Fee Fi Foe Film: Wisconsin Offense Comment Count

Seth

image

[Guest author update: Since I nailed Maryland’s offense and was certainly the main reason Minnesota didn’t bother to block Khaleke Hudson, I’m removing the cyan circle from imagearound myself. Also, as a wife in the comments pointed out, I was using last year’s weight. Still not Ace though]

--------------------------

It must have been very weird for Wisconsin when Gary Andersen was running zones out of ace formations using naturally born human beings from Earth. Having observed their bouts against Maryland* and Iowa, I’m happy to report things are back to normal in Madison again. Not only did they get the cheese factory that produces 6’6”/330 offensive linemen back online, but they’ve also made great strides in DNA splicing. We’ll talk about the three-assed “Watt-On” linebackers tomorrow. More frightening by far is what they’ve managed to come up with by combining every Wisconsin running back ever:

IT’S ALLLLIIIIIIIIIIIVE!!!!!!!! AND IT ONCE COMMITTED TO RUTTTTGEERRSSSSS!

*[Okay fine, I admit I looked past last week’s opponent. I take full responsibility for that 3rd quarter]

--------------------------

Personnel: My diagram expands to 1080p if you click it.

image

Wisconsin has some Dudes, and they’ve got some Pals, but precious few Guys. RB Jonathan Taylor is plausibly as good as Saquon Barkley, and given Michigan’s lighter defense he might be more of an issue. TE Troy Fumagalli is the best tight end in college football: an excellent blocker and Hornibrook’s primary target.

FB Austin Ramesh is projected to be the first round pick of the Chicago Bears when Jim Harbaugh takes over next year. Ramesh will sub in and out for a jet motion receiver, usually A.J. Taylor with Jazz Peavy out. As a nod to the last 80 years of football history Wisconsin always has at least one receiver on the field, and until recently that was Quintez Cephus, who was getting Fumagalli-level targets and catching them at a 79% rate (he was awesome vs. Maryland). Now Cephus has been replaced by true freshman Danny Davis, who’s averaging 13.6 yards per target with a 2/3rds success rate.

The line is getting Wisconsin-y but an injury to redshirt freshman C Tyler Biadasz could be a big deal. Biadasz, who’s listed as questionable, is thick and spry, and gave the Badgers’ power offense an extra dimension as they loaded up tight ends on one side to change the balance of the line then pulled Biadasz like a guard. When he went out against Iowa they skipped last year’s crummy starter, nominal backup OC Brett Connors (Jr*), for 6’6”/337 lug Jason Erdmann. The result was something like what you might imagine Ben Braden at center would look like.

If Biadasz can’t go, they could shift LT Michael Deiter back to center—Deiter was a star interior lineman the last couple of years but at tackle he’s Mason Cole minus a crucial notch of pass protection. The problem is like every other team in this conference they don’t have any viable OTs—RT David Edwards is Juwann Bushell-Beatty except not as consistent as a down-blocker—I ticked him for seven negative events in 20 pass plays versus Maryland’s crappy pass rush; very good Iowa DE Anthony Nelson turned Edwards-Beatty into silly-putty.

The guards are also 6’6” and Ben Bradenesque—RG Beau Benzschawel murders tackles and linebackers on downblocks and zone plays, and makes heady decisions when pulling. LG Jon Dietzen is a line-caver. The whole line is top-heavy and can be burled backwards.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown]

--------------------------

Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid? Seriously we need to replace “Pro-Style” with “Manball” because what they run in the pros today is a Joe Tiller spread and Bill Walsh’s “pro set” has all but disappeared from football. Wisconsin is as manballicious as Michigan if not more. I’ve got them down for 1.44 wide receivers per formation on 1st downs.

I was calling this formation “Ace Heavy” last week until while working on Hail to Old Blue it struck me it’s the Flexbone (yes, like Air Force):

Because Wisconsin’s a power running team instead of a triple-option outfit the running back is set far back, and “wingback” stuff is kept to jet sweeps. As I mentioned they’ll also put both wingbacks (personnel-wise it’s a fullback and either a receiver or Fumagalli) on one side, with a ton of pre-snap motion and all types of pulling to give the defense a ton of gaps to consider. Here’s a chart of 1st and 2nd down formations in the Iowa and Maryland games (removing 2nd and 11+):

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? And once again I’m offended by the question because you can be very manly…

okay yeah it’s MANBALL, though Wisconsin does run plenty of outside zone. Chryst knows what he’s doing and calls a very Harbaugh game: the counters come out as often as the main thing, and the counters have excellent counters. The run plays are about 50/50 gap or zone, with outside and inside zone mixed in equally. Power is the only play run more often than either zone, and then they have all sorts of jets and Isos and interesting folds, and as soon as you’re overplaying one thing they’ll hit you with a big bad thing.

