Hello, friends. Sorry I missed you last week. I tried to call, but it went straight to voicemail. Anyway, evil forces set upon me from realms where men dare to tread last week, which happened to coincide with the end of the fiscal quarter, so I couldn't do the thing. As my way of apologizing, please look under your seat. I have left a gift for each of you.

About Last Week

Michigan won and this is a binary win/lose sport so no need to look any deeper.

Barron

The Road Ahead

Maryland (3-1, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Minnesota, 42-13; Bye

Recap: Maryland had a bye this week, so the Minnesota game was the last piece of evidence we will get about Maryland before they play Michigan. And this latest piece of evidence was weird. Really, really weird. How does a team that scored zero offensive points and average 3.75 yards per play against Temple turn around and score 35 points (on 10 drives) and 8.47 yards per play against Minnesota? I suppose it’s possible Minnesota is just that bad, or that the Temple game was just a blip… but I don’t think you can write a coherent narrative of Maryland’s first four weeks that doesn’t contain at least one shrug emoji.

This team is as frightening as: Plinko, but where the $0 spots are replaced with “kick in the junk.” Fear Level = 6

Michigan should worry about: Maryland still has one of the most explosive running games in the country: they are #3 in the country in S&P+ marginal explosiveness and #6 in IsoPPP, and they lead the country in carries of 20+ yards against FBS competition. Maryland also has the #1 and #2 backs in terms of yards per carry: Anthony McFarland is averaging 10.78 YPC, and Ty Johnson is at 7.50 YPC.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Remember how Minnesota made Michigan’s offense look last year? Yeah, they might not be the best barometer

When they play Michigan: Don Brown was born forged out of assorted scrap iron and push brooms to stop spread-to-run teams like Maryland.

Next week: @ Michigan, noon, ABC (Maryland +17.5)

[AFTER THE JUMP: additional things]

Wisconsin (3-1, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at Iowa, 28-17; Bye

Abandon all hope, ye who enter here (Liz Martin/The Gazette)

Recap: One look at Iowa’s schedule for this year told you last week was gonna be How-The-Hell-Did-Iowa-Do-That Week at Kinnick. The game where Kirk Ferentz turns in his Risk cards for extra armies, and places them immediately in his Oceania stronghold. Or where he takes his remaining vacation day for the year to organize the garage and basement. Where he pushes all his chips onto the felt and then stands on a 7 when the dealer is showing a face card, only to have the dealer bust.

Well, Wisconsin survived Kinnick… barely. They trailed Iowa by three with under one minute left, and needed an 88-yard drive to take the lead. But both Michigan and Ohio State fans can tell you that a four-point win at Kinnick is plenty. But then Wisconsin added an end around touchdown FROM A TIGHT END to bump the gap to 11 points. Because Big Ten.

This team is as frightening as: Regular Wisconsin, which is a downgrade from Mildly Impolite Wisconsin. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: The running game remains extremely efficient, and Jonathan Taylor has cracked 100 yards every week.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: By itself, you could just chalk this last game up to Kinnick. But if you lump in the BYU game, it looks like Wisconsin may not be the polite Midwestern steamroller we expected.

When they play Michigan: Lotta big guys.

Next week: vs. Nebraska, 7:30 p.m., BTN (Wisconsin -21)

[After THE JUMP: an exclusive look inside the mind of Frames Janklin]

Michigan State (4-1, 1-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at Indiana, 35-21; Beat Central Michigan 31-20

Recap: Two roads diverged in an Axe Body Spray wood. On was labeled “DO NOT GO THIS WAY THERE ARE HUNGRY WOLVES AND ANGRY TROLLS AND THEN JUST A CLIFF.” The other was labeled “this is fine, no predators or huge drops.” And yet, time and again, people choose the wolfy-trolly-droppy path.

On one hand, teams CAN NOT run the ball on Michigan State. They are surrendering a nation-best 1.49 yards per carry. They are the #1 S&P+ efficiency rushing defense. They hold runs to zero or negative yards on 32.6% of carries, second-best in the country. At the same time, they are the #86 pass defense, And yet, teams are averaging 27 carries per game. A low number, to be sure… but it should probably be lot lower.

At the same time, Michigan State CAN NOT run the ball. They are averaging 3.33 yards per carry, which is #115 in the country (2nd worst in the Big Ten, 5th worst among Power 5 teams). They are #108 in S&P+ rushing efficiency. And those numbers are buoyed by a handful of successful jet sweeps; when you look only at running back carries, they are only averaging 3.7 yards per carry, and NONE of their backs are averaging more than 4.23 yards per carry. And they haven’t exactly played a murderer’s row of defenses.

It is true that LJ Scott has missed the last couple of weeks. But he has arguably been MSU’s least effective back over the last 1.3 seasons, so it's arguable how helpful his return would be. Also, Sparty is on the road this weekend, and if history is any indication, “let’s rely on LJ Scott for this road trip” is not a particularly good strategy.

