THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#2 Michigan (20-3, 14-3 B1G) vs #7 Ohio State (20-8, 12-8)	always
WHERE	RAW POWER Stadium Indianapolis, IN
WHEN	1 PM Eastern Saturday, March 13th
THE LINE	Kenpom: M -4 Torvik: ?
TELEVISION	CBS PBP: Jim Nantz, probably Analyst: Bill Raftery, surely

THE OVERVIEW

Michigan draws five-seed Ohio State in the Big Ten semifinals, and while this is unfortunate for one reason—they probably match up better against Purdue's paint-bound Cs—it may be fortunate for another. OSU had to play Thursday and their win over Purdue took an overtime session. They might have some tired legs.

You no doubt remember the instant classic game against the Buckeyes from earlier this year. Losing that sent them into a bit of a tailspin, if losing to three Kenpom top ten teams qualifies. They finished out the year with losses to Michigan State, Iowa, and Illinois before scraping by Minnesota in the second round of the Big Ten tournament. Even so they appear to be solidly on the 2 line with an outside shot at a 1 if they end the season by sweeping Michigan and Iowa/Illinois back-to-back.

Any chance Michigan gets booted off the one line went out the window with the Maryland win, so the stakes here are "get a banner, piss Illinois off further." Pretty good stakes.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Keeping the red on Brooks since he did wear a brace in the Maryland game. Juwan Howard gets a crown for being Big Ten coach of the year, and not for stuffing Mark Turgeon in a locker. We have removed Mike Smith's banana peel because his TO rate since the Minnesota loss is an acceptable 17. Also he's coming off a 15 assist, zero turnover game.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

Kyle Young left today's game against Purdue after taking a Trevion Williams elbow to his ear and did not return. A concussion seems like a strong possibility. In his absence Justice Sueing will step into the 4 spot by default, as OSU doesn't have anyone else in the right size department. For whatever reason Walker started on the bench versus Purdue despite playing 35 minutes.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

A full accounting of OSU's personnel can be found in the preview from earlier this year.

In brief, OSU has two high-usage stars. EJ Liddell is a stretch five who survives on defense since he's 6'7" and gives opposing defenses a ton of trouble since developing into a legitimate stretch threat (36% from three on the year). Duane Washington is Not Just A Shooter who's most effective behind the line but has some game inside; he takes tough shots and makes them at a high rate. He gave Eli Brooks the business in the first meeting.

 

[Campredon]

Justice Sueing is a 6'7" slasher with a reasonable three-point stroke. PG CJ Walker is OSU's least efficient major player but keeps the offense running smoothly and has a solid assist rate. His midrange outburst from the first OSU-M game was an aberration.

Two incredibly efficient role players round out the top six. PF Kyle Young shoots 57% from the floor with a rock-bottom TO rate; he was 4/6 from three early against Purdue before that elbow found him. SG Justin Ahrens is probably the most extreme Just A Shooter in college basketball, with 5 attempts inside the line versus 117 outside. He's knocking the latter down at a 44% clip.

FWIW, even though Young doesn't have a lot of usage he's been key for OSU's offense:

That's a sizeable dent in OREBs and 2P%. If he's out—and I'd be surprised if he's available on a one-day turnaround given what happened to him—it's a big deal.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Left offense, right defense, conference numbers:

That adds up to the second-best offense in the Big Ten and the tenth-best defense. Aside from the FT rate allowed, this has the rough outline of a Beilein team. One other thing is different as well: OSU is the most isolation-based team in the league, dead last in assist rate. Despite this they're second in 2P% and 4th in 3P%. They spread you out with a stretch five and then attack downhill; failing that they get bailed out by Washington being a GABS guy.

OSU has a lot of midrange usage but they survive it because they're very good there, and they mostly aren't taking Rocket Watts 18-footers. Liddell is the most active midrange guy and hits 43% there because most of those shots are fairly close to the bucket.

THE KEYS

[Campredon]

Stretch vs post. This was a dead heat in the first game, and a major reason that game was such a barnburner. Dickinson put up 22 on 17 shot equivalents with just one turnover; Liddell responded with 23 on 18 after hitting 3/5 threes. This same dynamic will be in play for much of the game. It is unlikely that either center is truly neutralized and that we could be in for another high scoring fistfight.

FWIW, this is a relatively comfortable Austin Davis game because backup C Zed Key is a paint-bound 6'8" guy. Davis's defensive limitations are exploitable in other ways than direct post-ups, of course, but it's not a situation like Maryland.

Three quality and whether that shows up on the scoreboard. Dickinson probably gets the nod from the first game because along with those points he put up, Ohio State doubling led to a barrage of three pointers that almost all looked like this:

Michigan blazed out to an amazing start from behind the line and then went 1/10 in the second half on looks like the above. Meanwhile OSU got hot in the second half thanks to a number of extremely tough makes, most of them from Washington. Washington will do that to teams, but nobody does that consistently. The end result: the same number of makes on about the same number of attempts.

Given the situation in the post it's likely that the EV of Michigan threes will remain higher than OSU threes. If that actually leads to more points for Michigan it'll be tough for OSU to keep up.

Washington isolation defense. Liddell will be able to lift Dickinson out of the paint, and this was a major problem in the first game. The rim-averse Washington (21% of his shots there, hitting 51%) was a perfect 7/7 at the bucket and took just one midrange shot. A lot of this was against Eli Brooks, though Washington also got the better of an aggressive Chaundee Brown a couple times.

The presumed absence of Young opens up additional options for Michigan since they can likely slide one of the guards onto Ahrens or Musah Jallow and give primary Washington duties to a bigger guy like Livers or Wagner. Slowing him down at all after a 161 ORTG, 30 percent usage game in the regular season matchup would go a long way towards a win.

The wildcard. In Young's absence OSU turned to Harvard transfer Seth Towns, who's been limited much of the season with injury. The Purdue game was his first double-digit scoring performance since January 23rd against Wisconsin. At Harvard, Towns was a high-usage sniper. If he can find that groove again that will help shift some burden away from the two stars. OSU's other options—Jallow, Eugene Brown, Meechie Johnson—are not currently viable offensive options.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 4.