Fee Fi Foe Film: PSU Offense 2022
Can you believe it? An actual formidable opponent! I know Maryland straddled the line a few weeks back but Penn State is seemingly another level. 5-0 on the season, ranked #10 in the country, a test for the Michigan Wolverines that will tell us a lot about both squads involved.
The Film: Penn State's schedule so far this season has not been the most difficult, which made choosing a game for this exercise tricky. Ohio and CMU are crossed off for being MAC teams and the Northwestern game is eliminated for the opponent being very bad and also having taken place during a monsoon. That left me with Auburn in week three and Purdue in week one. Neither of these teams are terribly close to Michigan in caliber, and Purdue is a step above Auburn. That led me to choose the Boilers, even though I don't love doing a game that took place a while ago (thankfully PSU has had good injury luck to make this translatable). Additionally, I felt Purdue's defense is a bit more similar to Michigan's given their strong run defense, compared to Auburn, who rank in the bottom third of the FBS in that metric and who got gashed on the ground by the Nittany Lions.
Personnel: Click the chart for big or here for PDF.
Sean Clifford will start at QB for Penn State for the fourth straight year against the Michigan Wolverines and is largely the same player he was last season. In the event that he gets injured, true freshman Drew Allar would be next up on the depth chart and he has played in several games this season so far.
At RB, Penn State has made five star true freshman Nicholas Singleton the starter, averaging an impressive 7.3 yards per carry this season with 5 TDs. Fellow Tr Fr Kaytron Allen is #2 in the RB rotation, while returning veteran Keyvone Lee, who beat out Noah Cain for the job last year, has been demoted to #3. Devyn Ford, who flashed during the COVID year and played some early in the season, is no longer with the program.
The WRs return two starters, Parker Washington and KeAndre Lambert-Smith. Those two were second fiddle to Jahan Dotson last season but Washington was already becoming a star himself and has solidified that status this season. Lambert-Smith was the #3 option in 2021 and that has not changed. He was injured early in PSU's game against Northwestern before the bye and it is unclear if he will be ready to go this weekend. Dotson's shoes have been filled by WKU transfer Mitchell Tinsley, who was an All-CUSA player in the Hilltoppers' pass-happy offense last season. Tinsley has become the #2 option in the WR room behind Washington. In Lambert-Smith's absence, Harrison Wallace III has gotten on the field but if everyone is healthy, the three main guys will be on the field nearly every snap.
Penn State entered the season looking for someone to step up at TE and right now Brenton Strange has done that. He was PSU's favorite TE early last season before fading as the year went along. So far, so good in 2022 for Strange, the third leading receiver with 15 catches for 231 yards and a team-high 4 TDs. Part of Strange's success has been injury to his main competitor, Theo Johnson. Johnson has the more impressive recruiting profile but was banged up to start the season, making his season debut in week three and still didn't look fully up to speed. With the bye week behind him, I expect Johnson to be closer to full strength this weekend. Blocking TE Tyler Warren has gotten more snaps than usual with Johnson in and out of the lineup, but he does not have the dynamic receiving ability that Strange and Johnson can flash from time to time.
The OL has been PSU's Achilles heel on offense for years now. They return just two starters from last year, RT Caedan Wallace and Juice Scruggs, who has slid from G to C. Wallace is still the turnstile he was last year, while Scruggs has done pretty decently moving to a new position. All new starters Landon Tengwall and Sal Wormley at guard have held up alright thus far, but a quality of competition adjustment is likely needed. The same can be said for new LT Olumuyiwa Fashanu, who appears to be better than the black hole that was Rasheed Walker, but Michigan will be a different beast than what PSU has seen so far. The backup OT is Bryce Effner, sometimes coming on as a 6th OL in beef packages, but he is a trouble spot. Hunter Nourzad, Cornell transfer, is the backup IOL. He got a little bit of play in the game I watched as well but I don't have many notes on him.
