[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Michigan 87, Wisconsin 79 Comment Count

Alex.Drain February 26th, 2023 at 6:41 PM

Michigan's season was hanging in the balance. There were under three seconds remaining and Wisconsin, who had owned the preceding thirty seconds, led 68-65. Michigan was in-bounding from the baseline under Wisconsin's basket following a swatted three pointer, with no timeouts to draw anything up. Terrance Williams II struggled to find an open outlet, instead leaping to hurl a ball that only 7'1" Hunter Dickinson could snatch out on the perimeter. Dickinson barely snared possession over the contest from a Badger, dribbled it once, turned his body towards the basket, and hurled a shot around a potential block from Wisconsin's Max Klesmit. 12,707 fans inside Crisler Center in Ann Arbor stood on their feet as the desperate prayer arced in the air on a rainbow trajectory. A Michigan win, only possible in OT if the shot went down, would keep Michigan's NCAA Tournament hopes alive one more week. Miss that shot and those tournament hopes would likely be buried ten feet under. 

The ball hurtled towards the basket. The horn signifying the expiration of regulation time blared and the backboard lit up in red. And then in the blink of an eye, a collective prayer answered from the Wolverine faithful, Dickinson's heave swished through the hoop. Crisler Center exploded into utter pandemonium, though the game wasn't over. Michigan had tied it, and overtime would be needed. After a seesaw first three minutes of overtime, Michigan put the clamps on Wisconsin defensively and hit shots with ruthless efficiency, building a lead and salting the game away at the free throw line. When it was all said and done, Dickinson's shot for the ages had saved Michigan's season, or at least let it live another week. The Wolverines won a must-win game over Wisconsin 87-79, moved into a tie for 2nd in the conference, and inched slightly closer to the NCAA Tournament picture. It's not quite March, but the madness is well underway. 

-----

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

The first half of the game did not adequately foreshadow what was to follow. Wisconsin started hot, scoring 17 points in the first 7.5 minutes of action as the Wolverines got off to their second consecutive sleepy start. The offensive rebounding issues that did Michigan in against Wisconsin in Madison a couple weeks back reared their head early on, as the Badgers extended possessions and did damage. Around the halfway mark, trailing at one point 17-9, the Maize & Blue picked it up. They went on a 26-10 run to close and the central story was Hunter Dickinson, who had one of his best halves of basketball all season. He engineered a personal 6-0 run at one point to give Michigan the lead and scored 12 points in the first half, 5/7 from the floor, four rebounds, two assists (one of which a beautiful pass to set up a Dug McDaniel three), and just one turnover. 

The dominance of Dickinson was much needed for the Wolverines, who were missing Jett Howard yet again, his second consecutive missed game and third consequential one of the season. They also started Will Tschetter at the four again, though Terrance Williams II came off the bench and logged more minutes than Tschetter. Kobe Bufkin was the other strong performer in the first half, with 10 points of his own to boost Michigan into the break with a 35-27 lead. They'd held Wisconsin to just 10 points over the final 12.5 minutes of play, including a nearly nine minute stretch where the Badgers made one bucket(!) and were clearly the stronger team in the opening twenty. 

Unfortunately, much of the recipe that led to the dominance of Michigan in the first half went off the rails for a large stretch of the second half. Wisconsin was able to take Dickinson out of the picture for the majority of the half, holding him to just two points over the first 17.5 minutes of play, forcing the Wolverines to lean even more heavily on Bufkin. Which, to Bufkin's credit, resulted in #2 rising to the occasion and playing one of the best halves of his Michigan career. But it wasn't enough to put Wisconsin away, with turnovers bogging down the offense outside of Bufkin, and the Badgers clawed their way back thanks to the efforts of Connor Essegian. The freshman was unconscious in the second half, 16 points on 7/11 from the floor, a childhood Wolverines fan playing in Crisler Center for he first time. Essgian was out for blood and Steven Crowl's layup with 7:30 left gave Wisconsin their first lead since midway through the first half, 53-52. 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

From that point forward it was an entertaining, back and forth affair. Bufkin made a driving layup and swished a three to put Michigan up 57-55, but Wisconsin had an answer every time. Tarris Reed had free throws coming but a shoulder injury on the play forced Joey Baker to shoot them, a tradeoff Michigan was very content with. Baker made them both to put Michigan ahead 59-57, but Essegian tied it only a couple possessions later, leaving the score tied with 3:15 left. Wisconsin took the lead on a Klesmit driving layup before Hunter Dickinson finally got himself back in rhythm with a hook shot to even it up at 61 all. Wisconsin was out of answers on their next offensive possession when Klesmit heaved up a three at the shot clock expiration and it banked in off the backboard while the Crisler faithful all looked skyward in disbelief. 