This team is as frightening as: The non-zero chance that Michigan State is sandbagging this entire first half of the season to prep for October 20. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: Michigan State will average 4.8 yards per carry against Michigan because the Universe is an asshole.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Injuries continue to take a toll. The line can’t get healthy, their replacement punter is averaging 37 yards per punt (net of 31.9) with Jake Hartbarger out, and MSU just lost (arguably, not not arguably) their best receiver, Cody White, to a broken hand.

When they play Michigan: Mark Dantonio will look super grumpy.

Next week: vs. Northwestern, noon, FS1 (MSU -11.5)

Penn State (4-1, 1-1 B1G)

Last week: Won at Illinois, 63-24; Lost to Ohio State, 27-26

Recap: One point game. Penn State with all three timeouts. Game on the line. 4th and 5.

We’d better get this one right. Timeout, Penn State.

Timeout, Ohio State. It seems they have seen what we have planned, and they have decided to counter-plan. Excellent. The battle of wits has truly begun.

 

I have now seen their counter-plan, and it appears they seek to stop the thing that we had planned. Better take another timeout to be sure of our plan.

Okay. Now we’re good. Let’s do this.

Wait, yo Trace. TRACE. Look at me, man. Let’s think about this some more.

Okay, go. WAIT, TRACE, LOOK BACK AT ME. Here’s the final, FINAL plan. We’re gonna… uh…

…wait, what were we talking about?

Oh shit, they’re all looking at me. There’s some confusion, and the play clock is almost down to zero. Unfortunately, there’s no mechanism in football to stop a running clock once it’s started. Think, James, THINK. Can we give it to Saquon? No, no, he left. Shiiiiit. Okay, maybe we should try to establish the run. When in doubt, go with the fundamentals.

 

Welp.

This team is as frightening as: Good Cop/Bad Cop from the Lego Movie. They alternate between harmless, bumbling, moderately functional Jekyll and relentless, murderous Hyde, but always with a vague sense of not being real.

Other than Maryland, Penn State is the team on which I have the least grasp. They go to overtime against App State. And they get outplayed by Pitt for 30 minutes. But then they blow the doors off Pitt in the second half, and beat the tar out of Kent State. Then they play Illinois tooth-and-nail for 3 quarters, before putting up 35 (!) in the 4th quarter. Then they outplay Ohio State for 52 minutes and build a 12 point lead. And then… not. Fear Level = 9.8 or 6.5

Michigan should worry about: Trace McSorley is a problem on the ground. He rushed for 175 yards against Ohio State, and is averaging 7.8 yards per carry (sack-adjusted).

Michigan can sleep soundly about: McSorley’s passing numbers are down from last year, and even further down from 2016:

• 2016: 9.3 YPA, 57.9% completions, QB Rating of 156.9
• 2017: 8.4 YPA, 66.5% completions, QB Rating of 153.7
• 2018: 7.6 YPA, 52.9% completions, QB Rating of 137.8

This could be the Moorhead Effect, but it’s too soon to tell.

When they play Michigan: No white-out, thank Jeebus.

Next week: Bye

Rutgers (1-4, 0-2 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Buffalo, 42-13; Lost to Indiana 24-17

Recap: New phone. Who dis?

This team is as frightening as: Driving over the Mackinac Bridge on a calm day in a nice reliable automobile. You know that there is no realistic danger. You can see the long line of cars, some of which look much less road-ready than yours, that have safely and routinely crossed the span without incident. But you know what would happen if something somehow went wrong. You know it has happened to other people. And they all presumably assumed they would be fine, too. Fear Level = 1.5 (with juuuuuuuuust a hint of 9.97)

Michigan should worry about: Uh… Raheem Blackshear is averaging 5.2 yards per carry, which is the same as JK Dobbins. So, by definition, he’s as good as JK Dobbins.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Artur Sitkowski is averaging 3.7 YPA (sack-adjusted), and Giovanni Rescigno is averaging 4.1. they have combined to throw 2 TDs and 9 INTs.

When they play Michigan: 60 minutes of Adam West-era Batman TV show fight scene sound effects.

Next week: vs. Illinois, noon, BTN (Rutgers +3.5 but if you place your hard-earned money on this game I will report you to someone)

Indiana (4-1, 0-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Michigan State, 35-21; Won at Rutgers 24-17

Recap: Indiana’s transformation from #CHAOSTEAM is seemingly complete. The warning signs had been there: a 17-9 loss to MSU and a 24-14 win over Illinois last year, a 20-16 win over Virginia earlier this year, and a lackluster offensive performance against MSU in week 4. But last Saturday was the last straw, as Indiana built a 24-7 halftime lead on Rutgers (as one does), and decided, “no, no need to risk bad things: 24 points is plenty.” They were shut out in the second half against Rutgers. This is only the second time since joining the Big Ten that Rutgers has shut out ANY conference opponent in ANY half (and, as a reminder, Illinois existed for that entire period, and Rutgers played them multiple times). The last time? Their first ever conference game in 2014, when sophomore Christan Hackenberg and Penn State failed to score in the first half.

