THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

Michigan is at the precipice. A win against Indiana combined with an Illinois loss at Wisconsin (Saturday, 2 pm ET, ESPN) would lock up the Big Ten title before the weekend is over. As it stands, it's merely all but locked up: Bart Torvik's numbers give the Wolverines a greater than 99.5% likelihood of winning an outright Big Ten title (that page rounds to the nearest full percent). That doesn't even factor in Ayo Dosunmu's broken nose, which could keep him out of the next couple games, as it did in last night's Illini win over Nebraska.

As for Indiana, their last two games were (1) losing to Michigan State at home by seven and (2) allowing a 23-8 lead at Rutgers to turn into a 70-50 deficit before some meaningless late points cut the margin. Their increasingly inexplicable season sweep of Iowa is keeping them as one of the last couple teams in the field on the Bracket Matrix but they're in a perilous bubble spot. A win for the Hoosiers here would be massive for their tourney chances. Of course, one could've said the same about avoiding a loss to State.

Are the natives getting restless with Archie Miller? Perhaps. Would it be very fun to make them even more restless? Oh, most definitely.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

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No changes, though Mike Smith is another strong game or two away from losing the banana.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

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You may note that both of the team's big men are already in the starting lineup. The load on Trayce Jackson-Davis is one of the heaviest to bear in the country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

As I just mentioned, few teams are as reliant on one player as the Hoosiers are on their star sophomore center. Jackson-Davis is seventh in the KenPom player of the year rankings, plays 85% of the team's minutes in Big Ten games (a ridiculous mark for a big man), uses 30% of the team's possessions and shots with few turnovers, and is relied upon to be their primary interior scorer, an elite rebounder on both ends, and a high-level rim protector.

When TJD isn't on the court, IU goes from playing their non-cupcake opponents dead even to losing by over ten points per 100 possessions despite getting a lot of three-point luck in the non-TJD minutes (via Hoop Lens):

As usual with on/off data, the 2FG% numbers are most telling, and Indiana collapses on both ends of the floor without TJD. Critically, TJD is one of the best players in the conference at avoiding foul trouble; he hasn't fouled out of a game this season and has only committed four fouls twice. The flip side to that is he'll occasionally give up on a defensive play because he knows a foul is the worst outcome for his team, much like Luka Garza with Iowa, though TJD is the far superior defender.

Jackson-Davis doesn't have the most refined offensive repertoire but he's a solid post-up scorer, really dangerous as a cutter, and a force in transition. Hunter Dickinson passed the Garza test with flying colors; TJD's athleticism and shot-blocking prowess will present a different style for him to handle. Not having to worry about the three-pointer from the center position (and usually one or two others) will play to Dickinson's advantage. 

Despite having no center depth, Indiana is the rare team that starts two paint-bound big men and sticks with that look for most of the game. 6'8 power forward Race Thompson sees about 25 minutes per game and only ~5 of those are at center because of TJD's ability to stay on the floor. He's most useful on defense, where he's a decent one-on-one defender and disruptive weakside shot-blocker. On offense, he tends to hang out in the dunker spot and wait for dumpoff passes or putback opportunities, so the paint gets clogged with the two post players.

As has become an Archie Miller staple, the guard play is inconsistent and limited by the offensive environment. Sophomore Armaan Franklin has arguably been the best of the bunch when healthy because of his defense-bending 45% three-point shooting. He's a mess inside the arc, though, and has disappeared in several of IU's losses, including a zero-point, 16-minute performance in the Rutgers defeat on Wednesday. [EDIT: Franklin exited that game after aggravating an ankle injury he dealt with earlier this year. If he's unable to play, Trey Galloway is likely to take his starting spot. Race Thompson has also been limited by a broken nose—those have really been going around this year—but he played 22 minutes against RU with a mask on.]

Aljami Durham and Rob Phinisee have been staples in the Hoosier backcourt for a while now. The former is a 40% gunner beyond the arc who can hit the occasional triple off the dribble, while the latter is usually the lead guard when he's on the floor. Neither guard has been able to score with any efficiency on two-pointers, partly because they're not dynamic creators and partly because there are always opposing big men waiting near the rim. Phinisee is turnover-prone—he has 11 assists and ten turnovers over the last three games.

