[Guest author update: Since I nailed Maryland’s offense and was certainly the main reason Minnesota didn’t bother to block Khaleke Hudson, I’m removing the cyan circle from around myself. Also, as a wife in the comments pointed out, I was using last year’s weight. Still not Ace though]

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It must have been very weird for Wisconsin when Gary Andersen was running zones out of ace formations using naturally born human beings from Earth. Having observed their bouts against Maryland* and Iowa, I’m happy to report things are back to normal in Madison again. Not only did they get the cheese factory that produces 6’6”/330 offensive linemen back online, but they’ve also made great strides in DNA splicing. We’ll talk about the three-assed “Watt-On” linebackers tomorrow. More frightening by far is what they’ve managed to come up with by combining every Wisconsin running back ever:

IT’S ALLLLIIIIIIIIIIIVE!!!!!!!! AND IT ONCE COMMITTED TO RUTTTTGEERRSSSSS!

*[Okay fine, I admit I looked past last week’s opponent. I take full responsibility for that 3rd quarter]

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Personnel: My diagram expands to 1080p if you click it.

Wisconsin has some Dudes, and they’ve got some Pals, but precious few Guys. RB Jonathan Taylor is plausibly as good as Saquon Barkley, and given Michigan’s lighter defense he might be more of an issue. TE Troy Fumagalli is the best tight end in college football: an excellent blocker and Hornibrook’s primary target.

FB Austin Ramesh is projected to be the first round pick of the Chicago Bears when Jim Harbaugh takes over next year. Ramesh will sub in and out for a jet motion receiver, usually A.J. Taylor with Jazz Peavy out. As a nod to the last 80 years of football history Wisconsin always has at least one receiver on the field, and until recently that was Quintez Cephus, who was getting Fumagalli-level targets and catching them at a 79% rate (he was awesome vs. Maryland). Now Cephus has been replaced by true freshman Danny Davis, who’s averaging 13.6 yards per target with a 2/3rds success rate.

The line is getting Wisconsin-y but an injury to redshirt freshman C Tyler Biadasz could be a big deal. Biadasz, who’s listed as questionable, is thick and spry, and gave the Badgers’ power offense an extra dimension as they loaded up tight ends on one side to change the balance of the line then pulled Biadasz like a guard. When he went out against Iowa they skipped last year’s crummy starter, nominal backup OC Brett Connors (Jr*), for 6’6”/337 lug Jason Erdmann. The result was something like what you might imagine Ben Braden at center would look like.

If Biadasz can’t go, they could shift LT Michael Deiter back to center—Deiter was a star interior lineman the last couple of years but at tackle he’s Mason Cole minus a crucial notch of pass protection. The problem is like every other team in this conference they don’t have any viable OTs—RT David Edwards is Juwann Bushell-Beatty except not as consistent as a down-blocker—I ticked him for seven negative events in 20 pass plays versus Maryland’s crappy pass rush; very good Iowa DE Anthony Nelson turned Edwards-Beatty into silly-putty.

The guards are also 6’6” and Ben Bradenesque—RG Beau Benzschawel murders tackles and linebackers on downblocks and zone plays, and makes heady decisions when pulling. LG Jon Dietzen is a line-caver. The whole line is top-heavy and can be burled backwards.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown]

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Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid? Seriously we need to replace “Pro-Style” with “Manball” because what they run in the pros today is a Joe Tiller spread and Bill Walsh’s “pro set” has all but disappeared from football. Wisconsin is as manballicious as Michigan if not more. I’ve got them down for 1.44 wide receivers per formation on 1st downs.

I was calling this formation “Ace Heavy” last week until while working on Hail to Old Blue it struck me it’s the Flexbone (yes, like Air Force):

Because Wisconsin’s a power running team instead of a triple-option outfit the running back is set far back, and “wingback” stuff is kept to jet sweeps. As I mentioned they’ll also put both wingbacks (personnel-wise it’s a fullback and either a receiver or Fumagalli) on one side, with a ton of pre-snap motion and all types of pulling to give the defense a ton of gaps to consider. Here’s a chart of 1st and 2nd down formations in the Iowa and Maryland games (removing 2nd and 11+):

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? And once again I’m offended by the question because you can be very manly…

okay yeah it’s MANBALL, though Wisconsin does run plenty of outside zone. Chryst knows what he’s doing and calls a very Harbaugh game: the counters come out as often as the main thing, and the counters have excellent counters. The run plays are about 50/50 gap or zone, with outside and inside zone mixed in equally. Power is the only play run more often than either zone, and then they have all sorts of jets and Isos and interesting folds, and as soon as you’re overplaying one thing they’ll hit you with a big bad thing.

