nope nope nope nope nope [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Searchbits: Back Against Its Will And Better Judgment Comment Count

Brian May 14th, 2019 at 4:16 PM

HELLO. I didn't expect to be doing this for another five years or so. But here we are. Here's your daily update on Michigan's basketball coaching search.

PORTER NO-SIR

Porter Moser has been brought up by both 24/7 and Rivals. This would be the worst possible scenario. His second-best Loyola team ranks 97th on Kenpom. The miracle run to the Final Four was the most fluketastic possible, with a buzzer-beater in the first round followed by two one-point wins and a nine-seed in the regional final. He's been at Loyola for eight years and has two .500 or better conference campaigns.

Moser has accomplished vastly less than Tommy Amaker, who's been to the tourney four times and has seven Ivy titles in 12 years at Harvard.

Moser would be hiring Brady Hoke. His main appeal appears to be a particular brand of stodginess that Michigan's old guard continually laps up. The kind of people still farting on like amateurism is worth preserving are in Moser's corner. And even that doesn't make sense. If you want more Beilein, just hire an assistant or LaVall Jordan. Moser is so far below the Yak line it's incredible anyone would even bring his name up. The concern with an assistant is that they might not be able to run a program at an elite level. We know for a fact Porter Moser cannot do this.

[After THE JUMP: tbh I'm on Team Juwan if we're not getting an established high level guy]

THE OMINOUS DIRECTION

Moser is one thing. The absence of Billy Donovan is another. Sam says he would be "very surprised" if Michigan reached out to Donovan because he is not perceived as a fit. This is a classic case of Michigan punching itself in the face so they can feel superior to people who aren't punching themselves in the face. Donovan endured an NCAA investigation into his recruiting practices in 2003 after Roy Williams, then at Kansas, accused him of cheating. It came back empty. (Yeah: Roy Williams, at Kansas, complaining about someone else cheating.) Here's some of the stuff they were furious about:

At the SEC Media Day gathering in Birmingham on Nov. 4 South Carolina coach Eddie Fogler, once a colleague of Williams’s at North Carolina, coyly questioned Donovan’s integrity by raising the subject of an unnamed SEC coach’s ties to Atlanta-based financial adviser Bret Bearup, who in August had bankrolled a trip to France for a team of high school stars that included Mike Miller, Nelson and Bonner. “It’s all legal, but is it ethical?” Fogler said.

Overseas trips as recruiting inducements. Michigan would never.

So many of the other names that are coming up early are equally or even more insane than Moser. Rivals brought up Bradley coach Brian Wardle as a "guy who will get a look." That is bonkers. Bradley got to the tournament this year after a 9-9 MVC season by scraping by in three straight conference tourney games against teams that were ranked 131, 171, and 177 on Kenpom. Also he's this guy:

“He pulled me aside and said their policy of me not given extra coverage opportunity was still in place, and I was not allowed to do any interviews. I told him, ‘The newspaper received the invitation.’ He said, ‘That was directed to (Huett), not to you.’ I said, ‘He doesn’t cover the team. I have for 29 years.’

“He responded by saying, ‘You don’t promote the Bradley brand, and basically we don’t want you here.’ I said, ‘Jason, that’s not my job to promote the Bradley brand. You know that.’

“He said, ‘That’s what we decided.’ I said, ‘Who’s we?’ He said, ‘Bradley University.’ I said, ‘You realize how petty this is, Jason?’ ”

Reynolds talked with Wardle, who echoed Bradley’s stance.

Wardle isn't even a one-hit wonder mid-major and he's got a giant red media relations flag. Hard pass.

Other names include fairy tales like Brad Stevens, who Sam gave the "I'm saying there's a chance" treatment to, and ludicrously bad options. Rivals just mentioned Mike Brey, who's 61 and finished last in the ACC this year, and a 61-year-old North Carolina assistant who hasn't been a head coach since a disastrous 64-86 run at FSU around the turn of the millennium. I mean: what? Billy Donovan can't get a look but we're putting a guy from Academic Fraud U on the list?

I guess the hope here is that the names getting thrown out are smoke screens and this will all be fine when a rabbit is pulled from the hat.

