nicholas singleton
At long last, a real team! After nine long weeks of drab opposition whose offensive FFFFs amounted to "will they move the ball? No", we finally have an opposing offense on tap that is mildly interesting. Of course, the Penn State offense haven't been world-beaters this season, apparent to anyone who watched the Ohio State-Penn State game live, but they are more talented and have far more weapons than any offense on the schedule previously. Get excited!
The Film: There's a very obvious game to go with here, the OSU-PSU game. Ohio State is one of the two best defenses that Penn State has faced so far and it is a far more recent game than the Iowa matchup, which was in late September. That made it an easy choice, but I also am going to drop a few clips in from the most recent performance for PSU against Maryland, as it was the Nittanys' best offensive showing of the season.
Personnel: Click for big.
Penn State's QB for this contest is Drew Allar, a 5* true sophomore out of Medina, Ohio. Allar's arrival at the helm of the offense was much hyped this season after spending the 2022 campaign studying under Sean Clifford. Allar played a few snaps in garbage time against Michigan last season, but this will be the first time since 2018 that anyone other than Clifford starts for PSU against Michigan. Allar is a big kid with a big arm whose season has been defined by a remarkably low average depth of target and general inconsistency. He will feature heavily in this piece.
The Nittany Lions return their two blue chip backs from last season, Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton. These two players were true freshmen last season when they edged past more experienced players to gobble up carries and this year they've owned the backfield all to themselves. Minnesota transfer Tre Potts is the nominal 3rd back, but he has just 20 carries to Allen and Singleton's combined 240. Of those 240, there's a near even split: Singleton has 121 and Allen has 119. The general consensus among PSU fans is that Allen's the more natural runner, backed up by his YPC clip of 4.8 to Singleton's 4.0. Both are talented players but their success on the ground has been constrained by anemic run blocking.
If there's one area of this offense that looks very different from your typical Penn State squad under James Franklin, it's the receiver group. The closest thing to the level of receiver star PSU once had is the Dangerman for this piece, KeAndre Lambert-Smith. KLS is a good player, but I liked him more on last year's PSU squad, when the Lions had two other talented receivers to pair with him in Washington and Mitchell Tinsley. This year KLS is the only show in town, 51 catches for 645 yards while the next closest receiver of any kind has 24 catches and 246 yards.
The other wide receivers besides KLS are particularly lacking, as the #2 and #3 receivers by catches/yardage are both TEs. The next two WRs on the depth chart below Lambert-Smith are Kent State transfer Dante Cephas and Harrison Wallace III, both of whom are extremely "meh". Dig deeper and it gets even thinner, with FSU transfer Malik McClain and Liam Clifford (brother of Sean) making next to no impact this season. Clifford played a decent bit in the game I charted and I felt he was dreadful.
In the absence of supporting cast help for Lambert-Smith, PSU has been forced to play out of 12 personnel often this season, leaning on starting TEs Theo Johnson and Tyler Warren. Johnson, one-time blue chip recruit that Michigan sought after out of Windsor, Ontario, has not made the leap many hoped for, with subpar PFF grades across the board and a negligible impact in the team's biggest game to date (against OSU). Warren has been a multi-year blocking TE, forced into receiving duty this season with more catches in 2023 than he had in 2021-22 combined. PSU rarely ever uses a TE beyond these two, but if they do it's Khalil Dinkins.
It's hard to discuss the PSU Offense's performance this season without honing in on the offensive line. After much offseason chatter about how Penn State would FINALLY HAVE A GOOD OFFENSIVE LINE, the bluster has (surprise!) not come to pass. LT Olu Fashanu has gotten considerable NFL hype but so far has only showcased that ability as a pass-blocker. At RT there may be the single biggest surprise of this OL, Caedan Wallace is not cyan'd after two straight seasons of doing so. The veteran appears to have improved by some amount, as he was not in the bottom two PSU OL against Ohio State (his PFF grades are solid too). However, is it really a good thing if Caedan Wallace is not one of your worst OL?
