Coaching Changes, Recruiting, and the "Harbaugh Experiment"
Note: I’m new here. I’ll be writing a couple posts each week this summer about football, hockey, and whatever other random stuff I think of. I’m also a senior sports editor and football writer at The Michigan Daily, where I’ve previously covered hockey and women’s basketball.
Beyond that, I’m a rising senior (*internal screaming*) at Michigan with a major in Economics and a minor in Writing. You can follow me on Twitter @BrendanRoose for incoherent rambling about football, the Red Wings, future Formula One world champion Yuki Tsunoda, and why transit-oriented development is the solution to all of society’s ills.
Is it telling that Brian asked me to write during what he has dubbed the “SUMMER OF TRASH”? Possibly. Do I have any idea what any of my content will look like? Definitely not. Will Yuki Tsunoda someday be remembered as the greatest driver to ever set foot on planet Earth? 100% yes.
Excited to get started. On to the real stuff…
The Harbaugh Experiment
One of the most annoying Twitter takes about Michigan’s struggles over the last couple years has been that it’s time to end the “Harbaugh Experiment.” Mind you, it’s not the “end” part that I take issue with — even if I don’t necessarily agree that Harbaugh should’ve been fired, it’s not an unreasonable take to have. It’s the “experiment” that gets me.
Jim Harbaugh was never an experiment in Ann Arbor. His methods were unconventional, but they were tried and true at Stanford and in San Francisco. In December of 2014, he was everything Michigan fans thought the program needed — a proven winner, a bona fide “Michigan Man,” and a supposed quarterback whisperer that turned the likes of Andrew Luck and Colin Kaepernick into two of the NFL’s most fearsome quarterbacks. Harbaugh was about as far from an experiment as Michigan could get. He was a sure thing.
Six years later, as Luck and Kaepernick have both left the NFL, so too have all of Harbaugh’s high-profile quarterbacks either transferred or underperformed. The on-field performances that readers of this blog know all too well have transformed December 2014’s certainty of success into an expectation of abject misery. Put simply, none of the circumstances that surrounded Jim Harbaugh’s arrival in Ann Arbor remain the same today.
Harbaugh, for his part, has recognized issues in his program over time and has worked to fix them. Some of his changes have been marginal — such as the regular reshuffling of position coaches and the slowdown of his social media presence — while others have been more major, such as the hiring of Josh Gattis and embrace of his modern offensive philosophies.
This offseason, though, has seen Harbaugh’s most significant gamble to date. Coming off his worst season ever as a coach — and a late contract renewal that cut his salary in half — Harbaugh realized that he needed new voices in the locker room, and with that realization, completely altered the way his program approaches recruiting.
Consider the circumstances surrounding the search for Don Brown’s successor at defensive coordinator. The nearly universal expectation was that Harbaugh would pursue an established name like Derek Mason or Will Muschamp.
But he didn’t. Instead of going for a safe hire that, in all likelihood, would have at least brought the defense back into the top half of the conference, Harbaugh decided to pursue two young position coaches with no play-calling experience — at least one of them, Mo Linguist, specifically for his recruiting acumen. When Linguist left for Buffalo, Harbaugh almost immediately nabbed Steve Clinkscale, another young coach with deep recruiting ties to the Midwest, to coach the secondary. That series of hires on defense reflects what could be the defining trend of this offseason: Harbaugh wants to recruit, so he’s hiring young.
Enter year one of the new Harbaugh Experiment.
It’s no coincidence that many of Harbaugh’s new hires have connections in areas where Michigan has struggled to recruit lately. Clinkscale and Ron Bellamy both have Michigan roots that should help establish a stronger in-state presence. Their efforts should be bolstered by Mike Hart because, well, he’s Mike Hart. George Helow brings connections in Florida, and even if Mike Macdonald doesn’t have much experience recruiting, odds are that his top priority won’t be 200 lb. three-star prospects from New England, so that’s a departure from the previous regime.
Linguist’s departure hurt, but hiring Clinkscale was pretty much the best-case scenario for Michigan. The post-Linguist staff has already passed its first test in keeping Will Johnson committed; whether it can maintain that success could determine whether the Harbaugh Experiment pays off.
[after THE JUMP: help on the way?]
Can better recruiting solve Michigan’s problems?
