Kwity Paye is the freakiest person of 2020... uh football edition [Patrick Barron]

Unverified Voracity Has To Catch This Baby Comment Count

Brian July 22nd, 2020 at 11:53 AM

Masterpieces of #coronacontent. As our national sanity declines in daily increments expect more and more pieces borne out of a feverish desperation. Like this from Holly Anderson and Ryan Nanni about the 1997 Harrison Ford vehicle Air Force One, which features a Michigan-Notre Dame game as part of its background:

For you unlettered souls who have never experienced this film, it goes like this: Harrison Ford is the American president; he’s in Russia on a state visit, and on the way back his plane is taken over by a band of ultra-nationalist rebels led by Gary Oldman. President Harrison Ford’s family is on the plane, along with a good chunk of his Cabinet, and the rebels want their separatist general released from prison or they’ll shoot everybody.

What they don’t know is, everybody on the plane already wants to shoot everybody else, because Notre Dame and Michigan are playing football on television.

RYAN: This is arguably the most relatable aspect of the film. Most of us will never know the burden of managing international affairs at the highest level, and while we do worry about taking care of our families, “foil hijackers” comes in far below “manage child’s expectations about becoming a pro soccer player.” Traveling while your team is playing? That’s a thing I’ve lived, and I bet you have, too. I don’t know if it’s the change to routine, the combination of game stress and travel stress, or low air pressure, but watching a game you care about on a plane amplifies the experience. And not in a good way.

Apparently there is a point in this movie where someone yells "14-13 Michigan, all right!" This would never happen. There is no Michigan fan who would discover Michigan is leading by one point and exclaim happily.

Instead they would envision the various and terrible ways in which that slenderest of leads could be lost. A punt that corkscrews sideways, setting up a short field. Locusts eating the left guard's jersey. Someone drops a baby out of a plane that the quarterback has to catch instead of holding onto the ball. The entire team is crippled by explosive toenail growth. Etc.

[After THE JUMP: three-cone drill numbers!]

I was not expecting this. Bruce Feldman's annual "freaks" list has had Michigan players in the top five before. IIRC Rashan Gary was #1, because it would be impossible to put anyone else up there as long as Gary was in college. But in years past the guys who've made the list have been obvious. This is non-obvious:

1. Kwity Paye, Michigan, defensive end

Freakiest attribute: Speed in the 3-cone drill

The Wolverines have a few special athletes on their defensive line (Aidan Hutchinson also possesses impressive agility for his size), but the 6-4, 271-pound Paye (50 tackles, 12.5 for loss, 6.5 sacks) has generated a lot of buzz among the NFL scouting community for some remarkable wheels. He clocked the second-best 3-cone time on the team at a blistering 6.37 seconds, which would have topped anyone at the 2020 combine. Paye’s 40 is also moving at 4.57, with a solid 34-inch vertical and 30 reps on the bench press. Paye’s 40 time and 4.15 pro shuttle time are better than any D-lineman or edge player who tested at the 2020 combine. His 11.3 time in the 60-yard shuttle is also elite.

Paye, a former high school running back who reported to Ann Arbor at 228 pounds, was a member of a state championship 4×100 meter relay team in high school and also won a state title in the long jump, going 21 feet, 5 inches as a junior. He has a rare blend of strength, control and balance and his change of direction is probably even better than former Wolverine Freak Rashan Gary.

I like Paye about as much as Pro Football Focus, which graded him as the top returning DE in the conference. I'm not sure about comparisons to Gary.

One other Wolverine made the list: Nico Collins. No whiz-bang numbers except a claimed 4.4 40 and a note on how Gattis and company "rave about his toughness and body control" and let's get this guy more than 60 targets please.

Another thing I learned in this article: LSU has a receiver named "Racey McMath" who claims 4.3 40s.

This should be fine, we can rely on the NCAA's measured leadership. Chris Hinton's parents Mya and Chris appeared on Real Sports on Tuesday. They are not particularly happy about college football goings-on:

“As a parent of a student athlete, actually, it pissed me off,” Chris [the elder] said on Real Sports.

“... Why can’t there be some kind of universal procedures, protocol, for integrating our sons back to campus?”

This comes after the Hintons appealed to the NCAA, expressing their concerns. They said they received a dismissive response back, and the most frustrating part is the lack of input from players and their parents that the NCAA has allowed.

“The players, who probably have as much to lose as anybody, had no voice, were voiceless,” Chris said. “And as parents, we felt the same as the kids — we were voiceless.” …

"Just based on statistics somebody — somebody’s kid’s gonna die,” Chris said. “And so the numbers are screaming ‘pump the brakes.’ ”

As a result the younger Hinton may not play this year. I'm going to whistle past that particular graveyard, thanks.

This is what "stack and shed" means. If you've ever wondered exactly what that bit of football jargon refers to, here is the briefest possible explainer:

We tend to refer to that move as "push-pull" when it happens on the defensive line and "stack and shed" when a linebacker is taking on a blocker.

