Coaching Search Time: Initial Candidates
Not Happening
Creighton's Greg McDermott leads this list. He signed a contract extension a week ago and said he wants to retire at Creighton. Nate Oats also just signed a contract with Alabama that will give him a top five salary in college basketball. Retired guys John Beilein and Jay Wright are also in this group, as I bet one dollar neither wants to come back and deal with the portal and NIL and whatnot. Michigan is deeply unlikely to poke around the NBA, in any capacity, after Howard went so wrong.
Tony Bennett… cumong man. Get real.
Probably Not Happening
Two up-and-coming P5 coaches have difficult buyouts. South Carolina's Lamont Paris looks like a natural fit: he was born in Ohio and spent eight years as a Wisconsin assistant. Unfortunately he just signed a six-year extension with a $12.5 million buyout. Iowa State's TJ Otzelberger has a buyout described as "hefty" that Jeff Goodman thinks will dissuade OSU from pursuing him so I'd imagine Michigan is in the same boat. The number out there is 17 million, but I can't find anything that confirms that.
Shaka Smart has done a great job at Marquette after some up-and-down years at Texas, but I think Brendan Quinn is probably right that Smart isn't going to leave a good Big East program that's probably a two seed to run it back as the second banana at a football power.
The opposite applies for Porter Moser. His three years at Oklahoma have been underwhelming.
SDSU's Brian Dutcher has had a ton of success with the Aztecs but he's 64 and may not want to spend a few years rebuilding the crater that is Michigan's roster when he could be having fun with a good program. Also the connection to Steve Fisher may still be a problem 25 years later.
Fred Hoiberg has Nebraska in the tourney after a long build but bringing the king of the portal to Michigan seems like a bad fit for both parties. Chris Collins: no.
Realistic Candidates
[Colorado State]
NIKO MEDVED, Colorado State. Medved took over a Larry Eustachy crater and immediately improved CSU from 224th in Eustachy's last year to 180th, 99th, 76th, and then 46th in 2022, the year when Michigan faced them in the first round of the tourney. CSU had an off year in 2023 but is back in the tourney this year with room to spare. Torvik has them as a 7 seed. An 10-8 conference record doesn't seem great but this year's Mountain West is more or less a power conference—it's the #7 conference in Kenpom, but their average efficiency rating is closer to the Big East (#2) than the A10 (#8).
Medved is an offensive guy first and foremost. His teams have been top 50 in two-point percentage every year he's been at CSU and they tend to have very high assist rates. That combination usually means a guy is scheming up excellent looks for his team. TO avoidance has been good, but not Beilein good. Speaking of:
Colorado State’s motion offense has become a must-watch for basketball junkies. The ball moves; there’s constant cutting and reads. It has elements of Johnny Orr’s spread, John Beilein’s 2-guard attack and Lennie Acuff’s version of the Princeton.
“Maybe one day it’ll be the Medved system,” Medved says.
He’s proud that this system is uniquely his.
That's from an Athletic article in which Medved offered a two-week deep dive on his program; it mentions that Isaiah Stevens, the point guard Michigan played in that game, stuck it out at CSU when he could have hit the portal:
“The main thing that has always kept me here was it’s hard to find people that genuinely care about you,” Stevens says. “My dad always told me there’s certain things money can’t buy, and that’s loyalty and relationships and faith and love. And I just feel like a lot of that has been built up here over my time.”
Medved, like everyone else in college basketball, has hit the portal for players but he's gone an unusual route: he's got two DII transfers and a DIII transfer in his rotation. The two DII transfers are starters with 121 and 118 ORTGs on ~21% usage in what is more or less a high major conference. Guy has an eye for talent.
[After THE JUMP: more mid-major guys]
DARIAN DEVRIES, Drake. DeVries took over for Medved after Medved's single season at Drake and after a couple of okay-to-good years he's taken off. Drake has been at or near the top of the Missouri Valley for four straight years, grabbing bids in 2021 and 2023, the former an at-large. This year Drake is 28-6 and headed for another 11-seed.
Devries's teams are Beileinesque in their turnover avoidance (top 40 the last four years) and have been fierce defensive rebounders while also being awful offensive rebounders. This is a positive since Drake has been around 300th in effective height over this period: the offensive rebounding is about a talent deficiency; the defensive rebounding is good coaching.
