Can you believe it? An actual formidable opponent! I know Maryland straddled the line a few weeks back but Penn State is seemingly another level. 5-0 on the season, ranked #10 in the country, a test for the Michigan Wolverines that will tell us a lot about both squads involved. 

 

The Film: Penn State's schedule so far this season has not been the most difficult, which made choosing a game for this exercise tricky. Ohio and CMU are crossed off for being MAC teams and the Northwestern game is eliminated for the opponent being very bad and also having taken place during a monsoon. That left me with Auburn in week three and Purdue in week one. Neither of these teams are terribly close to Michigan in caliber, and Purdue is a step above Auburn. That led me to choose the Boilers, even though I don't love doing a game that took place a while ago (thankfully PSU has had good injury luck to make this translatable). Additionally, I felt Purdue's defense is a bit more similar to Michigan's given their strong run defense, compared to Auburn, who rank in the bottom third of the FBS in that metric and who got gashed on the ground by the Nittany Lions. 

Personnel: Click the chart for big or here for PDF. 

Sean Clifford will start at QB for Penn State for the fourth straight year against the Michigan Wolverines and is largely the same player he was last season. In the event that he gets injured, true freshman Drew Allar would be next up on the depth chart and he has played in several games this season so far. 

At RB, Penn State has made five star true freshman Nicholas Singleton the starter, averaging an impressive 7.3 yards per carry this season with 5 TDs. Fellow Tr Fr Kaytron Allen is #2 in the RB rotation, while returning veteran Keyvone Lee, who beat out Noah Cain for the job last year, has been demoted to #3. Devyn Ford, who flashed during the COVID year and played some early in the season, is no longer with the program. 

The WRs return two starters, Parker Washington and KeAndre Lambert-Smith. Those two were second fiddle to Jahan Dotson last season but Washington was already becoming a star himself and has solidified that status this season. Lambert-Smith was the #3 option in 2021 and that has not changed. He was injured early in PSU's game against Northwestern before the bye and it is unclear if he will be ready to go this weekend. Dotson's shoes have been filled by WKU transfer Mitchell Tinsley, who was an All-CUSA player in the Hilltoppers' pass-happy offense last season. Tinsley has become the #2 option in the WR room behind Washington. In Lambert-Smith's absence, Harrison Wallace III has gotten on the field but if everyone is healthy, the three main guys will be on the field nearly every snap. 

Penn State entered the season looking for someone to step up at TE and right now Brenton Strange has done that. He was PSU's favorite TE early last season before fading as the year went along. So far, so good in 2022 for Strange, the third leading receiver with 15 catches for 231 yards and a team-high 4 TDs. Part of Strange's success has been injury to his main competitor, Theo Johnson. Johnson has the more impressive recruiting profile but was banged up to start the season, making his season debut in week three and still didn't look fully up to speed. With the bye week behind him, I expect Johnson to be closer to full strength this weekend. Blocking TE Tyler Warren has gotten more snaps than usual with Johnson in and out of the lineup, but he does not have the dynamic receiving ability that Strange and Johnson can flash from time to time. 

The OL has been PSU's Achilles heel on offense for years now. They return just two starters from last year, RT Caedan Wallace and Juice Scruggs, who has slid from G to C. Wallace is still the turnstile he was last year, while Scruggs has done pretty decently moving to a new position. All new starters Landon Tengwall and Sal Wormley at guard have held up alright thus far, but a quality of competition adjustment is likely needed. The same can be said for new LT Olumuyiwa Fashanu, who appears to be better than the black hole that was Rasheed Walker, but Michigan will be a different beast than what PSU has seen so far. The backup OT is Bryce Effner, sometimes coming on as a 6th OL in beef packages, but he is a trouble spot. Hunter Nourzad, Cornell transfer, is the backup IOL. He got a little bit of play in the game I watched as well but I don't have many notes on him. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Different year, same thing]

