back: noted [Patrick Barron]

Unverified Voracity Has Some Phonebooks Comment Count

Brian February 15th, 2023 at 11:43 AM

Phonebooks (not that phonebook) are here. Bill Connelly has released his preseason rankings for 2023. Michigan's up there, as you might imagine:

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Penn State? I guess Penn State. Drew uber Alles, per SP+. Notable that there is a pretty big gulf between #4 and #5 there, and and even bigger gulf between Penn State and the rest of the Big Ten. The next-best B10 team is Wisconsin at #25, followed by Iowa at 27 and Minnesota at 30. MSU is at 47.

One reason Michigan ranks so high is that they're 5th in returning production and that may undersell it a bit because Connelly's offensive formula has returning RB yards as just 6% of the total. I think that's generally reasonable since RBs are fairly plug and play these days but probably underrates the impact getting Donovan Edwards and Blake Corum back has for M. Let's read a nice thing:

Michigan (third in SP+ in 2022, fifth in returning production in 2023)
When FSU has a chance to be the story, FSU is the story. That's the way these things tend to work. But it's pretty jarring to see a team that made the CFP one year also rank in the top five in returning production the next.

The Wolverines are projected to return quarterback J.J. McCarthy, running back and Heisman hopeful Blake Corum and nine of their 12 defenders with 400-plus snaps. Plus, Jim Harbaugh made deft use of the portal, adding reinforcements to both the linebacking corps and an already-awesome offensive line. Both Ohio State and Penn State enter 2023 with hopes of preventing a third straight Big Ten title for Michigan, but they'll have to clear a really high bar.

Yeah. Clear our bar, please. FWIW, Connelly has Michigan at 50/50 to finish 11-1 or better, which means they're about 80-90% to enter the OSU game as a virtual playoff quarterfinal, give or take the backdoor route.

[After THE JUMP: Aussie gonna Aussie.]

Australia: still Australia 100 years ago. This man comes from a land down under and then pretends to be six feet under so that no one will know he played for Notre Dame:

Also the Kirkville Osteopaths.

Would you like nutrition fun facts? Or would you like to know that Cornelius Johnson is suspicious of lemons? I have the tweets for you.

I go to the Busch's on South Main that is near where a lot of the athletes live and so is frequently populated with people in head-to-toe M gear and sandals. I eagerly anticipate the day I walk in and Cornelius Johnson is owlishly glaring at the lemons.

A reason. We've noted that Michigan strenuously avoids offering up jump balls to their receivers, and this may be the reason why:

Some of that is just variance when your sample size is 18, but if you moaned "help him out" at some point last year the numbers back that up.

Lawyers love the NCAA. People are getting paid. Not players, but people. The latest lawsuit seeks to change that:

Wednesday's hearing in front of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 3rd Circuit in Philadelphia is the next step in the Johnson v. NCAA case, in which several former college athletes argue they should have been paid an hourly wage like other student workers on their campuses. The NCAA contends that its business is unique and that the normal rules that determine whether someone fits the definition of an employee don't make sense for college athletes. The appellate judges will eventually decide whether the standard tests for employee status should be applied to college athletes and their schools.

"This particular case is flying under the radar compared to some of the others we hear about much more frequently, but it's important," said Sarah Wake, who advises universities on athletic compliance issues in her role as an attorney at McGuireWoods.

The NCAA has won these cases in the past but the Supreme Court decision in Alston has people thinking that the doors have opened up for a challenge like this to succeed at some point.

What is the point of anything, scouting edition. Fascinating Athletic article on scouting in soccer and whether it, you know, works in any way whatsoever:

Based on the studies of hiring managers, Bergkamp believed that giving scouts a structured scorecard like the one described above would make their player assessments more reliable than scouts who used a holistic, intuitive method. Working with a team of researchers from the University of Groningen in his homeland, Bergkamp recruited about a hundred scouts and coaches affiliated with the Dutch Football Association and professional clubs to participate in a study that, he hoped, would point to a better way to scout.

The professional raters were asked to imagine they were trying to find a young full-back for a mid-table club in the Eredivisie (Dutch football’s top division). They would watch half an hour of Wyscout clips of one random player from a pool of 25, rate his performances and make a prediction about how he would develop.

Some of the raters were simply asked to grade the player’s overall performance in the clips they watched on a seven-point scale. Others were given a list of eight tasks relevant to the full-back position, such as whether the player was “available to stop the counter, apply pressure, and retain compactness” during defensive transitions. Raters in this structured group graded the player on each task, then gave their overall score just like the unstructured group.

When his team analyzed the scores, Bergkamp was taken aback by what they showed. “‘Surprising’ is the word, I would say,” he said, when asked to describe the results.

