Okay Fine It's A Baseball Preview: CWS Finale
/the final countdown
you know you can embed things, right?
Oh fine
Yeahhhhh buddy.
I shall put on my Detroit Bad Boys gear posthaste.
THE ESSENTIALS
| WHAT | Michigan (50-21) vs #2 Vanderbilt (52-12) |
|---|---|
| WHERE | Fuegobox Field Omaha, Nebraska |
| WHEN | 7 PM Eastern |
| LINE | Michigan +180 |
| TV | ESPN |
ABOUT LAST NIGHT
Erik Bakich decided to go off-script, starting freshman Isaiah Paige and relying on a boatload of pitchers who hadn't seen the field in the College World series. Paige managed to scrape by in four scoreless innings, but the walls caved in a bit when he left.
It probably wouldn't have mattered. Bakich made some decisions that seem bizarre at first glance—he intentionally walked the bases loaded—but make a modicum of sense if you're already down 1-0 and believe that you aren't going to score 3 runs against Rocker. And Michigan did indeed scuffle to just one run despite a couple of Vandy errors. Bakich's high variance strategy paid off until Jack Weisenberger threw wild pitches at consecutive batters.
The good news is that Michigan didn't waste Criswell going up against this guy…
Rocker is 10-1 in his past 11 starts, and he is 4-0 in the NCAA tournament, with a 0.96 ERA, 44 strikeouts and five walks in 28 innings.
…and has him available tonight. Meanwhile Rocker did exit in the seventh and Michigan put 40 pitches on closer Tyler Brown.
[After THE JUMP: Vandy's third starter is also okay]
PITCHING MATCHUP
Vandy being Vandy their third starter is also a dude. Sophomore Mason Hickman has an ERA of 2.08, 119 strikeouts in 90.2 innings, and a WHIP of just under one. He hasn't given up more than 2 earned runs since early March. The high-level scouting:
Mason Hickman exits after 6 innings of two-hit, shutout ball for @VandyBoys. Just typical Hickman: not sexy stuff, but he knows how to use it. That 88-90 fastball plays up because of its high spin rate and extension in his delivery. Another great outing in a great year for him.
— Aaron Fitt (@aaronfitt) June 22, 2019
Hickman has had some issues with control. While this hasn't resulted in a lot of walks (just 25, gross) he does tend to exit games early. He's gotten through six innings in just three of his last eight starts.
Vandy being Vandy, their bullpen doesn't get wacky once you get past their closer. Jake Eder has a WHIP of 1.13 in 36 innings and change; Ethan Smith is at 1.03. Even if Brown is on the shelf or limited to an inning Vandy will put out some guys they can have confidence in. Probably: Vandy's bullpen ERA since the start of the super-regional has been over 6.
Michigan gets Karl Kauffman (2.75 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) back after his Friday start against Texas Tech. This is slightly short rest:
“That’s been the plan all along,” Bakich said. “He’s starting on Friday against Texas Tech, and if it went to Wednesday, he was going to be ready to go. The one thing about Karl, he’s older, he's mature, he knows how to take care of his body, so he has done the things he needs to do from a workout standpoint and a recovery standpoint to get his body and himself ready to go on four days’ rest and pitch on the fifth day.”
With Kauffmann starting on short rest, pitching in his third College World Series game in 11 days, don’t expect him to go long — five, six innings if he can keep his pitch count low.
Kauffman exited shortly after he hit 100 pitches in both Texas Tech outings, and was noticeably less accurate as the second one dragged on.
Michigan did not have a reason to deploy Jeff Criswell (2.58 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) last night and should have him at or close to fully strength. He threw 9 pitches to close out Michigan's win Monday and had ~36 pitch outings in both Texas Tech games. Criswell spent the season as a starter and can be expected to finish the game whenever Kauffman gives way. Michigan's bullpen can get hairy in a hurry, as last night's game demonstrated.
LINEUP BITS
Michigan will not have leadoff hitter Jordan Nwogu after he did something bad to his quad trying to get to first base last night. Bakich appears set to replace him with Riley Bertram, a switch-hitting freshman with 10 hits in 25 plate appearances. Bertram replaced SS Jack Blomgren during the regional and played well.
Otherwise both teams are unlikely to make any lineup changes.
YOUR BUTTS
Hold onto them. We, the dedicated long-time Michigan baseball fans, have been waiting for this moment for upwards of three weeks.