[AFTER THE JUMP: Different year, same thing]
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Spread, pro-style, or hybrid: Penn State is their usual spread offense selves, playing primarily out of the gun with 11 personnel that may see four or even all five skill position players lined up wide. Some QB run peppered in, plenty of WR screens and pre-snap motions, all that good stuff. Here's the formation distribution:
Formation | Run | PA | Pass | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|
Shotgun | 24 | 6 | 37 | 86% |
Under Center | 6 | 4 | 1 | 14% |
Interestingly, though the gun is still the predominant formation used, PSU was playing under center far more often this season than they did in the past. Last year I charted just one under center play from them, compared to the eleven this season. Something to keep an eye on, I suppose. Here's the play distribution by down:
Down | Run | Pass |
---|---|---|
1st | 18 | 16 |
2nd | 10 | 17 |
3rd | 2 | 14 |
4th | - | 1 |
Tilted a bit towards the pass in this game, especially later in downs. If I had done the Auburn game, the stats would've been skewed the other direction. PSU found success on the ground against the Tigers and built a sizable lead. The result is that they were comfortable staying the course there and riding the ground game. Against Purdue, they had little consistent rushing success and were engaged in a tight battle which required a two minute drill to win it, meaning that the passing game needed to get more use.
Base set: Outside of specific short yardage downs, PSU operates with either 11 or 12 personnel on every play. They throw a number of different formations at you (where the TE(s) line up is the big kicker generally), so it's hard to say what their base set is but it probably looks something like this:
The TE is in-line, three WRs split out wide (can be trips like this or on either side of the formation) and the RB in the backfield. This sort of look comprises the plurality of PSU's formations but it's a small plurality. Within the 11 personnel shell, they can go 4 wide:
That's RB Kaytron Allen lined up as a WR to the top of the screen. If you flex the TE out, you get the 11 personnel, 5 wide look:
The 12 personnel alignment flashes quite a bit and it can be seen in the following image:
Generally speaking, either the TEs will be on both sides of the formation (like here), or they will be on the same side while the WRs will be on both sides. Running twins in 12 personnel was rather uncommon in the game I saw.
Finally I want to give a shoutout to this funky short-yardage formation that PSU used to run a QB sneak on the goal line:
That's a sixth OL (Bryce Effner) on the left side of the line and blocking TE Tyler Warren on the right side. Then you've got TE Brenton Strange lined up in the backfield directly behind Clifford(!) and two RBs on either side of him, Singleton to the left and Allen to the right. They've actually used this a couple times this season, all on sneak plays.
Basketball on Grass or MANBALL: Mostly Basketball On Grass in this game. It's not an every rushing down kind of thing, but zone concepts comprised the majority of their rushing plays, with inside zone having far more success than stretch. As in the past, that zone/arc zone stuff pairs well with the WR bubble screen game. They did have gap concepts built in, running counter a few times on the ground and they use power as a pass pro shell from time to time but mostly they are Basketball On Grass.
Hurry it up or grind it out: Penn State does what most college teams do, get-to-the-line-and-wait-for-instructions. Last year they peppered in more tempo than I saw in this game against Purdue, so it's something to be cognizant of. That said, they sure as hell aren't Indiana from last week, and they also aren't slow as molasses Iowa from two weeks ago. A nice goldilocks middle.
Quarterback Dilithium Rating (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Clifford's legs are pretty well known to Michigan fans who have followed PSU. QBs who can run a little bit is a feature of this offense dating back a half-decade, when Trace McSorley's legs played a central role in Joe Moorhead's RPO offense. I didn't see any designed QB runs in this game but they have called them in other games this season and I assume they'll trot one out for a marquee game like Michigan. Clifford's ability to scramble is on the scouting report and it hurt Michigan a couple times last season. There was one such example in the Purdue game on 3rd & 6:
Clifford tends to have happy feet in the pocket, dancing around even when there isn't direct pressure getting home, and he's well trained on how to avoid it when it does get home (four years of experience with that). That lends well to scrambling on 3rd downs when contain breaks and there's a running lane. Clifford is not terribly fast but he's durable, willing to take a hit, and savvy on when to use his legs. I gave him a 6 last year and I'm sticking with that this year.
