Total guess, but strongly suspect he had a concussion. He looked like he hit his head on the boards on the big hit by their giant 25 year old whose name I'm blanking on.
If that's the case, then fortunately or unfortunately there's not a concrete time frame. Fingers crossed.
Great stuff as always. The one thing I disagree with is that Nar was on easy mode last year. Yeah having Adam Fantilli and Luke Hughes makes it easier. But what he had to deal with:
Taking over in August and having to implement his system, get the analytics team spun up, his system implemented, an assistant hired, etc.
"The Report" and all that awkwardness
Ian Hume passing away
Steven Holtz almost passing away and the virus that severely impacted 2-3 weekends
Losing the goalie coach mid-season and having to take that on.
Having to coach and recruit with an interim tag on, meaning he didn't have any job security if things went badly.
There are a couple other things as well, but to me it's a dang miracle that team played as well as they did with everything going on and I think it says a ton about Nar and his ability to coach a team, be a leader, and keep them moving forward in the face of adversity.
I don't think he gets near enough credit for the job he did last year.
The only thing I could think of was that they had an angle that showed the initial shot in the net when Barzo moved his legs back. But then they gave the goal to the guy who crashed the net and poked it in after the whistle, so, no.
Now the only explanation I can come up with is that they reviewed it solely for "was the puck in the net" and didn't consider "Hey I blew the whistle. Did I blow the whistle before the puck went in?" and Nar would have needed to challenge that. Which would be stupid, but knowing this conference I wouldn't put it past em.
It's also sweet that that was an automatic review, but ours would have required a challenge a minute into the game, which would have meant that we couldn't challenge any of the other Big Ten BS the rest of the game without risking a penalty.
Augustine gets way too much love for his actual performance this season. He has an insanely high ceiling, he's going to be a stud for them next year, and he definitely won some games for them this year, but he has like a 3.53 goals against vs tournament teams this year. I think Barzo is like 3.37.
He got most outstanding player in the BTT for beating a mid OSU team and getting kind of shelled by us? It's a little weird.
They portaled a bunch of guys Nightingale had a previous relationship with, added one of the two best goalies in the class, and were able to take a future top 3 pick on defense that we weren't going to be able to get into school (and, supposedly, gave him a nice NIL deal).
This was always going to be a bit of a down year since this class was the one particularly hurt by the coaching change. Having the injuries we've had also didn't help. I legit think we'd have 2-3 more wins with a healthy Edwards all season. Hallum was a sneaky big loss, they missed McGroarty a bunch, we probably beat Minny Sat with Barzo, Tyler Duke had a couple ill-timed injuries.
Barzo has largely been fine, but man it hurt to have Augustine flip (he's had a few FABULOUS games and is obv gonna be tough for the foreseeable future, but his numbers for the year aren't really that great....) and then have Fowler change his mind at the last second to go to BC. (I'm not sure if he was a silent commit or not, but Michigan was definitely expecting him to commit when he announced.)
None of the goals in the Qpac game had anything to do with him coming out to play the puck/"wandering".
1) He made a save, was slow to react to it going over the net, and got banked as he was sliding back to his crease.
2) Breakaway
3) Very slow to react to the puck going behind the net off a save he made. Got banked again and he was kind of just chilling.
4) Whiffed on a shot from the boards.
5) ENG
It blows my mind the stuff people make up and then blame the coach for.
I'm sure it hurt him to not have a goalie coach for a large chunk of the season. But he wasn't losing his stick, facing the wrong way, etc. only after we didn't have one anymore. He was weird last year and I'm glad he's gotten through it and is doing well. We need a goalie in the league.
People need to stop projecting the failures of the basketball program onto hockey. This was always going to be a bit of a tougher year since this was the recruiting class that was really hurt by the coaching transition (and Warde taking his ole sweet time dealing with the report). Moldenhauer and Schifsky have been good, but certainly not enough to replace what we lost.
It's a strike against the staff if they miss the tournament this year, but they'd have easily made it without the rash of injuries in the first half. (Our PK has to be 15 points higher since Edwards has come back.) Unfortunately that killed their margin for error and they just haven't been quite good enough night in and night out against good teams.
Just don't make it a trend. Mel made the Frozen Four in his first year and then missed the tournament in his second year too.
Providence beat Denver tonight and UMass won at Mankato. I know the latter is going to be down this year from where they have been, but those are still two nice wins.
Neither of those losses are going to end up looking bad on us.
McMahon said that a WHL team is courting Muckalt as their Head Coach, so we'll see on that one.
Also, did we ever talk about Levshunov from GB? He is reportedly considering Mich, MSU, and Vermont and would be coming in this season. He is a potential top 3 pick next year and had numbers comparable to Power's in the USHL. He'd be a MASSIVE add, especially now.
I'll believe that we can get a guy who doesn't speak a ton of English into school when I see it. The other two schools likely don't have that issue. But man he'd be a huge add.
Truscott, Casey, Edwards, Duke, Warren, Levshunov as your top 6 is a national championship winning D corps.
After he got benched for a game, he went the last 13 games with only one minor penalty (and that one was bullllllllll). Pretty impressive turnaround and, I'd say, message received. Fingers crossed he carries that through to the new season.
Wellllllll Brännman doesn't have a block M on the Dubuque line chart tonight so I guess he isn't coming.
I guess that explains how we'd fit Peck with potentially Slavick from the NTDP who thought to favor Michigan. But it again raises some question marks for next year and then the year after you're looking at Peck/West.
Strauss Mann posted a .932 and Portillo posted a .915 in their last season in the USHL for comparison. Brannman doesn’t project to either of their levels.
I guess I more or less agree he's a total question mark, but just because he's a freshman as opposed to anything to do with his stats. Most freshmen goalies are going to be. In the top 30 in save % this year in the ncaa there were three freshmen. The best one didn't have good raw numbers in the ushl, one played in the NAHL, and the third also didn't have good numbers in the USHL.
I just wouldn't draw any conclusions period without having seen Brännman or without knowing more about the team he's playing on. If he was on Fargo and had a 0.915 I wouldn't necessarily feel better or worse about him than I do about him having a 0.901 on Dubuque.
The fact that he's 36 pts higher in save percentage than the guy he shares the net with (who was established on the team and is committed to Denver), that he's more or less taken over the net, the fact that he selected to be the backup at World Juniors for Sweden are definitely some points in his favor.
Even the top guys in ushl save percentage have been a mixed bag moving forward. If you look at the top 5 each year you have the Dobeses of the world, but you also have guys who have barely played for ND, AIC, Cornell, etc.
If you want to look at guys above a 0.915 going back 4 or 5 years you have:
A kid who split time for Uconn this year and was fine.
Schmid who did it twice and went to the AHL.
Jaxson Stauber who was a 3rd year USHL guy after he left Kato and went back to the ushl. He ended up being solid for Providence.
A dude who stunk for Bentley
Portillo
Isaiah Saville who was thoroughly average for Omaha (3 years of 0.907)
Brandon Bussi who was fine for WMU.
That's going back to 18-19. 7 guys/8 seasons. And none of them that I'd really consider to be stars. Maybe Schmid since he went right to the pros and has gotten 20 NHL games but not guys coming into college and dominating.
(Then the year Strauss had a 0.932 there were 8 guys above 0.915 that year alone. Weird. And even Strauss split time as a freshman and had a sub 0.900 save percentage.)
It's a crapshoot. Goalies are crapshoots. Taking Barczewski gives you better odds that someone is good. It gives you better odds your backup is good or that you have a 1a/1b without committing long term.
I'm completely with you that he's a big question mark. I would have been driving the bus on Michigan needing to portal a goalie and I'm very happy we got one. I just disagree with the reasoning behind saying he's a question mark. Everything I've seen is that he's been very good overall for Dubuque and is a big reason they're in a playoff position. I'm actually really excited to see him.
A third paid assistant was approved by the ncaa, so I'd imagine it'll be a lot easier to make that happen. Assuming Warde is awake enough to approve it.
