MGoPodcast 15.14: What's Distance Got To Do With It?
1 hour and 34 minutes
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1. College Football Playoff Discussion
Starts at 1:00
The College Football Playoff committee putting in Alabama over Florida State is just awful. This isn't a Michigan thing, it's a college football thing. They're a 13-0 ACC champion team. Florida State did everything they could. This Alabama team has been erratic all season. Their defensive tackles are just guys but they have an outstanding secondary and two really good edge rushers. Michigan probably has an advantage in both trenches. It feels like Michigan should win this game. There's no clear monster in the playoffs (besides maybe Michigan?).
[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]
2. Offense vs Iowa
Starts at 25:15
This wasn't nearly as bad as it felt when you rewatch it. Trente Jones keeps picking up the stupidest holding calls. Colston Loveland dropped some passes he never drops. They played very conservatively because once you go up by 10 points in this game it doesn't matter. JJ only goes 22/30 for 147 yards, if his tight ends don't drop some we're playing the incompletion game again. Michigan did some simple trick stuff but it's not the kind of thing that can fool Iowa, they're a very sound defense. They need to do some soul searching with Donovan Edwards before playing Alabama. Instead of "JJ's incompletions" we play "JJ's sacks".
3. Hot Takes, Defense vs Iowa
Starts at 52:40
Takes hotter than every single Florida State fan until the end of all time. Brian should've just put "no" as the preview. Was it a fumble or an incomplete pass? Let's talk about how good of a human Mike Sainristil is (he's going to be president one day). Who's on the Mount Rushmore of these past three seasons? Kenneth Grant continues to consume. There's not much else to say about how Michigan's defense did against Iowa's offense.
4. Game Theory, and Special Teams
Starts at 1:20:45
Michigan normally goes for it on 4th and short but when you can kick a field goal to go up against Iowa, you just go for it. How is Iowa so bad at QB sneak? Semaj Morgan did a thing, the guy who tackled him might be the most athletic person on the field, though. Jake Thaw was the "just field this punt" guy. How does James Turner compare to Jake Moody?
MUSIC:
- “War Pigs”— Black Sabbath
- “Going Down South”— RL Burnside
- “Dyslexic Heart”— Paul Westerberg
- “Across 110th Street”
THE USUAL LINKS:
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"They're better at being Iowa than Iowa."
December 4th, 2023 at 7:05 AM ^
FSU: Shades of Michigan and Dennis Franklin circa 1973.
December 4th, 2023 at 10:17 AM ^
Totally. Yet ... this go'round is in stark contrast to the 2014 CFP-winning OSU team's QB2 JT Barrett breaking his leg in the Michigan game, putting QB3 Cardale Jones into the B1GCG FTW vs. Wisconsin. It seems FSU didn't beat Louisville by enough? How much would have been enough...60 pts?
Not to mention OSU had one loss, at home, to a pathetic 7-6 VaTech team.
December 4th, 2023 at 10:42 AM ^
The committee was supposed to avoid the whole beauty pageant thing and they went right back to it because Bama was the one on the block.
Even these caddy men are addicted to the drama.
Get rid of rankings. Best record in Power Five followed by opponent win pct. NFL style. You win and get in or you don't. No more judges, period.
By the way, they just killed the ACC. Clemson and FSU and Miami (who is only a relic anyways) are done with that conference after yesterday. They scheduled and blew out an SEC powerhouse and went undefeated and still didn't get a shot over an SEC team who already lost.
December 4th, 2023 at 12:36 PM ^
Certainly adds fuel to FSU and Clemson's fires, doesn't it.
And Michigan is still salty at the Big Ten.
And the PAC 12 no longer exists.
And Notre Dame is out there looking to negotiate a new TV contract.
And Jim finished his championship podium speech calling for players to be compensated.
2024 is looking like it's going to be a wild, wild ride.
December 5th, 2023 at 5:20 PM ^
This difference is nobody was out to screw over FSU. They just wanted Bama money.
Big Ten commissioner Duke highlighted Franklins injury prior to the vote, MSU voted against us.
Where did Bump Elliot weigh in? He was at Iowa at the time.