This looks like another big ol’ country counter trey to the right until NOPE:

pancake delivered by that injured OC—like I said he’s a big deal

Hurry it up or grind it out? Grind. They huddle, get to the line, shift people around, go in motion, retract the motion, and false start a ton because young linemen can’t sit still that long.

Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Hornibrook gets a 2. He isn’t part of the running game, and when he scrambles he’s so slow to get going that he falls down. He’ll just throw the ball at the Fumagallizone if he’s under pressure.

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Dangermans:

How does a true freshman get a shield? If you know your Wisconsin running back history, I think Jonathan Taylor runs a lot like Anthony Davis, but will also charge through the line with the violence of Ron Dayne. He runs behind his pads like Terrell Fletcher, downshifts with the patience of P.J. Hill, has the one-cut vision of Corey Clement, keeps his balance like John Clay, can juke in a phonebooth like Michael Bennett, always falls forward like James White, stiffarms fools like Montee Ball, and has the instincts and athleticism to create his own gap, jet through it, and depants a safety that should immediately bring to mind one Melvin Gordon:

But he’s no Brian Calhoun: Taylor’s only caught three passes this year and they’ve all been extremely gentle screens. Sorry Lions; maybe get a fullback.

Jonathan Taylor’s only weak spot is ball security; he had two fumbles in the Iowa game (lost one) and another costly drop near his own goal line versus Maryland—in both games this brought clucking from announcers who’d seen similar in their prior games so this is indeed a thing. Taylor dances through traffic so well, but you can win back everything he just stole because he’s looking for his next cut and not thinking about his grasp:

The other star is tight end Troy Fumagalli, who’s going to be the top TE drafted this year unless they go with a guy with more athleticism because NFL scouts are dumb:

getting into 4th and short at midfield is a successful play

When the throw is inside Fumagalli slows, puts the linebacker on his back, and brings it in. He gives Hornibrook a wide window for success, and will get to a spot between defenders with such regularity that his quarterback tends to throw picks when his other receivers don’t do that.

I also said Harbaugh would be tempted to leap to the NFL just to gets his hands on Austin Ramesh. Watch the TD run by Taylor above again: Ramesh sees a blitzer, turns around and seals like a boss to create the gap that Taylor breaks through. Ramesh will also provide a more traditional brand of fullbackery:

bonk! (this was called back for a hold on backup C #78)

And as a runner Ramesh is powerful enough that an unblocked spacebacker is an RPS win for the offense.

Finally as for (I’m gonna try to spell without looking here) Beau Benszchawel, the only negative mark he got in either game on a run play was for leaving a combo’ed DT before Erdmann had him—if that combo was made however Benzschwatever had taken out both middle linebackers. When Biadasz was in that combo was getting made, and afterwards Benzschwalzmiel adjusted.

66 the right guard

I love this play—he’s engaged with the playside DT until he’s got the guy shoved 5 yards downfield, then just discards the chump because my runner buddy is here and we’ve got plans with other dogies downfield.

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HenneChart: Wisconsin runs so much it’s hard to get to 20 pass events in a game.  So here’re two games:

Opponent	DO	CA	MA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR	SCR	DSR
Maryland	2	13(1)	1	3x	1	1	-	2	-	74%
Iowa	3	7(1)	1	3x	1x	3x	-	1	-	58%

The Hornibrook experience is particularly difficult to chart. Balls that would be filed “DO” (on the run, facing pressure, 13 yards downfield to a receiver with a defender draped all over him) might float so long that the cornerback has a chance to intercept, then like a puppy unused to frisbees the CB mistimes his jump and first down plus a chunck. There were a bunch of throws I filed “CA” that probably could have been MA but Fumagalli adjusts so well to balls a little behind his stride that putting it where he can win a box-out is a better idea than having the ball in the air longer.

Throws to the 5’11” DEFINITELY NOT FUMAGALLI receivers are usually a bad idea and go badly unless the defensive back screws up. Passes like that usually come out so quickly that a cornerback or safety will do just that. The thing about Hornibrook is he’ll take a shot at small windows and occasionally hit it gorgeously by guessing a DB won’t make a play and throwing before the cut. Guessing wrong plus a lack of arm strength also leads to the highest interception rate in the conference: 

There were just three downfield events in that game, with two going the Badgers’ way. A fade to the endzone was left short but Iowa CB Manny Rugumba didn’t get his head around and mistimed his jump because he didn’t expect the ball to be in the air as long as it was—Pryor caught it on his way down. The other was a lob into the “turkey-hole”—the area on the sideline versus Cover 2 that’s behind the cornerback but not deep enough for the safety to get over #grudenisms—that juuuuust barely made it over Josh Jackson’s fingertip, a throw so perfect there’s no way it was on purpose (I forgot to clip it). 