I don't necessarily agree that they wouldn't be looking in the portal even if they had landed Jacob Fowler or kept Trey Augustine in the fold. Is the fact that they're looking a comment on Brännman, a comment on West (he didn't play much even through Portillo's struggles), or just hedging your bets knowing that you've got a loaded team without a proven goalie and wanting to make sure you have options?
I'm not saying that Brännman is definitely Portillo or definitely Mann. I've never seen him play, so I don't know if he's not that good, if the team around him isn't that good, or what. I suspect it's that the team isn't very good, since his backup was 25-9-1 on Dubuque last year with a 3.13/.898 and is 8-11-2 with a 3.99/.865 this year. He probably didn't just get that much worse.
There are a whole 2 goalies in the USHL that have a 0.915 right now (so even that is a lofty standard...hell, last year there were like 4 guys in that league who had a 0.900), and I'd imagine there will be more than two good college goalies coming out of that league. Brännman also plays in a division with by far the two highest scoring teams.
I'm just saying I wouldn't draw any conclusions about Brännman's ability to step in and play because his save % in the ushl isn't as good as Portillo's was and that there hasn't been a lot of chatter about him. I could be wrong but I don't remember hearing any buzz about Mann until they went on a big run in the playoffs. (I don't even think he was on scholarship for most of his time at Michigan so I doubt they had him pegged to be as good as he was.)
You can say yeah they'd win more games if Brännman had a 0.915 but they'd also win more games if they scored an extra goal a game, or allowed 10 fewer shots a game. It's fairly meaningless to say that. He could go to Youngstown and put up Fowler numbers and Fowler's numbers could get worse if he was on Dubuque. It's impossible to say. We know he's a heckuva lot better than the other guy playing in front of that same defense night in and night out (and who was well thought of enough to commit to Denver), and that's about it.
It's hard to compare stats across teams and years. The team that Strauss was on won the Clark Cup, and Portillo's DBQ team was 33-13.
This DBQ team is more middle of the pack, and, sure, it could be that Mann/Portillo are better and better goalie = more wins, or it could just be that their team ISN'T all that great.
One thing I do like is that the other DBQ goalie is slated to go to DU and Brännman has a GAA that's a full goal better and has him by 36 points in save percentage. If you can make a direct comparison with another guy on the same team, it's nice when your guy is smoking the other guy.
I'd take Kaiden Mbereko or Simon Latkoczy in a heartbeat and they had an 0.898 and a 0.887 last year in the USHL. So it's not as simple as "0.901 isn't very good. He probably isn't as good as Portillo."
The best out there right now are probably Jared Moe--who had comparable numbers to JLF when they were both at Minnesota, and then had one good year on a bad Wisconsin team before having a not-very-good year on a really awful Wisconsin team--and the kid from Canisius who played really well for two periods vs Minnesota in the tournament until they took an awful major penalty and the bottom gave out.
Didn't listen because it's hard to listen to podcasts while I'm working so it's very possible this was addressed, but just from the text summary: There's definitely a parallel between Portillo vs Quinnipiac in 2023 and Sauer vs Notre Dame in 2008 but if we're talking legacy, Portillo also has to be given credit for his run in 2022 when he was utterly outstanding down the stretch and gave up 2 in regulation to the soon-to-be-champions in the semis + his strong performances in two Big Ten Tournament championship runs.
This year wasn't great. Last year really was. I'll remember him as an overall plus goalie for entire body of work that was a step down from Hunwick/Mann, but his peak was pretty close to them. He is the first Michigan goalie since Blackburn to start in two Frozen Fours and that's not nothing.
Hughes did have some rough moments/some poor choices at the offensive blueline, but he also saved a goal (and probably our season) with about 10 min left in the third. He got a stick on a puck that was headed in, much in the way that Lamppa kept Rut from scoring late in the first.
He also could have been a little dinged after yet another headshot that wasn't called.
I don't think it's a coincidence that the uptick in Portillo's play has also coincided with their increasing ability to stay out of the box. No majors and only 12 PKs in the past 5 games. I believe Estapa has only taken one penalty since he was benched and that was a garbage call. The message is getting through. Or we've had better refs, but one of the guys tonight waived off Ryznar's goal in the 03 semis so that's probably not it... :-D I estimated that our goals allowed per game would have been like 0.40ish lower if we got called for a more Minnesota amount of penalties. They've done great at staying out of the box lately and it's paying off.
I was at 03, 08 and 11, and I agree completely that 03 was the worst of them all. Even though that was only the semis, I think we all knew whoever won that game was winning the title. I also despise Minnesota, so it was doubly bad.
The waved off goal was suuuuuuuuuuuuch BS. It wasn't one of those where there was a scramble, the goalie maybe had it covered, maybe it sneaks out and someone buries it. It was sitting in the crease, no one around it, and Scott Hansen blows it dead because he was way out of position.
In 08, BC was playing really well and we would have had a really tough game if we beat ND. I wrote that game off after the first period, so it was kind of miraculous that we even sent it to OT. (Of course we did. Michigan can't just LOSE. We have to lose in excruciating fashion. Like in 2002. We're down 3-0 to the Gophers. Lose 3-0, tip your cap, move on. No. We score two late to make it 3-2 and give us HOPE....)
In 11, even though it was for the title, I felt like we were getting caved in a lot of that game and it was house money anyway since there was no reason we should have beaten NoDak.
During that 2011 game, in the intermission before OT, I kid you not...I'm looking up at the banners around the arena that have all the college hockey champions in alphabetical order. There was somehow a wind current up there and it was blowing two banners--and only two banners--back and forth, creating an opening between them. The opening was where Minnesota-Duluth would have slotted in alphabetically. I felt like that was a bad sign......
I was at that Duluth game for the title. I've never been able to bring myself to go back and watch to see the waived off goal and how bad of a call it was or wasn't.
I'm still so angry about Ryznar's goal that was waived off with like 9 minutes left in the 03 de facto title game. (I was also at that one)
I've been to 5 frozen fours, 0-5 in games I've attended, 5 one goal losses, 4 in OT. It's probably good I can't go this year if we make it.
Also it's probably a bit unreasonable to expect an interim coach to have put his stamp on the team when he took over the team in FREAKING AUGUST because of the inaction of the AD. (And I'd venture a guess that the defense/PK would be somewhat better at this point if their best defensive defenseman hadn't missed the past two months.)
We don't know what type of defensemen Brandon Naurato wants, if he has the players to play the system he wants to run, etc.
And as you pointed out, it's not like Michigan has been a beacon of defensive dominance most of the past two decades. They've had years here and there.
If you think he is lacking in the "head coaching" department in some fashion, the formula is right over in Denver. What'd they do for David Carle? Oh, he has two former D1 head coaches as his assistants? Hmm. (They pretty much did that for Juwan as well.)
I don't have any inside info on why Muckalt would have been passed over, but the optics of firing Pearson for all the reasons and then turning the team over to an assistant that had been with him for years on end may not have looked great. My total guess is that Muckalt will move on after the season.
One other point: I estimated that we'd be giving up 0.4 fewer goals per game if we were taking the number of penalties that Minnesota does, which would put us more middle of the pack in GAA. They've been MUCH better over the past few games. (Only 2 majors in the past 7 games. Estapa has only taken 1 penalty since he was benched, and that call was trash.)
That's fair enough. I think there's more to it than throw the puck out there and go, and talented guys will talent. There have been a TON of highly talented guys who have worked with Nar and presumably have seen benefit from it:
https://narhockey.com/alumni/
I also think in the past few years you've seen how guys have gotten better even in the two years they were here. (That's not to credit Nar for all of that, since he was only here for part of it, but meant as a way to show how elite NHL talent can still grow while playing college hockey.)
Really, though, the ideal situation for a team like Michigan is going to be to supplement the elite NHL talent that will be a bit of a rolling target with some solid players who will stay 3-4 years. Skill develop a guy like Hallum and you've got a helluva player. Add more to TJ Hughes's game (though he's gonna get some NHL offers so who knows how long he'll be around)?