This looks like another big ol’ country counter trey to the right until NOPE:

pancake delivered by that injured OC—like I said he’s a big deal

Hurry it up or grind it out? Grind. They huddle, get to the line, shift people around, go in motion, retract the motion, and false start a ton because young linemen can’t sit still that long.

Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Hornibrook gets a 2. He isn’t part of the running game, and when he scrambles he’s so slow to get going that he falls down. He’ll just throw the ball at the Fumagallizone if he’s under pressure.

--------------------------

Dangermans:

How does a true freshman get a shield? If you know your Wisconsin running back history, I think Jonathan Taylor runs a lot like Anthony Davis, but will also charge through the line with the violence of Ron Dayne. He runs behind his pads like Terrell Fletcher, downshifts with the patience of P.J. Hill, has the one-cut vision of Corey Clement, keeps his balance like John Clay, can juke in a phonebooth like Michael Bennett, always falls forward like James White, stiffarms fools like Montee Ball, and has the instincts and athleticism to create his own gap, jet through it, and depants a safety that should immediately bring to mind one Melvin Gordon:

But he’s no Brian Calhoun: Taylor’s only caught three passes this year and they’ve all been extremely gentle screens. Sorry Lions; maybe get a fullback.

Jonathan Taylor’s only weak spot is ball security; he had two fumbles in the Iowa game (lost one) and another costly drop near his own goal line versus Maryland—in both games this brought clucking from announcers who’d seen similar in their prior games so this is indeed a thing. Taylor dances through traffic so well, but you can win back everything he just stole because he’s looking for his next cut and not thinking about his grasp:

The other star is tight end Troy Fumagalli, who’s going to be the top TE drafted this year unless they go with a guy with more athleticism because NFL scouts are dumb:

getting into 4th and short at midfield is a successful play

When the throw is inside Fumagalli slows, puts the linebacker on his back, and brings it in. He gives Hornibrook a wide window for success, and will get to a spot between defenders with such regularity that his quarterback tends to throw picks when his other receivers don’t do that.

I also said Harbaugh would be tempted to leap to the NFL just to gets his hands on Austin Ramesh. Watch the TD run by Taylor above again: Ramesh sees a blitzer, turns around and seals like a boss to create the gap that Taylor breaks through. Ramesh will also provide a more traditional brand of fullbackery:

bonk! (this was called back for a hold on backup C #78)

And as a runner Ramesh is powerful enough that an unblocked spacebacker is an RPS win for the offense.

Finally as for (I’m gonna try to spell without looking here) Beau Benszchawel, the only negative mark he got in either game on a run play was for leaving a combo’ed DT before Erdmann had him—if that combo was made however Benzschwatever had taken out both middle linebackers. When Biadasz was in that combo was getting made, and afterwards Benzschwalzmiel adjusted.

66 the right guard

I love this play—he’s engaged with the playside DT until he’s got the guy shoved 5 yards downfield, then just discards the chump because my runner buddy is here and we’ve got plans with other dogies downfield.

--------------------------

HenneChart: Wisconsin runs so much it’s hard to get to 20 pass events in a game.  So here’re two games:

Opponent DO CA MA IN BR TA BA PR SCR DSR
Maryland 2 13(1) 1 3x 1 1 - 2 - 74%
Iowa 3 7(1) 1 3x 1x 3x - 1 - 58%

The Hornibrook experience is particularly difficult to chart. Balls that would be filed “DO” (on the run, facing pressure, 13 yards downfield to a receiver with a defender draped all over him) might float so long that the cornerback has a chance to intercept, then like a puppy unused to frisbees the CB mistimes his jump and first down plus a chunck. There were a bunch of throws I filed “CA” that probably could have been MA but Fumagalli adjusts so well to balls a little behind his stride that putting it where he can win a box-out is a better idea than having the ball in the air longer.