Raters who gave only an overall score could barely agree with one another on how well a player had performed, as the researchers might have expected. But the grades from the group that used a carefully designed scorecard disagreed even more. Even if you ignored the second group’s overall ratings and averaged their eight specific task scores together instead, there was little consensus among the scouts on what they had seen.

Anyone who has ventured onto a soccer message board in the aftermath of the game to find it filled with asburd takes that defy all reason can relate. Football, basketball, usually hockey: these games generally resolve into some sort of consensus. There are disagreements, naturally, but you can say something like "Jett Howard is good offensively but poor defensively" and you will not find a legion of people who swear to the blood god that the exact opposite is true. Try espousing any opinion about the USMNT in the aftermath of the World Cup and you will be beset with those legions.

This is what happens when there is a sport where the commonly accepted statistics are so rudimentary that many players on the field simply have none. It's like if everyone except one guy was an OL.

Steve Holtz's story. Paula Weston on the incredibly scary Steve Holtz situation:

“He said that all of a sudden it stopped, and then he opened the door, and I was sitting, having a seizure.”

The housemates called 9-1-1. The police arrived and asked if there was any chance of drug use. (There wasn’t.) Could someone have been in the house with Holtz, they wanted to know. (Other than his girlfriend Emma, very unlikely.) Could this be a suicide attempt? (No.)

An ambulance took Holtz to the University of Michigan hospital, where he was admitted to the ICU. “They think that I had another seizure in the ambulance as well,” said Holtz. “I had two seizures that they know of. They think I could have been having seizures all day that day because of my condition when they found me.”

Soon after being admitted to ICU, Holtz was intubated and put in a medically induced coma. “I’m not sure of the duration,” said Holtz. “A couple of days.”

For him to return to the ice and immediately get booted out of a game with 22 penalty minutes is an inspiration to shit-talkers everywhere. Also it emphasizes the crazy amount of adversity this hockey team has endured to get where it is today.

On Naurato. He's profiled by Ryan Zuke at MLive; got a little Harbaugh in him:

During a practice last month, a small group of players had remained on the ice afterward to play rebound, a popular game many teams play after practices which pits a goalie against the players. A player will line up at the hash marks while 5-7 others will surround the goalie. The objective is for the shooter to score or at least shoot to create a rebound that one of the other players can put in the net before the goalie either covers the puck or deflects it away.

Naurato joined the group and scored on his first two shots, prompting cheers and stick taps from players. While most head coaches will leave the ice right after practice to begin preparations for upcoming games, Naurato views the extra time as another opportunity to bond with players.

“I don’t know if there’s a head coach at the junior, college or pro level that stays on the ice and plays games with the guys,” he said. “I love doing it. I want to stay and mess around and act like I’m a player or a kid, but more importantly, it’s time spent with them.”

Still no movement on the interim tag, but supposedly after the regular season he'll be re-evaluated.

Etc.: Michigan is building big dorms again. Hockey NIL collective. UM-Flint is losing enrollment rapidly. Details on why the Big Ten is sitting so pretty in Pairwise. PNR defense breaks down. ND can't cover a buyout to get a new OC.

Comments

BTB grad

February 15th, 2023 at 5:49 PM ^

He gives Michigan a 46% chance to finish 11-1 or better based on his data. OSU has only finished worse than 11-1 in the regular season twice (2017, 2021) in that past 11 seasons since Meyer & Day have been in charge, and even those two seasons they ended 10-2. They were a made FG away from defeating the eventual national champions. It’s not that ridiculous. They’ve got some questions to answer and some things to fix, but their program isn’t falling apart.

stephenrjking

February 15th, 2023 at 12:42 PM ^

The contested catch stat is interesting. Bell actually got quite a few contested opportunities and didn't do much with them. My guess here is that it's a function of Bell being the guy JJ trusted, so he got a lot of rough opportunities.

As we has out exactly why the passing game is how it is, it's worth asking if this is a two-sided equation: On one side, you have guys who aren't very good at contested catches (almost certainly true), making the offense gun-shy about throwing passes that would be contested. On the other side, how much of this is a consequence of a coaching preference to throw to guys that are schemed to be wide open, rather than trusting receivers to win contested matchups? Anyone who has griped about the lack of targes to Nico Collins can probably imagine that maybe the staff doesn't like those kinds of passes, and while high-point balls to tight tends (to name one example) aren't unheard of, it does seem to be less of a practice with this offense.

And when you have less of an emphasis, you have less coaching for those scenarios. So the players aren't as good at it in part because the staff isn't developing that skillset. 

Lest someone think this is unique to Michigan, there's another offense that functions that way that is clearly visible in those stats: Tennessee, who lit up teams like Alabama this year. Jalin Hyatt had an electric season and only faced 5 contested passes all season long. That's an offense that runs simple concepts and asks the QB to throw to the guy that is hand-wavingly wide open. 