There are some teams that get the 20 year olds and need to wring everything they can out of them in the 4 years they're in school. We're gonna get the 17 year old that's immensely talented but certainly not a finished product. Nar has worked a LOT with high end talent over the years, so I have no doubt he's qualified.
Also, he got the job in August. It's not clear what his ideal team makeup looks like and if "his guys" would be similar to what he has or not.
He's gonna recruit like crazy. I think he's passed the test this year with flying colors.
They were a bubble team at the holidays and now they're going to be the #4 or 5 overall seed. So whatever they're doing, they're winning games.
I wish they were better in their own zone too, and it's probably going to bite them at some point that they aren't, but even if they've given up 3.5 gpg in the second half and would be toward the bottom in that stat, they're also scoring 4.3, which would be far and away #1 over the whole season. (Minnesota currently leads at 4.08.)
Another thing that's absolutely correlated is their inability to stay out of the box, horrible whistle (it exists) or not.
They've given up 22 more goals while shorthanded than Minnesota has this year, on 74 more shorthanded situations. That's gonna leave a mark on your team defense.
Playing smarter would directly lead to the team defense looking a whole lot better, at least stat wise. They also miss Truscott a ton.
It might just be that they're the Edmonton Oilers, minus the ability to make a move at the trade deadline to sure up a personnel deficiency. In a tournament where they only have to win 4 games to win a natty, maybe it works....
I mean, it's not like it's new for a Michigan hockey team to put up a ton of goals and not really be able to keep the puck out of their own net. It also doesn't help that our best defensive defenseman hasn't played in about 2 months.
This team has faced about every kind of adversity you can face, is one of the two youngest teams in the country, has played one of the hardest schedules in the country, and they're still 65% going to be a 1 seed.
Nar is the guy and we're incredibly, incredibly lucky to have him. (Also, remember that he got the job in freaking August.) It's not the NHL where we can make a trade to cover up a deficiency that has been identified.
I can't find the article right now, but one of the NHL sites like CapFriendly had a breakdown of Portillo. He played an extra year of juniors, so he is able to become a free agent after this year. It was weird though because it was something along the lines of:
June 1 2023 - Aug 30 2023: Free Agent
Sept 1 2023 - July 31: Sabres have his rights again
Aug 1 2024 forward: UFA
I wonder if the "after he leaves school" comes into play there. Like he could leave school after our season and become a free agent 30 days later, but then if he returns to school he's back as a Sabres prospect.
Nar had a comment during the at PSU series Portillo missed to the effect of "He won't be here next year [so it's good to get to play West]" so I assume the plan for some time has been that he won't return.
That said it'll be interesting to see if 6'6 and talented outweighs "He can no longer catch the puck, loses his stick 3-4 times a game, and frequently looks in the wrong direction" for NHL teams. I suspect he'll still have several contract offers because he was excellent last year and has been at times this year. Some weiiiird stuff in his game right now though.
When I still had my blog, I did a breakdown of power play opportunities for/against and game results per ref. We got the best whistle BY FAR from Pi, if I remember right. Which to me always made sense since he was supposedly the best in the conference and, in my world, the team that has the puck more (which was usually us) should probably get more power plays...
To add more context to Brian's Notre Dame story: That kicked in goal from ND was one of the funniest things in history. It was during a stretch where officials were ONLY allowed to use the overhead cam for goal reviews. It was said to be because different arenas had different cameras available, so to be fair they could only use the overhead shot. That seems weird to me, since it feels like using all cameras would be fair to both teams who were playing in that game, but such is life in the NCAA.
Dude absolute SOCCER KICKS the puck in. But it was from out by the hash marks, so he wasn't in the overhead shot. That meant that everyone on TV saw this dude Messi the puck in, anyone looking at the jumbotron saw it. But the refs weren't allowed to reverse the call. Goal.
That was a Brian Aaron special. Not sure how all four officials missed the soccer kick in the first place, since theoretically at least one of them should be looking at the puck. Travis Turnbull sure saw it.
Brian Aaron also wiped out our tying goal in that game by erroneously ruling that the net was off the moorings when Kampfer scored with like 30 seconds left.
I legitimately have a OneNote on my phone now called "Why Each Ref Sucks" and I keep track of things so I can add some context when, say, Brett Sheva calls embellishment from 100 feet away when Dylan Duke gets drilled from behind and hits his head on the glass. I can remind people that this is the numbskull who also allowed the "through the side of the net" goal in the Kohl Center. I have hated Brian Aaron for 20+ years. I've yelled things at McInchak that my mom would not be proud of. The officiating has never been as bad as it is today.
It's utter insanity that Estapa got tossed because he glanced off a dude's cage, and yet Logan Cooley put Eric Ciccolini out for 6 weeks on a disgusting hit and was left in the game to make two game-changing plays. We have have 3 guys out injured, seemingly all from hits from behind by Minnesota, who is one of the least penalized teams in the country. For all these "head shots" have any of the players even come out of the game for a concussion check? Did any of them miss a shift?
I'm not opposed to protecting the players, but then maybe don't let Barry Pochmara stare right at Mackie getting drilled from behind, injured, and then not call anything even after a review. (But he's the same guy who thought that it wasn't contact to the head when GVW had his HELMET DENTED by a cross check that he was looking right at. See, the OneNote is awesome.)
Other stuff:
-The earlier PSU series was definitely further impacted by the virus.
-The goalie coach thing: I'm not sure I've gotten the whole story, but it's cool that we lost our volunteer coach but would be able to hire him back in July if we want since they've since approved a 3rd paid coach. But it isn't in effect yet.
-Adding to the adversity for this season: They lost their longtime equipment guy, Ian Hume, to cancer. They have the youngest team in the country. They had to replace Power, Johnson, Brisson, Bordeleau, Beecher, Blankenburg, Beniers, also with a pretty darn good checking line worth of guys.
We're still recruiting like crazy at this point, so I'm not sure the interim tag is really going to hurt between now and the end of the season when it presumably will be removed, but it's pretty comical that it even got to this point. I think the late coaching transition did probably hurt us with some transfer targets.
I'd keep an eye on Casey Dornbach from Harvard. He's deciding between pros and a grad year, and he's said he'd like to play in the Big Ten/NCHC if he does stay in college. Michigan was definitely in on him when he was being recruited the first go-round and Mel Pearson has RTed Drew Van Drese a couple of times when Drew has posted about how Dornbach would be a great fit.
Hallum will be 20 by the time the season starts, and TJ Hughes is already 20 and will be 21 early in the season. Tyler Haskins will be 19. Brendan Miles is already 20, as is Druskinis.
Beecher is absolutely going to be a better pro than he was a college player, and it's going to annoy me to no end. But I absolutely wish him well and he's off to a fabulous start to his AHL career. 2-1--3 in his first game, including the OT winner.
That size and speed...he's gonna have a role somewhere.
One small correct: the Air Force game in 09 was 2-0 (so not OT). We did lose to Cornell by the score of (what else?) 3-2 in OT in 2012 as a 1 seed, to end Tiny Jesus's Michigan career. Sweet waived off goal that would have made it 2-0 in the first couple of minutes.
Loved the section that started "despite the historic talent". I've seen way, way too many spicy takes of "If not with this team, when?" at the same time we're acknowledging that less talented teams win titles sometimes.
Beyond that, we could very well prove to have more first round picks on next year's team than this year's. Assuming Mackie and Hughes come back, you're adding potentially all of Casey, Hunter B, McGroarty, Adam Fantilli, Nazar, and Gavin Brindley, and all of them have been mentioned as potential first rounders. 3 would still be in their draft year, and I'm not convinced all of them make it to campus, but we could have MORE first rounders next year, even if we won't have the 1-2-4-5 level of talent.
I'm already nervous and I have 2 more days of work and a flight to get through, then another most-of-a-day before we play. It's gonna be a long week.
If anyone is a betting person and like to emotional hedge like I do, I think there's a ton of value on Minnesota State. Very much estimating, but I think KRACH would have the title odds something like:
Michigan: 34%
Mankato: 33%
Denver: 17%
Minnesota: 16%
or thereabouts. The last number I saw had Michigan +150 to win the title and Mankato something like +275. Based on a 33% chance of winning, they should be like +203.
