nope nope nope nope nope [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Searchbits: Back Against Its Will And Better Judgment Comment Count

Brian May 14th, 2019 at 4:16 PM

HELLO. I didn't expect to be doing this for another five years or so. But here we are. Here's your daily update on Michigan's basketball coaching search.

PORTER NO-SIR

Porter Moser has been brought up by both 24/7 and Rivals. This would be the worst possible scenario. His second-best Loyola team ranks 97th on Kenpom. The miracle run to the Final Four was the most fluketastic possible, with a buzzer-beater in the first round followed by two one-point wins and a nine-seed in the regional final. He's been at Loyola for eight years and has two .500 or better conference campaigns.

Moser has accomplished vastly less than Tommy Amaker, who's been to the tourney four times and has seven Ivy titles in 12 years at Harvard.

Moser would be hiring Brady Hoke. His main appeal appears to be a particular brand of stodginess that Michigan's old guard continually laps up. The kind of people still farting on like amateurism is worth preserving are in Moser's corner. And even that doesn't make sense. If you want more Beilein, just hire an assistant or LaVall Jordan. Moser is so far below the Yak line it's incredible anyone would even bring his name up. The concern with an assistant is that they might not be able to run a program at an elite level. We know for a fact Porter Moser cannot do this.

[After THE JUMP: tbh I'm on Team Juwan if we're not getting an established high level guy]

THE OMINOUS DIRECTION

Moser is one thing. The absence of Billy Donovan is another. Sam says he would be "very surprised" if Michigan reached out to Donovan because he is not perceived as a fit. This is a classic case of Michigan punching itself in the face so they can feel superior to people who aren't punching themselves in the face. Donovan endured an NCAA investigation into his recruiting practices in 2003 after Roy Williams, then at Kansas, accused him of cheating. It came back empty. (Yeah: Roy Williams, at Kansas, complaining about someone else cheating.) Here's some of the stuff they were furious about:

At the SEC Media Day gathering in Birmingham on Nov. 4 South Carolina coach Eddie Fogler, once a colleague of Williams’s at North Carolina, coyly questioned Donovan’s integrity by raising the subject of an unnamed SEC coach’s ties to Atlanta-based financial adviser Bret Bearup, who in August had bankrolled a trip to France for a team of high school stars that included Mike Miller, Nelson and Bonner. “It’s all legal, but is it ethical?” Fogler said.

Overseas trips as recruiting inducements. Michigan would never.

So many of the other names that are coming up early are equally or even more insane than Moser. Rivals brought up Bradley coach Brian Wardle as a "guy who will get a look." That is bonkers. Bradley got to the tournament this year after a 9-9 MVC season by scraping by in three straight conference tourney games against teams that were ranked 131, 171, and 177 on Kenpom. Also he's this guy:

“He pulled me aside and said their policy of me not given extra coverage opportunity was still in place, and I was not allowed to do any interviews. I told him, ‘The newspaper received the invitation.’ He said, ‘That was directed to (Huett), not to you.’ I said, ‘He doesn’t cover the team. I have for 29 years.’

“He responded by saying, ‘You don’t promote the Bradley brand, and basically we don’t want you here.’ I said, ‘Jason, that’s not my job to promote the Bradley brand. You know that.’

“He said, ‘That’s what we decided.’ I said, ‘Who’s we?’ He said, ‘Bradley University.’ I said, ‘You realize how petty this is, Jason?’ ”

Reynolds talked with Wardle, who echoed Bradley’s stance.

Wardle isn't even a one-hit wonder mid-major and he's got a giant red media relations flag. Hard pass.

Other names include fairy tales like Brad Stevens, who Sam gave the "I'm saying there's a chance" treatment to, and ludicrously bad options. Rivals just mentioned Mike Brey, who's 61 and finished last in the ACC this year, and a 61-year-old North Carolina assistant who hasn't been a head coach since a disastrous 64-86 run at FSU around the turn of the millennium. I mean: what? Billy Donovan can't get a look but we're putting a guy from Academic Fraud U on the list?

I guess the hope here is that the names getting thrown out are smoke screens and this will all be fine when a rabbit is pulled from the hat.

KEEPING THE BAND TOGETHER

This Woj bomb did not cause me to go into a catatonic state, so hooray.

That should help Michigan maintain their current staff in the event that an internal hire is required, or it's Juwan Howard and Howard wants an experienced college staff for the same reason Beilein wants an experienced NBA staff.

JUWAN: WHY NOT?