**

That soccer scouting bit is funny. But it rings true to me; I was just looking at player ratings for one of the two recent Man U-Leeds games, and one thing that was notable is that there was a wiiiiide gulf in the evaluation of several Man U players between a couple of different sites. Just fans doing single digit player ratings, of course, but it's interesting how guys can watch the same game and think completely different things about what is going on. 

Greatgig

February 16th, 2023 at 10:28 AM ^

The thing that stood out to me regarding the contested catches, was that Ohio doesn't have anyone on the list. I often watch college games and think, 'dang, how is that guy so wide open?' Then, I lament about how Michigan's guys always seem blanketed. 

This chart seems to confirm A reason for Ohio's quarterbacks limited success in the NFL but also has me wishing Michigan could do better at scheming guys wide open. 

The list also seems to show that the bigger you are, the more opportunities you'll have to be covered and thus, attempt a contested catch. 

stephenrjking

February 15th, 2023 at 12:44 PM ^

BTW hard to argue against retaining Naurato right now. I will accept the possibility that he'll get the full job after the season, but recent foot-dragging from the department in other areas makes me concerned that they may just not be doing stuff that they are perfectly able to do now. 

The hockey team is coming together down the stretch, and Naurato has held together a difficult situation and things look pretty good. 

Don

February 15th, 2023 at 2:10 PM ^

It's entirely possible that Manuel is already well down the road of putting together a full-time HC package for Naurato, but his insistence on maintaining a communications posture that makes the Sphinx at Giza look like a blabbermouth creates an absolute vacuum of information about his thinking process.

Has Manuel made any public comments, however brief, in any forum, about Naurato or the hockey team's achievements so far this season?

1VaBlue1

February 15th, 2023 at 12:58 PM ^

I don't get the scouting study - each scout watched a random player.  Wouldn't the results be more consistent if each scout watched the same player he thought was chosen at random?  I feel like different scouts would score different players differently.

griffinm9

February 15th, 2023 at 1:01 PM ^

"For him to return to the ice and immediately get booted out of a game with 22 penalty minutes is an inspiration to shit-talkers everywhere."

 

This is the quote of the week.

jimmyshi03

February 15th, 2023 at 1:25 PM ^

I do wonder if SP+ might have a built in bias in favor of returning production from freshmen, since I'd imagine it assumes a certain amount of growth between first and second season and so much of PSU's rushing output came from the two freshmen,

Blue Vet

February 15th, 2023 at 1:33 PM ^

I loved teaching at UM-Fllint. The diversity of students-tradition college age, older parents, grandparents and racially-enlivened classroom discussion. 

Family stories from interviewing the oldest living member of the family yielded an amazing range: a family the had lived near a Saddam Hussein’s prison and hearing screams from torture; an auntie whose family had bee sharecroppers in Mississippi and she got sick to avoid work before the prom but then too sick to go. 

goblu330

February 15th, 2023 at 2:39 PM ^

It was equally interesting and engaging as a student.  Some of the best open debate and back and forth dialogue I have ever had with people completely different from me in nearly every way.  UM Flint taught open-mindedness in a way that I am not sure many Universities do, in a way that was an intentional part of the curriculum.  And not the "open-mindedness" of today that is distinctly and aggressively closed-minded, but the real thing.

njvictor

February 15th, 2023 at 1:35 PM ^

I understand that the QB position in Ryan Day's offense seems to be pretty plug and play at this point, but with OSU's new QB, I think it's pretty bogus to put OSU over Michigan especially after the last 2 years

ShadowStorm33

February 15th, 2023 at 1:57 PM ^

No, by all means please put OSU over us. The team knows we can beat them, so there's nothing to be gained by us being the favorite. I'd much rather play an overconfident OSU that thinks we only won because of a few fluke plays than an underdog OSU with a chip on their shoulder (rewatch their game against UGA if you need a reminder of what that can look like)...

Don

February 15th, 2023 at 2:03 PM ^

"several former college athletes argue they should have been paid an hourly wage like other student workers on their campuses. The NCAA contends that its business is unique and that the normal rules that determine whether someone fits the definition of an employee don't make sense for college athletes."

At the vast majority of universities with full athletic programs, student athletes—especially those in the four major sports, especially football and basketball—are routinely portrayed in university marketing material, whether in print or in digital media. The exploits of championship teams are routinely depicted in video clips and testimonials.

In addition, it's pretty common for alumni contributions to jump to their institutions when one of the teams enjoys unusual success, so the hours that student athletes put in on their sports are directly aiding the fundraising of these institutions.