Hughes was absolutely dreadful in mid Nov-early December. He's played like a Hobey winner ever since, to the point where I'm worried about not getting him back next year, even though he's always said the plan is two years.
I guess the good news is 1) He's still really young, only made last year's draft by like 5 days and 2) If any family is more than aware of the benefits of staying 2 years in college vs getting thrown right into the Nhl early, it's the Hughes family.
I actually thought Mackie was arguably our best forward in the last month before the Christmas break as well. The sky is the limit for him, especially if he can dial his shot in a little more/get it on net more often. I'm a huge fan.
That Hughes even strength stat is gonzo.
It made me sad when you said he could have up to six games to play. I'm not ready for this team to only have 2-6 more games....even with six potential first rounders coming in next year (and Hallum had a massive weekend vs the ntdp) we're never going to see a collection of talent like this again.
Minnesota was picked to win the Big Ten and they won the Big Ten. It's unfortunate that Michigan couldn't pull it off, but Minnesota is a darn good team and, as mentioned, they got their Hunwick when JLF (who hadn't played well this year) left.
I know Minnesota played down guys too, but it was a weird season overall with so many of our key players in and out of the lineup. I'm not getting too worked up about not winning the conference. A banner would have been nice, but, ah well. I don't hate that they're playing this week. Beat up on Sparty, get the Olympians back integrated and get humming again.
The tournament is going to be terrifying. But at least no more Sitarski, Aaron, Pochmara, Czech, Desrosiers........even if the grass probably isn't actually greener. I can't handle the officiating in this conference anymore. It's genuinely starting to impact my love of the sport because they're all so bad and so inconsistent.
They're overall still playing great hockey and they ran into their kryptonite team.
I'm hoping losing those guys for the Olympics benefits us in the long run. If you were to make a list of the things that could elevate Michigan from really darn good to great, they'd probably include:
-Beecher snapping out of his slump
-Lambert burying some of his chances
-Bordeleau playing more like last year when he was the best skater on our team (he hasn't been bad this year at all, but definitely less consistently noticeable)
-The freshmen taking "the leap" toward the end of the year.
What are we getting? Beecher scored against US, used his speed to set up Grano's goal Saturday, and his line with Mackie has been excellent.
Lambert scored 2 on Saturday, had an assist on Friday, scored against USA, and scored in the Saturday UW game.
Bordeleau has points in 5 straight and 9 of 10.
Hughes has shaken off a rough December and turned into an elite college hockey player. Mackie has been noticeably excellent for a couple of months now. Edwards is becoming more and more noticeably great. Duke has points in 4 of 6 and is being a giant pain. And Estapa just needs to dial it in a smidge and he's going to be an excellent, hard to play against, 4 year guy.
I really couldn't be much happier about how this is shaping up.
KRACH would have Michigan 85.7% to beat AIC and 80.7% to beat Clarkson. It maybe isn't as big of a gap as it is some years, but I would still gladly take that extra 5% in single elimination.
Sad for him, good for us: Truscott was cut from the World Junior team so we should be able to have a functional defense corps. Blankenburg, Truscott, Edwards is not a bad top 3 at all, Summers and Pehrson have been rough this year but they've got a ton of experience. Then Keranen or Gingell as your #6, depending on if they need Keranen up front or not. I suspect they'll both dress since I don't think we have 19 bodies.
Supposedly Moyle has a post on IG that indicates he might be out too, but he has a protected account so I haven't seen for myself.
I *do* complain about officials often. It's as much a part of my brand as Jimmy Vesey jokes. But they've been especially awful this year. Short of dragging Keith Sergott back out, I can't imagine them doing a worse job.
The majors are like targeting roulette combined with the replay official from Mich/MSU football. I don't get how incidental contact with a dude that is falling is a major, but blasting Brendan Brisson from behind (to the point he did a cartwheel) is 2 and no review. But then the hit from behind at the end of the ND game was 5. But the one in the Minnesota game (on us, forget who it was) wasn't. Hit to the head is a major, unless it results in the Michigan player's helmet breaking.
I can't even differentiate the Big Ten refs anymore. Aaron and Pochmara I've got. Sitarski has made the list. The rest is just an indistinguishable mound of suck, as opposed to the other three who are recognizable mounds of suck. There's not even anyone that I'm slightly relieved to see anymore. I actually thought Pochmara and Sheva called a decent series vs Minnesota (even though it was weird that the dominant team ended up in a huge penalty disadvantage each night) but Sheva was one of the guys who allowed the "puck through the side of the net" goal at the Kohl Center a few years back, which should have gotten him fired immediately.
Beecher isn't going to like the film session for the third and fourth goals. He had a bad turnover for #3 and then broke his stick on the ensuing faceoff, dogged it to get another, and then it led to a guy streaking right past him for another goal.
Hughes has stunk for four straight games. Hopefully just looking ahead to WJC a bit and he'll refocus in the new year. He's had some great stretches but his turnovers are getting really problematic.
Selfishly I would not mind if Truscott (if he's even healthy) and Mackie didn't make the US team. The PWR cares not who is missing and our D corps is gonna be ugly if all 7 guys make their teams and Holtz is still out. Pehrson turned it over, which led to the PP psu scored goal 1 on, then turned it over for goal 6. You touched on Summers, he also blasted guys into both Portillo and West.
But they're basically 13-4-3 in the eyes of the PWR and Mel's teams have a history of being much better in the second half.
Dickerson is fabulous and he's fabulous regardless of what sport he calls. I feel like there's an every-so-often thing where he gets pulled in on hockey and it feels like I won the lottery for that day.
Agreed they won't get him, but that would be the absolute best person they could land.
I've saved every ticket stub from probably every game I've ever been to in any sport, so losing paper tickets doesn't thrill me either. I've taken to screenshotting my mobile ticket so I can eventually print them out. It won't be the same as the sheet of tickets where you'd tear them off one by one, but it'll at least be pretty much the same thing as the Print At Home tickets. It's still sad.
Could be a chicken or the egg thing too. Yes the level of competition isn't what it will be, but it also means that his supporting cast wasn't nearly as good as it will be at Michigan. Hard to say without seeing him play, but I'd much rather have a guy who was all conference as a freshman at a D1 school than someone who barely played and didn't put up good numbers when he did or someone we haven't seen yet, but that was very clearly brought in as a third goalie.
I have to think if nothing else, he's a solid backup and that we wouldn't set the season on fire if Portillo went down. I'm much more comfortable with our backup goalie position than I was.
Just to add some evidence on the others: Bordeleau was at Sharks camp last week and was asked if he was going to turn pro *after* this upcoming season and he more or less said he hasn't given it any thought and is taking it year by year.
Beecher did confirm his return in an interview a little while back as well.
Hockey also added RMU transfer goalie Noah West. He started for them as a freshman and put up pretty good numbers (9-8 with a 2.66/.915). Nice insurance policy against a Portillo injury and, since he still will have freshman eligibility, against Portillo having a huge year and going pro a year before Trey Augustine comes in.
Not to be totally pedantic because it's certainly close....Wisconsin's is just a tick smaller than Olympic. Olympic is 200x100 and I think the Kohl Center is like 200x97 (or thereabouts...That's what Wikipedia shows, but I feel like my buddy who works there said it was slightly different from that even. Can't find the text though)
I think they were talking about renovating the Kohl Center and part of that was going to be making the sheet full Olympic (or going down to standard....don't remember which), but I think that got Covid put on hold.
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Total guess, but strongly suspect he had a concussion. He looked like he hit his head on the boards on the big hit by their giant 25 year old whose name I'm blanking on.
If that's the case, then fortunately or unfortunately there's not a concrete time frame. Fingers crossed.
Great stuff as always. The one thing I disagree with is that Nar was on easy mode last year. Yeah having Adam Fantilli and Luke Hughes makes it easier. But what he had to deal with:
Taking over in August and having to implement his system, get the analytics team spun up, his system implemented, an assistant hired, etc.
