ESSENTIALS

WHAT	(MW1) Michigan State vs (MW3) Michigan
WHERE	Centene Community Ice Center "Maryland Heights", MO
WHEN	Sunday, 6:30 PM EDT
KRACH Prob.	Michigan State (62.3%)
TELEVISION	ESPNU

OVERVIEW

Is this Hockey Armageddon? Maybe? Michigan and Michigan State meet in the NCAA Tournament for the first time ever on Easter Sunday with a trip to St. Paul and the Frozen Four on the line. These teams have already played five times this season, including last weekend, so why not do it one more time? Michigan State escaped seeming death versus WMU on Friday after trailing 4-2 midway through the third to win 5-4 in overtime, while Michigan rallied from 2-1 down entering the third against North Dakota to win 4-3 in the late game. The stage is set. Let's do battle once again. 

THE US 

Michigan played a bruising game on Friday night against North Dakota, starting with a disastrous first five minutes that saw Michigan caved in and allow an early goal on a clown-show rush defense sequence. Michigan started to clean it up defensively as the opening twenty went along but they exited that period down 1-0. It was in the second period that the Wolverines began to find their footing, scoring a tying goal but then giving up the lead on a tough deflection off NoDak star Jackson Blake. Michigan trailed 2-1 going into the third, against an opponent who was 20-0-0 on the season when leading after two. 

Stunningly, Michigan knocked the doors off, tying the game quickly on a gift from Dakota goalie Ludvig Persson and then scoring on a rebound to make it 3-2 not long after. Michigan dominated play in the third for the first 15 or so minutes, at one point leading the 3rd period shot count 14-1. They defended exceptionally well and got a fourth goal from Dylan Duke on a skilled passing play, which made it 4-2. NoDak eventually made their charge, cutting the lead to one with roughly five minutes to play and then Michigan held on for dear life in the 6v5 play. Jacob Barczewski made two huge saves late to slam the door and the Wolverines are moving on to the Regional Final yet again. 

One note: Seamus Casey took a hard hit in the first period and did not play after that. We have not gotten word of his health but that one looms large, it goes without saying.  

[AFTER THE JUMP: the them]

[Bill Rapai]

THE THEM

I wrote a preview on MSU exactly one week ago, so some of what follows will be copied and pasted from that piece because not much has changed. Since I wrote the last preview, MSU defeated Michigan in the B1G Championship Game that was "influenced" by "refereeing shenanigans" and that's all I'll say about that. Michigan generally played a good game, getting four by Trey Augustine in regulation and defended mostly well, but did have a couple defensive blunders and didn't get great goaltending, which contributed to the eventual result. That game went to OT, where Patrick Geary's point shot resulted in a rather soft GWG past Barczewski. 

That gave MSU the conference tournament crown and a #1 seed in this regional, where they took on Western Michigan on Friday. MSU led 2-1 midway through that game before surrendering three goals to trail 4-2 after three. They got one back midway through the third despite being throttled for the first 10 minutes (it was on their first shot of the period, eight minutes in) and tied it with under a minute left on a brilliant rush from D Artyom Levshunov, aided by atrocious rush defense from the Broncos. That tied the game and it to OT, where the deflated WMU side didn't have much intensity and MSU controlled play. Sparty got the winner on a nothing shot thrown at the net by Jeremy Davidson, taking a bounce and then going by Western goalie Cameron Rowe. That's how playoff OT goals tend to go. 

Back to back 5-4 OT wins for MSU have contributed to a bit of a "team of destiny" feel to the Green & White. If you've watched MSU the last month, they haven't played particularly well. Across four weekends of results against Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan, and WMU, State has been, at best, even with their opponents. In a number of those games they were outplayed, yet their record in those games sits at 4-1. Why? They have a high-end goalie in Trey Augustine who can hold them in it against a wave of opposition pressure and then they're a great counterpunching team. They wait for you to make a mistake and then pounce on a loose puck and convert. 

Case in point, the first goal they scored against Michigan last week. The Wolverines suffocated MSU for the first 10 minutes of that game, scoring once and having a second goal disallowed due to [REDACTED]. State barely mustered a shot over those opening 10 minutes, but they bided their time, leaned on their goalie, and waited for Luca Fantilli to turn it over and boom, it's in the back of the net: 

Tanner Kelly with his eighth of the season - he gets the assist from Tiernan Shoudy below the goal line. Tie game, 1-1. pic.twitter.com/N900lJw8Hv

— Michigan State Hockey (@MSU_Hockey) March 24, 2024

When it's all said and done, Michigan is leading in shots 8-1, but tied on the score sheet 1-1. That's how these guys get you. Their leaky defensive play suckers you in to pressing, but leaves you vulnerable to MSU's devastating rush offense if a puck is turned over. They allow a ton of shots but hang in there thanks to the goalie and then gamble and take their chances to get offensive opportunities. MSU had a breakaway goal against WMU and then the rush goal I mentioned to tie it. You can't get seduced into being too aggressive because it plays into their hands. 