Michigan kept plugging away, eventually getting Dickinson to the line where he made both free throws to trim the lead to 64-63 with 1:19 remaining. Reed's good defense on a Tyler Wahl drive to the rack gave Michigan possession with a chance to take the lead and a perfect baseline jumper by Bufkin gave them that lead, 65-64 with only 30.3 remaining. A perfect floater from Essegian gave Wisconsin the lead and Bufkin's layup attempt was blocked (there was some debate if a foul should've been called) by Klesmit, rebounded down and Kamari McGee was fouled. McGee made them both to put Wisconsin ahead by three, 68-65. Michigan, now out of timeouts, came up the floor and found Bufkin in the corner. He was open at first, but Klesmit closed out in excellent fashion and swatted the ball out of bounds. That's when the story of the game begins to intersect with the moment discussed in the opening, with Dickinson's miracle shot at the horn being the next play sequentially. 

With the game now tied and headed to OT at 68-68, momentum was squarely on Michigan's side. Crisler Center was bubbling with an energy seldom seen this season, but Wisconsin wasn't quite ready to go away. They got the opening points of the OT session and it remained a back-and-forth contest. Every score by one team was answered by the other, a Joey Baker three being followed by a Klesmit three, which in turn was followed by a Bufkin converted and-one. The score sat 76-75 with 2:14 to go and it seemed as if we were headed for another high pressure sequence, but that's when Michigan decided the game was over. 

Wisconsin missed a three, Michigan rebounded it down, came up the floor, and fed Dickinson. HD's hook went down to make it 78-75, forcing Greg Gard to call timeout. An out-of-rhythm Wisconsin possession ended with an off-balance Essegian three that glanced off the iron and Michigan followed it up with a Dug McDaniel floater, giving Michigan the first two possession lead of OT for either team. Wisconsin would end up getting two three point attempts on the next possession, enabled by an OREB, but neither went down and you could see the energy draining from the Badger bench. Michigan snared the rebound after the second miss and Dug McDaniel was fouled with 39.2 left. He made them both, putting the lead at 82-75, and once Wisconsin turned it over on their next possession, that was game. The Wolverines had survived and the trajectory of their season was altered too. 

----

[Marc Gregor Campredon]

The final box score indicates a game that was a pure coinflip, one that Michigan was able to win. The Wolverines shot 49% from the floor compared to 43% from Wisconsin, while the teams were close to even from three (Wisconsin 8/23, Michigan 7/21). Both teams were highly efficient on their free throws but Michigan made 22 to Wisconsin's 11, obviously exacerbated by score effects in overtime. Michigan committed twelve turnovers to Wisconsin's eight, which was a factor in the second half, while offensive rebounds were close to even. Michigan fixed the DREB problem compared to the first five minutes, but nine allowed to a dreadful OREB team in Wisconsin was still probably more than Juwan Howard would've liked. 

The heroes for Michigan were pretty obvious, the three player trio of Dickinson, Bufkin, and McDaniel. Dickinson has the defining moment of the game and he was sharp with 23 points, but most of his damage was in the first half. The MVP for Michigan was no doubt Bufkin, whose 28 points on 10/21 from the floor was vital to victory. He took the offense by the horns in the second half, the go-to guy without question and also added eight boards while logging an exhausting 42 minutes. As for McDaniel, he didn't have a major on-ball passing role (zero assists!), but Dug shot 2/4 from three and was an acceptable 4/8 from two. Michigan didn't get a ton outside of these three but a couple triples from Baker and strong defense around the rim from Reed deserve mention. 