"The Report" and all that awkwardness
Ian Hume passing away
Steven Holtz almost passing away and the virus that severely impacted 2-3 weekends
Losing the goalie coach mid-season and having to take that on.
Having to coach and recruit with an interim tag on, meaning he didn't have any job security if things went badly.
There are a couple other things as well, but to me it's a dang miracle that team played as well as they did with everything going on and I think it says a ton about Nar and his ability to coach a team, be a leader, and keep them moving forward in the face of adversity.
I don't think he gets near enough credit for the job he did last year.
The only thing I could think of was that they had an angle that showed the initial shot in the net when Barzo moved his legs back. But then they gave the goal to the guy who crashed the net and poked it in after the whistle, so, no.
Now the only explanation I can come up with is that they reviewed it solely for "was the puck in the net" and didn't consider "Hey I blew the whistle. Did I blow the whistle before the puck went in?" and Nar would have needed to challenge that. Which would be stupid, but knowing this conference I wouldn't put it past em.
It's also sweet that that was an automatic review, but ours would have required a challenge a minute into the game, which would have meant that we couldn't challenge any of the other Big Ten BS the rest of the game without risking a penalty.
Augustine gets way too much love for his actual performance this season. He has an insanely high ceiling, he's going to be a stud for them next year, and he definitely won some games for them this year, but he has like a 3.53 goals against vs tournament teams this year. I think Barzo is like 3.37.
He got most outstanding player in the BTT for beating a mid OSU team and getting kind of shelled by us? It's a little weird.
They portaled a bunch of guys Nightingale had a previous relationship with, added one of the two best goalies in the class, and were able to take a future top 3 pick on defense that we weren't going to be able to get into school (and, supposedly, gave him a nice NIL deal).
This was always going to be a bit of a down year since this class was the one particularly hurt by the coaching change. Having the injuries we've had also didn't help. I legit think we'd have 2-3 more wins with a healthy Edwards all season. Hallum was a sneaky big loss, they missed McGroarty a bunch, we probably beat Minny Sat with Barzo, Tyler Duke had a couple ill-timed injuries.
Barzo has largely been fine, but man it hurt to have Augustine flip (he's had a few FABULOUS games and is obv gonna be tough for the foreseeable future, but his numbers for the year aren't really that great....) and then have Fowler change his mind at the last second to go to BC. (I'm not sure if he was a silent commit or not, but Michigan was definitely expecting him to commit when he announced.)
None of the goals in the Qpac game had anything to do with him coming out to play the puck/"wandering".
1) He made a save, was slow to react to it going over the net, and got banked as he was sliding back to his crease.
2) Breakaway
3) Very slow to react to the puck going behind the net off a save he made. Got banked again and he was kind of just chilling.
4) Whiffed on a shot from the boards.
5) ENG
It blows my mind the stuff people make up and then blame the coach for.
I'm sure it hurt him to not have a goalie coach for a large chunk of the season. But he wasn't losing his stick, facing the wrong way, etc. only after we didn't have one anymore. He was weird last year and I'm glad he's gotten through it and is doing well. We need a goalie in the league.
He might regret Deschamps as the replacement, but I can be almost certain he doesn't regret not keeping Muckalt.
People need to stop projecting the failures of the basketball program onto hockey. This was always going to be a bit of a tougher year since this was the recruiting class that was really hurt by the coaching transition (and Warde taking his ole sweet time dealing with the report). Moldenhauer and Schifsky have been good, but certainly not enough to replace what we lost.
It's a strike against the staff if they miss the tournament this year, but they'd have easily made it without the rash of injuries in the first half. (Our PK has to be 15 points higher since Edwards has come back.) Unfortunately that killed their margin for error and they just haven't been quite good enough night in and night out against good teams.
Just don't make it a trend. Mel made the Frozen Four in his first year and then missed the tournament in his second year too.
Providence beat Denver tonight and UMass won at Mankato. I know the latter is going to be down this year from where they have been, but those are still two nice wins.
Neither of those losses are going to end up looking bad on us.
McMahon said that a WHL team is courting Muckalt as their Head Coach, so we'll see on that one.
Also, did we ever talk about Levshunov from GB? He is reportedly considering Mich, MSU, and Vermont and would be coming in this season. He is a potential top 3 pick next year and had numbers comparable to Power's in the USHL. He'd be a MASSIVE add, especially now.
I'll believe that we can get a guy who doesn't speak a ton of English into school when I see it. The other two schools likely don't have that issue. But man he'd be a huge add.
Truscott, Casey, Edwards, Duke, Warren, Levshunov as your top 6 is a national championship winning D corps.
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Yeah that was something!
After he got benched for a game, he went the last 13 games with only one minor penalty (and that one was bullllllllll). Pretty impressive turnaround and, I'd say, message received. Fingers crossed he carries that through to the new season.
Wellllllll Brännman doesn't have a block M on the Dubuque line chart tonight so I guess he isn't coming.
I guess that explains how we'd fit Peck with potentially Slavick from the NTDP who thought to favor Michigan. But it again raises some question marks for next year and then the year after you're looking at Peck/West.
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You more or less did.
I guess I more or less agree he's a total question mark, but just because he's a freshman as opposed to anything to do with his stats. Most freshmen goalies are going to be. In the top 30 in save % this year in the ncaa there were three freshmen. The best one didn't have good raw numbers in the ushl, one played in the NAHL, and the third also didn't have good numbers in the USHL.
I just wouldn't draw any conclusions period without having seen Brännman or without knowing more about the team he's playing on. If he was on Fargo and had a 0.915 I wouldn't necessarily feel better or worse about him than I do about him having a 0.901 on Dubuque.
The fact that he's 36 pts higher in save percentage than the guy he shares the net with (who was established on the team and is committed to Denver), that he's more or less taken over the net, the fact that he selected to be the backup at World Juniors for Sweden are definitely some points in his favor.
Even the top guys in ushl save percentage have been a mixed bag moving forward. If you look at the top 5 each year you have the Dobeses of the world, but you also have guys who have barely played for ND, AIC, Cornell, etc.
If you want to look at guys above a 0.915 going back 4 or 5 years you have:
A kid who split time for Uconn this year and was fine.
Schmid who did it twice and went to the AHL.
Jaxson Stauber who was a 3rd year USHL guy after he left Kato and went back to the ushl. He ended up being solid for Providence.
A dude who stunk for Bentley
Portillo
Isaiah Saville who was thoroughly average for Omaha (3 years of 0.907)
Brandon Bussi who was fine for WMU.
That's going back to 18-19. 7 guys/8 seasons. And none of them that I'd really consider to be stars. Maybe Schmid since he went right to the pros and has gotten 20 NHL games but not guys coming into college and dominating.
(Then the year Strauss had a 0.932 there were 8 guys above 0.915 that year alone. Weird. And even Strauss split time as a freshman and had a sub 0.900 save percentage.)
It's a crapshoot. Goalies are crapshoots. Taking Barczewski gives you better odds that someone is good. It gives you better odds your backup is good or that you have a 1a/1b without committing long term.
I'm completely with you that he's a big question mark. I would have been driving the bus on Michigan needing to portal a goalie and I'm very happy we got one. I just disagree with the reasoning behind saying he's a question mark. Everything I've seen is that he's been very good overall for Dubuque and is a big reason they're in a playoff position. I'm actually really excited to see him.
A third paid assistant was approved by the ncaa, so I'd imagine it'll be a lot easier to make that happen. Assuming Warde is awake enough to approve it.
I don't necessarily agree that they wouldn't be looking in the portal even if they had landed Jacob Fowler or kept Trey Augustine in the fold. Is the fact that they're looking a comment on Brännman, a comment on West (he didn't play much even through Portillo's struggles), or just hedging your bets knowing that you've got a loaded team without a proven goalie and wanting to make sure you have options?