KEEPING THE BAND TOGETHER

This Woj bomb did not cause me to go into a catatonic state, so hooray.

That should help Michigan maintain their current staff in the event that an internal hire is required, or it's Juwan Howard and Howard wants an experienced college staff for the same reason Beilein wants an experienced NBA staff.

JUWAN: WHY NOT?

The one rumble from a reporter that hasn't caused me pain (please ignore Jay Williams's hot take):

Juwan Howard will apparently interview at Michigan as well. He's landed a third head coach interview in the NBA, this one with the Timberwolves. He was already a finalist for the Lakers and Cavs jobs.

And, honestly, if we're not doing Billy Donovan or Steve Prohm—who has inexplicably not drawn a single mention despite being the obvious best option amongst acquirable D-I coaches—I'm much more willing to take a swing on a potential home run than fart around with a mid-major coach who's a proven mediocrity.

Howard may be more likely to flame out in a few years than Moser but he's far, far more likely to be a combination of strategic chops and recruiting power. And he's also less likely to flame out in a few years.

RECRUITS STICKING WITH IT FOR NOW

Per Ethan Sears:

Despite this, 24/7 Evan Daniels put in lightning quick crystal balls for both to flip, Bajema to Washington and Wilson to Kansas. That seems absurdly premature. Both guys are signed and would have to ask out of their LOIs to switch. Michigan would no doubt allow this but they might at least ask the two guys to wait to see who the hire is. Brian Snow also talked to Wilson and explicitly said that he would wait to see who the hire was before making any final decisions.

OTHER GUYS NOT MENTIONED YESTERDAY

It's inevitable to omit a few reasonable options when you're surveying some 350 D-I programs. A couple names were brought up that are in the realm of the plausible.

randy-bennett

Randy Bennett, St. Mary's. 56-year-old has been the head coach at St Mary's for 18 years. In that time he's built the Gaels into Gonzaga's sidekick in the WCC. They've finished worse than second in the league just twice since Bennett got his program up and going in year three, and have two shared titles and one outright title in that time. He's got 7 bids in his tenure with one run to the Sweet 16, and they've made the tourney or NIT every year since 2008.

The Kenpom profile is encouraging, too: the Gaels have been 34th or better the last four years and haven't dipped below 67th for a decade. Two years ago they were 15th.

Two main issues. One: Bennett has lifetime job security at St Mary's—they handed him a ten-year contract a couple years back—and anyone who's had the level of success he's had at a mid-major and hasn't left is obviously inclined to be a lifer at his current location.

Two: St Mary's success has been built on a pipeline of Aussies. Last year's team had six on the roster. Maintaining that pipeline another four hours (and a connection) away from Australia might be tough. And partially as a result, Bennett's recruiting prowess is questionable. The St. Mary's all-time recruits list is a bunch of internationals and zero top 100 Americans. St Mary's is right outside of San Francisco and had a lot of success at a point where the Pac-12 imploded. Bennett's inability to recruit a four-star kid by accident during this period is a bit of a red flag.

Cooley-BET-Creighton

Ed Cooley, Providence. Cooley's the guy who looks like Bunk Moreland's older brother and honestly I had assumed he was ancient, which is why I didn't mention him. He's not. He's 49. After building Fairfield into a top-end MAAC team in five years he moved to Providence, which was then on a seven-year tourney drought and consecutive 4-14 conference seasons. After a couple years of building he got Providence to embark on a five-year streak of NCAA appearances, which was snapped this year.

Cooley hasn't been past the second round and only one of those teams, a 6 in 2015, was seeded to win a first-round game. That 2015 team is his high water mark on Kenpom at #27; the rest of his tourney teams are 44th to 63rd.

Cooley does have some recruiting juice. Last year he grabbed two top 50 players in the unfortunately named David Duke and AJ Reeves; this year's solitary croot is Greg Gantt, who's ranked 62nd. He could probably get some dudes in with Michigan's increased profile and recent success.

Cooley is a Providence native and could decide to stay at home. Probably not. But it's a possibility.