The one rumble from a reporter that hasn't caused me pain (please ignore Jay Williams's hot take):

Juwan Howard will apparently interview at Michigan as well. He's landed a third head coach interview in the NBA, this one with the Timberwolves. He was already a finalist for the Lakers and Cavs jobs.

And, honestly, if we're not doing Billy Donovan or Steve Prohm—who has inexplicably not drawn a single mention despite being the obvious best option amongst acquirable D-I coaches—I'm much more willing to take a swing on a potential home run than fart around with a mid-major coach who's a proven mediocrity.

Howard may be more likely to flame out in a few years than Moser but he's far, far more likely to be a combination of strategic chops and recruiting power. And he's also less likely to flame out in a few years.

RECRUITS STICKING WITH IT FOR NOW

Per Ethan Sears:

Despite this, 24/7 Evan Daniels put in lightning quick crystal balls for both to flip, Bajema to Washington and Wilson to Kansas. That seems absurdly premature. Both guys are signed and would have to ask out of their LOIs to switch. Michigan would no doubt allow this but they might at least ask the two guys to wait to see who the hire is. Brian Snow also talked to Wilson and explicitly said that he would wait to see who the hire was before making any final decisions.

OTHER GUYS NOT MENTIONED YESTERDAY

It's inevitable to omit a few reasonable options when you're surveying some 350 D-I programs. A couple names were brought up that are in the realm of the plausible.

randy-bennett

Randy Bennett, St. Mary's. 56-year-old has been the head coach at St Mary's for 18 years. In that time he's built the Gaels into Gonzaga's sidekick in the WCC. They've finished worse than second in the league just twice since Bennett got his program up and going in year three, and have two shared titles and one outright title in that time. He's got 7 bids in his tenure with one run to the Sweet 16, and they've made the tourney or NIT every year since 2008.

The Kenpom profile is encouraging, too: the Gaels have been 34th or better the last four years and haven't dipped below 67th for a decade. Two years ago they were 15th.

Two main issues. One: Bennett has lifetime job security at St Mary's—they handed him a ten-year contract a couple years back—and anyone who's had the level of success he's had at a mid-major and hasn't left is obviously inclined to be a lifer at his current location.

Two: St Mary's success has been built on a pipeline of Aussies. Last year's team had six on the roster. Maintaining that pipeline another four hours (and a connection) away from Australia might be tough. And partially as a result, Bennett's recruiting prowess is questionable. The St. Mary's all-time recruits list is a bunch of internationals and zero top 100 Americans. St Mary's is right outside of San Francisco and had a lot of success at a point where the Pac-12 imploded. Bennett's inability to recruit a four-star kid by accident during this period is a bit of a red flag.

Cooley-BET-Creighton

Ed Cooley, Providence. Cooley's the guy who looks like Bunk Moreland's older brother and honestly I had assumed he was ancient, which is why I didn't mention him. He's not. He's 49. After building Fairfield into a top-end MAAC team in five years he moved to Providence, which was then on a seven-year tourney drought and consecutive 4-14 conference seasons. After a couple years of building he got Providence to embark on a five-year streak of NCAA appearances, which was snapped this year.

Cooley hasn't been past the second round and only one of those teams, a 6 in 2015, was seeded to win a first-round game. That 2015 team is his high water mark on Kenpom at #27; the rest of his tourney teams are 44th to 63rd.

Cooley does have some recruiting juice. Last year he grabbed two top 50 players in the unfortunately named David Duke and AJ Reeves; this year's solitary croot is Greg Gantt, who's ranked 62nd. He could probably get some dudes in with Michigan's increased profile and recent success.

Cooley is a Providence native and could decide to stay at home. Probably not. But it's a possibility.

Mike White, Florida. His name keeps coming up but he seems to be in a gray area where he'd be super expensive and his results might not warrant it. He took over for Donovan four years ago; after an NIT season to start he's gotten a 4, 6, and 10 seed. The trajectory is not ideal, and he walked into a program that has a ton of resources and recent success.

He is recruiting really well, but it's boggling that his name is on the table for recruiting well at Florida and Billy Donovan is apparently "not a fit." White's at the same school doing the same thing without winning as many games. How do you think someone is recruiting well in the Year Of Our Lord 2019?

EMOTIONAL DEVASTATION LEVEL

inching upwards to 8.2 due to Moser prominence

Comments

TrueBlue2003

May 14th, 2019 at 4:50 PM ^

I like the Prohm idea but I'm not on board with Juwan Howard.  This just sounds like a terribly nepotistic idea.  He literally has no qualifications outside of being a former Michigan player.