I'm not saying that Brännman is definitely Portillo or definitely Mann. I've never seen him play, so I don't know if he's not that good, if the team around him isn't that good, or what. I suspect it's that the team isn't very good, since his backup was 25-9-1 on Dubuque last year with a 3.13/.898 and is 8-11-2 with a 3.99/.865 this year. He probably didn't just get that much worse.
There are a whole 2 goalies in the USHL that have a 0.915 right now (so even that is a lofty standard...hell, last year there were like 4 guys in that league who had a 0.900), and I'd imagine there will be more than two good college goalies coming out of that league. Brännman also plays in a division with by far the two highest scoring teams.
I'm just saying I wouldn't draw any conclusions about Brännman's ability to step in and play because his save % in the ushl isn't as good as Portillo's was and that there hasn't been a lot of chatter about him. I could be wrong but I don't remember hearing any buzz about Mann until they went on a big run in the playoffs. (I don't even think he was on scholarship for most of his time at Michigan so I doubt they had him pegged to be as good as he was.)
You can say yeah they'd win more games if Brännman had a 0.915 but they'd also win more games if they scored an extra goal a game, or allowed 10 fewer shots a game. It's fairly meaningless to say that. He could go to Youngstown and put up Fowler numbers and Fowler's numbers could get worse if he was on Dubuque. It's impossible to say. We know he's a heckuva lot better than the other guy playing in front of that same defense night in and night out (and who was well thought of enough to commit to Denver), and that's about it.
It's hard to compare stats across teams and years. The team that Strauss was on won the Clark Cup, and Portillo's DBQ team was 33-13.
This DBQ team is more middle of the pack, and, sure, it could be that Mann/Portillo are better and better goalie = more wins, or it could just be that their team ISN'T all that great.
One thing I do like is that the other DBQ goalie is slated to go to DU and Brännman has a GAA that's a full goal better and has him by 36 points in save percentage. If you can make a direct comparison with another guy on the same team, it's nice when your guy is smoking the other guy.
I'd take Kaiden Mbereko or Simon Latkoczy in a heartbeat and they had an 0.898 and a 0.887 last year in the USHL. So it's not as simple as "0.901 isn't very good. He probably isn't as good as Portillo."
Caron, the guy from Brown, is going to BU.
The best out there right now are probably Jared Moe--who had comparable numbers to JLF when they were both at Minnesota, and then had one good year on a bad Wisconsin team before having a not-very-good year on a really awful Wisconsin team--and the kid from Canisius who played really well for two periods vs Minnesota in the tournament until they took an awful major penalty and the bottom gave out.
Didn't listen because it's hard to listen to podcasts while I'm working so it's very possible this was addressed, but just from the text summary: There's definitely a parallel between Portillo vs Quinnipiac in 2023 and Sauer vs Notre Dame in 2008 but if we're talking legacy, Portillo also has to be given credit for his run in 2022 when he was utterly outstanding down the stretch and gave up 2 in regulation to the soon-to-be-champions in the semis + his strong performances in two Big Ten Tournament championship runs.
This year wasn't great. Last year really was. I'll remember him as an overall plus goalie for entire body of work that was a step down from Hunwick/Mann, but his peak was pretty close to them. He is the first Michigan goalie since Blackburn to start in two Frozen Fours and that's not nothing.
Hughes did have some rough moments/some poor choices at the offensive blueline, but he also saved a goal (and probably our season) with about 10 min left in the third. He got a stick on a puck that was headed in, much in the way that Lamppa kept Rut from scoring late in the first.
He also could have been a little dinged after yet another headshot that wasn't called.
I don't think it's a coincidence that the uptick in Portillo's play has also coincided with their increasing ability to stay out of the box. No majors and only 12 PKs in the past 5 games. I believe Estapa has only taken one penalty since he was benched and that was a garbage call. The message is getting through. Or we've had better refs, but one of the guys tonight waived off Ryznar's goal in the 03 semis so that's probably not it... :-D I estimated that our goals allowed per game would have been like 0.40ish lower if we got called for a more Minnesota amount of penalties. They've done great at staying out of the box lately and it's paying off.
I was at 03, 08 and 11, and I agree completely that 03 was the worst of them all. Even though that was only the semis, I think we all knew whoever won that game was winning the title. I also despise Minnesota, so it was doubly bad.
The waved off goal was suuuuuuuuuuuuch BS. It wasn't one of those where there was a scramble, the goalie maybe had it covered, maybe it sneaks out and someone buries it. It was sitting in the crease, no one around it, and Scott Hansen blows it dead because he was way out of position.
In 08, BC was playing really well and we would have had a really tough game if we beat ND. I wrote that game off after the first period, so it was kind of miraculous that we even sent it to OT. (Of course we did. Michigan can't just LOSE. We have to lose in excruciating fashion. Like in 2002. We're down 3-0 to the Gophers. Lose 3-0, tip your cap, move on. No. We score two late to make it 3-2 and give us HOPE....)
In 11, even though it was for the title, I felt like we were getting caved in a lot of that game and it was house money anyway since there was no reason we should have beaten NoDak.
During that 2011 game, in the intermission before OT, I kid you not...I'm looking up at the banners around the arena that have all the college hockey champions in alphabetical order. There was somehow a wind current up there and it was blowing two banners--and only two banners--back and forth, creating an opening between them. The opening was where Minnesota-Duluth would have slotted in alphabetically. I felt like that was a bad sign......
I was at that Duluth game for the title. I've never been able to bring myself to go back and watch to see the waived off goal and how bad of a call it was or wasn't.
I'm still so angry about Ryznar's goal that was waived off with like 9 minutes left in the 03 de facto title game. (I was also at that one)
I've been to 5 frozen fours, 0-5 in games I've attended, 5 one goal losses, 4 in OT. It's probably good I can't go this year if we make it.
Also it's probably a bit unreasonable to expect an interim coach to have put his stamp on the team when he took over the team in FREAKING AUGUST because of the inaction of the AD. (And I'd venture a guess that the defense/PK would be somewhat better at this point if their best defensive defenseman hadn't missed the past two months.)
We don't know what type of defensemen Brandon Naurato wants, if he has the players to play the system he wants to run, etc.
And as you pointed out, it's not like Michigan has been a beacon of defensive dominance most of the past two decades. They've had years here and there.
If you think he is lacking in the "head coaching" department in some fashion, the formula is right over in Denver. What'd they do for David Carle? Oh, he has two former D1 head coaches as his assistants? Hmm. (They pretty much did that for Juwan as well.)
I don't have any inside info on why Muckalt would have been passed over, but the optics of firing Pearson for all the reasons and then turning the team over to an assistant that had been with him for years on end may not have looked great. My total guess is that Muckalt will move on after the season.
One other point: I estimated that we'd be giving up 0.4 fewer goals per game if we were taking the number of penalties that Minnesota does, which would put us more middle of the pack in GAA. They've been MUCH better over the past few games. (Only 2 majors in the past 7 games. Estapa has only taken 1 penalty since he was benched, and that call was trash.)
Here's the segment with Sam/JUB. I haven't listened.
https://omny.fm/shows/michigan-insider/011-john-u-bacon-seg2-031723
I don't think I'd worry too much about this. It's politics and it's Michigan so it can't ever be simple.
That's fair enough. I think there's more to it than throw the puck out there and go, and talented guys will talent. There have been a TON of highly talented guys who have worked with Nar and presumably have seen benefit from it:
https://narhockey.com/alumni/
I also think in the past few years you've seen how guys have gotten better even in the two years they were here. (That's not to credit Nar for all of that, since he was only here for part of it, but meant as a way to show how elite NHL talent can still grow while playing college hockey.)
Really, though, the ideal situation for a team like Michigan is going to be to supplement the elite NHL talent that will be a bit of a rolling target with some solid players who will stay 3-4 years. Skill develop a guy like Hallum and you've got a helluva player. Add more to TJ Hughes's game (though he's gonna get some NHL offers so who knows how long he'll be around)?
There are some teams that get the 20 year olds and need to wring everything they can out of them in the 4 years they're in school. We're gonna get the 17 year old that's immensely talented but certainly not a finished product. Nar has worked a LOT with high end talent over the years, so I have no doubt he's qualified.