As for Wisconsin, they used the tandem of Essegian and Klesmit to power their offense. Essegian finished with 24 points on 10/21 from the floor, while Klesmit added 19 of his own and had several massive blocks late. Those two were the likely heroes had Dickinson's three not gone down and Wisconsin had emerged as the victors. Chucky Hepburn added only four points for Wisconsin, leaving the game in the second half with an injury. 

Michigan is now 17-12 on the season and 11-7 in the B1G. That conference mark pulls them into a tie for second place with Maryland, Indiana, and Northwestern, two games back of first place Purdue. If the Big Ten Tournament started today, Michigan would be the 3rd seed, owning the second best-record (3-2) against the other tied teams in that quartet (Maryland would be 2nd with a 3-1 in-group record). Michigan finishes up the regular season this week with two road games, against Illinois on Thursday night and Indiana on Sunday afternoon. One win in those two games is likely needed to shore up Michigan's bubble position going into the BTT, as well as to give the Maize & Blue a top four seed in the BTT and thus the vaunted double bye. That Thursday game is scheduled for 7:00 PM EST and will be broadcast on ESPN. 

[Click the JUMP for the box score]

Comments

Preacher Mike

February 26th, 2023 at 7:25 PM ^

If you look at the numbers of last year’s team to this, they are remarkably similar. Almost identical in several key stats. BUT as of late this team is pulling ahead of last year’s team statistically. This team is, I think, undeniably more talented than last year’s squad. The key difference is experience overall and depth at point guard. However, Bufkin is eclipsing Eli Brooks now, Jett is much better than Houston, and Dug is a waay better shooter than Frankie. If the guards continue to improve or even just play at the same level they have the last few games, and the team overall locks in on defense down the stretch, this team could make the second weekend of the tourney. 

Blue In NC

February 26th, 2023 at 8:16 PM ^

"This team is, I think, undeniably more talented than last year’s squad."

Sorry, I don't agree with that.  I think it's just that last year's team had much higher expectations and also played a more difficult schedule as the B1G was much stronger.  Hunter is playing worse than last year (although better lately), Jett may be slightly better than Houstan but it's close, I will agree that Dug is likely better than last year's PG combo (but we have less depth), Bufkin is obviously much better but we have no Moussa this year.  And last year's team definitely had more talent (although they did not play to their potential).  I do think this year's team has a better chemistry.

jmblue

February 26th, 2023 at 8:37 PM ^

The team overall?  Not sure.  Houstan/Diabate/Dickinson/Brooks/Jones was a pretty good starting 5 and we had Bufkin, Collins, Williams and Johns coming off the bench.  This year's team doesn't have a clearcut starter at the 4 spot and the bench is thinner.

But this year's version of Bufkin is an elite player, and Reed has emerged as an impact defender, which we didn't have last year.  Sometimes you just need a couple of guys to step up to make all the difference.

Michigan4Life

February 26th, 2023 at 11:10 PM ^

They are not better than last year's team. Last year team was 27th in KenPom while this year is 41st in KenPom. 

Aside from the hot start, Jett's stats is pretty close to identical to Houstan's stats in advanced stats but we know that Jett's a better shotmaker. 

DaVante Jones has played at a high level at this time of the year last season and has led Michigan to a couple of key wins like the OSU game. Dug has played well this month but DaVante has been the better PG. 

Also, Diabate >>>> T-Will at PF. Hunter last year > Hunter this year. 

alum96

February 26th, 2023 at 7:29 PM ^

Essegian will be a 4 year player and a nightmare in future years.  Meanwhile Kobe with similar stat line will be a 1st round pick next draft.  The annoying part.

Ham

February 26th, 2023 at 7:33 PM ^

Does Michigan really want a double bye? I mean, if they get it from going 2-0 to end the regular season, then whatever. But if they go 1-1 and need a win in the BTT to go dancing, then wouldn’t they be better served being the 5 seed than the 4 seed? If Michigan still needs a W, I would much rather them play their first game against a team like Nebraska or Rutgers than a team like Maryland or Iowa.

aiglick

February 26th, 2023 at 7:40 PM ^

They need to win a game in the BTT but preferably it would be a quad 1 game. Right now we have 3 with a couple of potential others that could turn into one and games left on the table. They just need to take it one game at a time though yeah at least a split here would do wonders.