Throws to the 5’11” DEFINITELY NOT FUMAGALLI receivers are usually a bad idea and go badly unless the defensive back screws up. Passes like that usually come out so quickly that a cornerback or safety will do just that. The thing about Hornibrook is he’ll take a shot at small windows and occasionally hit it gorgeously by guessing a DB won’t make a play and throwing before the cut. Guessing wrong plus a lack of arm strength also leads to the highest interception rate in the conference: 

There were just three downfield events in that game, with two going the Badgers’ way. A fade to the endzone was left short but Iowa CB Manny Rugumba didn’t get his head around and mistimed his jump because he didn’t expect the ball to be in the air as long as it was—Pryor caught it on his way down. The other was a lob into the “turkey-hole”—the area on the sideline versus Cover 2 that’s behind the cornerback but not deep enough for the safety to get over #grudenisms—that juuuuust barely made it over Josh Jackson’s fingertip, a throw so perfect there’s no way it was on purpose (I forgot to clip it). 

The third was a deep shot where his receiver had a step and all the room outside, but Hornibrook tossed a ducky inside and short where White Iowa Safety could intercept. 

note the broken tendency graphic before the snap

Hornibrook’s downfield throws are dangerous to defenses, to himself, to you and me and much of the Virgo Supercluser because they hang in the air for so long. That might lead to a pick, but just as often it creates a catchable changeup that fools a cornerback into getting handsy too early.

Here’s the TAx in case you were interested:

Nobody open, knows the right tackle is going to lose AGAIN, dump off and punt…ERP! Is that a TA? Maybe PRx? INx? It’s bad is what it is.

--------------------------

OVERVIEW:

shift, jet motion, tackle flare, find the gap

Michigan has yet to face an offense like Wisconsin’s, except when they do so every day in practice. The Badgers will go under center and run the ball as much as they can out of heavy sets, pressuring the defense to handle more gaps than any front was designed for.

Formations Run Pass PA RPO
Gun 6 16 2 -
I-Form 14 3 1 -
Flexbone 11 - 3 -
Ace 3 1 - -
Heavy 2 - - -

Like Michigan they don’t have many good receivers available, those few are dropping like flies to injury—their best option with Cephus out is the true freshman Davis. So they’ve been using heavier sets, particularly the Flexbone, which lets the run game attack either side of the formation quickly. When they pass then it’s either a quick 3-step drop or play-action, unless they have to:

Down Run Pass PA RPO
1st 22 1 4 -
2nd 10 10 2 -
3rd 3 9 - -

You’ll recognize this pass-averse approach from such games as every Michigan one since Speight got hurt. On 1st down they’re only in a shotgun if it’s a clock situation. On 2nd down it’s only if it’s long. On 3rd down they’re 75% shotgun, even on 3rd and 3, which gets Fumagalli singled up on the backside. The formula is simple: Taylor keeps them on schedule, and if they get into a sticky situation Fumagalli is there to bail them out of it.

It all makes for an offense that’s functional enough to burl over most opponents. Nobody knows what happens if they meet an elite defense because their schedule isn’t any better than a MAC team’s.

Date Opponent YPP D S&P+ Rk Result
9/1 Utah St. 7.03 59th W 59-10
9/9 Fla. Atlantic 6.71 73rd W 31-14
9/16 @ Brigham Young 7.22 51st W 40-6
9/30 Northwestern 5.37 38th W 33-24
10/7 @ Nebraska 7.06 89th W 38-17
10/14 Purdue 6.96 28th W 17-9
10/21 Maryland 6.77 85th W 38-13
10/28 @ Illinois 4.73 69th W 24-10
11/4 @ Indiana 5.50 30th W 45-17
11/11 Iowa 5.70 19th W 38-14

Iowa last week was the first top-20 defense Wisconsin has faced, but Iowa is a dedicated Cover 2 team that only turns up the heat for 20-year Ohio State events. Wisconsin mostly did to Iowa what they did to everyone else; the difference between that and Maryland was Hornibrook’s lily arm got tagged for two pick-sixes.

The last thing to mention is like every Chryst team Wisconsin is cheap to the max. This was on full display as the Iowa game caught the notorious O’Neill crew, who turned in a performance worthy of their reputation. That took the normal Badger hugfest to eleven and made it hard to judge things. Find the Wisconsin OL with his hands inside the guy he’s blocking.

image

The other cheap trick is, to nobody’s surprise, OPI. Fumagalli especially has push-offs down to an art form, and because the offense usually gets him matched against a safety or cornerback they’re particularly effective. So many of their completions are Fumagalli coming across the formation on a drag with a corner or safety in his hip pocket, Fumagalli will shove the little guy off, Hornibrook will put it a little behind, and the big body can collect.