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Spread, pro-style, or hybrid: Penn State is their usual spread offense selves, playing primarily out of the gun with 11 personnel that may see four or even all five skill position players lined up wide. Some QB run peppered in, plenty of WR screens and pre-snap motions, all that good stuff. Here's the formation distribution: 

Formation	Run	PA	Pass	Total
Shotgun	24	6	37	86%
Under Center	6	4	1	14%

Interestingly, though the gun is still the predominant formation used, PSU was playing under center far more often this season than they did in the past. Last year I charted just one under center play from them, compared to the eleven this season. Something to keep an eye on, I suppose. Here's the play distribution by down: 

Down	Run	Pass
1st	18	16
2nd	10	17
3rd	2	14
4th	-	1

Tilted a bit towards the pass in this game, especially later in downs. If I had done the Auburn game, the stats would've been skewed the other direction. PSU found success on the ground against the Tigers and built a sizable lead. The result is that they were comfortable staying the course there and riding the ground game. Against Purdue, they had little consistent rushing success and were engaged in a tight battle which required a two minute drill to win it, meaning that the passing game needed to get more use. 

Base set: Outside of specific short yardage downs, PSU operates with either 11 or 12 personnel on every play. They throw a number of different formations at you (where the TE(s) line up is the big kicker generally), so it's hard to say what their base set is but it probably looks something like this: 

The TE is in-line, three WRs split out wide (can be trips like this or on either side of the formation) and the RB in the backfield. This sort of look comprises the plurality of PSU's formations but it's a small plurality. Within the 11 personnel shell, they can go 4 wide: 

That's RB Kaytron Allen lined up as a WR to the top of the screen. If you flex the TE out, you get the 11 personnel, 5 wide look: 

The 12 personnel alignment flashes quite a bit and it can be seen in the following image: 

Generally speaking, either the TEs will be on both sides of the formation (like here), or they will be on the same side while the WRs will be on both sides. Running twins in 12 personnel was rather uncommon in the game I saw.

Finally I want to give a shoutout to this funky short-yardage formation that PSU used to run a QB sneak on the goal line: 

That's a sixth OL (Bryce Effner) on the left side of the line and blocking TE Tyler Warren on the right side. Then you've got TE Brenton Strange lined up in the backfield directly behind Clifford(!) and two RBs on either side of him, Singleton to the left and Allen to the right. They've actually used this a couple times this season, all on sneak plays. 

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL: Mostly Basketball On Grass in this game. It's not an every rushing down kind of thing, but zone concepts comprised the majority of their rushing plays, with inside zone having far more success than stretch. As in the past, that zone/arc zone stuff pairs well with the WR bubble screen game. They did have gap concepts built in, running counter a few times on the ground and they use power as a pass pro shell from time to time but mostly they are Basketball On Grass. 

Hurry it up or grind it out: Penn State does what most college teams do, get-to-the-line-and-wait-for-instructions. Last year they peppered in more tempo than I saw in this game against Purdue, so it's something to be cognizant of. That said, they sure as hell aren't Indiana from last week, and they also aren't slow as molasses Iowa from two weeks ago. A nice goldilocks middle. 

Quarterback Dilithium Rating (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Clifford's legs are pretty well known to Michigan fans who have followed PSU. QBs who can run a little bit is a feature of this offense dating back a half-decade, when Trace McSorley's legs played a central role in Joe Moorhead's RPO offense. I didn't see any designed QB runs in this game but they have called them in other games this season and I assume they'll trot one out for a marquee game like Michigan. Clifford's ability to scramble is on the scouting report and it hurt Michigan a couple times last season. There was one such example in the Purdue game on 3rd & 6: 

Clifford tends to have happy feet in the pocket, dancing around even when there isn't direct pressure getting home, and he's well trained on how to avoid it when it does get home (four years of experience with that). That lends well to scrambling on 3rd downs when contain breaks and there's a running lane. Clifford is not terribly fast but he's durable, willing to take a hit, and savvy on when to use his legs. I gave him a 6 last year and I'm sticking with that this year. 