Also, he got the job in August. It's not clear what his ideal team makeup looks like and if "his guys" would be similar to what he has or not.
He's gonna recruit like crazy. I think he's passed the test this year with flying colors.
They were a bubble team at the holidays and now they're going to be the #4 or 5 overall seed. So whatever they're doing, they're winning games.
I wish they were better in their own zone too, and it's probably going to bite them at some point that they aren't, but even if they've given up 3.5 gpg in the second half and would be toward the bottom in that stat, they're also scoring 4.3, which would be far and away #1 over the whole season. (Minnesota currently leads at 4.08.)
Another thing that's absolutely correlated is their inability to stay out of the box, horrible whistle (it exists) or not.
They've given up 22 more goals while shorthanded than Minnesota has this year, on 74 more shorthanded situations. That's gonna leave a mark on your team defense.
Playing smarter would directly lead to the team defense looking a whole lot better, at least stat wise. They also miss Truscott a ton.
It might just be that they're the Edmonton Oilers, minus the ability to make a move at the trade deadline to sure up a personnel deficiency. In a tournament where they only have to win 4 games to win a natty, maybe it works....
Yes, I'm sure Warde is watching these games and thinking "If they were better in the defensive zone I'd pull the tag off of Nar."
Why would you not want a player development guy running an NCAA team when you're trying to develop a bunch of talented kids?
It really doesn't help that their best defensive defenseman has been out for the past 12 games.
I mean, it's not like it's new for a Michigan hockey team to put up a ton of goals and not really be able to keep the puck out of their own net. It also doesn't help that our best defensive defenseman hasn't played in about 2 months.
This team has faced about every kind of adversity you can face, is one of the two youngest teams in the country, has played one of the hardest schedules in the country, and they're still 65% going to be a 1 seed.
Nar is the guy and we're incredibly, incredibly lucky to have him. (Also, remember that he got the job in freaking August.) It's not the NHL where we can make a trade to cover up a deficiency that has been identified.
I can't find the article right now, but one of the NHL sites like CapFriendly had a breakdown of Portillo. He played an extra year of juniors, so he is able to become a free agent after this year. It was weird though because it was something along the lines of:
June 1 2023 - Aug 30 2023: Free Agent
Sept 1 2023 - July 31: Sabres have his rights again
Aug 1 2024 forward: UFA
I wonder if the "after he leaves school" comes into play there. Like he could leave school after our season and become a free agent 30 days later, but then if he returns to school he's back as a Sabres prospect.
Nar had a comment during the at PSU series Portillo missed to the effect of "He won't be here next year [so it's good to get to play West]" so I assume the plan for some time has been that he won't return.
That said it'll be interesting to see if 6'6 and talented outweighs "He can no longer catch the puck, loses his stick 3-4 times a game, and frequently looks in the wrong direction" for NHL teams. I suspect he'll still have several contract offers because he was excellent last year and has been at times this year. Some weiiiird stuff in his game right now though.
That was Tony Molina wasn't it?
When I still had my blog, I did a breakdown of power play opportunities for/against and game results per ref. We got the best whistle BY FAR from Pi, if I remember right. Which to me always made sense since he was supposedly the best in the conference and, in my world, the team that has the puck more (which was usually us) should probably get more power plays...
To add more context to Brian's Notre Dame story: That kicked in goal from ND was one of the funniest things in history. It was during a stretch where officials were ONLY allowed to use the overhead cam for goal reviews. It was said to be because different arenas had different cameras available, so to be fair they could only use the overhead shot. That seems weird to me, since it feels like using all cameras would be fair to both teams who were playing in that game, but such is life in the NCAA.
Dude absolute SOCCER KICKS the puck in. But it was from out by the hash marks, so he wasn't in the overhead shot. That meant that everyone on TV saw this dude Messi the puck in, anyone looking at the jumbotron saw it. But the refs weren't allowed to reverse the call. Goal.
That was a Brian Aaron special. Not sure how all four officials missed the soccer kick in the first place, since theoretically at least one of them should be looking at the puck. Travis Turnbull sure saw it.
Brian Aaron also wiped out our tying goal in that game by erroneously ruling that the net was off the moorings when Kampfer scored with like 30 seconds left.
I legitimately have a OneNote on my phone now called "Why Each Ref Sucks" and I keep track of things so I can add some context when, say, Brett Sheva calls embellishment from 100 feet away when Dylan Duke gets drilled from behind and hits his head on the glass. I can remind people that this is the numbskull who also allowed the "through the side of the net" goal in the Kohl Center. I have hated Brian Aaron for 20+ years. I've yelled things at McInchak that my mom would not be proud of. The officiating has never been as bad as it is today.
It's utter insanity that Estapa got tossed because he glanced off a dude's cage, and yet Logan Cooley put Eric Ciccolini out for 6 weeks on a disgusting hit and was left in the game to make two game-changing plays. We have have 3 guys out injured, seemingly all from hits from behind by Minnesota, who is one of the least penalized teams in the country. For all these "head shots" have any of the players even come out of the game for a concussion check? Did any of them miss a shift?
I'm not opposed to protecting the players, but then maybe don't let Barry Pochmara stare right at Mackie getting drilled from behind, injured, and then not call anything even after a review. (But he's the same guy who thought that it wasn't contact to the head when GVW had his HELMET DENTED by a cross check that he was looking right at. See, the OneNote is awesome.)
Other stuff:
-The earlier PSU series was definitely further impacted by the virus.
-The goalie coach thing: I'm not sure I've gotten the whole story, but it's cool that we lost our volunteer coach but would be able to hire him back in July if we want since they've since approved a 3rd paid coach. But it isn't in effect yet.
-Adding to the adversity for this season: They lost their longtime equipment guy, Ian Hume, to cancer. They have the youngest team in the country. They had to replace Power, Johnson, Brisson, Bordeleau, Beecher, Blankenburg, Beniers, also with a pretty darn good checking line worth of guys.
We're still recruiting like crazy at this point, so I'm not sure the interim tag is really going to hurt between now and the end of the season when it presumably will be removed, but it's pretty comical that it even got to this point. I think the late coaching transition did probably hurt us with some transfer targets.
I'd keep an eye on Casey Dornbach from Harvard. He's deciding between pros and a grad year, and he's said he'd like to play in the Big Ten/NCHC if he does stay in college. Michigan was definitely in on him when he was being recruited the first go-round and Mel Pearson has RTed Drew Van Drese a couple of times when Drew has posted about how Dornbach would be a great fit.
Hallum will be 20 by the time the season starts, and TJ Hughes is already 20 and will be 21 early in the season. Tyler Haskins will be 19. Brendan Miles is already 20, as is Druskinis.
Beecher is absolutely going to be a better pro than he was a college player, and it's going to annoy me to no end. But I absolutely wish him well and he's off to a fabulous start to his AHL career. 2-1--3 in his first game, including the OT winner.
That size and speed...he's gonna have a role somewhere.
One small correct: the Air Force game in 09 was 2-0 (so not OT). We did lose to Cornell by the score of (what else?) 3-2 in OT in 2012 as a 1 seed, to end Tiny Jesus's Michigan career. Sweet waived off goal that would have made it 2-0 in the first couple of minutes.
Loved the section that started "despite the historic talent". I've seen way, way too many spicy takes of "If not with this team, when?" at the same time we're acknowledging that less talented teams win titles sometimes.
Beyond that, we could very well prove to have more first round picks on next year's team than this year's. Assuming Mackie and Hughes come back, you're adding potentially all of Casey, Hunter B, McGroarty, Adam Fantilli, Nazar, and Gavin Brindley, and all of them have been mentioned as potential first rounders. 3 would still be in their draft year, and I'm not convinced all of them make it to campus, but we could have MORE first rounders next year, even if we won't have the 1-2-4-5 level of talent.
I'm already nervous and I have 2 more days of work and a flight to get through, then another most-of-a-day before we play. It's gonna be a long week.