In football that’s a foul; in the Big Ten it’s just not these days, and Wisconsin takes maximal advantage. Like our own, the Badgers’ offense will constantly stress the stripes’ willingness to flag minor offenses, and there may not be a home crowd in college football that’s better at applying pressure to let ‘em play. On a cold day with Camp Randall literally shaking for the biggest game of the year, they will. I recommend you use some alone time today or tomorrow be frustrated and homerish about it so your friends can stand you on Saturday.

Comments

TrueBlue2003

November 16th, 2017 at 3:08 PM ^

And there is, of course, zero chance 5'8 walk-on Badger Jim Leonhard is from anywhere but a small town in Wisconsin, right?

Indeed he is from Ladysmith, WI, population 3,000.  Not a big city within 200 miles (Minneapolis).

Jim Leonhard in Orange County would fit about as well as Jim Harbaugh at a denim convention.

getsome

November 16th, 2017 at 2:09 PM ^

i dont see it, at least in terms of modern college game.  sure, the RB and WR are young but most everyone else on that chart took a redshirt and thats a big deal.  those 6 sophs are all 3rd year players, and thats fairly seasoned.  juniors or 3rd year players should usually know what theyre doing (more often than not).

its been the wisc model for years (among many others) to develop smart, tough kids over time and try to max out benefits of S&C, perfecting their schemes, etc.  if frosh or sophs are talented and consistent enough theyll obviously play.  but wisc often has elder options working thru the program

TrueBlue2003

November 16th, 2017 at 7:26 PM ^

When the FB and 2 TEs are in, they have only 4 Sophomores, all of whom redshirted so they're third year players.  That's not that young.  RB is by far the easiest position to plug in a freshman. The only other guy starting in that formation without three years in the program is the third string WR.  Yes, they do put a true Soph in for the jet action but that's a pretty fairly easily executed task (hence McDoom's immediate impact in that role last year).

Everywhere else they're 4th and 5th year players so I wouldn't call an offense with mostly 3rd, 4th and 5th year players young.

funkywolve

November 16th, 2017 at 10:22 PM ^

so many people on this board say UM's offense is young.  UM's offense has a boatload of 3rd year or more players.  The only position group that is really young is WR where Perry is the only one with at least 3 years in the program.  The oline has JBB, Cole and Kugler.  Bredeson's a sophomore but he's making something like his 20th start this weekend.  For the TEs Gentry, Bunting and Wheatley all have at least 3 years in the program.  Both the fullbacks, Poggi/Hill, have at least 3 years in the program.  RB has both Higdon and Issac  Evans, while a sophomore, was the second leading rushter for the team last year.  Peters is listed as a redshirt freshman but since he enrolled early he's only about 6 weeks away from starting his 3rd year in the program.  

mrkid

November 16th, 2017 at 1:09 PM ^

Is Hill confirmed out? Or is this an assumption at this point? It would be nice to see that the walking wounded are confirmed out or just questionable. 

stephenrjking

November 16th, 2017 at 1:18 PM ^

I don't like this matchup. Our defense is built to play spread offenses. Mone has been ok but uninspiring in limited run this year, and Solomon is a true freshman. Size is an issue here. And those guys are going to be stressed. If Wisconsin starts driving the ball our DL is going to get really tired, and there will be a lot of meat heading straight at Bush and Hudson.

Keeping Wisconsin off schedule is going to be absolutely crucial. About the only thing we have going for us here is that Wisconsin can't stretch the safeties deep. 

Jasper

November 16th, 2017 at 1:26 PM ^

I understand your concern, but remember:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Momentum

Devin Bush can move his 232 pounds (or so) pretty fast and he's low to the ground. I'd take him over 2015 Joe Bolden in this match-up.

- - -

Addendum: If my information is correct, their right tackle has gained 90 pounds since he was a recruit:

https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/2015/david-edwards-17510

Cheese curds?

TrueBlue2003

November 16th, 2017 at 2:51 PM ^

has gained 80 pounds since he was a generic three star ranked like 2000th as a 240 lber coming out of HS.  Now he's a first day NFL draft prospect.

And that's the Wisconsin way.  If anyone wonders how they're always so good despite "mediocre" recruiting, it's because they take a ton 6'4-6'6 footbawww players who are decent athletes knowing 18 year olds looking to be 300 lbs aren't even close to mature physically, they beef them up, get them in a couple years of college S&C and by the time they're 3rd and 4th year players they're just as good as those 300lb 4 and 5 stars that were only ranked highly out of HS because they were bigger earlier.