Late game basketball game theory gets weirder. Ken Pomeroy and Jonathan Safir have put together a study on intentionally fouling with a lead late in a basketball game. "Oh, I'm #teamFoul when up three," you say. But no! This is a study about fouling when up two. (And also up one and even tied.)

It turns out there's a relatively wide window in which this is a good idea. Here's their graph about when to foul when up two:

foul2-768x553

So: if you're playing a team exactly as good as you and someone is a 62% shooter or worse, fouling will help you win. If you're in the single bonus that goes up to 66%.

Big Ten players who you'd want to put on the line last year included Myles Johnson, Joey Brunk, Trevion Williams, Nojel Eastern, Mike Watkins, Zavier Simpson, Giorgi Bezhanishvili, Jamari Wheeler, Jacob Young, and about half of Nebraska's roster. Many of those guys are significantly below the break-even point.

I don't expect this is going to be a frequent gambit any time soon. ALso I've been guilty of overplaying the importance of marginal changes to strategy. Nonetheless, I find the analysis to be Cool. 

Recommended twitter thread. If you do not understand this, congratulations: you are not terminally online. You have closed all the browser tabs and had a face to face conversation at some point. The rest of us will console ourselves with quite a chuckle.

Everything you wanted to know about Michigan's penalty kill. Bailey Johnson has put together a dataset on Michigan's PK and will star posting insights gleaned from it shortly. Looking forward to it: actual data/charting in hockey is almost exclusively limited to the teams themselves.

Etc.: David Ojabo is back in the United States. Congratulations? More on what Livers's return means. The Compher/Connor/Motte line was the heart of college hockey's best powerplay in the last eight years. BEN MASON is back where he belongs. SI has an excerpt from Ed O'Bannon's book about his lawsuit against the NCAA.

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Comments

NotADuck

July 22nd, 2020 at 1:12 PM ^

I googled it and apparently "dril tweets" are tweets from the twitter account "@dril" or "wint" as his screen name states.  The account is known for its humor.

I'm 28 years old, relatively young in my opinion, and I've never heard of this.  Then again I don't have a twitter account and even after reading the thread (which was funny) I still have no desire to create one.

The Nebraska, Iowa, and Ohio State tweets got me the most.

Other Andrew

July 22nd, 2020 at 12:15 PM ^

I’ve seen this movie recently and I believe the “14-13 Michigan!” comment was made after the game had finished as the Prez was trying to watch on tape delay.

Also, I believe he was just a toadie suck-up because a real fan would be more wary of not spoiling it.

Also the First Lady’s acting is... not spectacular.

Go Blue!

Detroit Dan

July 22nd, 2020 at 12:18 PM ^

When will they decide on Chaundee?  This is such a fine name that they must approve to play immediately.  Plus -- a big dude who can shoot!

AC1997

July 22nd, 2020 at 1:42 PM ^

When Brian started talking about "when to foul" I thought we were going to get into the method that TBT uses to end games (Elam Ending) instead of the foul fest.  That's been an interesting development that I like more than I thought.

bronxblue

July 22nd, 2020 at 1:43 PM ^

Paye winning a long jump title seems made up despite evidence it clearly happened 

Also, AF1 and it's portrayal of a president is exactly how every guy thinks he'd be in danger.  Like, you could stop a mugger and still tell "Get off my plane"

LKLIII

July 22nd, 2020 at 4:38 PM ^

Yeah, somewhere else I read Dad & Mom Hinton saying that potentially neither son would play this year if the NCAA didn't get their act together.

But in Brian's "whistling past the graveyard" comment, he talks about, "...the younger Hinton..." possibly not playing this year. So.....

Is Brian talking about just *Myles* Hinton (younger brother to Chris, slated to play at Stanford) maybe not playing this year? If yes, then what's the differentiator betweeen Myles Hinton of Stanford not playing but our own Chris Hinton of Michigan playing?

Or is Brian simply forgetting about Myles & using, "....the younger Hinton..." to distinguish between Chris Hinton, Sr. & Michigan's own Chris Hinton, Jr.?

schreibee

July 22nd, 2020 at 4:40 PM ^

Didn't it only refer to Myles not playing?

Did I totally read that wrong?

EDIT: Nevermind, the comment above elaborates in detail about the several possible interpretations.,. and confirms that none of them are clearly spelled out. So let's go on the working assumption Brian meant the younger Chris Hinton.

Not good!

TrueBlue2003

July 22nd, 2020 at 5:39 PM ^

That's how I read it but I think it's probably referring to Chris Jr. given the context (Chris Sr. comments).

I wonder what Hinton thinks about how Michigan is handling things.  They're the ones responsible for 99% of their sons time during a game week (and 100% leading up to the season).  And they're partially responsible for the 1% spent playing a game.  And even the opponent isn't really regulated by the NCAA.  It's partially up to Michigan to ensure opponents are doing things correctly in the terms of protocol and could be done on a conference level too.