This team is as frightening as: Sorry, fellas.

 

Fear Level = 4

Michigan should worry about: The defense is still pretty good.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Indiana is basically neck-and-neck with Rutgers for the least explosive team in the Big Ten. This is, as you might imagine, not great company to keep.

When they play Michigan: The Northwestern game… but stupider.

Next week: @ Ohio State, 4:00 p.m., FOX so it will take F*CKING FOREVER so don’t watch (IU +26.5)

Ohio State (5-0, 2-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Tulane, 49-6; Won at Penn State 27-26

Recap: Hey look at that we’re out of words again.

This team is as frightening as: Very. Fear Level = 9

Michigan should worry about: Offense, defense both good.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: James Franklin won’t be doing strategery for Michigan.

When they play Michigan: Last game of the season.

Next week: vs. Indiana, 4:00 p.m., FOX (OSU -26.5)

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Notre Dame (5-0)

Last week: Won at Wake Forest, 56-27; beat Stanford 38-17

Recap: Okay, Notre Dame is good.

After a couple of lackluster weeks, Notre Dame laid the hammer down on Wake Forest and, more impressively, Stanford. Not coincidentally, this coincided with Ian Book taking over under center. Book has completed 74.3% of his passes for 8.8 YPA and 7 TDs, and has yet to throw a pick.

The rest of Notre Dame’s schedule looks, as they say, pretty manageable. They travel to Blacksburg this weekend, but VT already lost to Old Dominion, and they are down a Josh Jackson. Florida State, Pitt and Navy are all having bad years. They travel to Evanston, and no one has ever struggled there. Then they have Syracuse at home, and USC at the Coliseum. They will be an S&P+ and Vegas favorite in all of their remaining games, and by double digits in most.

Next week: at Virginia Tech, 8:00 p.m., ABC (ND -6)

Western Michigan (2-2, 0-0 MAC)

Last week: Won at Georgia State, 34-15; beat Miami (NTM) 40-39

Recap: Maybe Western Michigan is good? After all, they’ve won two straight games, and they have increased their S&P+ ranking from #117 immediately after the Michigan game to #82 now.

(Western Michigan is not good).

Next week: vs. Eastern Michigan, noon, ESPN+ (WMU -4)

SMU (1-3, 1-0 AAC)

Last week: Beat Navy, 31-30; Beat Houston Baptist 63-27

Recap: Maybe SMU? After all, they’ve won two straight games, and they have increased their S&P+ ranking from #117 immediately after the Michigan game to #99 now.

(SMU is not good. SMU is even less good than Western Michigan.)

Kudos to SMU for the guts to go for two in overtime against Navy, though, and for pulling off a really cool play. They motioned around to get the left tackle eligible, and hit the throw even though the linebacker was in position to defend it.

Next week: @ UCF, 7:00 p.m., ESPNU

Nebraska (0-4, 0-2 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Michigan by many; Lost to Purdue 42-28

Recap: Watching Nebraska this year is like listening to a Jazz trumpet player doing a bad solo at the end of a set. Like, you nod your head along and try to make sense of the music, and a couple of times you say to yourself “okay, okay, I see where he’s going with this...” But he never quite GETS there. So you’re closing your eyes and half nodding and half shaking your head until it seems like you’re moving your face in a circle, and you come to the point when you realize, buddy, you need to stop.

There are moments when you can see what Nebraska is going to look like in a year or two or five. But everything just looks so hard right now. They’ve lost the turnover battle every week, and partially as a result of that they’re getting constantly throttled in the field position game. Defensively, they remain a mess. Just a hot, undisciplined mess.

Bill C gives them a 2% chance of getting to six wins, so that ain’t happening. They are only favored in two remaining games: the 10/27 matchup with Bethune-Cookman (YTBC) and the 11/10 game against Illinois. In other words, it is realistic that Scott Frost might not get his first FBS win until Veterans’ Day weekend.

And as for the future…

The top 8 commits from 2017 class for the #Huskers:
Tyjon Lindsey (gone)
Avery Roberts (gone)
Elijah Blades (never made it)
Tristan Gebbia (gone)
Jaevon McQuitty (fighting injuries)
Keyshawn Jr (gone)
Brenden Jaimes (starter)
Deiontae Watts (never made it)

— Greg Smith (@GregSmithHV) October 3, 2018

…this build might take a while.

Next week: at Wisconsin, 7:30 p.m., BTN (Nebraska +21)