I think there was a throwaway comment during the broadcast that Bakich was the lead recruiter for David Price, and that was the player that turned Vandy into a powerhouse.
Little more to it than that:
Just a year after they met at Clemson, Corbin was offered the head coaching job at Vanderbilt. When it came time to assemble a coaching staff of his own, the decision to hire Bakich was a no-brainer.
“Vanderbilt was not an attractive school to come to,” said Corbin. “There were not a lot of people going after the Vanderbilt position when I did. It was not a school that people saw as a desirable situation.”
Years later, it may be the most desirable position in college baseball. However, the man who holds that title–Tim Corbin–credits his partner for flipping the script.
“Vanderbilt’s not Vanderbilt without Erik Bakich…He built a recruiting base that still stands today. The David Prices, the Pedro Alvarez’s, The Dominic de la Osas, the David Macias’s. Those are because of him."
Fire Bakich!
Northern teams have a lot of talent, just as much as most southern schools (at the top off their roster) but where the southern schools have an advantage is depth. UM has 2 second rounders and a third rounder, as well as a trio of Sophmores that should go just as high next year. Depth is always going to be hard to come by up north in baseball because of the 11 scholarship limit and weather. Teams like Louisville can come up north and poach guys for a little less money because they won't have to play in the cold the first 2 months of each season. Southern schools also have the gigantic advantage of practicing outside year-around. Say UM offers a kid a 30% ride, most southern schools can ,match that with a pwo offer since UM is pretty expensive and they can say "If you play down here it will be 70 on opening day, not snowing" That allows southern schools to build depth without using a scholarship then they can afford to give a guy like Rocker a full ride to entice him away from the draft. It is an uphil battle for northern schools.
Bakich has attacked this in a smart way using the needs based money UM has access to. That allows him to recruit guys that couldn't play in college otherwise. I don't really know he does this for a fact but it seems that was what they were saying during one of the broadcasts.
Also, Bakich has recruited pitching well and that will always be the great equalizer in baseball, especially in tourneys.
J.J. Bleday. That is the baseballiest name ever and he lived up to it with monster numbers and a top 5 pick.
Will today be a Bleday or a Blue Day?
IMO the reason Michigan matches up so well with everyone is because, outside of Vandy, we may have the best group of top 3 pitchers in college baseball. And Michigan has been riding them HARD. 2 of our guys are high-round draft picks and the 3rd will likely be one too.
Good pitching is a massive equalizer in baseball.
GO BLUE!!!!
Bakich made some decisions that seem bizarre at first glance—he intentionally walked the bases loaded
That's not unusual strategy. It gives you a force at every base. You're probably in better shape with the bases loaded than with runners on 2nd and 3rd.
The second IBB only happened because the wild pitch moved the runners up. Everything about the moves was totally conventional.
When you don't expect to score more than 2 runs, you have to roll the dice with loading the bases and hope for the best. Bakich knows his baseball and his team really well. I think the Bakich boys bounce back. Last night those pitchers took one for the team and will be rewarded for their sacrifice. Go Blue !!!
LFGB
CANNOT continue to strand runners and expcect to win
I'm generally in favor of the use of the pitching rotation in this series.
It is difficult seeing Vandy stacked with both starters and relievers, but this is big boy college baseball. Michigan has scraped into this with timely hitting and three top-line starters and basically nothing else. Remember, we aren't even supposed to be here, but here we are with Kaufman and Criswell ready to go.
I do have a question for baseball knowledge types: Henry went the distance Monday, and everyone spoke of that being his last appearance, but is there a theoretical possibility that he could give Michigan an inning if we need it tonight? It's the last game of the season and the title is on the line.
I think Bakich has what he needs to play the last game straight-up. . . but, things happen. So, while I won't pretend to read his mind, it could happen in scenarios we really don't want to consider, such as an injury.
If Henry is in fact the best option at the time, I think they'd send him out, but there's always a risk his stuff won't be as crisp and he'll get lit up. As I said upthread, though I should state that it is purely my interpretation, but the numbers really do point to short rest being comparable to rushing back from injury and all the risks that entails. I mean, pitchers on short rest don't fare worse for lack of guts or because they're tired (show me an elite athlete who's still tired after 2 full days of R&R).
A theoretical possibility, sure. If this were game 7 of the MLB World Series, anybody breathing would be ready to go.