As for the personnel, this is the stuff I will be C&Ping. Levshunov remains the big star, their #1 D who gobbles up minutes and makes things happen for them offensively from the back end. He's paired with Nash Nienhuis and they'll play a lot of minutes together. MSU's offense is still mostly a depth outfit, with four lines that can chip in. Isaac Howard is the big playmaker and the leading scorer, tied with Levshunov. Karsen Dorwart and Joey Larson are tied with 15 goals to lead the team, followed by Gavin O'Connell (14), Daniel Russel (13), Jeremy Davidson (12), and Red Savage (10). One guy has been a major thorn in the side of Michigan in particular, 4th liner Tanner Kelly. He's scored on Michigan in three three straight games, including 2 in the game last week. Michigan has to figure out a way to neutralize MSU's 4th line. I don't think terribly highly of any of MSU's D beyond their top pair and this outfit is certainly no one's idea of a good defensive team. 

[Bill Rapai]

SPECIAL TEAMS 

Two of the top five power plays in college hockey will be on display on Sunday night, Michigan's historically great unit as well as MSU's 7th-ranked unit. The bigger question is whether either team will have an opportunity to show what they can do on the PP, because the refereeing crews that worked the Friday games in Maryland Heights were not calling anything. Both the MSU/WMU game and the Michigan/NoDak game had just one penalty to each team, with the whistles notably being swallowed in the third period. Those refs were letting the two teams play, a notably different style than the B1G refs these two teams are accustomed to seeing.  

Michigan's PP is still clicking at 35.0% to 26.0% for MSU. There isn't much statistical difference between the two PKs, Michigan at 78.6% and MSU at 80.0%. Spartans went 0/1 on the PP and 0/1 on the kill against Western, allowing a PPG off a tough luck bounce in front. Michigan killed NoDak's PP but didn't do much on their lone opportunity. Michigan has had considerable success against MSU in the special teams department this season, including going 1/3 on the PP in last weekend's matchup while keeping the Spartans 0fer. You'd expect the Wolverines to retain the advantage in this game, but Casey's potential injury complicates that as he's the wizard on Michigan's PP and again, there may not be many opportunities in special teams at all, rendering this a moot point. 

[Bill Rapai]

GOALIES 

MSU's Trey Augustine remains extremely annoying to Michigan partisans because he's very good. His .917 SV% doesn't look incredible, but he faces as many shots as anyone in the country not named Lindenwood/Stonehill and many of those chances are dangerous. He's given up 4 goals in back-to-back games yet I felt in both games he was pretty good. I am very curious what MSU's record would be without Augustine, if they had a league average goaltender instead. I do not think they'd be very good, because Augustine is essential to MSU's success. He is their greatest asset in this matchup relative to Michigan. 

As for the Wolverines, Jacob Barczewski is probably the most pivotal player in this game. Barczewski played a pretty good game against North Dakota, maybe a little iffy on the third goal but there was nothing he could do on either of the first two and more importantly he made timely saves. He made a few big ones early on to keep the deficit to merely 1-0, which saved Michigan from being snowed under, and then made two huge ones late, saves that preserved the lead and nailed down the win. 

That was a money performance from Barczewski, a St. Louis kid back playing in his home metropolitan region. You know how much it means to him and now he has a chance to send Michigan to the Frozen Four, something he could never have dreamed of as a freshman in Canisius a half-decade ago. Michigan needs Barczewski to be good in this game to win, which is something he hasn't been much against MSU. His season SV% across the five games is .888, a number that's even lower in the last four since the one Michigan win over MSU. His performance last weekend in particular left a lot to be desired. Barczewski needs to block out everything that has come before this season against Sparty and lock in. This game is all that matters. 

[Bill Rapai]

KEYS

Get traffic in front of Trey Augustine. I used this bullet last time I previewed MSU. I thought Michigan did a better job getting traffic against Augustine last week but then WMU really showed the utility in doing so against State in the Friday game. They scored their opening goal on a screened point shot and scored another point shot goal later. MSU managed to score their 3rd goal on a similar play as well. Point is, in playoff hockey where teams are selling out to defend with all their might and space is at a premium, sometimes the easiest thing to do is a smart one, throwing pucks on net and obstructing the goalie's vision. Even if you don't beat him on the initial shot, you can score on a rebound, which Michigan did twice against NoDak. Put pucks on net and take Augustine's vision away. 

Have Jake Barczewski be good. Same bullet as the last two previews. Needs no further explanation if you read the "Goalies" section. Barczewsi's gotta keep this momentum going forward and come up big for Michigan one more time. 

Don't shoot yourself in the foot. This is a similar version to what I used in the North Dakota preview, but Michigan's biggest path to victory in this game is to get out of their own way. They gave up two goals against MSU last week on plays attributable to basic errors, Fantilli's turnover which I already embedded and a busted breakout pass by Ethan Edwards, when there was no forecheck pressure at all to force it. Puck management, puck management, puck management. Michigan's gotten so much better at controlling the neutral zone over the course of their season and even their in-zone defense has improved significantly in the last month or two, but they are still prone to glaring lapses and boneheaded errors. MSU lives to capitalize on those sorts of errors. This is where the game will be won.  

PREDICTIONS

are stupid for a one game hockey playoff