Dangerman: There were several options here but I'm going to feature RB Nicholas Singleton, because he is someone that Michigan fans are going to hear about quite a bit over the next three seasons. The 5* true freshman arrived in State College ready for NCAA game action and has immediately made himself a formidable weapon out of the PSU backfield. Against a team like Purdue, that was causing all sorts of havoc for the PSU OL, Singleton got to flash an ability to get yards out of nothing. His stat line, 10 carries for 31 yards, seems ho-hum, but I saw clues that informed why he shredded Auburn two weeks later. Things like this cut and weave before lowering the shoulder to grind out the first down: 

Getting one yard with that blocking is an achievement for the RB. On this next one, Singleton is given a bit of a lane by the OL and the burst he shows is real to hit the hole: 

These clips, from his first NCAA game, suggested Singleton could be a major weapon if the OL gave him more space to run. That's what happened against an inferior run defense like Auburn, and he ripped off two long runs. This one: 

And this one: 

The only real hole in Singleton's game thus far is fumble problems against Northwestern, but in fairness to him, the weather conditions were likely the culprit: Keyvone Lee and Kaytron Allen each were on the hook for a lost fumble too in that nasty, rainy game. Allen has had a fine season too and Parker Washington was an option for this, but I feel like the most likely scenario for Michigan giving up a big play in this game involves Singleton, so I chose him. Not just did he rip off these two big plays against Auburn, but he had TD runs of 44 and 70 yards against Ohio. This is a home run threat. 

If some combination of PSU's OL winning a battle and Michigan's LBs being in the wrong place occurs, at that point, all Singleton's gotta do is take the right angle and put on the jets and it could be a house call. Michigan's secondary tackling has to be good in this game because Singleton is a weapon. 

HenneChart: Our old enemy Sean Clifford is back for one more spin. So far this season Clifford has posted a solid stat line, 62.0% completion and 7.5 Y/A for 9 TD and 2 INT. I have not seen much from him this year to suggest he is a different QB than the one he was last year. I don't think he's had that "the body is permanently broken" moment like Devin Gardner or Brian Lewerke, which is a good sign overall, but the strengths and flaws were all on display against Purdue. Chart: 

PSU vs. Purdue	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Quarterback	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	Screens
Sean Clifford	1	14	2		3	4		1	1	8	2		59%	7

I will also post Clifford's previous DSR metrics from FFFFs past: 2019 - 46% (vs Iowa), 2020 - 67%, and 2021 - 62%. Outside of getting hammered by Iowa in 2019, these DSR scores are all very consistent. Clifford is who he is. He's a QB who is fearless and ideal for an offense with leaky pass protection. He's not afraid to get hammered and is crafty enough with his legs to pick up first downs on the ground, extend plays on the move, and throw on the run to receivers who are improvising. Clifford performs better under pressure than your average QB and he's faced a lot of it over the year. He's good enough to drop a few dimes in but is also not the most accurate QB in the world, often culpable for a few really rough mistakes that sometimes end in INTs. A world-beater? No. A pretty good starter you can win 10-11 games in the B1G with? Yeah. 

If you give Clifford time, he'll deliver his fair share of pretty balls: 

If pressure is there, Clifford will launch it off his back foot. Sometimes those are inaccurate, and sometimes those are excellent: 

The game winning throw from Clifford was also nails: 

Perfect feel and touch on that ball to drop it into the arms of Keyvone Lee. There are plenty of clips from last year of Clifford delivering accurate balls right before getting clobbered. Like this: 

All of that is still present in Clifford's game. Unfortunately, what is also present is the wavering accuracy and questionable reads that have prevented him from ever reaching the upper echelon of college QBs. Plays like this: 

Has his man running open and just misses him.