Before taking over Drake, Devries was a Creighton assistant for 17 years, so if you want McDermott Devries is McDermott At Home.
FWIW DeVries's best player is his son, who has a year left. You'd imagine he'd come along. Given the state of the Michigan roster anyone who comes with a top portal option attached looks a bit more attractive.
JOSH SCHERTZ, Indiana State. The other MVC dude. ISU is a remarkable 28-6 this year and has cracked the top 50 on Kenpom for the first time ever. Those rankings stretch back to 1997. ISU leads the nation in eFG and was fourth last year on the strength of absurdly good two-point shooting—59% and 62%. His teams take buckets of threes and have a sky-high assist rate. As mentioned just above, this is a signal that coaching is moving the needle.
Schertz has only been at ISU for three years; prior to that he was a D-II coach at Lincoln Memorial in Tennessee, where he won his conference nine of 11 years to end his tenure, made three D-II Final Fours, and had a 32-1 team when the tournament was cancelled in 2020. It's tough to tell if a D-II team has a natural advantage over the teams it tends to play; ISU has been a middling MVC program for decades, lending credence to the idea that this guy can coach.
DUSTY MAY, Florida Atlantic. Reached the Final Four a year ago and then got to run it back with more or less the same roster this year. Hasn't been quite as good this year, but "has Florida Atlantic at #35 in Kenpom instead of #17" is not a dealbreaker. Top 25 offenses the last two years.
May's issue relative to the guys listed above him is the length of his track record. He's been FAU's coach for six years; until last year FAU was a thoroughly mediocre CUSA team. The guys above him have had longer stretches of top-end play. May could have just got lucky with his current roster.
AMIR ABDUR-RAHIM, USF. Yes, Shareef's brother. Abdur-Rahim built Kennesaw State from a 1-28 team just transitioning from D-II in to a 26-9 team that made the tourney. USF hired him; the Bulls are 23-6 and won the AAC at 16-2. His tenure as a head coach is too short to draw any conclusions from Kenpom stats—I'm not holding his first three years at KSU against him but that just leaves this year and last.
MARK POPE, BYU. Has BYU at 10-8 in the Big 12 and in line for a five seed, according to Bart Torvik's algorithim. Had top-20 Kenpom teams in his first two years at BYU before falling off to .500-ish in the WCC. Before that had a successful four-year tenure at Utah Valley. Is a Mormon so might be a tough pull. He had some complaints about NIL at BYU a year ago, so maybe Michigan can convince him they're better equipped to get guys. (You know… if they are.)
Pope has the best teams, per Kenpom, of anyone on this list. His teams are not super consistent in any department but are consistently good on both sides of the ball. With limited exceptions all of his teams have been balanced.
PAT KELSEY, Charleston. Three bids in nine years at Winthrop, whereupon he moved to Charleston and rebuilt a program that was 9-10 the year prior to his arrival into a 31-4 team in year two, then 27-7 this year. Kelsey's teams play fast—top 60 in tempo going back almost a decade—and they crash the offensive boards; defensively they are all over the place but consistently clean up their own boards.
MATT LANGEL, Colgate. This is Langel's thirteenth year at Colgate; he inherited a 7-23 team and spent three years digging out of the hole. First he got the Raiders to 500-ish over a three year span and then he hit the gas. Colgate hasn't done worse than 12-6 in the Patriot League since 2017 and they've won it five of the last six years, with a second-place finish to Navy in the COVID year the only exception.
Langel's teams haven't quite had the extreme turnover aversion that Beilein's did but the running theme through his last six years is torching the next from three. They're only 81st this year but the last three years Colgate hit 40% from deep, finishing in the top three nationally. His system is three-heavy, as you might expect, but that's dropped off a bit in recent years. His teams now pick up buckets of assists and shoot well from inside the arc.
Defensively they've been a bit all over the place but they are good on their own boards and don't give up many free throws.
The problem with Langel is his conference. The Patriot League is 30th of 33 conferences in average efficiency. The leap from the Patriot to the Big Ten is vast, far more daunting than the Mountain West, MVC, or the AAC.
