10/20/2018 – Michigan 21, Michigan State 7 – 7-1, 5-0 Big Ten

No ghosts, no magic, no secret sauce: there's nothing hidden in Michigan State's recent run with Paul Bunyan. Most of the time they were a better football team than Michigan, and better football teams tend to win football games. All the noise was just that. Michigan lost games because they were bad football teams run by bad football coaches.

But holy hell, you just try to believe that when it's 7-7 despite a second quarter spent entirely on the Michigan State side of the field and it's raining and Michigan's fumbling like Urban Meyer trying to get his story straight and MSU's backup punter spears a disaster snap out of the air with one hand.

The Spartiest Spart of all Sparts.

The punter goes all OBJ, then booms a 60 yarder. Because, of course. pic.twitter.com/UwtUi2ZFkd

— Due# (@JDue51) October 21, 2018

Then he hits a 60 yard punt, which is nearly double his season average. If the Black Pit of Negative Expectations didn't rise up and claim you then, you are a better human than I. The rain, and the turnovers, and the improbable thing by the guy in the thing with the rain… etc.

Fortunately, it turns out that being a vastly superior football team is still a good way to win football games. The rain cleared, the five-star quarterback threw a pass to the five-star wide receiver for a 79-yard touchdown, and that was more or less that. All over but the shouting.

But this is Michigan-Michigan State, so the shouting is the main event.

---------------------------------

Jim Harbaugh described the pre-game dust up as "bush league," and that was about right. If you are a human like me who has been infected with the Lebowski virus your immediate thought was the Jesus ranting about BUSH LEAGUE PSYCH-OUT STUFF. And that's what it was.

There is no other reason to roll out on to the field in helmets and no pads—because that's a thing people do—ten minutes late, when you know various Michigan players will be on the field for their allotted whatever. And there's no other reason to walk through those players with your arms locked. Hell, it probably worked. Devin Bush went full Rick James on the Spartan logo at midfield shortly after; he picked up a mystery unsportsmanlike conduct flag in the first half.

In the aftermath, MSU beat writers are going into more detail about a confrontation that doesn't even warrant the term "kerfuffle" than any one of the many incidents that ESPN turned up when they investigated the Spartan athletic programs in the aftermath of Larry Nassar. The word "class" has been uttered. This is all a distraction.

Shouting is warranted. Shouting about some goons holding green bones trying to pull an imaginary one over on a team that will hold them to 93 yards of offense in the near future is not. Michigan State is, has been, and will be trash. Shout about that. Michigan State deserves no respect and should be treated with nothing but contempt.

#96 trash. Resulting to intentionally trying to hurt my teammate. pic.twitter.com/SV5cuoLW6O

— Michael Onwenu (@_MXKEY) October 21, 2018

This has always been true. An event like the above happens about every third year. That, too, is a sideshow.

This weekend on WTKA, Lorenzo White openly joked about the giant piles of steroids MSU was doing the last time they were relevant. This is a widely-reported fact that did not prevent George Perles from becoming an MSU trustee. An internal investigation cleared Perles; in 2008 Tony Mandarich admitted his steroid use and told Armen Keteyian that by the time he reached the NFL he was addicted to painkillers. It is an open secret that MSU did zillions of steroids in the early 1990s and that Mandarich exited Michigan State a ticking timebomb. Not only did MSU let that guy escape with his undeserved dignity intact, they put that guy on the board of trustees.

I mean, why not, right? The rest of the board consists of former football players, infamous slumlord/booster Joel Ferguson, the grandson of the guy the basketball arena is named after, and a couple people who don't even have a good reason to be a shameless lickspittle in the face of incontrovertible evidence that the institution they nominally govern is a failed enterprise. Collectively they said Lou Anna Simon should keep her job after the worst sexual assault scandal in the history of the United States.

So fuck Michigan State. Fuck their football and basketball teams especially, as they are the main drivers of the deranged culture that enabled Larry Nassar. There is a straight line to draw between Perles and the rest of his board to Mark Hollis to Lou Anna Simon, all of it enabled because Michigan State got to beat big brother in some sports sometimes. Nobody in power at that university cares about the woman subjected to Keith Appling and Adriean Payne's charms, or Auston Robertson's victim, or Travis Walton's, or the various people subjected to the presence of Michigan State players in events that weren't sexual violence but were sure as hell violent. So why would they care about insistent reports dating back 20 years about a doctor abusing gymnasts?

