archie miller

THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

Michigan is at the precipice. A win against Indiana combined with an Illinois loss at Wisconsin (Saturday, 2 pm ET, ESPN) would lock up the Big Ten title before the weekend is over. As it stands, it's merely all but locked up: Bart Torvik's numbers give the Wolverines a greater than 99.5% likelihood of winning an outright Big Ten title (that page rounds to the nearest full percent). That doesn't even factor in Ayo Dosunmu's broken nose, which could keep him out of the next couple games, as it did in last night's Illini win over Nebraska.

As for Indiana, their last two games were (1) losing to Michigan State at home by seven and (2) allowing a 23-8 lead at Rutgers to turn into a 70-50 deficit before some meaningless late points cut the margin. Their increasingly inexplicable season sweep of Iowa is keeping them as one of the last couple teams in the field on the Bracket Matrix but they're in a perilous bubble spot. A win for the Hoosiers here would be massive for their tourney chances. Of course, one could've said the same about avoiding a loss to State.

Are the natives getting restless with Archie Miller? Perhaps. Would it be very fun to make them even more restless? Oh, most definitely.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

No changes, though Mike Smith is another strong game or two away from losing the banana.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

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You may note that both of the team's big men are already in the starting lineup. The load on Trayce Jackson-Davis is one of the heaviest to bear in the country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

2/16/2020 – Michigan 89, Indiana 65 – 16-9, 7-7 Big Ten

Sports fans are prone to wild swings in mood, often with little justification. Everything that just happened will keep on happening, and this goes double when things are bad. Back when I ran the Blogpoll voters tended to overrate their own teams a hair when things were going well, but it was a dead certainty that they'd under-rank them significantly after a loss. Every voter, every time.

Lose painfully for a month and your perspective gets jaundiced. When Michigan played at Nebraska a few weeks ago they were down Zavier Simpson and Isaiah Livers. Then Franz Wagner got in foul trouble. Michigan spent a big chunk of the first half with Adrian Nunez and CJ Baird on the court. Our photoshopper-in-residence Abraham wondered on twitter why he was watching a random MAC game, and I laughed sardonically.

At some point in January I said I wanted to sim to the end of the season and get the Howard croots on campus. This season felt like a snakebit write-off: Livers couldn't stay on the court, the trident was haunted, Michigan would get a million good looks they miss while opponents poured in every variety of garbage known to man.

At the same time I tried to argue that Michigan's January was a massive statistical outlier that could not last, because Michigan was not the second-worst team in the country at all things from behind the three-point line. And lo:

Those five games are the five they've played in February.

Michigan is starting to look like Michigan again but the key is playing this way through March (and staying healthy) via @ethan_sears https://t.co/U1qQIU8WDS pic.twitter.com/2sqv103WZd

— Dylan Burkhardt (@umhoops) February 17, 2020

The situation is now flipped. Michigan's probably ahead of its skis a little. But you've seen the shots. You've seen Michigan tee up open corner threes over and over again as the opponent issues a contested jack from NBA range. Reality is somewhere between 59 and 1. It's a lot closer to 1.

[After THE JUMP: The Mona Lisa of floor slaps]

Previously: (Rather Early) Season Preview Podcast (post-Franz-injury update in this week's Ace Pod), Big Ten Tiers Part One

To quickly recap part one:

Tier I: Michigan State
Tier II: Maryland, Ohio State
Tier III: Purdue, Michigan
Tier IV: Illinois, Wisconsin

This conveniently split the conference in half and also serves as my dividing line for which teams will make the NCAA tournament. The next two, perhaps three, teams have a chance to at least make a run at the bubble; I'm less optimistic about the rest, and the bottom of the conference could get ugly.

Tier V: Fatally Flawed?

​Joe Wieskamp can fill it up, but can Iowa stop anyone? [Patrick Barron]

8. Penn State

Coach: Patrick Chambers (ninth year at PSU)
2018-19 record: 14-18 (7-13 Big Ten), 1-1 vs. Michigan
Key returners: PG Jamari Wheeler, G Myles Dread, F Lamar Stevens, C Mike Watkins
Key departures: G Josh Reaves, G Rasir Bolton
Top newcomer: G Curtis Jones (Oklahoma State transfer)

There are a couple ways to think about Penn State. One is that they've hit on an intersection of talent and experience that often leads to a breakthrough year. They got stronger as 2018-19 went on, finishing 7-3 in conference play with wins over Michigan and Maryland. The numbers are in their favor: KenPom's preseason rankings put them 43rd, while Bart Torvik's has them all the way up at 19th. In forward Lamar Stevens, they return a first-team coaches all-conference player who turned down a chance at the NBA.