There was a rule in place to alternate.
December 4th, 2023 at 7:17 AM ^
RL Burnside?! Now we’re talkin’!
December 4th, 2023 at 7:33 AM ^
The situation with Donovan is perplexing. As things stand, Mullings has got to play over Edwards-it is unfair to Kalel and the team not to do so. Kalel runs like am SEC back. It is incumbent upon the coaches to play the best players.
December 4th, 2023 at 10:53 AM ^
Still a great weapon in space, but yeah -- too many (nearly all?) of his carries as RB just feel like lighting downs on fire. For AL, I'd make Corum and Mullings RBs 1 & 2 and use Dono in the slot and for sweeps & screens, etc. I want him on the field, but the "ordinary" carries just haven't been good enough.
plus we need him in there to throw at least once!
December 4th, 2023 at 12:38 PM ^
So long as we're clear that Donovan Edwards is a very talented and hard-working player, and that the sources of the issues with his productivity this year lie mostly with the coaching staff, yeah, I agree--right now it feels like Edwards is not the team's second-best option at RB.
December 4th, 2023 at 7:42 AM ^
The reason I fear Bama is because you know they have the raw talent and I think for as much as I hate Saban, he's the best there is and when you give him a month to prepare he's really hard to beat. Meanwhile, Michigan under Harbaugh is a little like under Bo where everything revolved around OSU and they aren't great adapting for a bowl game.
For whatever reasons our running game has been pretty mediocre this year and I think that limits our explosiveness and overall complexity. Hopefully the coaches can go back in the lab and come up with some things to improve because Alabamas defense is going to be tough.
December 4th, 2023 at 8:40 AM ^
The run game has been mediocre all year because they run the same basic dive play into stacked boxes and never use play action. Also very few deep shots this season to open up the box. Honestly, if JJ wasn't as accurate a passer as he is, I think our offensive numbers this year would be below average. Thank God Sherrone opened up the playbook a bit against OSU. Here's to hoping they find some more creativity against Bama, or honestly, I don't like our chances much!
December 4th, 2023 at 9:36 AM ^
You have to beat the SEC if you want to win the natty. Having said that this is the worst version SEC team they've sent to the playoff in a decade & Michigan's best team since 97 so if not now then when?
If Bama was wearing a different uniform and carried all the same advanced stats/power rankings Michigan would be favored by 5-8 points but because it's Bama and the SEC (rightfully so) it will probably kick-off a pk'em.
I read somewhere that Saban has only been an underdog in 5 games in 14 years and all were to Georgia until this game so obviously 2 were this year. That's impressive but shows that this is not close to Saban's best team.
December 4th, 2023 at 12:44 PM ^
If Bama was wearing a different uniform and carried all the same advanced stats/power rankings Michigan would be favored by 5-8 points but because it's Bama and the SEC (rightfully so) it will probably kick-off a pk'em.
Except it is Alabama, and Nick Saban, and the results speak for themselves. Would anyone say with a straight face they'd prefer to face this University of Tuscaloosa team instead of FSU?
They have an excellent pass rush and an excellent secondary--sounds like Penn State. They have a mobile quarterback and a couple of excellent wide receivers--sounds like prior year Ohio State teams.
Toughest test yet for this Michigan team, no question. It's going to require an A-game from every aspect of the team, particularly coaching. I don't doubt that Michigan has the athletes to compete and win this team. I do have some doubt about the coaching staff's ability to prepare for a bowl game given the track record. We'll see!
December 4th, 2023 at 1:46 PM ^
“I don't doubt that Michigan has the athletes to compete and win this team. I do have some doubt about the coaching staff's ability to prepare for a bowl game given the track record.”
Then you don’t give the coaches enough credit. Frankly Michigan has been nowhere near as successful as schools like Alabama and OSU or even Penn State in recruiting, and yet they have at least been beating the latter 2.
December 5th, 2023 at 9:49 AM ^
From my untrained eye, the TE matchup advantage we have against all of the other teams on our schedule may not be there against Alabama. Turner is a multi-award semi-finalist (Lombardi, Bednarik, Lott), Lawson is a Butkis semi-finalist and Marshall is just "a guy" but a RS Sr who would start on a dozen BIG teams. We have concerns, Dude.