Dangerman: There were several options here but I'm going to feature RB Nicholas Singleton, because he is someone that Michigan fans are going to hear about quite a bit over the next three seasons. The 5* true freshman arrived in State College ready for NCAA game action and has immediately made himself a formidable weapon out of the PSU backfield. Against a team like Purdue, that was causing all sorts of havoc for the PSU OL, Singleton got to flash an ability to get yards out of nothing. His stat line, 10 carries for 31 yards, seems ho-hum, but I saw clues that informed why he shredded Auburn two weeks later. Things like this cut and weave before lowering the shoulder to grind out the first down:
Getting one yard with that blocking is an achievement for the RB. On this next one, Singleton is given a bit of a lane by the OL and the burst he shows is real to hit the hole:
These clips, from his first NCAA game, suggested Singleton could be a major weapon if the OL gave him more space to run. That's what happened against an inferior run defense like Auburn, and he ripped off two long runs. This one:
And this one:
The only real hole in Singleton's game thus far is fumble problems against Northwestern, but in fairness to him, the weather conditions were likely the culprit: Keyvone Lee and Kaytron Allen each were on the hook for a lost fumble too in that nasty, rainy game. Allen has had a fine season too and Parker Washington was an option for this, but I feel like the most likely scenario for Michigan giving up a big play in this game involves Singleton, so I chose him. Not just did he rip off these two big plays against Auburn, but he had TD runs of 44 and 70 yards against Ohio. This is a home run threat.
If some combination of PSU's OL winning a battle and Michigan's LBs being in the wrong place occurs, at that point, all Singleton's gotta do is take the right angle and put on the jets and it could be a house call. Michigan's secondary tackling has to be good in this game because Singleton is a weapon.
HenneChart: Our old enemy Sean Clifford is back for one more spin. So far this season Clifford has posted a solid stat line, 62.0% completion and 7.5 Y/A for 9 TD and 2 INT. I have not seen much from him this year to suggest he is a different QB than the one he was last year. I don't think he's had that "the body is permanently broken" moment like Devin Gardner or Brian Lewerke, which is a good sign overall, but the strengths and flaws were all on display against Purdue. Chart:
PSU vs. Purdue | Good | Neutral | Bad | Ovr | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Quarterback | DO | CA | SCR | PR | MA | BA | TA | IN | BR | DSR | Screens | |||
Sean Clifford | 1 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 59% | 7 |
I will also post Clifford's previous DSR metrics from FFFFs past: 2019 - 46% (vs Iowa), 2020 - 67%, and 2021 - 62%. Outside of getting hammered by Iowa in 2019, these DSR scores are all very consistent. Clifford is who he is. He's a QB who is fearless and ideal for an offense with leaky pass protection. He's not afraid to get hammered and is crafty enough with his legs to pick up first downs on the ground, extend plays on the move, and throw on the run to receivers who are improvising. Clifford performs better under pressure than your average QB and he's faced a lot of it over the year. He's good enough to drop a few dimes in but is also not the most accurate QB in the world, often culpable for a few really rough mistakes that sometimes end in INTs. A world-beater? No. A pretty good starter you can win 10-11 games in the B1G with? Yeah.
If you give Clifford time, he'll deliver his fair share of pretty balls:
If pressure is there, Clifford will launch it off his back foot. Sometimes those are inaccurate, and sometimes those are excellent:
The game winning throw from Clifford was also nails:
Perfect feel and touch on that ball to drop it into the arms of Keyvone Lee. There are plenty of clips from last year of Clifford delivering accurate balls right before getting clobbered. Like this:
All of that is still present in Clifford's game. Unfortunately, what is also present is the wavering accuracy and questionable reads that have prevented him from ever reaching the upper echelon of college QBs. Plays like this:
Has his man running open and just misses him.