He's never been a HC at any level.  He's never been responsible for an entire side of the court like Yaklich.  I mean, we have absolutely no data on Juwan Howard's ability to coach basketball.

As such when is the last time a former NBA star was a successful college coach?  Never?  Literally never in the last 30 years which is as far back as my memory and search history goes.  His being a former player means almost nothing.  The skills needed to coach and run a program (teach, delegate, motivate others, sell, etc) have almost no overlap with the skills needed to be a good player.

The Chris Mullin/Danny Manning experiments always end up poorly.  The list is very long and virtually without exception.

He's well below the Yak line for me.

TrueBlue2003

May 14th, 2019 at 5:43 PM ^

Have you paid much attention to type of guys that get head coaching gigs in the NBA?  The majority of them are terrible and get fired after a year or two.  The number one qualification for being a HC in the NBA is to get along with your star players so they don't quit on your team.  There's little to no teaching involved. 

It is light years different than coaching in college, which is why there is very little movement between college and NBA and guys that are good at one level are rarely good at the other level.

Being a highly respected NBA assistant means next to nothing in terms of his ability to be a good college coach, given the absence of any other data.

Mind you, I would take him over guys like Porter Moser that we know won't be elite in the Big Ten.  Howard at least has a non-zero chance.  But he's well below the Yak line for me.

If he's hired, I'll be rooting like crazy that the lottery ticket hits.  And if he keeps Yak on staff, his floor is pretty high unless he really Fs things up. 

TrueBlue2003

May 15th, 2019 at 2:36 AM ^

We have no evidence whatsoever that he's a good tactician.  He might be, but man, you don't take that chance at this level.  We have no evidence that he's a good teacher (knowledge is fine, everyone that's been in basketball a long time has a lot but it is far more important for a coach to teach what he knows).  We have no evidence that he's good recruiter.

We know Yak is a good tactician defensively, we know he's a good teacher, we know he's a solid recruiter.  The biggest question for him is whether he's a good delegator and his situation as the DC gives him a pretty good example of how you delegate. He's a MUCH safer choice. And his ceiling is just as high.

My list: 1) Donovan 2) Marshall 3) Prohm 4) Yaklich

Heck, if we're going former NBA star, why not Dan Majerle?  From TC, went to CMU, much of his family is in MI and he's done good work at GCU.  He wouldn't crack that Yak line for me but he'd be ahead of Howard.  His ceiling is a lot higher than Porter Moser.

If Juwan Howard didn't go to Michigan, his name wouldn't come close to this search.  His resume is non-existent.  So why would we do this to ourselves just because he went to M?

DMill2782

May 15th, 2019 at 9:31 AM ^

Well, Juwan's number one job has been player development for the big men on the Heat, particularly Hassan Whiteside and Bam Adebayo. Whiteside went from a G-League project to one of the league's top rebounders and defenders. Adebayo started coming into his own the last month of this season, which he credits Howard for, and he averaged 12 PPG and 9.3 RPG in just under 27 MPG. 

The fact Howard rose to the rank of top assistant so quickly on a staff that also includes longtime member Dan Craig speaks volumes about his Xs and Os. Spoelstra invested lots of confidence in him and so did Pat Riley. Those are two great coaches who trust Howard greatly. I'll take their word on it.

TrueBlue2003

May 15th, 2019 at 2:53 PM ^

Developing big men is so incredibly niche relative to everything a college coach has to do.  It's like hiring a position coach in football directly to HC.  It's super risky.

LaVall Jordan was widely credited with the development of guards while at Michigan (Burke, Stauskas, etc). Jordan has been a bad HC so far.

Bacari Alexander got a lot of credit "developing" Jordan Morgan, Mitch McGary, etc.  He was the Juwan Howard of Michigan's staff during some very successful years and parlayed it into a head coaching job.  He was an unmitigated disaster.

I think coaches get far too much credit for player development when 90% of it is the player himself.

Does Spoelstra delegate entire game plans to Howard like Beilein does with the defensive side?  If so, that's real confidence.  I don't think that's the case, though.

Howard might be a great coach.  But it's so much more likely that he won't be.  We'd be buying a lottery ticket by handing him this gig without ever having been a HC at any level and without ever having been on a college staff.  Let him climb the ladder.