Ideally, Harbaugh would have done more to address the talent gap in 2018. But he didn’t, and now he has to confront both that and a development problem.
Zooming out and looking at the Harbaugh era as a whole, the defining characteristic has probably been his teams’ performances against Ohio State. In that regard, yes, the talent gap has been a major obstacle to Harbaugh’s success, and a recruiting overhaul could in theory lift Michigan over that hurdle.
The problem is, other teams are also getting in the way. From 2017 to 2020, Michigan ranked seventh, eighth, eleventh, and seventeenth in 247’s Team Talent Composite Rankings. Even if those numbers are trending downward (and probably not conducive to national championships), they should be high enough to consistently field a top two or three team in the Big Ten. They haven’t. In that same timeframe, Michigan State and Wisconsin — teams that Harbaugh is 3-3 and 2-3 against, respectively — have never cracked 247’s top 20. (If you’re a masochist and want to know Ohio State’s rankings, they were second, first, second, and third in that period. Try not to think about it.)
If talent alone was the problem, Michigan would not be struggling to handle less talented programs like Michigan State and Wisconsin. In 2020, Michigan had 41 four-stars on the roster; Michigan State had nine. Better recruiting won’t put Mel Tucker’s program in the rearview mirror. To do that will require better development and less predictable (and exploitable) schemes.
Still, that doesn’t mean Michigan’s new recruiting-focused coaches can’t dig the program out of the hole. Their age means they’re unproven, but it also means they can bring more energy to practice and connect with their players better. Based on the few media availabilities during spring practice, it seems the players have responded well to that (though I’d always take players’ evaluations of their coaches with a grain of salt). I’d also expect Matt Weiss is coming in with an understanding that his sole responsibility is to ensure J.J. McCarthy becomes the world-class quarterback he’s been billed as — something Harbaugh and Ben McDaniels couldn’t do with the program’s previous saviors at quarterback. If he can succeed, Michigan’s situation will improve dramatically.
What does this say about Harbaugh’s future at Michigan?
I’m of the increasingly unpopular opinion that extending Harbaugh was the right decision. The COVID coaching carousel was dull enough that, unless Matt Campbell was at the door asking for a job, there wasn’t really an alternative out there that’s worth tearing down the program for, especially with the financial and PR issues that would come with a coaching change during a pandemic.
Still, after the unmitigated disaster that was 2020, keeping the same coach inherently requires some new understanding on both sides. First, Harbaugh has to recognize he’s on a much shorter leash. Obviously, this observation isn’t anything new or world breaking — it’s reflected in the very extension that’s keeping Harbaugh in Ann Arbor. Nobody, least of all Harbaugh, thinks the current regime will last if things don’t improve soon.
On the other end, re-signing a coach that just went 2-4 requires an awareness that any possible resurgence from Harbaugh and co. will take time. So while the leash is still short — any season short of 8-4 or maybe 7-5 would almost certainly end with a coaching change — nobody within the athletic department can reasonably expect the team to win a Big Ten Championship in 2021. Right now, the focus should be on fixing broken systems, making meaningful progress, and laying the foundation for Michigan to re-enter the national conversation in 2022 or 2023.
Whether or not he says it out loud, Harbaugh understands this. A newfound emphasis on recruiting is a recognition that rebuilding his program will take a few years, and a sign that he’s willing to commit to that timeframe. So, while the athletic department’s patience with Harbaugh certainly won’t be limitless, the gamble he’s taken by hiring a young staff indicates that he thinks he has at least a little leeway.
Will the Harbaugh Experiment pay off? I have no idea. Even if Harbaugh’s fate is truly settled — and I don’t think it is — at least he hasn’t chosen to go the Dantonio route and doubled down on a coaching and recruiting philosophy that just doesn’t work anymore. Some people might see 2021 as a make-or-break season for Harbaugh. I don’t. As long as there’s some real, visible progress, and as long as the focus on recruiting looks to be yielding results, I think you have to give the Harbaugh Experiment — the real one — a fighting chance.
I will be calling you Broose.
I like this take, this is a good take.
Great read. I like your style of writing, and in my opinion, a more reasonable approach to Harbaugh. I think having more content like this is going to be great to read, and be much more entertaining than reading everyone saying to get rid of JH.
Welcome to the party.....I hope you are able to maintain some positivity on the site. Tends to get a little dark when basketball isn't in season.