Clifford's ability to read a defense has also topped out at "pretty good" but sometimes it leads to him spiking the ball into the dirt after there were multiple open receivers right in front of him:
Penn State still asks Clifford to throw a lot of short stuff, plenty of screens but also slants and quick outs. He's generally very sharp in this area of the game and I actually felt that Clifford was better than his receivers in the game against Purdue. Several of the catchable balls he delivered were plainly dropped. The accuracy issues most often manifest when Clifford has to throw 10+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage. From that distance he's about as likely to deliver a great ball as he is to miss the receiver by 10 yards, and pressure plays a role in that.
Overview
Penn State enters this weekend ranked 46th in SP+ offense, a significant bump up from last season's 72nd finish, but still not what you want given the level of talent on this roster. Both charting the Purdue game and watching highlight packages from other games this season, I found myself thinking that it's basically the same offense as last year, except that the pass protection and run blocking hasn't been quite as bad. They've been able to run the ball a little bit better and Clifford has not been under fire as much, but that is opponent dependent. The loss of Jahan Dotson has hurt to some degree, but Mitchell Tinsley has been a find and so I don't think there's a massive drop-off in the receiving game. The scheme is the same, so the coaching variable is constant. There's reason to believed that Penn State has improved some on offense, but whether that holds up against Michigan's defense is another story.
WR Parker Washington could very well have been the Dangerman for this piece. He's a Dude. He leads the team in catches and receiving yards, getting to showcase what he can do without the shadow of Dotson hanging over him. The first Clifford clip is a ball thrown to Washington running open down the field, and he also features in the screen game. They ran one screen to him with orbit motion and also gave him a jet sweep hand-off:
He is one of Clifford's top safety valves in third down situations. On this play they have the seam guy (Tinsley) run ye ole pick play vs. the corner in charge of Washington, giving him separation to run a quick out past the sticks for a first down:
Washington is complemented well by the presence of transfer WR Mitchell Tinsley, who has seen his game translate to the B1G. Tinsley has 19 catches for 225 yards and crucially, three TDs (Washington has 0). Tinsley has three inches on Washington and often lines up outside, whereas Washington does a lot of his work in the slot. He gets his fair share of screens too, but I thought he was most dangerous running down the field. Tinsley was open on the INT and it was him that Clifford was targeting on the second clip I showed you in the HenneChart section, when Clifford rifled it off the back foot. Tinsley is that guy, the one who Clifford heaves it to when he's under pressure, whether Tinsley is open to or not:
Sometimes you get a very questionable DPI call out of it.
KeAndre Lambert-Smith is definitely the #3 WR behind these two and with the injury factored in, I don't have a ton to show you. I will say that he was a frequent recipient of the short stuff in this game: slants and screens comprised nearly every target that Clifford gave him in this game. Plays like this:
I have no thoughts on the other WRs.
That KLS clip and its woeful tackling provides a nice transition to talk about TE Brenton Strange, who was the beneficiary of Purdue's most Keystone Cops tackling moment in a game filled with them:
This cannot happen. Strange had a so-so game on the ground as a blocker and besides two deep chucks (including the one above), he was also doing most of his work on drag routes or screens. I'm curious to see how his usage changes on Saturday with Theo Johnson back (presumably) fully healthy. Tyler Warren, the blocking TE, looked like a blocking TE when targeted:
That ball was thrown by Drew Allar, who I should mention quickly. Clifford missed one drive against Purdue due to a medical situation and Allar came on. He went 2/4 for 26 yards, with the above drop being one of his incompletions. I thought he looked okay but as a true freshman in his first NCAA game, Purdue also had little scouting on him. He likely is only getting on the field against Michigan if Clifford goes down (which isn't a crazy scenario!).
I've mentioned screens but haven't shown you many. Here is a couple to quench your thirst. One to a TE (Warren):
And here's one to a WR (Lambert-Smith):
Happy now?