December 4th, 2023 at 10:53 AM ^
Milroes legs worry me a lot too. Saban with a month to prepare is gonna be hard to beat
December 4th, 2023 at 11:18 AM ^
People keep saying Saban is so hard to beat with prep but for the past 2 years when they've had an entire offseason to prepare to play Texas they've been pretty mediocre. They needed Ewers getting hurt and some crazy plays by Young to escape in 2022 and then got beaten pretty handily this season. Yes, they beat KSU badly last postseason but the Saban of old isn't that guy anymore and in a better SEC they'd have lost 2-3 games and been relegated to the Citrus or similar. They're a good team but even Alabama fans wouldn't consider this one of the stronger units.
The running game is sort of what it is at this point but I also suspect they will have some wrinkles against Alabama that'll hopefully spring for some bigger gains.
December 4th, 2023 at 7:56 AM ^
So Alabama is basically southern 5 star Penn State?
December 4th, 2023 at 8:18 AM ^
I think they compare better to Maryland. Mobile but erratic QB is nothing like Allar.
December 4th, 2023 at 8:04 AM ^
I know AL almost lost a lot of games to so-so teams, but they ALWAYS show up when everything is on the line. They won't play soft with the natty on the line. That's why I fear AL.
December 4th, 2023 at 8:12 AM ^
So Michigan is once again going to have to “share” a National Championship.
I get the segment isn’t about 〽️, but the football gods are jackasses.
December 4th, 2023 at 9:17 AM ^
Who are they going to share it with? The fsu team that's going to get trucked by Georgia?
December 4th, 2023 at 9:24 AM ^
Nah, Florida State won't beat Georgia. We won't have to worry about sharing anything.
December 4th, 2023 at 8:13 AM ^
On the JJ sacks/scrambles: it looked to me like his ankle was betraying him. Every first step as he tried to elude the rush was a stumble, his couple of runs to the edge, one designed, he stumbles as soon as he tries to cut. He stumbles himself into at least one of those sacks. His feet were simply not secure; have to assume it’s the injured ankle still not right.
And you also have to assume that will be fully right by the playoff. I expect fully operational JJ juicing the run game & going off-script for passing phenomenally
December 4th, 2023 at 9:47 AM ^
FULLY OPERATIONAL!
December 4th, 2023 at 8:14 AM ^
Bama is Maryland with a better HC and Secondary. Erratic but mobile QB.
December 4th, 2023 at 10:29 AM ^
Bama is top 10 in both SP+ defense and offense. They're much better than Maryland.
December 4th, 2023 at 11:09 AM ^
Yeah, a Maryland comp is just insane. I think the go-to move right now is to try to diminish Alabama because we are not comfortable with what we have seen from Michigan. Alabama is really good and while it is certainly not the best Alabama team I have seen it is going to be a really tough game to win. Yeah, I know... the Auburn game, but that is the South version of Michigan-Ohio State and was all Auburn had to play for so I really don't take a lot of stock in that, and they found a way to win it anyway. However, there are some reasons for optimism -
1. Our defense creates a lot of turnovers and I think we have coverages to confuse Milroe.
2. Auburn ran the ball really well against Alabama without doing much exotic stuff.
3. I really, really like Michigan's special teams. Doman is outstanding and JT is good from basically anywhere past midfield.
Need to win the turnover battle and under no circumstances give Bama any short fields.
December 4th, 2023 at 9:00 AM ^
Michigan can definitely win this game, but the matchup between Henderson and Jones vs Dallas Turner and Justin Eboigbe is a serious concern. Their team's greatest strength against our team's greatest weakness. If the offense can't find a way to mitigate the havoc they cause, it could be a long day. I'm excited to see how it plays out.
December 4th, 2023 at 9:04 AM ^
Agree that FSU got screwed. I'm surprised we aren't hearing more of the Dennis Franklin screw job other than on MGoBlog
Mike Sainristil is a great guy as well as great player. I'd vote for him
How does JT compare to Jake Moody? JT having a better year than Jake did last season.