If anyone is a betting person and like to emotional hedge like I do, I think there's a ton of value on Minnesota State. Very much estimating, but I think KRACH would have the title odds something like:
Michigan: 34%
Mankato: 33%
Denver: 17%
Minnesota: 16%
or thereabouts. The last number I saw had Michigan +150 to win the title and Mankato something like +275. Based on a 33% chance of winning, they should be like +203.
Hughes was absolutely dreadful in mid Nov-early December. He's played like a Hobey winner ever since, to the point where I'm worried about not getting him back next year, even though he's always said the plan is two years.
I guess the good news is 1) He's still really young, only made last year's draft by like 5 days and 2) If any family is more than aware of the benefits of staying 2 years in college vs getting thrown right into the Nhl early, it's the Hughes family.
I actually thought Mackie was arguably our best forward in the last month before the Christmas break as well. The sky is the limit for him, especially if he can dial his shot in a little more/get it on net more often. I'm a huge fan.
That Hughes even strength stat is gonzo.
It made me sad when you said he could have up to six games to play. I'm not ready for this team to only have 2-6 more games....even with six potential first rounders coming in next year (and Hallum had a massive weekend vs the ntdp) we're never going to see a collection of talent like this again.
Minnesota was picked to win the Big Ten and they won the Big Ten. It's unfortunate that Michigan couldn't pull it off, but Minnesota is a darn good team and, as mentioned, they got their Hunwick when JLF (who hadn't played well this year) left.
I know Minnesota played down guys too, but it was a weird season overall with so many of our key players in and out of the lineup. I'm not getting too worked up about not winning the conference. A banner would have been nice, but, ah well. I don't hate that they're playing this week. Beat up on Sparty, get the Olympians back integrated and get humming again.
The tournament is going to be terrifying. But at least no more Sitarski, Aaron, Pochmara, Czech, Desrosiers........even if the grass probably isn't actually greener. I can't handle the officiating in this conference anymore. It's genuinely starting to impact my love of the sport because they're all so bad and so inconsistent.
They're overall still playing great hockey and they ran into their kryptonite team.
I'm hoping losing those guys for the Olympics benefits us in the long run. If you were to make a list of the things that could elevate Michigan from really darn good to great, they'd probably include:
-Beecher snapping out of his slump
-Lambert burying some of his chances
-Bordeleau playing more like last year when he was the best skater on our team (he hasn't been bad this year at all, but definitely less consistently noticeable)
-The freshmen taking "the leap" toward the end of the year.
What are we getting? Beecher scored against US, used his speed to set up Grano's goal Saturday, and his line with Mackie has been excellent.
Lambert scored 2 on Saturday, had an assist on Friday, scored against USA, and scored in the Saturday UW game.
Bordeleau has points in 5 straight and 9 of 10.
Hughes has shaken off a rough December and turned into an elite college hockey player. Mackie has been noticeably excellent for a couple of months now. Edwards is becoming more and more noticeably great. Duke has points in 4 of 6 and is being a giant pain. And Estapa just needs to dial it in a smidge and he's going to be an excellent, hard to play against, 4 year guy.
I really couldn't be much happier about how this is shaping up.
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Just to put a number to it:
KRACH would have Michigan 85.7% to beat AIC and 80.7% to beat Clarkson. It maybe isn't as big of a gap as it is some years, but I would still gladly take that extra 5% in single elimination.
Gustaf Westlund was a Mich commit as well!
Sad for him, good for us: Truscott was cut from the World Junior team so we should be able to have a functional defense corps. Blankenburg, Truscott, Edwards is not a bad top 3 at all, Summers and Pehrson have been rough this year but they've got a ton of experience. Then Keranen or Gingell as your #6, depending on if they need Keranen up front or not. I suspect they'll both dress since I don't think we have 19 bodies.
Supposedly Moyle has a post on IG that indicates he might be out too, but he has a protected account so I haven't seen for myself.
That's Shitarski, and he's called 4 majors on us this year....he's a special kind of incompetent.
I *do* complain about officials often. It's as much a part of my brand as Jimmy Vesey jokes. But they've been especially awful this year. Short of dragging Keith Sergott back out, I can't imagine them doing a worse job.
The majors are like targeting roulette combined with the replay official from Mich/MSU football. I don't get how incidental contact with a dude that is falling is a major, but blasting Brendan Brisson from behind (to the point he did a cartwheel) is 2 and no review. But then the hit from behind at the end of the ND game was 5. But the one in the Minnesota game (on us, forget who it was) wasn't. Hit to the head is a major, unless it results in the Michigan player's helmet breaking.
I can't even differentiate the Big Ten refs anymore. Aaron and Pochmara I've got. Sitarski has made the list. The rest is just an indistinguishable mound of suck, as opposed to the other three who are recognizable mounds of suck. There's not even anyone that I'm slightly relieved to see anymore. I actually thought Pochmara and Sheva called a decent series vs Minnesota (even though it was weird that the dominant team ended up in a huge penalty disadvantage each night) but Sheva was one of the guys who allowed the "puck through the side of the net" goal at the Kohl Center a few years back, which should have gotten him fired immediately.
They're all awful.
Beecher isn't going to like the film session for the third and fourth goals. He had a bad turnover for #3 and then broke his stick on the ensuing faceoff, dogged it to get another, and then it led to a guy streaking right past him for another goal.
Hughes has stunk for four straight games. Hopefully just looking ahead to WJC a bit and he'll refocus in the new year. He's had some great stretches but his turnovers are getting really problematic.
Selfishly I would not mind if Truscott (if he's even healthy) and Mackie didn't make the US team. The PWR cares not who is missing and our D corps is gonna be ugly if all 7 guys make their teams and Holtz is still out. Pehrson turned it over, which led to the PP psu scored goal 1 on, then turned it over for goal 6. You touched on Summers, he also blasted guys into both Portillo and West.
But they're basically 13-4-3 in the eyes of the PWR and Mel's teams have a history of being much better in the second half.
Dickerson is fabulous and he's fabulous regardless of what sport he calls. I feel like there's an every-so-often thing where he gets pulled in on hockey and it feels like I won the lottery for that day.
Agreed they won't get him, but that would be the absolute best person they could land.
I've saved every ticket stub from probably every game I've ever been to in any sport, so losing paper tickets doesn't thrill me either. I've taken to screenshotting my mobile ticket so I can eventually print them out. It won't be the same as the sheet of tickets where you'd tear them off one by one, but it'll at least be pretty much the same thing as the Print At Home tickets. It's still sad.
Could be a chicken or the egg thing too. Yes the level of competition isn't what it will be, but it also means that his supporting cast wasn't nearly as good as it will be at Michigan. Hard to say without seeing him play, but I'd much rather have a guy who was all conference as a freshman at a D1 school than someone who barely played and didn't put up good numbers when he did or someone we haven't seen yet, but that was very clearly brought in as a third goalie.
I have to think if nothing else, he's a solid backup and that we wouldn't set the season on fire if Portillo went down. I'm much more comfortable with our backup goalie position than I was.
Just to add some evidence on the others: Bordeleau was at Sharks camp last week and was asked if he was going to turn pro *after* this upcoming season and he more or less said he hasn't given it any thought and is taking it year by year.
Beecher did confirm his return in an interview a little while back as well.
Hockey also added RMU transfer goalie Noah West. He started for them as a freshman and put up pretty good numbers (9-8 with a 2.66/.915). Nice insurance policy against a Portillo injury and, since he still will have freshman eligibility, against Portillo having a huge year and going pro a year before Trey Augustine comes in.
Not to be totally pedantic because it's certainly close....Wisconsin's is just a tick smaller than Olympic. Olympic is 200x100 and I think the Kohl Center is like 200x97 (or thereabouts...That's what Wikipedia shows, but I feel like my buddy who works there said it was slightly different from that even. Can't find the text though)
I think they were talking about renovating the Kohl Center and part of that was going to be making the sheet full Olympic (or going down to standard....don't remember which), but I think that got Covid put on hold.