Finally, let's move to the RBs and OL. I already talked about Singleton, but his classmate Kaytron Allen looks pretty good too. He's a better receiver than Singleton is right now and though he didn't do much in this game, he has popped up in other games this season. Allen has flashed the ability to make tacklers miss and bounce off contact, an always essential trait for being a PSU RB in the Franklin era:
Combine that with Keyvone Lee as the #3 back and the Nittany Lions have one of the deepest RB rooms in the B1G. Problem is, they only impact the game in a massive way when the OL gives them a chance. You saw in the Singleton clips from the Dangerman section that the OL were pushing the Auburn DL around in that one. Didn't happen as much against Purdue. Plays like this were too common:
As was this:
Against CMU (85th in rushing yards allowed per game), Auburn (T-100th), and Ohio (T-100th), PSU was able to rush for 5.2, 6.3, and 6.9 yards per carry. Northwestern's run defense is also bad but they held PSU to 3.8 with the weather effects clouding that game. Against Purdue (20th), PSU was held to 3.1 yards per carry. Michigan, for the record, is 4th in rush yards against per game this season. My theory on Penn State thus far is that against good run defenses, I doubt they will be able to run it much at all, but against weaker units, they have progressed to the point they can move bodies on the OL and the quality of RBs help produce big plays.
In pass pro, the effort against Purdue was rather wobbly. PSU is only allowing 1.4 sacks per game this season (T-34th), which is a nice mark, but the signs of them having real trouble with good pass rushers again was evident. Plays like this:
That's RT Caedan Wallace, who is still a sieve like last season, yanking a guy down and still allowing the EDGE to grab Clifford's legs despite the holding. The good news is that right now, LT Olu Fashanu looks like an upgrade on Rasheed Walker, who was just as bad as Wallace last season. On most plays, Wallace was the primary culprit when things went awry, but blitzes also had some success getting home:
Purdue didn't blitz all that much and it should be noted that their sacks per game numbers are middle in the FBS. Losing George Karlaftis, they were not projected to have an elite pass rush and it appeared that way against Penn State. Even still, they were able to make life rather uncomfortable for Clifford. In that way, so much of this game, as it often does vs the Nittany Lions, comes down to the battle in the trenches.
What does this mean for Michigan?
When I look at Penn State's offensive performance in this game, I thought it was mostly fine. They didn't impress me in any way but they made enough big plays in the high-leverage moments, and benefitted from profound sloppy tackling by Purdue, to win this game. I didn't see anything to make me think they are much better than the unit that Michigan contained pretty well last season (holding PSU to 14 points) and as I mentioned in the preceding paragraph, a lot hinges on the battle of the lines. If Michigan is bottling up the run game like Purdue, it's going to hamper PSU's ability to do what they want. They'll have to throw the ball more and be put in longer passing down situations, where the pass protection can be exposed and Clifford's accuracy and decision-making may be iffy.
Likewise, if Michigan is winning the battle vs the OL, those passing downs will become miserable and Clifford could end up with some drive-ending sacks. That's how Michigan suffocated the PSU offense last year and while early returns are that pass pro has probably improved at a few spots on the line, this will be a test for the Nittany Lion offense. We've seen Michigan face bad OTs this season and every one of them that I said "that guy ain't good", they've whipped said guy. They also whipped Wallace relentlessly last season and had success getting their blitzes home. If that continues, it's tough for me to see PSU having a great offensive day.
They're going to get some points and going to move the ball some; Clifford is capable of ripping off great passes and the skill position talent is legit. But if the OL doesn't support the whole package, it's going to limit how successful the PSU offense can realistically be. It's also nice to have played Indiana last week, because the bevy of screens that Indiana calls, combined with Bazelak running for his life, is an optimistic scenario for how this PSU game goes. In some ways, that Indiana offense resembles a mini-PSU over the last few seasons when PSU faces a good DL. Except, they move at a lightning pace and are, you know, Indiana.
October 12th, 2022 at 5:27 PM ^
All Hail The Sainristil Star!!!
October 12th, 2022 at 8:33 PM ^
I bend the knee to our Short King
October 12th, 2022 at 5:33 PM ^
Interesting that Purdue was able to bottle up their run game. When they have to throw is when our pass rush will wreak havoc.