It's also true that virtually every one of these institutions has large numbers of non-athletes working in various marketing capacities. At a place like Michigan, not only are there marketing people at the top administrative level of the entire university, there are marketing offices in every one of the individual schools.

None of these non-athlete marketing people are creating value—they're taking the value of the efforts and achievements of university faculty, students, researchers, and athletes and communicating that value to the outside world. And many of these non-athlete marketing and fundraising people are paid extremely well.

So why in hell should student athletes not be compensated in some fashion as university marketing employees? 

 

bronxblue

February 15th, 2023 at 3:27 PM ^

The NCAA administration being full of lawyers and businesspeople seemingly being completely caught off guard by the legal defeats they've suffered trying to maintain the myth of amateurism remains shocked to me.  I get you don't want the gravy train to stop but how is this a surprise to anyone involved that at some point free-ish labor would want to get a piece of the billions they help generate?

Michigan and OSU basically being ranked equally makes sense - OSU has maybe the most talented WR corps in the nation and that's going to cover up for what I assume will be some slight growing pains at QB.  It's part of the reason I absolutely wouldn't waste an early first-round pick on an OSU QB because it is so difficult to know how they'll translate without the safety net of elite skill position players, but as it relates to college it makes sense.  And defensively they were young this year so not a shocker they should be better.  But I still like UM at home competing for yet another shot at the playoffs.  Also, the PSU love seems to be based on the idea that Allar will be better than Clifford, which is absolutely not a given and drastically underrates how good Clifford was as a 9th-year QB.

OldSchoolWolverine

February 15th, 2023 at 4:15 PM ^

A few things... grapefruit is also a hybrid. Body goes into a funk trying to digest it, and any medicine you might be taking the efficacy gore through the roof.

Regarding our wrs and contested balls or lack thereof.  That's a lam chicken or egg argument.   Collins was a great ball contestor and we still never three to him. It's more the philosophy here than the players. 

Hab

February 15th, 2023 at 4:45 PM ^

Question... how does the site owner announce he's taking a vacation?

Answer... by linking to a FREEP article!!!! (dorm going in on Elbel field).  For SHAME!

leidlein

February 15th, 2023 at 6:24 PM ^

My immediate reaction to this was the chart, "Penn State #5 really?"

Then I read Brian's next line, exact same sentiment, and made me laugh out loud. Good thing I was on mute during that Teams call. Would have been embarrassing. 

rice4114

February 15th, 2023 at 7:18 PM ^

The BIG ten had an opportunity to not do the SECs heavy lifting this year by breaking up OSU, UM, and Penn state into different divisions. Along with playing 1 less conference game.

They decided a half day of meetings wasnt worth the trouble.

Imagine Georgia, Bama, and Clemson in the same division. That wouldve been rectified by the SEC on February first if it ever came to be. Yes I know Clemson isnt in the SEC but couldnt think of a 3rd team comparable to PSU in the SEC.

patrickdolan

February 15th, 2023 at 10:08 PM ^

"Raters who gave only an overall score could barely agree with one another on how well a player had performed, as the researchers might have expected. But the grades from the group that used a carefully designed scorecard disagreed even more. Even if you ignored the second group’s overall ratings and averaged their eight specific task scores together instead, there was little consensus among the scouts on what they had seen."

Wait until they find out about inter-rater reliability in college grading, especially in the humanities.

jeepnut

February 15th, 2023 at 10:18 PM ^

Fun fact: I went to undergrad in Kirksville, MO. Kirksville is where osteopathic medicine was founded, so it makes sense the team was called the osteopaths. Aside from that, there’s not much else to Kirksville other than Pam from the office is an alumni of the same undergrad I went to. 

outsidethebox

February 16th, 2023 at 8:01 AM ^

There are not nearly as many givens in sports as the viewing public believes there are. The margin of error between winning and losing any contest at the level of competition that Michigan plays is very small. "Objectively" the '23 Michigan football team is a top five program. However, they are still going to have to show up and win every contest on the field of play-and make such a ranking a reality. The last two seasons give much hope to the fans of the Wolverines. I would suggest that Michigan's returning top 30 players are better than OSU's...and Georgia's an Alabama's for that matter. We will see-the folks making these preseason predictions are no more informed or knowledgeable than the average fan. 

Rufus X

February 16th, 2023 at 12:41 PM ^

So let me get this straight... Despite the fact that NIL has created massive wealth for NCAA football players, Brian still insists that "People are getting paid. Not players, but people."

Have I got that right? We now have the transfer protocol and NIL funding that treats players as a completely different class of people as their fellow students, gives them exceptional bargaining power to control their own destinies (thus completely changing the entire 'feel' of college sports)?  

But that's still not enough for the hand-wringing self righteous author? 

Got it.