The NCAA doesn't really have much to do with a conference only season.  The school and the conference are in better position to put protocols in place.

Would have liked to know how he feels about how Michigan is handling things.

AC1997

July 22nd, 2020 at 1:54 PM ^

Some friends and I have been discussing the Kwity Paye piece the last couple of days.  Most of us had a similar reaction to Brian in that we love Paye and he's an asset to the team.....but come on, he's not in the Gary/Winovich/Uche/Hurst class.  

But....through their first 3 seasons on campus....

  • Gary - 34 games, 119 tackles, 23 TFL, 9.5 Sacks
  • Paye - 24 games, 81 tackles, 19.5 TFL, 9.5 Sacks
  • Hurst - 28 games, 71 tackles, 19 TFL, 8 Sacks
  • Wormley - 30 games, 83 tackles, 24 TFL, 12 Sacks
  • Charlton - 22 games, 51 tackles, 14.5 TFL, 9 Sacks
  • Winovich - 28 games, 105 tackles, 27.5 TFL, 13.5 Sacks
  • Clark - 33 games, 73 tackles, 23 TFL, 7 Sacks

Everyone on that list is playing in an NFL rotation except Paye.  Maybe we've been underestimating him all this time because someone flashier is on the other DE spot or because he was a random East Coast 3-star instead of a 4.5-Star from the South.  

Wolverine In Exile

July 22nd, 2020 at 2:03 PM ^

My god if there was ever a team to install a hockey version of "back the bus up" soccer strategy, it was that CCM line team. Just put all five bodies in front of the goalie and wait until the opponent commits stupid college team penalty, then let CCM line go out there and score. Such a waste that year.

MGoBlue96

July 22nd, 2020 at 3:15 PM ^

Would not fault any player who sits out if there is season, but Chris Hinton not playing at a position that needs to improve from last year would definitely fit right it in the dong punches suffered the last several years. Though honestly if a season is played I have moved to the mindset that it will not be a legit season anyways and I will not care as much about the result as a normal season. It is clown side show of a season if it happens at this point. Would just be grateful to see some football regardless of the outcome honestly.

TrueBlue2003

July 22nd, 2020 at 3:27 PM ^

I think comparisons to Gary are surprisingly spot on.  He's a late-blooming, slightly smaller Gary but they're both:

  • Supposedly freaky fast/quick/athletic for their size
  • and yet not nearly as good as you might expect at producing sacks given that athleticism
  • but are extremely good against the run (would argue Paye is even better/more disciplined here)

I mean, are these stats meaningfully different?

Player A: 50 tackles, 12.5 TFLs, 6.5 sacks

Player B: 58 tackles, 11.5 TFLs, 5.5. sacks

Player A is Paye's junior year in 12 games, Player B is Gary's sophomore year in which he played 13 games (as opposed to his junior year in which he played only 9 games and his production was worse on a per game basis but that was injury riddled).

The biggest real difference is the expectations they each had going in.

MGoBlue96

July 22nd, 2020 at 3:31 PM ^

Agreed, different expectations coming in but functionally the same player through their junior seasons. Paye could definitely up his sack numbers if he improved his pass rushing moves/technique and could potentially leave as the more complete player honestly. Never felt that Gary's pass rush technique really improved at all, though to be fair the bum shoulder really killed his junior season. 

Detroit Dan

July 23rd, 2020 at 1:54 AM ^

Yes, I'd give Paye the edge over Gary.  Also, Winovich, Hurst, Wormley, and others listed above.  Nothing against Gary who did his job at Michigan, but going by the actual results produced.  It's cruel to some extent, but the fact that Gary was not good as a junior because of injury is not a factor.  We'll see who ends up the best as a pro, but Gary was not dominant in college compared to the others mentioned here.  Paye as a senior will be better than Gary as a senior, because Gary went pro after his injury ridden junior season.  Testing scores only mean so much. 

I watched the movie "Friday Night Lights" the other day.  The best athlete was injured and did not play much over the season covered by the movie.  So the most amazing athlete was not a factor because one who lives by the physicality can also die by the physicality.  Gary was injured as a junior and skipped his senior year.  This is not his fault, but his body let him down and others have surpassed him as Michigan defensive line players.

Sambojangles

July 22nd, 2020 at 3:56 PM ^

Waste? In the one year of CCM we won the Big Ten Tournament and beat Notre Dame in the NCAA tournament, before losing to eventual champion North Dakota. That team was really good and hung a banner, I don’t really consider it a waste. 

BLUEinRockford

July 22nd, 2020 at 5:23 PM ^

Always liked the name Kwity Paye. Just the way it rolls of your tongue. And the sack by Kwity Paye has a nice ring to it. Let's hope there's football this year and he has a "freakish" season.

GO BLUE ??