I expect some trick/wrinkle plays early coming out of the bye week. Hopefully they screw it up.
October 12th, 2022 at 6:43 PM ^
The argument is Singleton hasn't been a featured starting back at the time which is understandable considering he's a true freshman making his debut with PSU. I bet it'll be completely different if the game were to be played again today.
Singleton is easily the best opposing offensive player that Michigan will face all year outside of OSU where they have the usual top end weapons.
October 12th, 2022 at 8:58 PM ^
Not sure about “easily,” Chase Brown of Illinois is leading the nation in rushing. (Granted, his YPC is well short of Corum and Singleton, but Brown gets significantly more carries and has less of a supporting cast.)
October 12th, 2022 at 9:22 PM ^
You can only do so much as a RB without blocking in front of you no matter how talented you are. Against Purdue Singleton simply did not have holes to run through. I mean unless PSU's line is much improved in run blocking from that game there is no guarantee it would turn out any differently. PSU has only faced bad run defenses since so we have no idea if they improved or if that is simply a product of opponents played since. I thought Singleton looked like a really good back against Purdue just to get the 31 yards he did as the write up mentioned because the blocking in front of him and PSU's other RB's was atrocious in that game. Constant penetration into the backfield by Purdue's d-line and Mazi, Jenkins and Graham are definitely better than Purdue's interior guys. I expect to see those guys control the line of scrimmage and it will really come down to avoiding big busts on the couple of instances PSU gets the better of those guys.
October 12th, 2022 at 5:44 PM ^
That's RT Caedan Wallace, who is still a sieve like last season
We want more sacks! (Points at Caeden Wallace) Sieve! Sieve! Sieve! Sieve! Sieve! It’s all your fault! It’s all your fault!
October 12th, 2022 at 10:11 PM ^
I like that cyan at RT! Okie and Morris should have fun with that...
October 12th, 2022 at 11:53 PM ^
C'mong, mang. You missed one "sieve."
October 13th, 2022 at 11:18 AM ^
I thought it was two.
October 12th, 2022 at 5:51 PM ^
Finally I want to give a shoutout to this funky short-yardage formation that PSU used to run a QB sneak on the goal line
Looks like just a regular ol' T formation, except I guess an extra OL instead of 2nd TE.
October 12th, 2022 at 10:15 PM ^
The strange, unidentifiable offensive alignment turns out to be a T formation.
I am old.
October 12th, 2022 at 6:04 PM ^
Can we play just one good right tackle? We would love to know if we can actually pass rush or not before Ohio State
October 12th, 2022 at 6:25 PM ^
Michigan has a 5-star running back too. And one Blake Corum our 5-star runs behind. Edge - Michigan. We also have one of if not the best offensive lines in the country folks. Also, we have one of the nation's best defenses. Don't be fooled. This one will not be close. Michigan 27-10. Go Blue!!!
October 13th, 2022 at 12:56 PM ^
This is where I am too. You can look up and down that PSU lineup and there are not many places where you think "yeah, I would take that guy over our starter." Even their Dangerman Singleton, would you take him over Corum? So we are at worst even across many positions, ahead in some areas, and way ahead in the O-line. There will be some annoying moments, but unless we have a bad gameplan or an off day for some key players, we should be able to pull away in the end.
October 12th, 2022 at 6:27 PM ^
I saw this posted elsewhere but:
Singleton has rushed for 463 yards and 5 TDs on 63 attempts, or 7.3 YPC. Against Ohio and Auburn, Singleton had 5 carries go for a combined 269 yards (53.8 YPC). That means that his other 58 carries on the season have gone for 194 yards, or 3.3 YPC.
This feels like a game where if Michigan can avoid any big busts, they should shut down PSU's run game. Then you're putting it all on Clifford to win it with a leaky OL in obvious passing situations. Even if Michigan's offense struggles a bit vs PSU's D, that feels like a great situation for Michigan.
October 12th, 2022 at 9:06 PM ^
Our LBs had better be ready. Because we know from Indiana that opposing RBs can get past our OL.