One Man's Ranking
The top three guys are in the "probably not happening" tier, but:
- Shaka Smart
- TJ Otzelberger
- Lamont Paris
- Niko Medved
- Josh Schertz
- Darian Devries
Of the guys who would definitely come, Medved is my guy. He performed well enough to get CSU an obvious at-large bid in a (more or less) high major conference this year with a couple of D-II transfers in the starting lineup. A couple years ago his star was David Roddy, a 6'4" power forward who was a first round pick in the NBA draft. He held onto Isaiah Stevens despite the fact that he was a grad transfer and could have made bank in the portal. In six years at CSU the worst he's ever finished in 2PT% is 43rd; every other year he's been top 25.
All of this adds up to a guy who finds weird talent, coaches it such that they take and hit a lot of twos—very repeatable—and has done it at a level that is as close to the level Michigan plays at as anyone on the "obviously realistic" list.
Certainly don't have to worry about waiting for him to lose in the tourney.....yikes.
That is such a shit list of candidates. More fitting of Rutgers than UM. Try this on for size instead:
1. Scott Drew (Baylor)
2. Chris Mack (free agent)
3. Wes Miller (Cincinnati)
4. Chris Jans (Miss St)
5 Dusty May (FAU)
I live in northeast Kansas. Nobody's mentioning Bill Self? Cumong man, take the guy. /s
Of course, the fact is, nobody wants him at Michigan either.
Mack flamed out at Louisville.
Miller has been worse at Cincy than both Cronin.
Jans is 16-20 in SEC play in two years.
May had middling experience at FAU before catching fire.
Drew is the only one without flaws on your list.
This list of candidates seems a bit underwhelming.
Pleased to see Medved on the list. His name came up a lot on Minnesota boards as the Pitino era ground to its inevitable end.
Whoever we get needs to be comfortable as a Basketball Coach at a Football School.
Earth shattering.
Thanks for generating this nice list. Personally, the more I've read about each guy, I like Devries the most. Midwest guy. His son is clearly playing well above his recruiting grade (D Jr has 2 MVC MVP awards - far more accomplished than anything Juwan's kids did here). Plus, absolutely no evidence his son taunts a trainer or is spoiled or hates to play D.
We get a BOGO deal if his son follows him here, as expected. He'd be the best player on our roster.
Overall, any of the guys above can win at UM. I'm not expecting a JB performance, but would expect at least some S16 and an E8 or two.
Next year's team will be lucky to make the NIT - not sure if there's a thread on who we'd actually want back after the team quit on JH.
Would Manuel even hire a coach? Wouldn’t he just see how the program plays out without one?
First, putting this here...page 2 (naming candidates; it's a rare moment when I feel almost as smart as BC).
Second, I was originally lukewarm on Medved, but may now be convinced. On Schertz, I feel like the Sycamores are too dependent on Avila, but I'll admit to only watching them a couple times. Regardless, a player like that can make a conference like the MVC his bitch (see potential candidate Bryce Drew).
Underwhelming and depressing list. Please no Medved, unimpressive resume. Would not be pleased if he is the hire.
What list would impress you?
March 17th, 2024 at 10:44 AM ^
1. Erik Spoelstra
2. Pat Riley
3 Gregg Popovich
4. Phil Jackson
There're options. Please close as soon as possible. Michigan is not the only team looking.
I assume there will be chatter during the watchmaking tonight. I would like to know if any other names are floated floating.
Whichever coach we get, I just hope the team goes back to being greater than the sum of its parts like it was under Beilein. Those teams were always so fun to watch and almost always went farther than they had any right to go. Give me a team that plays with high effort, some talent, doesn't Plaxico Burress themselves in the foot, and is watchable and I'll be pretty happy. MBB was a great asset to Michigan when the football program went through all those down years pre-Harbaugh.
I thought "initial" candidates would include LL Cool J and JB Smoove...
Bring in Dutcher and RAISE THE BANNERS if for no other reason than just that
Never heard of Medved, but sounds interesting. I like basketball that's fun to watch, which means either winning or a cool system. (Smart's "havoc" also qualifies.)
I'd be fine with a guy like Medved or Devries; I get more nervous about guys who have only coached at this level (and I consider good MVC and MW teams at this P5-ish level) for a couple of years, so that's my pause with Schertz even if I suspect he's a good coach (he also went from a team with the 358th-most playing experience to 125th, so some of his success may also be just guys getting older).