Mike White, Florida. His name keeps coming up but he seems to be in a gray area where he'd be super expensive and his results might not warrant it. He took over for Donovan four years ago; after an NIT season to start he's gotten a 4, 6, and 10 seed. The trajectory is not ideal, and he walked into a program that has a ton of resources and recent success.

He is recruiting really well, but it's boggling that his name is on the table for recruiting well at Florida and Billy Donovan is apparently "not a fit." White's at the same school doing the same thing without winning as many games. How do you think someone is recruiting well in the Year Of Our Lord 2019?

EMOTIONAL DEVASTATION LEVEL

inching upwards to 8.2 due to Moser prominence

Comments

ohaijoe

May 14th, 2019 at 4:38 PM ^

I say this with an open mind and kind of expecting to be ridiculed, but why are we assuming Juwan would be a great recruiter? Teenage recruits in 2019 weren’t even alive to see the Fab Five. Howard was in his late NBA benchwarmer phase by the time they would have been watching the league. And, unlike Penny Hardaway, Juwan doesn’t have AAU connections to draw on when recruiting. I’m a little afraid we’re all remembering how cool he was to us growing up and not thinking how he looks to current recruits. To them, he’s a former player, which may be cool, but it hasn’t helped Johnny Dawkins or Patrick Ewing secure monster classes.

 

edit: I forgot he has AAU connections because his child(ren?) played AAU, but he wasn’t a coach like Penny was.

TrueBlue2003

May 14th, 2019 at 5:28 PM ^

I'm not sure this is the case, though.

I think it's better for a coach to be able to talk about all the players he sent to the NBA since thats what college kids want.

Did you know Terry Porter, Danny Manning, Mark Price, Reggie Theus, Donyell Marshall and other former longtime NBA players are college coaches? No. You probably didn't because they are bad and they don't recruit well. 

kyeblue

May 14th, 2019 at 7:41 PM ^

very good point.

being former NBA player does not make you a better recruiter. the reason, exactly because most of us hardly remember them and know what they are doing any more.

Juwan would be a totally different cases from the get go, it will be one of the favorite stories on the national media from day one. Both Patrick Ewing and Chris Mullin do quiet well recruiting wise, which are more comparable with Howard back in Michigan.

 

TrueBlue2003

May 14th, 2019 at 8:06 PM ^

Georgetown's top signee in the last three years was the 76th player nationally.  They've signed just three top 200 (!!!) recruits in the last three cycles.  Georgetown has been bad the last two years and their recruiting has been far worse than it was under John Thompson.  They are not doing quite well.

Chris Mullin did ok recruiting.  I'm not going to look up how it compared to Steve Lavin's recruiting but Mullin failed to make the tournament and got fired after four years and was significantly worse overall than Lavin sooooo yeah.  Not great, Bob. 

shoes

May 15th, 2019 at 10:10 AM ^

I do not think we can assume that Juwan would be a great recruiter. It is a very unique skill-set and he has no experience or track record with it. Think he can be a solid NBA head coach, but I don't have a good feeling by how he would do at Mich. I want a young guy with college/high school connections with a ton of energy and a burning desire to excel. 

Still think Yaklich is worth the risk, because the upside is huge and I think the downside is more limited than many.

mGrowOld

May 14th, 2019 at 4:38 PM ^

So I'm wondering Brian is Warde getting pressure from somewhere to make a "Beilein-like" hire or is this of his doing?  No secret that I'm no fan of the guy but if he actually goes out and hires one of these candidates cause their somehow a better "fit" than the one obvious choice in Donovan I have to ask myself why.

You want to know the difference between OSU and Michigan these days?  When OSU had an unexpected job opening after Tressel got fired they put an interim HC in place and looked for the best possible replacement and got him.  Then proceeded to keep kicking our ass in football.

We apparently are content with hiring flaming mediocrity because that apparently "fits" better at Michigan than talent does.  

FatGuyTouchdown

May 14th, 2019 at 4:53 PM ^

Tressel got fired way closer to the season. A better comparison would be how they got Chris Holtmann two years ago around this time. Michigan basically needs to hire a coach, theres way too much time to just roll with an interim. Now, they could "hire" Yak or Saddi and give themselves outs if it doesnt go well, but they need a head coach, or this recruiting class will bail, and next one is fucked.