Wolverine 73

May 14th, 2019 at 4:51 PM ^

I refuse to believe Warde Manuel is an idiot until he proves that he is.  This is an attractive job.  He isn’t going to settle for a guy like Moser whose only real success bordered on the miraculous. Every talking head is just throwing out names, hoping he is right and looks like a seer.  Manuel will presumably be more deliberate and more selective.

TrueBlue2003

May 14th, 2019 at 5:58 PM ^

He's closer to Patrick Ewing than Brady Hoke (who at least had some success as a college HC) and not even on the same planet as Jim Harbaugh.

Ewing was also a well respected longtime NBA assistant after a long NBA playing career who returned to his alma mater.

Ewing just piloted Georgetowns worst team in the kenpom era in season two.  His two teams (94th and 100th) have been significantly worse than any in the John Thompson era that preceeded him (he bottomed out at 69th in 2017).

That is abysmal at a place like Gtown.

The risk of hiring a guy with no coaching experience whatsoever at the college level is very high.  Making a hire like that is borderline insanity.  There's a chance for Howard, I guess, but the odds are not in his favor.  Would be vital to keep the current assistants there.

TrueBlue2003

May 15th, 2019 at 3:23 PM ^

Juwan Howard hasn't been given a job yet either.  But that is a fair point.  He'd probably get one eventually.  But again, the NBA coaching carousel is an insane revolving door with high turnover.  They throw things at the wall with abandon and most things don't stick.  And again, what an NBA team looks for is very different than what a college team should look for.

I wouldn't want 80% of current NBA coaches to be Michigan's coach.  So just being considered doesn't mean much to me.

michgoblue

May 14th, 2019 at 4:53 PM ^

This is depressing for a few reasons:

1.  Literally, every single possibility, even the unrealistic ones, are a downgrade from Beilein (who I consider to be an elite coach).  Even Donovan.  Maybe Stevens (not happening) would be a push.

2.  If it's not Donovan, Stevens (still not happening) or maybe Juwan, the downgrade is massive.  

3.  I just don't trust Warde to make this move.  I would feel so much better if Jim Hackett were handling this.

4.  To make matters worse, with Poole, Mathews and Iggy going pro (or semi-pro for some), the team is not going to be great next year.  Whomever is hired is going to get most of the blame from the media and casual fans.  Hard to follow a beloved, highly-successful coach when your first year is likely a transition year.  

5.  Because of the timing, t is likely that we will lose one or two of our incoming good recruits.

TrueBlue2003

May 14th, 2019 at 6:19 PM ^

1) That's an overstatement about the talent he had.  It's not like he was Kentucky or Duke who actually do have a bunch of fives stars.

Al Horford was 42nd in his class.  Noah was 71st.  I don't think he ever had more than one five star in any class (and had pleny of classes without a five star).  He developed a lot of guys in the Beilein sweet spot: 40th-100th.

2) His ability to recruit talent is a plus, not a knock. It never got him in trouble so it's not unreasonable to think he could get at least close to the same talent as he did at Florida.

michgoblue

May 14th, 2019 at 6:19 PM ^

The problem with what you say is that while Donovan and Stevens have accomplished more, they did so with the type of talent that you cannot secure in modern college bball unless you are willing to employ significant bag and get involved in the type of behavior that can get your program in serious trouble (if you are Michigan, not if you are Duke, UNC. Ky, etc., obviously).

Beilein did not get involved in this type of behavior and accomplished a ton with a roster pretty much devoid of top 25 talent.  If you gave Donovan the same rosters that Beilein had, I am not sure he gets the same results.  

Erik_in_Dayton

May 14th, 2019 at 4:54 PM ^

Given Coach Beilein's apparent reasons for leaving, I'm about this [ ] close to giving up on college basketball.  I may be done if Michigan is now in a position where staying clean means hiring a glass of warm milk.  The sport is absurd. 

M-Dog

May 14th, 2019 at 6:05 PM ^

It's not even "dirty".  There are literally $ Millions floating around, and we're talking about kids having to sneak around to get .001% of that. 

It's not an actual crime.  It's an artificial made-up situation. 

If a kid gets money, he is not stealing it.  He's getting it from somebody with plenty to spare who wants to give it out.

 

michgoblue

May 14th, 2019 at 6:25 PM ^

Dude, you might want to take a breather.  We are all upset about losing Beilein.  I don't think that Erik or anyone else said that the issue is that players don't deserve to be paid.  The issue is that TEAMS are cheating and getting away with it to the point that those who follow the rules simply have no shot at competing.