December 4th, 2023 at 9:19 AM ^
I'm of the opinion the committee forced FSU out because they had the mandate to have at least one SEC school in the playoff. Period. The mandate: accomplish that any way you have to, but make it happen. From there, all the discussions were around how to plausibly justify it.
December 4th, 2023 at 9:20 AM ^
I have updated my 2023 MGoBlog music playlists with the songs from this episode - here are the links:
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Apple Music: https://music.apple.com/us/playlist/2023-mgoblog-music/pl.u-11z0ofMkqvL
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Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/2a7Hw0FHtgqw351LwW8wPz?si=8690043244a24050
Go Blue! 3 TIME B1G CHAMPIONS! #1 BABY! 'NOLES GOT ROBBED!!
December 4th, 2023 at 9:22 AM ^
In a weird mood today, but this stuff has been bothering me for weeks.
Down the stretch, Michigan was "gimpy" but that is a convenient way to avoid some difficult conversations.
A "gimpy" JJ and OL doesn't result in running the ball into the backs of your OL 30 times against PSU for ~3.2 YPC outside of Corum's TD run in the 2nd half. JJ's legs (had two 9 yard runs, one being on a passing play) dragged that number above 3 YPC. That's horrible.
The passing game hasn't looked good overall in 4 weeks. The OSU game JJ had some good throws, but other issues were percolating. WRs not open - the CJ sideline catch saw him run clear across the field and still have to make a catch in a 1 yard box. That throw back across the field diving catch he had was again on a play where no one was open and it was fortunate to even gain 3 yards. They ran into the backs of the OL for little gain over and over again, fortunate to pop a few 4-6 yard runs here and there (and then salt most of the game away late - still iffy play calling).
Fundamentally, the RBs aren't who they were last year. We keep seeing a "crease" here and there on UFR that they might be able to hit, but they never do. Corum's depth of TD runs is now a pretty big blinking red light (all but 2 have been less than 8 yards IIRC). The OL wasn't great even before Zinter's injury. I too was clamouring for Jones most of the year, but he's not going to be the difference between a good OL and great OL. The passing game has shriveled up from what we saw earlier this year and it's not even the WRs not getting open, it's the play call basically can't deliver an open guy. All defenses need to do (slight over simplification) is drop 8 guys into zone and I don't think Michigan can move the ball consistently. Go man and I don't know if Wilson or CJ can beat Alabama level athletes. Loveland can torch LBs. Ignore the drop against Iowa - why isn't that button hit until it breaks? They motion in Wilson and then do a quick out to get 10 yards on 3rd down. That happens once. On the flip side they get 1 good run with Orji and then do it again and get nothing because duh, he's running the ball.
This isn't to say what Michigan has done this year isn't impressive or a massive success. It's just that as the season has gone along, the struggles of the offense you'd expect to see against improved competition have been a bit disproportionate. They're averaging 4.5 YPP since PSU. That's just not going to cut it. Last year when shit hit the fan against TCU I had confidence in JJ standing back there and keeping them in it. This year, I'm losing that confidence.
The play calling has generally meh these last few weeks. Again, fun to laugh at PSU for 30 straight runs, but as I pointed out those runs were by and large as good as going Orji-cat and lurching forward for 3 yards at a time. That's a significant problem. Love what Moore has done over the last 3 seasons overall, but they are burning downs on fire with the inside runs that, at best, get you 3 yards. But this isn't Michigan's OL/RB "at best" so they end up with 1-2 yards.
Do I think they can draw some stuff up and compete with Alabama in a month? Yes, but we've ALL thought of more PA or using Edwards as a WR/when he lines up with a LB don't motion him back into the backfield just to ID coverage. At this point it's pretty clear that they're not going to do that stuff. They're going to run into 9 man boxes, call PA in the most obvious spots, and rely on that defense to hold up. Maybe a few "trick plays" in the form of jet sweeps or reverses, but nothing that tests defenses in space. If my grandma had wheels and all, but If Iowa had a decent offense, what leads us to believe Michigan could have "turned it on" at the drop of a hat and put up 24 points (not resulting in a loss, just a way closer game) when not gifted an incompetent Iowa offense that led directly to 1 TD and STs that led to another. Michigan's average scoring drive was 18 yards. Their average scoring TD drive was 5.5 yards! Again, that's really bad.
