability? Harbaugh, Drevno, Hamilton, O'Korn??? 

I greatly respect the work, analysis (hell, everything) this blog does and provides. That said, they are not the coaches and do not have the background and expereince the coaching staff has.

The coaches may have seen other tendencies they thought were a safer bet to exploit. Maybe, as the wind picked up prior to the rain, they decided that was a bad idea. I'm an educated man, but I'm afraid I can't speak intelligently about the travel habits of William Santiago coaching habits of Jim Harbaugh.

robpollard

October 10th, 2017 at 2:08 PM ^

I don't know what they believe -- I just know what they called.

The first drive was 15 plays and didn't have one deep pass over the middle. It was a good drive, but it relied on consistent execution for a very sustained amount of time & unsurprisingly fizzled out. The second drive started with 3 runs before a fumble. And so on. Pre-deluge, when it was reaonably possible, we didn't test the deep middle (except maybe once, I might be not remembering every play).

I know they are just trying to "string some good plays together" -- that's what I think the problem is. They are trying to do what an efficient, experienced team with a good OL would do -- rip chunk plays at 5 yards a pop and methodically move down the field. As you said, we are not a good offensive football team so "stringing (many) plays together" seems unlikely.

I think we need to have some bombs (preferably off play action and/or off rollouts) and higher risk/reward plays, e.g., when it's 3rd and 3 or 2nd an 4. O'Korn is not effective at going through a bunch of reads and properly feeling the pocket while going through said reads. We've got some big, strong athletes -- less precision, less reliance on inside runs and more attempts at "out atheleting" them at least 3 or 4 times a game.

Reader71

October 10th, 2017 at 2:30 PM ^

I wasn’t arguing against your broader point. I just don’t think you can justifiably argue that we were going for a clock and possession focused offense. Looks very clear that we are just trying to get any kind of offense going and concerns like clock management and number of possessions are so far down the list there might be no list.

robpollard

October 10th, 2017 at 4:02 PM ^

I think they were just so happy the plays were, essentially, working that they kept with the "3 yards here, 6 yards there, 4 yards here." I'm not saying the game plan was to be the 1990 Giants vs the Buffalo Bills; it just seems to be where you end up when you try to "string plays together" and none of those plays are deep across the middle or highly-crafted RPS/gadget type things.

I want to see them purposefully be aggressive at least once a quarter. UM does not have a good OL, so relying on the running game (esp inside) is not going to work; we also (except for Perry) have young receivers and has been mentioned many times, they have trouble consistently and faithfully executing routes. We can't rely on DPJ (to pick one example) to be a posession receiver and tightrope-walking sideline route runner -- send him and Gentry or McKeon deep down the seams/middle, pick the one who's single covered and let 'er rip.

(Don't do this with Crawford, though -- he is horrible at judging 'high point' balls).

MGoStrength

October 12th, 2017 at 7:26 AM ^

My fear is the o-line can't hold up and O'Korn can't check down if his #1 target is covered.  He tends to stare down his primary reciever and force the ball into coverage.  That won't work if folks are playing zone coverage against you, and why wouldn't they?  I feel like your philosophy could turn into a lot more turnovers.  I don't think you can just throw it up without regard for coverages.

Indiana Blue

October 10th, 2017 at 12:31 PM ^

where the fullback dive has gone ?  Harbaugh year 1, used the FB dive with great success on 1st and 2nd downs and we all remember how effective the Panda was early last year.  It seems our running plays are all designed to be "home runs" whereas the FB dive was typically a 4 - 8 yard gain, yet I recall several 10+ gains.  The quick action on the FB dive utilizes zone blocking, which out OL should be able to do. 

Go Blue!  

JFW

October 10th, 2017 at 12:35 PM ^

why did they start going inside zone instead of Harbaugh's preferred traps? Why change scheme in mid stream when it might confuse the guys?? Because they had a chance to get Frey? 

spiff

October 10th, 2017 at 12:35 PM ^

but there are likely decent non-starters. And decent >>> black hole.