4th phase

May 14th, 2019 at 5:27 PM ^

I think Saadi and Yak have enough respect from current roster, current commits and future recruits to hold it down for a year. In my mind an interim situation is the best case right now. Then we emerge after next season as the premier job in the entire coaching carousel. Rushing into a hire like Porter Moser could crumble the program and set us back 10 years.

TrueBlue2003

May 14th, 2019 at 5:34 PM ^

Making a decision like hiring Porter Moser wouldn't be the result of bad timing.  It would simply be incompetence.  Rushing isn't the problem with this Porter Moser idea.

So the interim tag isn't something that would solve whatever forces are pulling you towards Moser. And slapping an interim tag on the assistants seems like a horrible idea.  We can't go a full year telling recruits we have an interim coach.  If we go with an assistant, I'd be fine with it, but go all in on him and show commitment to recruits.

You make a guy an interim coach when it's only for a month or two because you canned your HC midseason (or he quit like Bo Ryan).  It would be very detrimental to do it for 11 months.

 

Steve in PA

May 14th, 2019 at 5:42 PM ^

If JB thought enough of Saddi to leave him in charge last summer that carries weight.  I saw how the players and coaches interacted with him after JB got tossed at PSU.  If he gets the job and Yak gets the "Associate HC" title to build his resume that is fine.

Yak's coaching resume is thin at best.

Howard is just a no.  If he wasn't a M alum and former player nobody would even be considering it.  If JB was allegedly frustrated with the college system, what do you think someone coming from Pro's with no college experience would think.

TrueBlue2003

May 15th, 2019 at 2:20 AM ^

This is a very bad comparison.

1) Tressel resigned much closer to the start of football season.  So the interim tag was on for about half of the time it would be on a Michigan basketball coach if they slap it on now and wait almost a full calender year.  That's much longer for recruits to wonder who is going to be the next coach

2) Far more importantly, Urban Meyer stepped down at UF six month before Tressel resigned.  There was a 99.9% chance he would be available to OSU after taking a "mental health year" off to appease his family. They probably even talked to him about it to confirm.  So of course they punted the coaching search to give Meyer the season off before hiring him.  That was an insanely fortunate situation for them and also a no brainer.

Michigan basketball has no Urban Meyer waiting for them at the end of next season.  There's no reason to think the landscape will be any more friendly than it is now.  Donovan is probably available for the right price.  Gregg Marshall as well. Those two are about as good as you can realistically do.

Your last point is the correct one.  If we are going to make a bad hire because of some ridiculous notion of fit, it doesn't matter when the decision is made.  Now or next season will be the same.

It's interesting you make this comparison when OSU just replaced a legend with his top assistant.  Something Michigan could do, and probably should do (if they can't get Donovan or Marshall).   Hiring Porter Moser would be like OSU hiring...maybe Lane Kiffin instead of Day.  Good culture fit, bad actual results except for one season at a mid-major. 

jblaze

May 14th, 2019 at 4:46 PM ^

What about the Rutgers guy? He got Rutgers to kind of respectable, despite their pitiful basketball history. Also, he probably has NJ recruiting ties!

ypsituckyboy

May 14th, 2019 at 4:47 PM ^

If Warde's plan was to set expectations mind-bogglingly low by leaking all this Moser info to the premium sites, only to get the fan base excited by a non-Moser but still meh hire like Lavall Jordan, his plan is working marvelously.

True Blue 9

May 14th, 2019 at 4:48 PM ^

My big concern with Howard is, does he jump at the first NBA job and we're right back where we are today, in 3-4 years. That is not ideal.....

I mentioned Randy Bennett in a few posts yesterday and would be content with that hire and would actually prefer it over Yak or Saddi or LaVall. 
 

ScooterTooter

May 14th, 2019 at 4:49 PM ^

RE: Randy Bennett:

I mean Beilein just left guaranteed job security and potential god-status for a small shot at the 8th seed in a terrible conference at some point in the next three years. 

Oh and there is zero chance the NBA let's Cleveland have Zion Williamson.