Well, you see, sometimes we get to rub the big in-state school's nose in it. So, obviously. It's all good.

------------------------

There's an undercurrent in the Michigan fanbase that MSU is beneath notice. This is wrong, but I get it. There was a point in time in the past when the best revenge was celebrating with Paul Bunyan in the locker room. This is no longer the time we have, for various reasons. One is Michigan having various bad football teams. The other is what happens when MSU is beneath notice.

[Patrick Barron]

You've been noticed. We see you for what you are.

Well Jim Harbaugh just doubled down on calling Michigan State "bush league." Pulled out a piece of paper and read an old quote from Mark Dantonio: "It's not a product of the team. It's a product of the program."

— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) October 22, 2018

HIGHLIGHTS

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

[Barron]

you're the man now, dog

#1(t) David Long, Lavert Hill, and Brandon Watson. The main drivers of a 5/25 passing performance. Joel Klatt, a former quarterback, reached untold depths of despair when trying to describe what Brian Lewerke was seeing downfield: absolutely nothing. Two points each because they're made up and don't matter and this section probably should have highlighted them more this season but doesn't because they barely get thrown at.

#2(t) Chase Winovich and Josh Uche. The other half of the dominant pass performance; three sacks between them, with Chase chipping in his usual level of run pursuit.

#3 Donovan Peoples-Jones. It was just one catch, but it was a good one.

Honorable mention: Karan Higdon had a Chris Perry kind of day. Shea Patterson had ups and downs but his legs are now a thing. (Don't tell any DCs about that.) The OL got another collective W.

KFaTAotW Standings.

8: Chase Winovich (#1 ND, #3 SMU, #1 NW, T2 MSU)
5: Karan Higdon (#1 WMU, #3 Nebraska, #3 Wisconsin).
4: Devin Bush(#3 ND, #1 Nebraska), Rashan Gary(#2 WMU, #2 Nebraska), Shea Patterson (#3 WMU, #1 Maryland), David Long(#2 Wisconsin, T1 Michigan State).
3: Zach Gentry(T1 SMU, #2 Maryland), Juwann Bushell-Beatty(T1 Wisconsin), Jon Runyan Jr(T1 Wisconsin), Donovan Peoples-Jones(T1 SMU, #3 MSU).
2: Ambry Thomas (#2 ND), Josh Metellus(#2 SMU), Brandon Watson(T1 MSU), Lavert Hill(T1 MSU), Josh Uche (T2 NW, T2 MSU).
1: Will Hart (#3 NW), Mike Dwumfour (T2 NW), Kwity Paye (T2 NW), Khaleke Hudson(#3 Maryland).

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

[Patrick Barron]

Donovan Peoples-Jones gives Michigan the winning margin in one giant play when everyone in the world thought a coinflip slog was in the offing.

Honorable mention: Jordan Glasgow rakes out a fumble. BPONE mitigated by a couple of deflected catches. Patterson stands in and hits Collins for a first-half TD.

​MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

Chris Evans fumbles to set Michigan State up at the 7, leading to a tie game and many sufferers of BPONE.

Honorable mention: Karan Higdon stumbles into the mesh point for another fumble. MSU's punter goes combo OBJ/Orin Incandenza. Patterson dorfs a couple of fairly easy TDs. The entire second quarter of implausibly not scoring.

[After THE JUMP: a SQUIRREL (not Devin Bush)]

OFFENSE

[Fuller]

The man. Michigan State entered the game with the #1 S&P+ run efficiency defense; Higdon put up 30 carries for 144 yards without a distorting super long carry—a long of 38 is probably in the heart of the distribution for someone who gets 30 cracks at it. Michigan's tackles finally met a post-ND defensive end they weren't entirely capable of handling in Kenny Willekes, but Higdon suffered just five yards worth of TFL on his 30 carries. The run game via the lens of Bill Connelly's fancy box score for the game:

• Michigan got 2.3 line yards a carry, which is slightly below the national average of 2.45
• Their success and opportunity rates were basically at the national averages.
• Michigan's highlight yard rate of 3.5 YPO was fairly bad.