December 4th, 2023 at 9:35 AM ^
Yeah, I'm a bit snakebit from TCU, but that's my concern too. Michigan's play style is good for a Big 10 style rockfight, but if they need to put up 48 points against Washington, Texas, or Alabama, are we comfortable in that gear?
If JJ, Corum (and hopefully Edwards) show up the way they often do for the big games, then yes. Fingers crossed!
December 4th, 2023 at 9:37 AM ^
Orrrr, just maaaaybe, the Stalions drama and not having Coach Harbaugh on the sidelines was enough to disrupt things over the past few weeks. And I wouldn't read too much into the Iowa game because 1. They're pretty good defensively, and 2. Michigan knew they just needed to get out with a win and hopefully healthy.
You might be right to be concerned, but I'm sure not going to spend the next 4 weeks in a worry about a team that is undefeated and has the best chance this University has seen to win a National Championship in 25 years.
December 4th, 2023 at 10:13 AM ^
the Stalions drama and not having Coach Harbaugh on the sidelines was enough to disrupt things over the past few weeks.
O, I'm sure it did to some degree! But the key point here is the PSU game was a microcosm of the offense. The offense was actually pretty mediocre, if not kind bad that whole game.
And yes Iowa has a good defense, but when Michigan was kind of going for it, it was rough. JJ throwing a ball right to a LB's face 3 yards behind Loveland is not Stallions/Harbaugh/good defense. That was just a terrible throw and he's had a few as of late. Otherwise he was getting sacked and the WRs weren't open. That's not going to change against Bama who has better athletes. And overall the play calling was just flat. They didn't need to score 50 points, but that doesn't mean you reserve yourself to 2 YPC right up Nugent's butt.
I use SP+ for stuff, but the "adjusted" part of it still has flaws. Iowa's defense is slightly inflated because of who they played this year. The best offenses (most talented) they played this year were PSU and Michigan. Neither of those offenses are world beaters. I'm pretty confident that Washington and Oregon would light Iowa's defense up.
December 4th, 2023 at 11:15 AM ^
I am on board with a lot of what you are saying but don't put much stock in the Iowa game. With the current divisions the BIG championship game is an exhibition. Michigan did not look interested in the game because they weren't interested in the game.
December 4th, 2023 at 12:17 PM ^
I don't put a ton of stock in it when it comes to the staff calling certain plays. Packing it in and trying to just run clock is fine overall I supposed.
My bigger concern is the non-opponent dependent stuff. When JJ drops back to pass and gets a DE in his face in 1.5 seconds, that's not due to running bland stuff against Iowa. When Wilson and CJ run a route combo and are completely covered. Again, not a "don't show stuff against Iowa" thing. That's my concern.
December 4th, 2023 at 9:42 AM ^
Generally agree. It feels Negative Nancy but I think it's just being realistic.
I think the best hope for suddenly everything changing for the better is that whatever issue JJ has been working through really heals up 100% and he can effectively use his legs again. What made us kind of invincible on third downs for the first half of the season (aside from playing garbage teams) is that he could move around and wait for a receiver to get open, and he was good at throwing on the run.
It's not that he's been a total statue the last three games, but pre-injury at PSU, he was more unstoppable. With the shuffling on the O-line, they really need his ability to scramble, roll out, keep on a designed run or option, or move in the pocket to find an open receiver.
December 4th, 2023 at 10:22 AM ^
So, JJ's leg injury can certainly hamper his mobility, restrict the offensive gameplan some, and cause some minor issues throwing the ball. Completely valid.
That doesn't explain running the ball into the back of Keegan for 2 YPC and the drop back passing game going nowhere. Watch the route combos and who JJ has windows to throw to during the last few games, there are few. It happened against Maryland last year, they dropped 8 guys in coverage and Michigan just kind of sputtered. They torched OSU because they went man with DBs who couldn't hack it. This year is the same problem but they're not getting mediocre DBs against Bama in a month.