Clifford's ability to read a defense has also topped out at "pretty good" but sometimes it leads to him spiking the ball into the dirt after there were multiple open receivers right in front of him: 

Penn State still asks Clifford to throw a lot of short stuff, plenty of screens but also slants and quick outs. He's generally very sharp in this area of the game and I actually felt that Clifford was better than his receivers in the game against Purdue. Several of the catchable balls he delivered were plainly dropped. The accuracy issues most often manifest when Clifford has to throw 10+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage. From that distance he's about as likely to deliver a great ball as he is to miss the receiver by 10 yards, and pressure plays a role in that. 

 

Overview

Penn State enters this weekend ranked 46th in SP+ offense, a significant bump up from last season's 72nd finish, but still not what you want given the level of talent on this roster. Both charting the Purdue game and watching highlight packages from other games this season, I found myself thinking that it's basically the same offense as last year, except that the pass protection and run blocking hasn't been quite as bad. They've been able to run the ball a little bit better and Clifford has not been under fire as much, but that is opponent dependent. The loss of Jahan Dotson has hurt to some degree, but Mitchell Tinsley has been a find and so I don't think there's a massive drop-off in the receiving game. The scheme is the same, so the coaching variable is constant. There's reason to believed that Penn State has improved some on offense, but whether that holds up against Michigan's defense is another story. 

WR Parker Washington could very well have been the Dangerman for this piece. He's a Dude. He leads the team in catches and receiving yards, getting to showcase what he can do without the shadow of Dotson hanging over him. The first Clifford clip is a ball thrown to Washington running open down the field, and he also features in the screen game. They ran one screen to him with orbit motion and also gave him a jet sweep hand-off: 

He is one of Clifford's top safety valves in third down situations. On this play they have the seam guy (Tinsley) run ye ole pick play vs. the corner in charge of Washington, giving him separation to run a quick out past the sticks for a first down: 

Washington is complemented well by the presence of transfer WR Mitchell Tinsley, who has seen his game translate to the B1G. Tinsley has 19 catches for 225 yards and crucially, three TDs (Washington has 0). Tinsley has three inches on Washington and often lines up outside, whereas Washington does a lot of his work in the slot. He gets his fair share of screens too, but I thought he was most dangerous running down the field. Tinsley was open on the INT and it was him that Clifford was targeting on the second clip I showed you in the HenneChart section, when Clifford rifled it off the back foot. Tinsley is that guy, the one who Clifford heaves it to when he's under pressure, whether Tinsley is open to or not: 

Sometimes you get a very questionable DPI call out of it. 

KeAndre Lambert-Smith is definitely the #3 WR behind these two and with the injury factored in, I don't have a ton to show you. I will say that he was a frequent recipient of the short stuff in this game: slants and screens comprised nearly every target that Clifford gave him in this game. Plays like this: 

I have no thoughts on the other WRs. 

That KLS clip and its woeful tackling provides a nice transition to talk about TE Brenton Strange, who was the beneficiary of Purdue's most Keystone Cops tackling moment in a game filled with them: 

This cannot happen. Strange had a so-so game on the ground as a blocker and besides two deep chucks (including the one above), he was also doing most of his work on drag routes or screens. I'm curious to see how his usage changes on Saturday with Theo Johnson back (presumably) fully healthy. Tyler Warren, the blocking TE, looked like a blocking TE when targeted: 

That ball was thrown by Drew Allar, who I should mention quickly. Clifford missed one drive against Purdue due to a medical situation and Allar came on. He went 2/4 for 26 yards, with the above drop being one of his incompletions. I thought he looked okay but as a true freshman in his first NCAA game, Purdue also had little scouting on him. He likely is only getting on the field against Michigan if Clifford goes down (which isn't a crazy scenario!). 

I've mentioned screens but haven't shown you many. Here is a couple to quench your thirst. One to a TE (Warren): 

And here's one to a WR (Lambert-Smith): 

Happy now? 