October 12th, 2022 at 9:43 PM ^
Indiana rushed for a grand total of 80 yards, sacks removed (19, sacks included). It was a rushing Rutger.
October 13th, 2022 at 9:01 AM ^
Our OL should be on the sideline, so ok?
October 13th, 2022 at 9:12 AM ^
Obviously he said OL but he meant DL...
October 14th, 2022 at 1:16 PM ^
Our LBs are the position group on our team that worries me the most this season.
Hoping NHG can get back soon and improve the unit.
October 12th, 2022 at 6:41 PM ^
Does Clifford’s inconsistent accuracy waver from down to down, drive to drive, or game to game? We’ve already faced him several times; we’re not at risk of him suddenly becoming Unstoppable Throw God, are we?
October 12th, 2022 at 6:41 PM ^
The same can be said for new LT Olumuyiwa Fashanu, who appears to be better than the black hole that was Rasheed Walker,
If you mean to say that Walker was bad at protecting his QB, you probably need to switch your analogy from "black hole" to "wormhole"... i.e., the black hole sucks you in and traps you in a gravitational well until you collapse to a state of pure energy-- this seems like a good thing for a LT if he's the black hole and the DL is rushing toward him. However, if the LT is so bad that he literally tears a hole the fabric of space to allow the DL to traverse immense distances to the QB in a short period of time, then that seems pretty bad.
#MichiganMastersofEngineeringofSpaceSystemsDifference
October 12th, 2022 at 7:12 PM ^
More than you we need to know—or can understand—about wormholes and blackholes and quantum physics issue assholes, from the New York Times.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/10/science/black-holes-cosmology-hologr…?
October 12th, 2022 at 11:41 PM ^
I assume he is a black hole in the context that, well, he just sucks.
October 12th, 2022 at 6:45 PM ^
It'll be a good test for Michigan EDGE because LT Olumuyiwa Fashanu is already on the NFL radar as a draft prospect. If they can beat him to the QB, then stock goes up for Morris, Okie, etc.
October 12th, 2022 at 6:51 PM ^
Very concerning to me that Michigan has, at times, given up some chunk runs against otherwise meh competition. Maryland and Indiana aren’t dynamic running teams, but they found space at times.
One can argue that those were isolated instances and not consistent, and one would be completed correct. But Singleton is a guy who can turn another running back’s 15 yard gain into a TD. Or two. All it takes is a couple of bad plays, and we have the LBs to make a couple of bad plays.
Reminds me in a small way of MSU last year, where big plays were the difference.
October 12th, 2022 at 7:04 PM ^
I agree that this is the main concern going into the game. We will definitely need better second and third-level angles and tackling in this game than last week.
October 12th, 2022 at 8:05 PM ^
Maryland has a good to very good rushing offense. Indiana is terrible. Penn State will likely have some success on Saturday. How well Michigan does against the run will likely determine how sketchy things get.
October 12th, 2022 at 9:36 PM ^
I think Marylands running attack is more decent then good. I don't know what advanced stats say specifically about their run game but their overall rushing total ranks in the 60's. That number is buoyed by playing cupcakes like Chattanooga and MSU.
October 12th, 2022 at 9:40 PM ^
I mean yeah but the whole point of the write up was that PSU pumped up their running numbers against bad running defenses but struggled mightily against the only good rush defense they have seen to open up any holes. Singleton's YPC is pumped up from 5 longer runs against the bad run defenses they have seen. I honestly am not convinced PSU's offensive line is any better than Maryland's.
October 13th, 2022 at 10:29 AM ^
The only way that number is buoyed is if Maryland is the only team playing cupcakes. Just about every team plays some cupcakes though.
October 12th, 2022 at 9:07 PM ^
Exactly right, Comrade.
October 12th, 2022 at 11:50 PM ^
What’s your address so I can send some Xanax and/or beta blockers?
We’re past the “sky is falling, or if it’s not, it’s about to fall” stage of this program.
Even if he tears off a couple of TDs, that’s not going to be enough.