With their three cupcake games removed, Indiana's shot chart is pretty ugly and indicative of spacing problems:

While a lot of shots originate around the basket, a good number of them don't quite get all the way there, and even when they do they barely scrape above 50% on shots that should go down at a significantly higher clip. Life as a guard is difficult when there's always a shot-blocker in the way. Welcome to Archieball, everyone hates it here.

Miller doesn't lean too much on his bench but here are a few notables:

• The sixth man is three-star freshman wing Trey Galloway, who resembles John Cusack playing Rob in High Fidelity. He's effective when IU gets out in transition and a disaster in halfcourt play, shooting only 5/28 on threes. Synergy likes his defense quite a bit considering the whole Cusack thing. He's sometimes used as a pick-and-roll ballhandler but those plays don't go particularly well on average.
• One-time coveted Michigan recruit Jerome Hunter isn't the same top-50 athlete he was prior to a couple major injuries, though he'll still flash that high-level offensive ability for a few plays a game. With the top gear not quite there, he attempts more threes than twos, and he's become a proficient outside shooter who can still finish half his shots inside the arc by beating closeouts and utilizing his NBA wing body.
• Touted lead guard prospect Khristian Lander had an understandably slow start to the season after reclassifying and enrolling a year early. He's gone from end-of-bench status to regularly getting into the 10-20 minute range over the last month. He also hasn't scored in five games with nine assists and 12 turnovers in that span. He has a long way to go.

Low-usage guys Anthony Leal and Jordan Geronimo might get spot minutes if Miller has to extend the bench. Nobody mentioned here is a big man. It's literally just TJD and Thompson at center with Thompson, Hunter, and a little bit of Geronimo—a 6'6, 220-pound freshman—at power forward.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four factors, back to conference only:

Indiana's biggest strength—drawing fouls—is something Michigan is one of the best teams in the country at countering. Meanwhile, you saw the shot chart, and the offensive rebounding is surprisingly bad for a team that usually has two post players. They also make only 66.5% of their free throws, so if this is close down the stretch, the Wolverines will have a decided edge at the line.

The defense is getting lit up from beyond the arc, which is probably part fluke and part playing two bigs. The bigger concern is they aren't particularly good at defending the rim or blocking shots despite the presence of TJD. The on-ball defenders outside of Durham have not graded out well on Synergy; TJD is putting out a lot of fires and that often drags him out of position.

THE KEYS

Michigan's guards should have the edge on IU's [Campredon]

Let Indiana run their offense, I guess? If the Hoosiers want to throw Jackson-Davis into Dickinson's chest a bunch of times and hope for a home whistle, that both sounds like their best path to victory and an unlikely one. Michigan is going to be able to send more help than usual if they're so inclined, which they may not be after the Garza destruction. Regardless, the presence of a second player down low is going to let Franz Wagner and/or Isaiah Livers provide extra rim protection. The guard defending Phinisee, a career 31% three-point shooter in a slump, should be able to dig down on post entries, too.

Drive, dish, dunk, do it again. As mentioned above, Indiana's guards aren't great at keeping the ball in front of them. Mike Smith has been making even good defenders look foolish lately with his pick-and-roll work and I have no idea how Indiana is going to decide who guards Wagner. Jackson-Davis is inclined to give help and go for blocks. Attacking IU's perimeter defenders until they show they can stop penetrating drives that force TJD to choose between short-guy layups and Dickinson thunderdunks sounds like a winning strategy.

Press and zone? The Hoosiers, typically, are among the most turnover-prone teams in the conference. They don't have great outside shooting and often can't go four-out, let alone five-out. They're coached by Archie Miller. If Juwan Howard wants to keep the Hoosiers on their toes and throw out more of the 1-2-1 press and matchup zone than he usually deploys, we could see some really ugly IU possessions leading to easy points.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 8.