The other is that they remain Penn State, a program that has made four NCAA tournament appearances since 1965, produced two draft picks since 1984, and finished above tenth in the conference once in eight seasons under coach Pat Chambers. Their last time in the Big Dance? 2011, the year before Chambers took over. Before that 7-3 finish last season, they started 0-10 in the Big Ten. Stevens put up big counting stats but one could easily argue a player with greater efficiency should've had his coaches first-team spot—the media gave it to Minnesota's Jordan Murphy instead.

I lean towards the second way of thinking. While Stevens is a good player, he's asked to carry an unreasonable load that stretches him beyond his natural skill set—he made 46% of his 454(!) two-point attempts and only 20-of-91 three-pointers last season. That's unlikely to change; aggressive lead guard Rasir Bolton, a promising shotmaker who played 2/3rds of the team's minutes as a freshman, transferred to Iowa State, and no other player projects to take on major usage. Even if sophomore shooting specialist Myles Dread breaks out, he lingered below 14% usage last season, a really low figure; he'd have to add a lot to his game.

Losing pesky wing Josh Reaves, meanwhile, will hurt the defense, though perhaps not as much as his lockdown reputation suggested—PSU's defensive numbers were nearly identical with him on and off the court, per Hoop Lens.

The frontcourt of Stevens and Mike Watkins is excellent when Watkins is on, which has only been for some of an up-and-down three years in which he's publicly and bravely dealt with mental health problems. The backcourt gives me greater pause; point guard Jamari Wheeler was mostly a spectator last year, sophomore swingman Myreon Jones had a disastrous debut season, and the transfers they're using to plug holes are either inexperienced (redshirt sophomore wing Izaiah Brockington from St. Bonaventure) or searching for success (wing Curtis Jones, who's bounced from Indiana to Oklahoma State to PSU).

Maybe with a different coach I'd be more of a believer, but I thought Chambers had a more talented team two years ago, and the best he could do was win an NIT title. He'd be under more pressure if Penn State cared much about hoops.

9. Iowa

Coach: Fran McCaffrey (tenth year)
2018-19 record: 23-12 (10-10), 1-1 vs. Michigan
Key returners: PG Jordan Bohannon (inj.), G Joe Wieskamp, C Luka Garza
Key departures: G Isaiah Moss, F Tyler Cook, F Nicholas Baer
Top newcomer: F Patrick McCaffrey

The Hawkeyes squeaked into the tourney last year as a ten-seed that, as we've come to expect from Fran McCaffrey squads, relied on an excellent offense (#15 on KenPom) to cover for an abominable defense (#111, worst in the B1G).

It should be more of the same this year, but worse. The status of point guard Jordan Bohannon, whose off-the-dribble outside shooting is critical to the offense's success, is very much in doubt after he underwent hip surgery in May. While he'll try to give it a go this season, quite possibly starting with their exhibition game on Monday, he has a redshirt available. The situation feels reminiscent of Spike Albrecht's final year at Michigan, when following hip surgery he looked like a shell of himself for the first eight games before shutting it down and maintaining his final season of eligibility. Valparaiso transfer Bakari Evelyn has some similarities to Bohannon's game but was less efficient at a lower level; the other options at point guard are freshmen of some variety.

Meanwhile, burly forward Tyler Cook left for the NBA and guard Isaiah Moss transferred to Kansas, taking with them much-needed size, versatility, and athleticism from a team that already struggles to stop opponents from scoring. Junior center Luka Garza is a skilled scorer who gives almost all of it back on the other end. None of the other bigs project as defensive stoppers, either.

There's plenty of talent on the wings, headlined by sophomore Joe Wieskamp, who looks like a potential star after posting 56/42/77 (2P%/3P%/FT%) shooting splits. 6'5" sophomore Connor McCaffrey, Fran's kid, has the versatility to help out at point guard, though he had the usual freshman issues as a distributor and was a bad defender even by Iowa standards. Another McCaffrey, Patrick, is a 6'9" four-star freshman. That's a lot of youth, though, and young guys tend to struggle on defense even when not in a program that's ranked 123rd, 242nd(!), and 111th on that end over the last three years.

Even if Iowa finds a way to replicate last year's offense while Bohannon is, at best, playing at less than 100%, I have a hard time seeing a way their inability to slow opponents doesn't keep them from the tourney. They should be fun to watch, though—they're going to turn up the tempo and try to out-gun teams.

[After the JUMP, we get more definitive.]