The Deer Hunter

February 26th, 2023 at 7:52 PM ^

It's a complicated question. 

  • If we go 0-2 we won't get a double bye. We're toast without winning the BTT
  • If we go 1-1 we might get a double bye... At that point I would prefer the five seed playing the 12 vs 13 winner in the BTT and that get us to potentially 19 wins and we're in. 
  • If we go 2-0 then hell yes! We're in regardless and could potentially improve our seeding. 

Not a guarantee, but just how I see it. 

aMAIZEinBLUEinTX

February 26th, 2023 at 7:58 PM ^

A 5-seed would most likely draw Nebraska or Wisconsin in the 2nd-round - a game that cannot help the bubble situation but could very well be a dagger if upset (and the opponent would have the benefit of 1 game prior, which has consistently hurt teams with bye rest in prior B1G tourneys with much greater regularity for the underdog than statistically probable). A 4 vs 5 matchup is a guaranteed Quad 1 matchup in Fridays quarterfinal, 1 closer to the autobid. Give me a pass to the quarters before a no-win trap game all day.

The Deer Hunter

February 26th, 2023 at 9:11 PM ^

I get where your going here, but outside of Minnesota there is no "bottom feeder scalp" in the B1G and it's quite possible the 5 seed matchup will be against another possible bubble team. 

Check NET, Torvick, Kenpom etc. First round might not be a Q1 win but may offset that CMU loss with the opportunity of Q1 win the next round. 

PeteM

February 26th, 2023 at 7:55 PM ^

To me Bufkin was clearly fouled on the shot with 20ish seconds left, but I was at the game so didn't have the benefit of replay. Is it a closer call on video?

907_UM Nanook

February 26th, 2023 at 8:51 PM ^

https://youtu.be/gZ6R6jeFOVk?t=1239

Go to the little settings "wheel" symbol & turn playback speed down to 0.5. You can see Kobe's head bounce back.

Typically refs protect shooters, that's one of the fundamentals we talk about pregame. Especially when you're airborne ahead of the primary defender, and said defender comes from behind swinging an arm radically. Got to get those calls. But refs are humans & it's just unfortunate that it happened to us down the stretch. Dailey is in perfect position to see the foul. He just passed on it.

bronxblue

February 26th, 2023 at 8:52 PM ^

Here's a link to the moment (and the replay afterwards).  

He hit a lot of hair but it's hard to tell if he hit the firm head of Bufkin, but at the same time I'm of the belief that if you hit his hair hard enough his head goes back it's a foul.  This game was weird in that they didn't call a ton of fouls for stretches (and allowed some physical play on both sides based on my rewatch), they also seemed to have spurts where everything was a foul and it tilted a bit more toward Wisconsin than you'd think.  It wound up not mattering but I can't shake this feeling that Wisconsin doesn't get called for a lot of rough play for reasons that don't make a ton of sense, and that was the type of play where you get a home whistle especially given the contact. 

XM - Mt 1822

February 26th, 2023 at 10:01 PM ^

thanks to you and 907 nanook for the link. i think i'll stay with 'hair swipe not a head swipe'.  in the crunch of the moment i'm okay with them not calling that.  they might have called a body foul or other stuff, but the hair stuff is a 'no call' IMO. 

and i appreciate your take on other officiating tilted toward wisconsin

bronxblue

February 26th, 2023 at 8:38 PM ^

I wound up following basically the entire game on my phone due to family commitments, and so only heard about the Dickinson three to tie as we were pulling in.  OT was scary but also just so reaffirming to how much this team has grown over the year.  This doesn't feel like last year's team; we talk about them "coming together" in the second half of the year but they basically alternated wins and losses for the month before the tourney (7-6) but had the big wins against Purdue and Iowa.  This year's team is 6-2 since February hit and have been dealing with injuries to key players for a lot of that stretch.  It's really impressive and a clear example of a team coming together and getting better.