October 13th, 2022 at 8:12 AM ^
In Sam's show two explanation were given regarding DJ. 1) They were testing Cover 3 and weren't taking IU seriously. So, it will help in the future. 2) DJ has the speed to match the WR, but could get burned against a top level WR with similar speed because he has to turn his hip or worst he will get a DPI. So, they may adjust it back against PSU.
I am not trying to blame the stripping of shield, but DJ could very well become more versatile than before they are trying different things with them. I don't think any of us know including the writers what coaches have in mind for him.
October 12th, 2022 at 7:02 PM ^
After reading the UFR, I was wondering if Green would pick off Turner's star. Not this week. I'm hoping all three corners have stars by the season's end.
October 12th, 2022 at 7:03 PM ^
I know he doesn't have the cyan but I am worried about Junior Colson in this game. That's it really. It feels like that's the one advantage where they could potentially attack the edges of the defense if the LB discipline is not there
October 13th, 2022 at 11:47 PM ^
My question to Alex is, why doesn’t Junior have cyan? He’s a problem spot that has been exploited so far.
October 12th, 2022 at 7:11 PM ^
I see the names on PSU's roster and assume this is another top-10 offense but then you say they're in the 40's and I wonder why. This feels like a game where we'll see if UM can generate organic pressure because Clifford isn't going to bail like Iowa or IU when guys get close. But they're also not as creative as Maryland, and UM bottled that team up pretty well especially if you ignore that last drive when the game was decided.
Feels like this will be a game where both teams move the ball between the 20s and it'll depend who kicks more FGs vs. TDs.
October 12th, 2022 at 7:25 PM ^
PSU is just unable to sustain their success. They'd probably die against Iowa, who would force them to drive deliberately down the field. OL still kind of sucks.
October 12th, 2022 at 8:19 PM ^
Here is something else to look at Red zone offense.
In 5 games PSU has been in the red zone 20 times and scored 19 times with 16 TDs and 3 FGs. That puts them at 95% and 14th in the country
In 6 games MI has been in the red zone 33 times and scored 30 times with 24 TDs and 6 FGs.
That puts them at 91 % and tied with Umass and Rice at 25th in the country.
October 13th, 2022 at 6:58 AM ^
top-10 offense but then you say they're in the 40's and I wonder why.
Because their oline isnt good
October 12th, 2022 at 7:41 PM ^
The main questions for this game will be how will JJ McCarthy handle the pressure from the PSU defense with his limited time being a starting QB? Will MI run the ball more and not throw as much to help out McCarthy? Who will make more mistakes coaching this game, Jim Harbaugh or James Franklin? This is the first game in the B1G that will decide who wins the east division and the conference. The other games will be OSU at PSU on 10/29 and MI at OSU on 11/26.
October 13th, 2022 at 6:59 AM ^
He handled Iowa just fine. And yes, harbaugh runs the ball a lot, he'll continue to do so.
October 12th, 2022 at 8:06 PM ^
What does it take for Colson to get a cyan? If I'm PSU, I'm flooding his zone, optioning him, reading him, etc., until he proves he makes the right decisions.
October 12th, 2022 at 8:53 PM ^
Yep, I imagine they will do exactly that, and it's why the gloves will have to be off the offense for this game. I'm glad it's at home.
October 13th, 2022 at 11:25 AM ^
I thought they have been clear - Colson makes a bunch of mistakes but he also makes a number of plus plays to often come out even. He's a high event player but both ways.
October 12th, 2022 at 9:45 PM ^
Every PSU FFFF should have a cyan James Franklin.
October 13th, 2022 at 8:54 AM ^
I know this site likes to bag on Franklin, but the guy is a good coach (72-34 at PSU) and a great recruiter. Look at how many stars down (top 250 recruit) his offense has compared with UofM’s defense. The guy is really good at getting top recruits to come to play for him. Just for his recruiting alone I would not cyan the guy.
October 13th, 2022 at 9:41 AM ^
His in-game decision making is very questionable to say the least.
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