I don't know how he feels obviously, but I'd bet if you asked Tommy Henry if he can get a guy out tonight if they need him to, he'd probably say hell yes. If it's tight and Criswell/Kauffmann are toast and they need an out or two to win a National Championship, I could see it.
Is it possible? Yes. But it wouldn't be likely to happen unless Criswell suffered an injury. A rested Kaufman/Criswell combo is what Bakich is going with tonight. I suspect Kaufman for 6, Criswell for 3.
Yes, sir. He had a very efficient 110 pitch outing in game 1. With 48 hours of recovery and a productive warm-up session today, he could definitely pitch an inning or two without huge physical risks. Can he be sharp ? Definitely his arm is young enough to handle it if his mind is right.
A lot would depend on Henry's routine. During the season he is used to pitching every 7 days. So, he probably doesn't throw a bullpen until day 4'ish. If he threw today you would basically hope for him to throw a pen in the game with very little warm-up. Henry could do it most likely, but it would most likely not be his best stuff and UM would probably be better off throwing a guy on his normal routine like Keizer.
There's the other side too where Bakich might not even ask him. Henry has thrown a lot of innings at this point and coming back on 48 hours is a recipe for an arm injury. The reality is Henry has a career to worry about at this point and sometimes a coach has to step in and save a player from themselves.
Pitching is a weird area in sports where coaches are making decision on health without the input of trainers. It isn't like an injury where a guy is cleared or not. You are relying on a pitcher's word on if they can go or not and there's no chance a competitor like Henry is going to tell you he's hurting. The kid wanted to pitch laying in a hospital bed.
I figured out Bakich's strategy as soon as I saw the Freshman on the mound yesterday. If for some reason we got the lead in the late innings, we had Criswell to come on and finish. The more likely situation is we struggle to do anything against their stud, so we save our two dudes to be all-in on Wednesday.
It's not an ideal situation, but they are the best team at the World Series and we are a last-four-in team. We have to roll the dice. It is like holding with a 12 in Blackjack when the dealer has a 6 showing. It's not the way you'd like it, but it is the best play you have.
And... https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=6&v=4An1BrG2u_4
Yep. Remember, Vandy was 30-2 over their past 32 games before we beat them on Monday. This team is a MONSTER. I want us to win badly, but there will be no shame if they can't pull it off. On paper, this Vandy team is just dominant.
Hey, you didn't tell us who Kenpom favored??? How am I to place a bet now?
Vandy is a heavy Vegas favorite. They are -200 ($200 bet wins you $100) while Michigan is +170 ($100 bet wins you $170)
There isn't a point spread in baseball.
https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaa-baseball/college-world-series-bettin…
Exciting stuff, and as a UM baseball fan going on three weeks, I never doubted any decision made by a coach.
Also, it's very on brand that the one "smart" school from the SEC bends the rules in baseball as much as their football teams. I saw a post about how Vandy gets around scholarship limits and it's a bit annoying.
Everyone is available tonight, even Tommy Henry can mow down a couple of innings if needed.
But we have to be way sharper in the field tonight - no errors. Plus need a few timely hits and beat these guys like 3-2. Can you imagine Michigan baseball as the college world champs ... wow.
Go Blue !!!
This is were it would have been nice to have a one game winner take all for the national title. Any team can get hot for one game, but over the course of even a shorter series depth and the better bullpen will most likely win out.
Come on, High Road Ty, don't go glass-half-empty on us now.
Think of it this way: When we win tonight, you can thank your lucky maize and blue stars that this wasn't a 7-game series.
Uhm....you want a one game take-all when they have Kumar Rocker?
GoBlue!
Let the hits keep coming!
Got to play better defense today
"We, the dedicated long-time Michigan baseball fans, have been waiting for this moment for upwards of 36 years."
Seems like Bakich has put them in as good a position to win as possible given the pitching depth he has to work with, i'm certainly not going to second-guess his strategy.
In hindsight, the only thing I can see him doing differently would be to leave Paige in for another 2 innings. It didn't seem like he needed to be pulled when he did, with one unearned run and a lead-off single.
If Paige produced couple more stable innings and he went straight to Cleveland, that's a 2-1 game in the 7th.
Honestly like this is why I love Brian (as a Vanderbilt/Michigan fan). Not many of Vandy's fans could have named a single player until about 2004. Hopefully (after losing tonight) Michigan leverages this tournament run to years of success and baseball becomes part of MGB's front page fare.
Fielding Yost : Dan McGugin :: Tim Corbin : Erik Bakich
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