Whether we agree with the rules or not, the current rules state that players cannot be paid.  Some coaches - like Beilein - run programs that comply with those rules (since, like it or not, those are the rules in place).  Others, like Louisville under Pitino, thumb their noses at the rules and secure top talent by making payments of cash (violation of the rules) and getting recruits actual prostitutes.  Just take a look at some of the testimony in the recent FBI investigation.

Again, we can debate the issue of whether players should be paid, but under the CURRENT RULES, they cannot be.  Seems like the only way to win is to simply ignore the rules and cheat at will.  That is driving many fans away from college sports.  

lhglrkwg

May 14th, 2019 at 8:07 PM ^

Well if you give up on basketball, you can come follow hockey more closely where the whole thing is run by small schools who make your main method of recruiting against the rules and insist on having the post season tournament be a coin flip bracket in front of 50 people out in the "Midwest" regional which will be held in Bangor. Then you can decide which sport has the least infuriating system and stick with that one. I still haven't decided

Vinny The Microwave

May 14th, 2019 at 5:01 PM ^

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Michigan finally seemed over the hump of dumb ass, indefensible coaching hire decisions with JB and JH, after the dumpster fire that was ~1997-2014 (2007 for Hoops).

And now Moser is the leader in the clubhouse.  SMFH 

We will see I guess but I am not holding out any hopes for it to be anyone except Moser.

I wonder how, in his alone moments, Manuel convinces himself Moser is the best man for the job and it is going to be the home run UM hoops needs to grab the baton from JB and breakthrough to win a title.

A high school AD could see the man isn't qualified for the job.

Double-D

May 14th, 2019 at 5:05 PM ^

Warde.   Wake up and get over yourself buddy.  You got this. 

Don’t be David Brandon insecure of a strong personality.  You want a strong personality.   This program should be a top draw with deep pockets.

Just hire Yaklich, who I think would do very well,  if you don’t have the balls to go after the top names.    Beard would be my first choice.   Just pay the man.  

MH20

May 14th, 2019 at 5:08 PM ^

Anyone else open mgoblog, see a picture of Porter Moser and immediately freak the F out for a split second?

Please put article titles above the photo header!!!!!

B-Nut-GoBlue

May 14th, 2019 at 5:17 PM ^

Not sure I was calling for Beilein's head there but I was ready for Prohm back then, if we did.

 

https://mgoblog.com/comment/4336529#comment-4336529

B-Nut-GoBlue

January 11th, 2017 at 10:43 PM ^

How about Steve Prohm, Iowa State?!

Made move there after Hoiberg went to the Bulls from Murray St.

Yes, this name isn't Gregg Marshall or Archie Miller but I don't see either of those two coming here; based on nothing, just my dumb opinion (not that there's going to be an opening anyway).

Double-D

May 14th, 2019 at 5:25 PM ^

Is Warde doing this on his own?   Does he understand what a Kenpom is?    Can we get him some assistance?   Does he understand the value of this job and the program in relation to salary expense?   

I am now concerned which is not my nature. 

los barcos

May 14th, 2019 at 5:27 PM ^

Must remind myself.....

This is all the fog of war of a coach search.  This is all the fog of war of a coach search.  This is all the fog of war of a coach search.  This is all the fog of war of a coach search.  This is all the fog of war of a coach search.  This is all the fog of war of a coach search.  This is all the fog of war of a coach search.  This is all the fog of war of a coach search.  This is all the fog of war of a coach search.  

In all seriousness this is terrible news.  Here's the contact information for Warde.  Mgoblog community, you know what to do.  

jbrandimore

May 14th, 2019 at 5:31 PM ^

I'm not a super plugged in college basketball person, so I'm not sure how to rank the potential coaching candidates, including the in house assistants - so I did some research.

There were a total of 54 D1 coaching changes this spring to date. Approximately zero of these went to either of our assistants. I'm not trying to be down on them, but I think the fact that none of the other 54 schools who did a coaching search poached our guys does say something about how ready other colleges perceive them to be.

Of these 54 openings, 36 were at non P5 schools.

Old friend Billy Donlan got his first gig at University of Missouri, Kansas City. I think we all think well of Donlan, but it tells you a lot that his first gig is so far down the ladder, doesn't it?

Next note for those that think it's potentially crazy to consider Juwan Howard for the job.

Not one, not two but THREE former Detroit Pistons just got hired this spring.

Jerry Stackhouse at Vandy

Aaron McKee at Temple

Lindsay Hunter at Mississippi Valley State

To me, this evidence makes it clear that promoting one of our assistants would be crazy, but hiring Juwan would not be.