Also, his leg injury doesn't result in him throwing the ball right at LBs 3 yards behind Loveland.
Overall, if you QB is hampered you have to draw up stuff to account for his limitations. The offense since his injury hasn't done that at all. And at this point I think it's fair to say that the offense isn't just doing what is necessary to win ugly games, it's legitimately hampered by a few things.
December 4th, 2023 at 11:04 AM ^
I don't think we're disagreeing about anything. My point was just a fully healthy JJ makes us more likely to move the ball. So, that's the hope, if one is inclined to be hopeful.
Separately:
Also, his leg injury doesn't result in him throwing the ball right at LBs 3 yards behind Loveland.
Agreed, but are you saying that is a typical mistake for JJ? I consider it an aberration.
December 4th, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^
Agreed, but are you saying that is a typical mistake for JJ? I consider it an aberration.
That's fair. The problem is those instances of throwing the ball right at opponents have all happened as of late (outside of BGSU) and they weren't due to clever coverages. He just literally did not see a LB sitting 6 yards in front of his face.
December 4th, 2023 at 9:55 AM ^
Watching,
your concerns are fair. However you can take solace in that they have a month to heal up, prepare and be the best version of themselves. You might also watch Bama film in the loss to Texas and the Auburn game so recent.
Michigan might lose this game but I will take what we have seen of Michigan in all you are concerned, over what I have seen of The Great Satan in their march to the playoff.
Smell some roses and take the moment in.
December 4th, 2023 at 10:27 AM ^
However you can take solace in that they have a month to heal up, prepare and be the best version of themselves.
Absolutely. They need to get healthy along the OL and figure out who the best 5 is. But even if they do, that improvement isn't going to be enough to drastically change the running game or pass pro.
Also, unfortunately this staff hasn't really shown the ability to gameplan for a bowl game. 21 UGA was a ball of knives so kind of fine there, but last year they spent time on a Philly special, FB dive, and couldn't handle a 3-3-5 that everyone knew was going to send LBs down on run action. Edwards had that big opening run and then went for less than 3 YPC. That OL was better than this one and that Edwards was better than this year's Corum and Edwards so a little worried there.
December 4th, 2023 at 10:54 AM ^
Could be excuse-making, could be BS, but I get the sense that the staff didn't take TCU as seriously as they would a UGA or Bama. First half offensive game plan with no JJ runs and letting TCU LB's pound the LOS without play action was just mind boggling.
This is why I'm glad we're getting Bama - the only way we win this game is by playing our best game which includes play calling that keeps the Bama defense off balance.
December 4th, 2023 at 10:59 AM ^
But that's like a REALLY big problem, right? A coaching staff going into a playoff game thinking "yeah, we can probably do this with a hand tied behind our back" should make all of us terrified because they do that constantly. Even against good teams, JJ runs are a change up, not a constant state of being.
Also, regarding the LBs pounding the OL at all run action... uhh Michigan does that no matter the opponent. Their base run is basically a 2 yard inside run and they call it 12 times a game.
December 4th, 2023 at 11:12 AM ^
Absolutely it is a big problem. But given how some of the PSU/Maryland game went, I think this sort of thinking is still around in the program. Again, this is why I'm glad we're getting Bama, because there is zero chance they think they can win this game running their base stuff.
On your second paragraph I think you're going a bit fan-brained. Michigan doesn't run a base play called "inside run to gain 2 yards." That can be the result of the play, and there can be a lot of reasons it only gains 2 yards, and not all of them are the number of defenders in the box. But getting an inside run with an RPS minus that still gains 2 yards isn't the end of the world - outside runs that are RPS minus usually have much worse results and have much more opportunity for significant losses. We've also seen that if 8 man boxes are beat on inside runs, the defense can be in big trouble because they have an RB coming North-South at them at high speed and a mistake is 6.