That looks like a lot of solid moving that didn't get paid off by long runs quite as much as you'd expect, against a very legit opponent.

Patterson took some pressure; it was nothing like the ND game despite an MSU defense, emboldened by the weather, that ramped up the defensive pressure from their previous outings.

Note on the shot above. Warinner has a playsheet. I think the "Warinner got his hands in the run game after ND" theory is a pretty good one.

not McCaffrey fast but good enough [Fuller]

The legs! Patterson gained 37 yards on six carries. The impact of his running far outstrips the pedestrian numbers. Michigan's sealing TD drive to go up 21-7 was built largely on Patterson's legs, both actively on the fourth and two and a couple other plays and passively when his threat held guys outside on zone read belly.

Our podcast conversation about Patterson might have been a wee bit critical because I didn't take the weather into account. Michigan was able to grind out that TD drive with all of 8 passing yards, in a situation where MSU had to expect a bunch of stuff on the ground. There were a bunch of hiccups in this game but Patterson was able to grind out the win. This was something I was skeptical about early in the season when it seemed like he really didn't want to run the ball on option plays; no longer.

The combination of a legit, if infrequently deployed, dual threat QB with Patterson's evident passing ability is not one you see often. If he can just smooth down the rough edges… but there are some rough edges.

The hiccups. Patterson eschewed a couple opportunities to significantly decrease our collective BPONE. Michigan's first drive ended on third and three when Michigan's formation got MSU significantly misaligned but Patterson didn't pull:

Patterson missed a TD on zone read arc. MSU was a gap short with the arc if Patterson beats the DE. Unbalanced formation had MSU short weak side because they were in Cover 1.

— James Light (@JamesALight) October 20, 2018

The DE didn't crash to make the read dead obvious but was inside far enough that Patterson almost certainly would have gotten the corner like his first-down conversion against Wisconsin, and then there was nobody else between him and the endzone except Sean McKeon. Harbaugh said he liked Patterson's decisions in this game except the first one; that first one must have had a few guys in the box hopping mad. Also: me.

Later, Patterson missed DPJ when he was the only guy on his third of the field. That would have been a touchdown; Patterson did make a nice throw to Eubanks for a chunk. Michigan did cash that drive in. They did not on the third Clue GIF moment of the first half, when DPJ broke open on a corner route that Patterson somehow did not throw. He had plenty of time; he had a half-field read; he had to have seen it. He did not pull the trigger.

Even with the frustration of most of the first half it was really easy to see Michigan up 21-0 at halftime, which would have saved many of our adrenal glands and livers.

 

more of this please [Barron]

Take the shot. Patterson's issues above follow on from those we saw against Northwestern and Wisconsin. Patterson's doesn't want to throw it into coverage even when it's coverage that Michigan should have an advantage on. (IE, Nico Collins versus anybody.) Michigan's last play of the first half was a relief despite the fact it hit the ground. DPJ was nominally bracketed but got over the top; a slightly longer throw was probably a TD. Keep doing that.

Patterson's second-half accuracy issues were probably related to the weather. He has not missed guys short like he did on the DPJ-to-Gentry deflection and Grant Perry rake-out all year.

BTW, good job Grant. The secret play of the game was that rake-out, which prevented another turnover deep in Michigan's territory.

TE blocking issues. Not going to be a great week for them in UFR, I predict. Willekes delivered Gentry into Patterson's lap on one TFL; McKeon had a couple of missed assignments on plays that seemed likely to work if he got a hat on his dude.

Argh. Maaan that slant to Evans that got batted down at the LOS might have been going places. Hopefully we explore that a bit more down the stretch, especially if a team is going to try to cover him with a linebacker.

anyone want to tackle me? no? [Barron]

Wearing on 'em. Michigan got stronger in the second half as MSU's defense gradually faded, culminating in a nine-play drive that was all on the ground and ate six minutes off the clock. Just before that, Michigan's third touchdown featured Ben Mason virtually untouched while scoring from the five.