 

Not saying it is a answer, at least not a good answer. But I don't think it is correct to dismiss it out of hand.

 

I don't know how anyone could look at the RT position this year and be glad if we had passed on a hypothetical grad transfer at that spot, just because it was a grad transfer.

Papochronopolis

October 10th, 2017 at 12:40 PM ^

Lloyd / Tressell ball is probably the best option for us at this point. We should play better teams like MSU played us - have enough to scheme out 2-3 scores and otherwise play conservative and mistake free and lean on the D. Force the other team to be mistake free against havoc and if they can do it hats off to them.

stephenrjking

October 10th, 2017 at 12:41 PM ^

The clear and obvious answer from all of the "how does the team improve" speculation is that people hope there is some magic bullet solution ("Fire Drevno!" "Flip a guard to tackle!" "Insert [preferred backup] ASAP!") but nobody in the commentariat has any idea what the magic bullet solution is.

Anyone who is SURE they know what the problem is is almost certainly wrong. 

The best we can do is suppose some theories. I'm skeptical toward flipping around the OL; I think that if the coaches were interested in that possibility, that would have at least been floated around in preseason when it was clear to everyone inside that RT was a gigantic hole. It seems to me that the coaches prioritized guys learning their spots through reps and dismissed the frantic moving around to let Bredeson and Onwenu and Kugler firm up their understanding of their spots.

Results aside, that's probably the best way to build a quality line. Yeah, I know there are lines that are doing better with young guys, but this is still a young group whose key interior guys (Bredeson and Onwenu) would be, in an ideal world, learning behind seniors right now before they debut as redshirt sophomores next year. Instead, they have to execute everything now.

And my guess is that the general youth of the offense has motivated the OCs to throttle back on extra stuff so that the kids can learn their assignments better. Let's face it: The goal is to win games, but long-term this team has national title potential if the OL can gel, and the best way to maximize that potential is to allow guys to use the reps they're getting to learn for the future. If Bredeson is the LG of the future, let him play LG. 

 

bronxblue

October 10th, 2017 at 12:56 PM ^

I also think the minimal gain of moving guys around to slightly improve parts of the line would be damaging to the overall growth of the offensive line, which is what we've seen with Cole moving between tackle and center.  Cole at center probably makes the offense incrementally more stable and cohesive, but then you have both edges just giving up rushes all day.  It's why I like seeing them stick with Breedeson and Onwenu at their current spots, because that's where both seem to make the most sense.

MGoStrength

October 11th, 2017 at 8:14 PM ^

I don't think there is anything about Harbaugh that would indicate he would prioritize future wins over current wins.  He seems to be a guy, as most coaches are, that will do whatever is best to win the next game, then deal with the following game or season when that time arrives.  He approaches it that way with redshirts.  

 

I also don't think our offense is anywhere near national title potential.  Do you think we can win a national title with Speight as our QB, a RS freshman in Ruiz next year as our center, our two guards back, and JBB and Ulizio as our tackles?  We would need the Ray Lewis Ravens Super Bowl defense to be a championship quality team with that offense.

UMAmaizinBlue

October 10th, 2017 at 12:41 PM ^

Depressing TWO I've ever read. I know the team hasn't packed up on the season, but in a lot of ways I can feel fans' eyes already wandering to 2018/19 for signs of a good offense.

birdough

October 10th, 2017 at 12:49 PM ^

But I read this blog a lot and I think I have things figured out from what I have read this week:

 

The offense sucks because the RBs have no vision, can't pick up a blitz, fumble and don't drive through tackles

and

The offense sucks because our QBs can't process fast enough, throw too high with bad footwork, always take too long waiting for the slow developing routes and refuse to throw the easy checkdown?

and

The offense sucks because freshman wide receivers can't run good routes, don't block well and have stone hands?

and

The offense sucks because the O-Line is young, does not communicate well or pick up blitzes, and lacks athleticism on the outsides?

and 

The offense sucks because the playbook is too big and confusing, the coaches don't trust the players, the play calls are predictable and the three-headed OC monster is not getting it done?

But the Tight Ends are pretty ok, right?