In the Iowa game, the CJ end around looked to me like an excellent RPS + play call that delivered 2 blockers to 2 defenders and should have been a 7-8 yard run at minimum and potentially a big run if CJ can make a move on the safety. What happened? Both blockers essentially whiffed and it was cut down for no gain. I can see the staff saying they are better off sticking with an inside run for 2 yards when Iowa's offense is literally incapable of moving the ball.
I'm not really arguing with you - I think we need to see much more innovation in the game play for the playoffs to be able to win. That being said, there will still be inside runs and those may still only gain 2 yards sometimes, and that's ok.
December 4th, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^
Michigan doesn't run a base play called "inside run to gain 2 yards."
Well obviously that's not the play call. That's the end result.
But getting an inside run with an RPS minus that still gains 2 yards isn't the end of the world
It is when that situation and end result happens a dozen or so times per game. It's a choice to look at a 9 man box and run it right at it anyways. It's not the defense making a play or being superhero level good. It's a simple numbers game that Michigan chooses to engage with. It's like switching Zavier Simpson onto Zach Eddy. Is that a good idea? No. Could it work out in Michigan's favor? I mean, yeah, but it probably won't and why put yourself in that situation in the first place?
CJ end around looked to me like an excellent RPS + play call that delivered 2 blockers to 2 defenders and should have been a 7-8 yard run at minimum and potentially a big run if CJ can make a move on the safety. What happened? Both blockers essentially whiffed and it was cut down for no gain.
So, here's a problem that is kind of touched on here. Michigan's approach, as Brian has described it, is a "1 guy" approach. If 1 guy doesn't win his match up, the play gets blown up. Michigan plays in a phone booth a lot of the time. 16 bodies in the box. A slanting backside DE has blown up multiple Michigan plays because that guy needs to lose his match up or the play is over. That's kind of frustrating that 11 out of 11 guys (not necessarily the backside WR, but you get my point) have to win their match up for a play to be successful. And even "successful" is a term that is poorly defined. Not every play will gain the available yards between the LoS and the endzone. But in a lot of cases a "successful" play tops out at 4 yards. That means the average is somewhere less than that.
December 4th, 2023 at 11:05 AM ^
They're averaging 4.5 YPP since PSU.
Yeah, and that's against three top 10 defenses and 1 game where they went vanilla the whole time as to not give anything away to OSU. 3 YPC is not horrible. 27 for 27 is horrible. 3 YPC allows you to win defensive battles. Rushing yards in those games:
Michigan 227, PSU 164
Michigan 156, OSU 107
Michigan 66, Iowa 35 (I'm not going to do the sack adjusted thing, but realize that these numbers are held down by sacks.)
Their average scoring TD drive was 5.5 yards! Again, that's really bad.
This is just a ridiculous comment. They took advantage of short fields. When they had to drive the length of the field, they had to settle for FGs. That happens. But nowhere have I ever seen anyone complain about average scoring TD drive length. 5.5 yards is really good. That means we have an excellent defense and special teams.
December 4th, 2023 at 11:54 AM ^
Yeah, and that's against three top 10 defenses and 1 game where they went vanilla the whole time as to not give anything away to OSU. 3 YPC is not horrible. 27 for 27 is horrible. 3 YPC allows you to win defensive battles. Rushing yards in those games:
And 2 of those teams have putrid/not good offenses. Bama isn't going to put up 0 points or 1 scoring drive. And some of Michigan's scoring issues are self-inflicted so I'm not even saying the defense got the better of the offense. I'm saying the offense didn't do much on their own accord.
When they had to drive the length of the field, they had to settle for FGs.
When they had to drive any field at all they moved the ball an average of 25 yards to score. Their non-scoring drives drag that number down. They were gifted 2 TDs by their defense (yes it's a good defense but also holy fuck Iowa is bad and Alabama won't give them those short fields) and otherwise they basically didn't do anything. Outside of those 2 TDs they got into the redzone twice the whole game and one time was because of a fumble.
12 drives. 1 organic visit to the redzone. That's just not good.
Bama doesn't have the rankings/stats that Iowa's defense does, but I put a lot of stock into that being because of who Iowa played. SP+ is opponent adjusted, but I don't think they adjust enough.
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