Don't know if that's Ben Herbert or just the natural consequence of being a defense opposite an offense that isn't going to score by itself no matter how long the teams played. Michigan has certainly had its share of stellar defensive performances that melted at the end of the game due to tiredness and a lack of morale. Often in this game.

DEFENSE

[Fuller]

Where was the script? The onslaught of new stuff MSU brings to this game annually completely failed to materialize. The trick play touchdown was the only play Michigan definitively took an RPS L on, which stands in marked contrast to previous years. Maybe they used their cool stuff against Penn State? Best guess: morale was low after the Northwestern game, so Dantonio pushed his chips in against PSU and didn't have any time to build up a reserve afterwards.

The result. The kind of beating that happens about twice a year across the vastness of college football.

Per @The_Mathlete, in the last ten years, this is the 20th <100 yard performance and the 34th of a 4-to-1 (or greater) yardage ratio.

— Bryan Mac (@Bry_Mac) October 22, 2018

The Rutger. Patrick has a thing: when you get fewer yards than your opponent has points, that is a rutger. There can be a passing or rushing rutgers when half of your offense does the deed. Michigan (21 points) inflicted a rushing rutger on Michigan State (15 rushing yards). This is not an advanced stats rutger, which would move sack yardage to the passing game. Last week Wisconsin had a passing rutger until Hornibrook hit some passes on their late TD drive.

The infamous 78-0 game was a Total Rutger, and was in fact a Double Total Rutger: Michigan had twice as many points as Rutgers had yards.

This concludes your introduction to The Rutger.

[Barron]

No flags. Until Ambry Thomas got hit on MSU's Dignity Drive no Michigan DB had been flagged in this game. Lewerke aided with a bunch of balls that were so bad no sane person would throw a flag, but even so there were several moments in the game where I braced myself. Not because Michigan had committed clear interference, but because when you're rubbin' the cost is often a ticky-tack flag or three.

Not here, because Michigan was able to clearly win over the top and this was not a Sun Belt crew. This applied even to Felton Davis before his injury. MSU had no answer for press man coverage.

[Barron]

Uche 2018 == Winovich 2016. Except moreso. Josh Uche leads Michigan in sacks with five despite getting on the field for maybe 20% of Michigan's snaps. With the exception of last week's freebie against Wisconsin these have all been earned, with Uche ripping past OL en route to excellent edge rush. His early sack in this game was Extremely Chase Winovich, as he gets around the corner at eight and then closes the distance faster than you'd think he can:

*except to watch Uche sack Leweeky pic.twitter.com/gkayYSNKUC

— Due# (@JDue51) October 21, 2018

The hand action there is excellent. BANG, Uche puts the guy's hands down; guy replaces; BANG, now I'm gone. The closing speed finishes the play. After a somewhat slow start that may have been more sample size than anything Uche has rounded into the impact sub-package guy and drive killer we were hoping for preseason. In this he is precisely Winovich from two years ago when he'd get about 12 snaps a game and get three pressures on those snaps. This will be the third straight week Uche has significant UFR positives despite a relatively limited role.

Uche also brought it in a postgame interview:

Michigan's Josh Uche (@_Uche35) supported Devin Bush's pregame actions.

"All that celebrating, all that talking they were doing before the game, they just fueled the fire." pic.twitter.com/0ThCCRKc4H

— Brad Galli (@BradGalli) October 20, 2018

I wonder if he can add another ten pounds and become a functional run defender. If so he's gotta be the leader for Winovich's spot next year.

Ross sideline action. Not a lot even got to the linebackers in this game; it was encouraging to see Ross track down one of those counter pitch plays for two yards, with help from Winovich. Bush's ability to get to the sideline has been a major part of Michigan's suffocating defense over the past year and a half. Ross flashes the ability to continue that into 2019.

[Fuller]

I just like this picture. It is of Josh Metellus.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The one thing MSU apparently saved. MSU's backup punter had been abominable this year and was largely abominable early in this game. Then he started rolling out and booting rugby kicks in the rain. A couple of these zinged by his blockers and could easily have been blocked by his own guys just past the LOS; they were not. Instead they became line-drive missiles DPJ had no shot at returning and got to roll for 15-20 yards, aided by the wet carpet and the general bloody-mindedness of the universe.