Finally, let's move to the RBs and OL. I already talked about Singleton, but his classmate Kaytron Allen looks pretty good too. He's a better receiver than Singleton is right now and though he didn't do much in this game, he has popped up in other games this season. Allen has flashed the ability to make tacklers miss and bounce off contact, an always essential trait for being a PSU RB in the Franklin era: 

Combine that with Keyvone Lee as the #3 back and the Nittany Lions have one of the deepest RB rooms in the B1G. Problem is, they only impact the game in a massive way when the OL gives them a chance. You saw in the Singleton clips from the Dangerman section that the OL were pushing the Auburn DL around in that one. Didn't happen as much against Purdue. Plays like this were too common: 

As was this: 

Against CMU (85th in rushing yards allowed per game), Auburn (T-100th), and Ohio (T-100th), PSU was able to rush for 5.2, 6.3, and 6.9 yards per carry. Northwestern's run defense is also bad but they held PSU to 3.8 with the weather effects clouding that game. Against Purdue (20th), PSU was held to 3.1 yards per carry. Michigan, for the record, is 4th in rush yards against per game this season. My theory on Penn State thus far is that against good run defenses, I doubt they will be able to run it much at all, but against weaker units, they have progressed to the point they can move bodies on the OL and the quality of RBs help produce big plays. 

In pass pro, the effort against Purdue was rather wobbly. PSU is only allowing 1.4 sacks per game this season (T-34th), which is a nice mark, but the signs of them having real trouble with good pass rushers again was evident. Plays like this: 

That's RT Caedan Wallace, who is still a sieve like last season, yanking a guy down and still allowing the EDGE to grab Clifford's legs despite the holding. The good news is that right now, LT Olu Fashanu looks like an upgrade on Rasheed Walker, who was just as bad as Wallace last season. On most plays, Wallace was the primary culprit when things went awry, but blitzes also had some success getting home: 

Purdue didn't blitz all that much and it should be noted that their sacks per game numbers are middle in the FBS. Losing George Karlaftis, they were not projected to have an elite pass rush and it appeared that way against Penn State. Even still, they were able to make life rather uncomfortable for Clifford. In that way, so much of this game, as it often does vs the Nittany Lions, comes down to the battle in the trenches. 

 

What does this mean for Michigan? 

When I look at Penn State's offensive performance in this game, I thought it was mostly fine. They didn't impress me in any way but they made enough big plays in the high-leverage moments, and benefitted from profound sloppy tackling by Purdue, to win this game. I didn't see anything to make me think they are much better than the unit that Michigan contained pretty well last season (holding PSU to 14 points) and as I mentioned in the preceding paragraph, a lot hinges on the battle of the lines. If Michigan is bottling up the run game like Purdue, it's going to hamper PSU's ability to do what they want. They'll have to throw the ball more and be put in longer passing down situations, where the pass protection can be exposed and Clifford's accuracy and decision-making may be iffy. 

Likewise, if Michigan is winning the battle vs the OL, those passing downs will become miserable and Clifford could end up with some drive-ending sacks. That's how Michigan suffocated the PSU offense last year and while early returns are that pass pro has probably improved at a few spots on the line, this will be a test for the Nittany Lion offense. We've seen Michigan face bad OTs this season and every one of them that I said "that guy ain't good", they've whipped said guy. They also whipped Wallace relentlessly last season and had success getting their blitzes home. If that continues, it's tough for me to see PSU having a great offensive day.

They're going to get some points and going to move the ball some; Clifford is capable of ripping off great passes and the skill position talent is legit. But if the OL doesn't support the whole package, it's going to limit how successful the PSU offense can realistically be. It's also nice to have played Indiana last week, because the bevy of screens that Indiana calls, combined with Bazelak running for his life, is an optimistic scenario for how this PSU game goes. In some ways, that Indiana offense resembles a mini-PSU over the last few seasons when PSU faces a good DL. Except, they move at a lightning pace and are, you know, Indiana.