I would say no, because the interior of the line looks real sketchy. Following in the theme of the tackles, push on the interior in the run game has been close to nonexistent. Sal Wormley gets the cyan at RG, while the tandem of JB Nelson/Olaivavega Iaone at LG do as well. In defense of Nelson/Iaone, they are filling in after Landon Tengwall hung up his cleats and decided to medically retire in late August, forcing these two reserves into a competition to fill one spot on the line. Center Hunter Nourzad, a one-time Cornell transfer, narrowly avoids the cyan, but he was put on skates numerous times by the defensive tackles of Ohio State. As for reserves, if PSU needs a third tackle, Drew Shelton is the guy
[AFTER THE JUMP: less words more video!]
Can you believe it? An actual formidable opponent! I know Maryland straddled the line a few weeks back but Penn State is seemingly another level. 5-0 on the season, ranked #10 in the country, a test for the Michigan Wolverines that will tell us a lot about both squads involved.
The Film: Penn State's schedule so far this season has not been the most difficult, which made choosing a game for this exercise tricky. Ohio and CMU are crossed off for being MAC teams and the Northwestern game is eliminated for the opponent being very bad and also having taken place during a monsoon. That left me with Auburn in week three and Purdue in week one. Neither of these teams are terribly close to Michigan in caliber, and Purdue is a step above Auburn. That led me to choose the Boilers, even though I don't love doing a game that took place a while ago (thankfully PSU has had good injury luck to make this translatable). Additionally, I felt Purdue's defense is a bit more similar to Michigan's given their strong run defense, compared to Auburn, who rank in the bottom third of the FBS in that metric and who got gashed on the ground by the Nittany Lions.
Personnel: Click the chart for big or here for PDF.
Sean Clifford will start at QB for Penn State for the fourth straight year against the Michigan Wolverines and is largely the same player he was last season. In the event that he gets injured, true freshman Drew Allar would be next up on the depth chart and he has played in several games this season so far.
At RB, Penn State has made five star true freshman Nicholas Singleton the starter, averaging an impressive 7.3 yards per carry this season with 5 TDs. Fellow Tr Fr Kaytron Allen is #2 in the RB rotation, while returning veteran Keyvone Lee, who beat out Noah Cain for the job last year, has been demoted to #3. Devyn Ford, who flashed during the COVID year and played some early in the season, is no longer with the program.
The WRs return two starters, Parker Washington and KeAndre Lambert-Smith. Those two were second fiddle to Jahan Dotson last season but Washington was already becoming a star himself and has solidified that status this season. Lambert-Smith was the #3 option in 2021 and that has not changed. He was injured early in PSU's game against Northwestern before the bye and it is unclear if he will be ready to go this weekend. Dotson's shoes have been filled by WKU transfer Mitchell Tinsley, who was an All-CUSA player in the Hilltoppers' pass-happy offense last season. Tinsley has become the #2 option in the WR room behind Washington. In Lambert-Smith's absence, Harrison Wallace III has gotten on the field but if everyone is healthy, the three main guys will be on the field nearly every snap.
Penn State entered the season looking for someone to step up at TE and right now Brenton Strange has done that. He was PSU's favorite TE early last season before fading as the year went along. So far, so good in 2022 for Strange, the third leading receiver with 15 catches for 231 yards and a team-high 4 TDs. Part of Strange's success has been injury to his main competitor, Theo Johnson. Johnson has the more impressive recruiting profile but was banged up to start the season, making his season debut in week three and still didn't look fully up to speed. With the bye week behind him, I expect Johnson to be closer to full strength this weekend. Blocking TE Tyler Warren has gotten more snaps than usual with Johnson in and out of the lineup, but he does not have the dynamic receiving ability that Strange and Johnson can flash from time to time.
The OL has been PSU's Achilles heel on offense for years now. They return just two starters from last year, RT Caedan Wallace and Juice Scruggs, who has slid from G to C. Wallace is still the turnstile he was last year, while Scruggs has done pretty decently moving to a new position. All new starters Landon Tengwall and Sal Wormley at guard have held up alright thus far, but a quality of competition adjustment is likely needed. The same can be said for new LT Olumuyiwa Fashanu, who appears to be better than the black hole that was Rasheed Walker, but Michigan will be a different beast than what PSU has seen so far. The backup OT is Bryce Effner, sometimes coming on as a 6th OL in beef packages, but he is a trouble spot. Hunter Nourzad, Cornell transfer, is the backup IOL. He got a little bit of play in the game I watched as well but I don't have many notes on him.
[AFTER THE JUMP: Different year, same thing]
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