Michigan should try to do better against these punts; here a total lack of pressure on the edge allowed the punter to get a comfortable kick off after allowing his guys to run downfield.

Someone thwack Quinn Nordin in the targeting circuit. Hopefully that was more about the conditions than anything else.

MISCELLANEOUS

SQUIRREL. This little guy didn't need a fumble to reach the endzone.

[Barron]

He managed to escape before MSU put him in the game at center.

Head: wall. Michigan pulled a Chryst on two first half drives. Or one, depending on your point of view.

The first was a fourth and ten from the 35. Michigan tried to draw MSU offside, took a delay penalty, and punted. Given the later Nordin field goal attempt I get why you're not trying the 52-yarder there. Michigan's playcall on third and ten, a slant to Evans that was open but batted at the LOS, made sense in context. I'd still try the field goal, I think. I kind of get the decision.

The second was completely indefensible: fourth and five from the MSU 38. Michigan's good at third and medium, MSU's not great at it, and the upside of a punt there is close to nil. I often say that when you're in a 1950 game you can make 1950 decisions. This was not a 1950 game unless MSU had the ball.

[Barron]

Apparently fine? JBB was able to walk off after getting rolled up on during the Mason touchdown run, and has since reported that he's good to go. That's the second very bad looking injury (Dwumfour's the other) that Michigan's escaped more or less unscathed on this year. Phew. It would have been brutal for JBB to get knocked out just as he was rounding into a player.

His replacement was interesting: Andrew Stueber, who was apparently behind Mayfield and Hudson earlier this season. Hudson could be hurt; Michigan may want to hold game #4 for Mayfield just in case. But Stueber looked pretty good on Michigan's clock-kill drive.

But why though? Michigan State brought out their basketball team during the game. Patrick got a photo and everything:

Nick Ward's finally out of the wheelchair [Barron]

The football team was inspired to also lose to Michigan by double digits.

HERE

Best and Worst:

Worst: SO MANY OFFSETTING PENALTIES

This is probably the millionth time I've said it already in this diary, but Michigan-Michigan State is a big rivalry, with a lot of bad blood on both sides. People got into a fight a couple of hours before the game started, and then multiple adults protected some grass in the center of the field because they were legitimately concerned that Devin Bush or some other Wolverine would come out and Rick James the logo. So I get that tensions were high. But I don't think I've ever seen 4 sets of off-setting personal foul penalties in a game, nor 8 unsportsmanlike penalties overall, like I did here. Some of them made sense; there were a couple of "guys throw jabs at each other after the play" and the like that are called, especially early on, so that the referees can hopefully quell future, heightened aggression. But at some point, guys were getting called for penalties for apparently flexing (as Bush was), stopping an MSU defender from tearing a guy's leg, and tackling MSU too hard.

That said, my biggest concern (that the refs would bail out Lewerke's terrible throws with PIs) never really materialized, much to the chagrin of MSU fans and with delicious irony to everyone else who had to watch their corners sit on receivers for a decade. In a game with an hour lightning delay, hail, and crazy rain, that was one act of the fates too many for MSU to expect to bail them out.

Oh yeah some plays annotated with MS paint, that's the stuff:

On Michigan's clinching drive, the running game was working well. Michigan's favorite running play against Michigan State was a pin-and-pull zone play, usually to the left, from the shotgun. Michigan's linemen were effective stepping outside and opening creases through which Karan Higdon could cut upfield.

As a result, MSU had to commit heavily to stop the play.

Michigan is in the red zone. The coaches want blood. The call looks like a pin-and-pull zone to the right.

Higdon will press toward the sideline, and then cut upfield. MSU defends this with seven players, but they are aggressive; the weak side linebacker must charge to the hole to prevent Higdon from getting upfield past him and gaining chunk yards. Michigan will try to get a blocker on him; on the backside, Runyan leaves the defensive end unblocked to head toward the WLB. As he has on every other pin-and-pull zone, Shea Patterson stares straight at the EMLOS, the only defender not charging for the space Higdon will be running through.

The State of our Open Threads:

- In games where someone is an "ass" or someone is playing like "ass" more than 20 times, we are 3-1, so despite a lot of ass, we generally perform well enough in 2018.