Since OL is such a highly leveraged position group on the football field, they do just fine with 3* WRs and QBs.

robpollard

November 16th, 2017 at 1:31 PM ^

Mone hasn't been great this year, but this is the team has 315 lbs of beef is built for -- if he can't contribute meaningfully here, that's our problem. Same with McCray (who's obviously better than Mone, but a Wisky game is his time to really shine). Heck, let's bring in 245 lb Wrobleski at times to spell people for a few plays-- if there's any game he is suited for, this is it.



The main weakness of this team is, as you noted, the safeties and the deep ball. I'm just going to be glad that shouldn't be an issue (fingers-crossed) and for the rest, we'll just have to MAKE PLAYS a couple times (e.g., like getting Taylor to fumble a couple times and recover it) and go from there.



When we breakdown things for the OSU game, that's when I'll really worry (as I think we all did vs PSU). But that's a problem for another time.

MadMatt

November 16th, 2017 at 3:55 PM ^

The wheel route to the one RB Wisconsin has that can catch the ball, which they have kept on the shelf all season long just for this game.

ARGH! It's getting so tiresome to be somebody's Superbowl every ding-dang game.  You would think that Michigan has gone to the B1G Championship Game every sea...er, even one time in its entire history.  Just once a year couldn't we be somebody's trap game?

TrueBlue2003

November 16th, 2017 at 3:09 PM ^

but he hasn't been close to as good this year as Wormley was last year defending the run because he makes more mistakes.  He gets upfield too frequently and we've been gashed a number of times because of it.  We're comparing a 5th year guy to a 2nd year guy so Gary should get there, and he's certainly physically capable, but he hasn't been nearly as good this year.

This will be a good test for him.  Because there won't be much reason to rush the passer.  Will be curious to see how well he's able to stay disciplined.

TrueBlue2003

November 16th, 2017 at 7:28 PM ^

if we go meat-for-meat here and pull Metellus or Kinnel (or second CB in 1 WR sets) for Furbush in a more traditional 4-3-4 with Hudson playing Fumagalli as the strong safety and Furbush as a third true LB.

At the very least, I think we'll see more Furbush for Hudson which is something we've seen some this year.  Blitzing will be much less effective in this game so pulling him for a LB will also get more beef on the field and Fubush has done a decent job on TEs iirc.

Firstbase

November 16th, 2017 at 1:23 PM ^

...but I think the game will hinge on two things. 1. The respective play of both QBs and can they have decent passing days. 2. Whether the officials will call an honest game without bias. 

Face it, there has to be pressure on the B1G to send a team to the college football playoff, and Wisconsin has the best chance of that. 

As such, I predict Michigan will need to overcome several egregious calls in order to win.

I also predict I'll be more upset by the officiating than I will the play of Wisconsin, good or bad. 

 

Monocle Smile

November 16th, 2017 at 1:37 PM ^

The OPI thing gets to me even more than the lack of holding calls, mostly because Michigan looks like it makes an effort to avoid it and yet gets called even for legal blocks.

Don

November 16th, 2017 at 1:39 PM ^

There have been more than a few games over the last decade where we have played against an allegedly banged-up or very inexperienced OL—I can remember at least two times involving MSU—with the expectations that our defense would throttle them, and the opposite seems to happen. I'm expecting that Biadasz will play like a Rimington Trophy finalist.

kehnonymous

November 16th, 2017 at 1:52 PM ^

I predict that there will be at least 1,572,636 comments in the game thread Saturday shreiking about uncalled holds against our D-Line and at least 80% of them will be legit and 100% of them will be profane.

The Man Down T…

November 16th, 2017 at 2:38 PM ^

in the newspaper.  (Yes, I did just radio carbon date myself).  On New Years Sunday, in the 8 panel cartoon she made a series of predictions like "A plane will be late to O'Hare" and "the local burger joint will mess up an order" and all.  In the last pane someone says, "Those are the worst predictions I've ever seen"  Her reply was "but accurate!".  

 

Yep, worst prediction ever but very accurate...

GordonG

November 16th, 2017 at 1:56 PM ^

..hate to see McCray out in space trying to keep up..

let McCray stay home for the interior mauling and Hudson run in space on Fumaglli !?