I still like Butcher and think SDSU's style would work well in this conference, but I agree the age element looms large. I don't want anything to do with BYU coaches; they are almost always playing with extremely old teams (even if the experience isn't as great) and I just assume they won't be a great culture fit at UM.
I thought Dutcher didn't want to coach Michigan because of what happened to Steve Fischer and the Fab 5? I read it somewhere that he has no desire to coach at Michigan \
Am I the only one that looks at this list and thinks "meh"?
Sadly, there is more luck in this than I think any of us would care to admit. Beilein had a good track record before coming to Michigan but he wasn't a slam dunk, electrifying hire by any means. Shows that there are diamonds out there and program fit is really critical.
The "second banana to football" comment is really spot on. It is much bigger hindrance here than I think any of us would care to admit.
Don’t sleep on Kyle Smith, the WSU coach. Really impressive numbers.
Brian. This post is great because we need to get people calibrated to fact that we are not getting anyone “good”. We are going to have to roll the dice on someone with little track record and see what happens.
If we get the Indiana State coach Les Cream Abdul-Jabbar come with him?
I like a lot of these names, sounds like a lot of good options. However, when I saw this picture when I opened mgoblog I for a moment thought Warde was fired. I guess a CC list is a decent consolation.
I'm sold-now make it happen.
Bummed that neither Dawn Staley nor Becky Hammon were even mentioned here.
let’s think outside the lines a bit here.
Dawn Staley was on the record saying she won't entertain any idea of coaching the men's basketball team.
Becky Hammon has coached at the professional level in her entire career plus there's that pregnant player comment issue. If you don't want a coach who has never coached the college level, scratch her off the list.
There's a reason why they're not mentioned.
Hammon is purely a pro coach. She’ll be coaching an NBA team before she’s in the NCAA.
Not certain he’s the best fit, but Hoiberg has coached at Iowa State and fucking Nebraska. Juwan has infinitely more NCAA tournament wins than Nebraska in its history. Maybe he’s relied on transfers out of necessity?
Odds are we will end up with Josh, From a couple ISU games I have watched his team fundamentals looked good. If Marshall was not abusive to his players, he did well at Wichita State. I met him at an auction in Wichita 12 years ago. He really liked Michigan. He seem like a nice guy but sometimes those nice guys are not nice at all.
Beilein clearly appears interested as Quinn and numerous other beat writers have already written that he would consider returning. They don’t mention that if he (or his agent) haven’t been talking to people. Doubt that Warde will drop his ego from how he left in 2019 to actually consider him, but it’s not out of the realm of possibilities coach B returns.
If we took Hoiberg I'd honestly feel bad for Nebraska. They've suffered in football and basketball for so long. Finally make the tourny and then steal their coach. That would be so Nebraska
Iowa State's head coach with the big buyout - doesn't look big to me at all as I wastch ISU demolish #1 Houston right now. ISU's style reminds me more than a little of Beilein... maybe it's because I'm remembering the good old days of beautiful execution and team play
I'm looking forward to Juwan Howard's next public event at UM. He deserves, and he'll receive, a huge ovation. He's a Michigan Man for life. I appreciated him coming back when we needed someone.
Didn't work out at all, and JH is partially responsible. But I believe he gave us his best. What a difficult time to go through with both his kids on the team. I imagined it more likely that he'd get a Natty, with his sons, and we'd watch it on 30 for 30
I wonder now if they'll instead make the documentary contrasting both legendary UM JH players who came back home as coaches at important times. One almost failed, but remained and became a champion. The other started on fire but crashed.
Harbaugh with the OSU battles. Rose Bowl and Saban's last loss. Legendary players with Hutch, JJ, Corum, Sainristril, etc. Juwan story has his health scare. Fab Five. His kids and conflict. This will be an intriguing and amazing story. I expect someone will do this well.
Ward says “thanks for the awesome research!”
So do I.
Earlier today my bride showed me an article that said JB was interested in coming back. I think he could be a good short-term caretaker but not a long term solution. Was Wes Miller mentioned? Currently at Cincinnati in B12. Over .500 there and his previous stop at UNC-Greensboro.
I'm not sold on FAU coach. He's playing with super-duper-seniors just like BYU's 30-year-olds.
So that's a no on Gruden or Payton???