If they go 1-1 to end the year I don't see a reason why they aren't in; they'd be 12-8 in one of the best conferences in the country and, more importantly, would be tied or ahead of a bunch of other teams in the league expected to make the tourney (Illinois or IU would have the same conference record and I think Rutgers or NW would be a game behind, plus whatever happens with MSU since they had to miss the Minnesota game).    

gary3

February 26th, 2023 at 8:39 PM ^

The ball hurtled towards the basket. The horn signifying the expiration of regulation time blared and the backboard lit up in red. And then in the blink of an eye, a collective prayer answered from the Wolverine faithful, Dickinson's heave swished through the hoop.

Some of Alex's best writing yet

bronxblue

February 26th, 2023 at 8:58 PM ^

Doesn't look like it, but neither did most of the conference (only Wisconsin and Minnesota are listed as offers).  He's a solid player but he's also had his two highest-scoring games (and the only times he's cracked 20 points) against Michigan, so this might also be a case of just getting a guy's best shot.

smwilliams

February 26th, 2023 at 8:51 PM ^

Great win and a hell of shot by Dickinson. It’s been a weird season and this is a weird team. I still don’t know if Juwan is a good coach, but he isn’t a bad one. Kobe and Hunter are the unquestioned stars of this team and Dug is getting better every game. Tarris is definitely a freshman, but the tools are there and he can have a positive impact. 

The other guys? Jett is an enigma. He’s a talented scorer, but they’ve played better without him for stretches and he doesn’t bring much else. Jace is fine as like an 8th or 9th guy. Tschetter? Woof. I can’t think of a single thing he does well. Baker reminds me a lot of Houstan from last year. If his shot is going, he’s dangerous. If it’s not, he’s a negative. T-Will does a lot of the little things well and a lot of bad things and his shot has completely deserted him. 
 

In an ideal world, they would have found a starting 4 in the portal instead of Baker, the Princeton dude as a 1/2 off the bench, Jace as a wing defender, T-Will as a 3/4, and Tarris spelling Hunter here and there. 
 

Win one of the next two and a game in the BTT and they’re probably in - maybe Dayton. 

 

The Deer Hunter

February 26th, 2023 at 9:42 PM ^

This is the correct answer and this is not on TT. This will be THE story going into Thursday's game. You simply can't keep a guy on scholarship if it's blocking another player who wants to replace someone who has already said he's not coming back. Blaming TT is just stupid, We would all be livid if Michigan did this as well. This is on the outdated transfer admissions policy period. Other schools find a way, we don't know how.  

Shannon didn't want to lose 18 months of credits and I don't blame him, however, he is culpable as well. Shannon made a lot of money in NIL @TT and could have easily paid for these summer classes if he was all in on Michigan. Shannon took the easy way out by going to a school that doesn't have a ridiculous transfer admission policy. 

 

snarling wolverine

February 26th, 2023 at 10:51 PM ^

You simply can't keep a guy on scholarship if it's blocking another player who wants to replace someone who has already said he's not coming back. 

Pretty sure that during the summer you can be oversigned.  You only have to get down to the limit when the school year starts.  Keeping him on scholarship for those couple of classes wouldn't have inconvenienced them.  They just wanted to be assholes.

HarBooYa

February 27th, 2023 at 10:11 AM ^

Great (and somewhat lucky) win.  Could be giant turning point for us.

It's an aside, but all I could think of while the Essegian's boyhood fandom of Michigan tape rolled and he kept pouring it in on us was, transfer portal.  Was like watching Hunter play against Maryland.  Kid would be a great upgrade to our roster.  

 

 

Germany_Schulz

February 27th, 2023 at 10:39 AM ^

Amazing game to win. 
Maybe it is just me. 

It "feels" like UM rarely wins (or ties) on "last play" type games so, when they happen, they "feel" more special.  

It is great to see Juwan defy the hater-tot and hater-ade consuming folks and find ways to win down the stretch.  Let's win the BTT and go DANCING. 

Shock the WORLD. 

Go Blue. 

jp33

February 27th, 2023 at 11:13 AM ^

Does anyone else think the ball moves better when Jace is not in the lineup?  Don't get me wrong, I think they need Jace to reach their full potential.  I just think I would love to see Jace let the game come to him more.  He is one of the greatest talents to play here in recent memory defend defend defend and the points will come