The third was a deep shot where his receiver had a step and all the room outside, but Hornibrook tossed a ducky inside and short where White Iowa Safety could intercept. 

note the broken tendency graphic before the snap

Hornibrook’s downfield throws are dangerous to defenses, to himself, to you and me and much of the Virgo Supercluser because they hang in the air for so long. That might lead to a pick, but just as often it creates a catchable changeup that fools a cornerback into getting handsy too early.

Here’s the TAx in case you were interested:

Nobody open, knows the right tackle is going to lose AGAIN, dump off and punt…ERP! Is that a TA? Maybe PRx? INx? It’s bad is what it is.

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OVERVIEW:

shift, jet motion, tackle flare, find the gap

Michigan has yet to face an offense like Wisconsin’s, except when they do so every day in practice. The Badgers will go under center and run the ball as much as they can out of heavy sets, pressuring the defense to handle more gaps than any front was designed for.

Formations	Run	Pass	PA	RPO
Gun	6	16	2	-
I-Form	14	3	1	-
Flexbone	11	-	3	-
Ace	3	1	-	-
Heavy	2	-	-	-

Like Michigan they don’t have many good receivers available, those few are dropping like flies to injury—their best option with Cephus out is the true freshman Davis. So they’ve been using heavier sets, particularly the Flexbone, which lets the run game attack either side of the formation quickly. When they pass then it’s either a quick 3-step drop or play-action, unless they have to:

Down	Run	Pass	PA	RPO
1st	22	1	4	-
2nd	10	10	2	-
3rd	3	9	-	-

You’ll recognize this pass-averse approach from such games as every Michigan one since Speight got hurt. On 1st down they’re only in a shotgun if it’s a clock situation. On 2nd down it’s only if it’s long. On 3rd down they’re 75% shotgun, even on 3rd and 3, which gets Fumagalli singled up on the backside. The formula is simple: Taylor keeps them on schedule, and if they get into a sticky situation Fumagalli is there to bail them out of it.

It all makes for an offense that’s functional enough to burl over most opponents. Nobody knows what happens if they meet an elite defense because their schedule isn’t any better than a MAC team’s.

Date	Opponent	YPP	D S&P+ Rk	Result
9/1	Utah St.	7.03	59th	W 59-10
9/9	Fla. Atlantic	6.71	73rd	W 31-14
9/16	@ Brigham Young	7.22	51st	W 40-6
9/30	Northwestern	5.37	38th	W 33-24
10/7	@ Nebraska	7.06	89th	W 38-17
10/14	Purdue	6.96	28th	W 17-9
10/21	Maryland	6.77	85th	W 38-13
10/28	@ Illinois	4.73	69th	W 24-10
11/4	@ Indiana	5.50	30th	W 45-17
11/11	Iowa	5.70	19th	W 38-14

Iowa last week was the first top-20 defense Wisconsin has faced, but Iowa is a dedicated Cover 2 team that only turns up the heat for 20-year Ohio State events. Wisconsin mostly did to Iowa what they did to everyone else; the difference between that and Maryland was Hornibrook’s lily arm got tagged for two pick-sixes.

The last thing to mention is like every Chryst team Wisconsin is cheap to the max. This was on full display as the Iowa game caught the notorious O’Neill crew, who turned in a performance worthy of their reputation. That took the normal Badger hugfest to eleven and made it hard to judge things. Find the Wisconsin OL with his hands inside the guy he’s blocking.

The other cheap trick is, to nobody’s surprise, OPI. Fumagalli especially has push-offs down to an art form, and because the offense usually gets him matched against a safety or cornerback they’re particularly effective. So many of their completions are Fumagalli coming across the formation on a drag with a corner or safety in his hip pocket, Fumagalli will shove the little guy off, Hornibrook will put it a little behind, and the big body can collect.

In football that’s a foul; in the Big Ten it’s just not these days, and Wisconsin takes maximal advantage. Like our own, the Badgers’ offense will constantly stress the stripes’ willingness to flag minor offenses, and there may not be a home crowd in college football that’s better at applying pressure to let ‘em play. On a cold day with Camp Randall literally shaking for the biggest game of the year, they will. I recommend you use some alone time today or tomorrow be frustrated and homerish about it so your friends can stand you on Saturday.