FUCK
(all this shit is a guess - we hit gold with JB, you hire one and in 3 years he either hits or you send him to the moon. No one knows. With this effin crater of a program it's probably 4 years to turn it around even)
March 17th, 2024 at 12:25 AM ^
Beilein didn't hit in 3 years so I guess we should have fired him?
March 16th, 2024 at 10:27 PM ^
Kyle Smith from WSU. Just won pac 12 coach of the the year, probably wants to play in a real conference with a big school.
March 16th, 2024 at 11:13 PM ^
Shaka being 1 felt a bit odd, I think he's probably done with big football school pressure for now, and I'm not sure how crazy I'd be about the hire from our perspective either. As a Boise fan as well, Medved is definitely a great coach in a quietly fantastic conference, would not complain about him, but Otzelberger is definitely my first choice among realistic if unlikely candidates if he'd come AND we want to swing the buyout, and Parris same thing.
March 16th, 2024 at 11:27 PM ^
My intuition about coaching candidates is usually poor, but it's too bad that Otzelberger seems like a reach with the buyout. I think that it's very hard to tell who can make the transition from a smaller environment to a bigger one. And while Iowa State isn't Michigan, playing Kansas and other Big 12 schools is closer to a Big Ten level of pressure/scrutiny than coaching at Florida Atlantic or Colorado State.
That said, I agree that Medved seems like a good candidate.
March 17th, 2024 at 12:31 AM ^
OSU just went with the interim coach elevation, so I feel like their coaching "search" is not particularly instructive, as they could've afforded just about anyone and simply chose not to. That being said, I'd be disappointed if Warde didn't make a hard run at Otzelberger.
I think of that just like I thought of Tony Bennett when UVA hired him: knew almost nothing about him, but anyone who can take Washington State to the Sweet 16 is doing something right. Not only is Iowa State(!!) really good right now, they're really good in a conference that's playing lights-out basketball. Throw a bag at Otzelberger. A nice big one if you have to.
No thank you. Try again.
March 17th, 2024 at 10:38 AM ^
Great breakdown! Side note: something tells me if they had KenPom back then, Indiana State would have been a top 50 team when that Larry Bird guy was there
March 17th, 2024 at 12:35 PM ^
Why is Collins a “no?” He’s rebuilt and won at a more challenging BIG program than UM. And done it with at least as difficult transfer restrictions. Knows recruiting in the Midwest . He’s already a proven and successful P5 head coach vs a mid-major coach who has no idea what it’s like to play and win in a tough league. And he’s respected in the BIG already. What am I missing? Does he have baggage?
He just looks really annoying. And his court-side demeanor seems to fall in the Fran McCaffery school of losing one's shit awkwardly often for a grown man and professional.
Nevertheless, I tend to agree. Though he has had his down years, his record at NW is damn impressive. They had never made the tourney before he arrived. So I don't really want him to be Michigan's coach, mostly just on vibes, but I wouldn't hate it either. The guy can clearly coach.
Won't happen, but Steve Hettinga from Lake Superior State is a damn good coach. All-time wins leader at Lake State and can recruit. Just pulled an upset in D2 NCAA tourney yesterday with a match-up today at 5:00 to continue...
Guys play hard and love playing for him - great culture guy.
Will suggest it is harder to win at Lake State than Romulus as soft comparison to Oats. Yes, I understand Oats has won at two D1 schools so a very soft comparison.
He is well known in high school recruiting circles in Michigan as well...
Wish one of the MAC schools in the state would look at him so he could have a path similar to Oats. He is good enough to take them to an NCAA tourney...
Brian's point about sample size is important, but I figure he's underselling the prospects of Abdur-Rahim. Building a competitive program at Kennesaw State completely from scratch is really impressive. I would argue this is the most impressive feat accomplished by any coach on this list. And he has followed that with a very strong year at South Florida. Guy seems like a stud.
I'd like Michigan to take a big swing with a relatively young coach who would seem to have a high-ceiling candidate. This guy looks the part to me.
Honestly.....when you look at the stupid $$ being thrown around for coaches and assistants these days, is $12.5M for Lamont Paris really prohibitive? I mean...probably the best option to bag a long term success story and Michigan is anything but cash strapped.
Warde shouldn't even flinch at that if he can get a discussion going that looks like it could be fruitful.
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