Overall efficiency, which is the number of tracked instances over the number of posts, was 2.49. That's the highest number thus far in the season and, in the Harbaugh era, is consistent with either a stressful win or close loss.

Fun with defensive charts.

ELSEWHERE

Postgame:

We had to sing the song one more time... #GoBlue 〽️ pic.twitter.com/P8sp5bKdR5

— Michigan Football (@UMichFootball) October 20, 2018

Kinnel postgame.

Mmmm, salt.

MSU radio’s George Blaha was big mad after Michigan won.

“They’ve stormed field as if they’ve won the National Championship.” pic.twitter.com/OLkU6x9trH

— The Wolverine Lounge (@WolverineLounge) October 21, 2018

Remember this jabroni?

Well, karma didn't take long there.

The thing about Michigan and it's fanbase is the condescention and pretentiousness is only millimeters below the surface. The moment they get a millimeter of daylight it's back to business as usual. https://t.co/6jS2JiJbwq

— SpartanWire (@SpartanWire) October 20, 2018

Okay Crowley.

So this Mahmoud Ahmadinejad thing is going to keep happening I guess?

Watched highlights of the @UMichFootball and @MSU_Football great effort by both teams; as always a hard work ethic pays off. pic.twitter.com/p9XnUlwkwU

— Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (@Ahmadinejad1956) October 21, 2018

Dude thinks that 9/11 was an inside job, so he's a natural for college football message boards.

Sap's Decals:

They all count as one but win #950 for the University of Michigan turned the corner for Jim Harbaugh’s program. He is now 2-2 against MSU and can now look forward to a bye week and November – where wins matter the most.  But if you want to look back one more time, Bob Ufer summed up the feelings & emotions of the Michigan fan base some 39 years ago when Michigan won their “Revenge Bowl” against MSU in 1979:

Revenge Bowl or Revenge Tour, whatever you want to call it, does it sound or feel familiar? Either way, it feels Great – to be a Michigan Wolverine!
Onward!!

MVictors. Maize and Blue Nation. TTB. Maize and Go Blue. HSR:

There will people frustrated that Michigan has "lowered" itself to Michigan State's level, cries of "We're better than this!" and "Act like you've been there before!"  In the past, I might have even agreed with this, but I realize now, Michigan needs to loathe Michigan State as much as Michigan State loathes them.  They need to feel it deeply and completely, allowing it to permeate every membrane of their collective selves, seeping into every crack, and filling them with the same devotion to getting the job done.  Michigan State has made a living off trick plays and luck that defies math for the last decade (seriously, Mark Dantonio may actually have assembled all of the pieces of the Weather Dominator, having successfully stolen them from GI Joe), Michigan could not afford to say "Ohio State is the only rival that matters" any longer.  They understood it.  They heard the narratives, 1-5 against rivals, haven't beat a ranked team on the road since 2006, they knew the world needed to erase those narratives and the only way that you can do that is to win this game.

Dan Murphy:

Two down, one to go in a crucial stretch for Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines. Michigan ran over Wisconsin a week ago and survived what at points looked like a perfect storm of rivalry-game anarchy in East Lansing this week. Shea Patterson made a handful of plays that this offense wasn't equipped to make in past years to flip momentum in Michigan's direction in the second half. Defense is still the cornerstone in Ann Arbor, but if this team gets past Penn State after a bye, they look well-rounded enough to compete for a Big Ten championship. -- Dan Murphy

PFF top grades from the game:

Michigan Offense

Jon Runyan, OT – 75.3 overall

Grant Perry, WR – 69.0 overall

Karan Higdon, RB – 69.0 overall

Nico Collins, WR – 62.6 overall

Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR – 62.1 overall

Michigan Defense

Chase Winovich, Edge – 78.3 overall

David Long, CB – 78.1 overall

Lavert Hill, CB – 68.4 overall

Josh Metellus, S – 65.4 overall

Devin Bush, LB – 64.5 overall

Michigan sticks at 4 in S&P+. After the Purdue-OSU game it has Michigan a two-point favorite in Columbus. Gary on the verge of a return? Slippery Rock has a transitive W over Ohio State now. Michigan is currently the best-positioned team with a loss in CFP terms.