One comment I would make about the coaching hires. While I think everything you said is true about targeting youthful, energetic guys who are tasked with fixing systemic problems with both recruiting and development.....it is also likely that those more established names like Mason & Muschamp has zero interest in joining a sinking ship captain'd by Harbaugh.
Personally, I'm looking for consistent signs of progress in addition to a winning record. Do we see players improving? Are we competitive? Do our schemes week-to-week seem coherent, consistent, and aligned to our personnel? Are we seeing the recruiting progress? Do some of the consistent signs of disorganization within the program go away? (Clock management, playing try-hards over higher-potential guys, shuffling depth charts, play action on 3rd and long, nickel defense on the goal line, etc.)
You're last paragraph says what I was going to say, so I don't have to say it again! I agree with every sentence. Show me these improvements and we'll figure it out from there. People that demand a certain record don't seem to be paying attention. There's no way any team, playing like the last couple of Harbaugh teams have played, is going to win 10. No fucking way.
I mean, I get what you're saying, but playing like the team did the year before last (on of "the last couple of Harbaugh teams") was good for 9 wins, so maybe we're closer than last year made us all feel?
Brendan,
I'm always looking forward to more Football & Basketball ! Please please don't use that fucked up overused term "BPONE" that seems to come up daily. GO BLUE !
Welcome! and i mean, he had two good races, one where he got points because Hamilton made a mistake and Verstappen had a blowout...but i'm on board!
Welcome to the family
If I can offer one piece of advice, always bet on jorts
I like your reasoned level approach. I hate much of the negativity about Harbaugh that exists on the blog, so your approach is welcome.
Welcome, very nice write-up. Really well done
welcome Brendan - a good start
Welcome Brendan.
I agree with your take and look forward to future content!
Welcome Brendan !
It is already clear you know your stuff.... and have endeared yourself to me just with the phrase "200 lb. three-star prospects from New England" .... I couldn't have said that better...
Welcome, looking forward to reading more!!
I think it would take an absolute disaster for Harbaugh to get fired next year. I’m fact, it would be administrative malpractice on Warde’s part to extend Jim after they clearly agreed on a rebuild. Hopefully it works out!
Welcome!
you had me until "Future Formula 1 champion Yuki Tsunoda" maybe in swearing LOL. welcome! Happy to see someone else enjoys F1. here for your entertainment...
Great article, way to start off strong!
Welcome, nice writeup!
why transit-oriented development is the solution to all of society’s ills.
Does this account for contractions in urban population, a shrinking tax base, and the loss of local services to long-time residents?
good stuff.
You guys are so dumb. It clearly pertains to physics.
Welcome aboard. Excited for another new voice.
I will always push back against the New England shots when they come to recruiting. Michigan's best defensive linemen under Harbaugh have come from NE (Hurst and Paye), and the NE guys have generally been as good as any other series of recruits. I'm fine with UM's recruiting approach going forward but NE recruiting always felt a bit like "moneyball" for the team and shouldn't be abandoned just so that UM can chase the 19th-ranked player from Ohio.
think Wino is from Pennsylvania too.. btw love your Diaries, ty vm for writing them!
Very well written. Thank you!
Great piece, man! I look forward to more articles from you.
That four star comparison to MSU (41 vs 9) is startling considering we lost. While I like the increased emphasis on recruiting as of late, it seems like coaching might also be kind of important.
Good work. More of this and less of whatever has passed for football content in the past few months. For example, the "Summer of Trash" bullshit.
Yes, please shut up the “this must be the year” crap on these boards. It’s long overdue.
The roster is depleted and the staff overhauled. It’s unrealistic for the upcoming season to be a success even if there was a hypothetical home-run hire and we nabbed him. There wasn’t.
Not that reality ever stopped a troll. Harbaugh’s job is safe enough that these table-pounders have no relevance, but they’ve been poisoning the boards in an effort to sabotage the program and it’s quite annoying.
I’m not happy with where the program is either, but crisssakes it’s not difficult to assess the current situation and realize Harbaugh’s our best option for at least the next few years unless Football Juwan Howard descends from the sky.
Really enjoyed this. Keep up the great work.
Good article.
Even if recruiting was the problem, it's not going to pull him out of trouble this year. That roster is just so thin-looking on difference-making talent. And agree that Harbaugh was never supposed to be an "experiment."
If/when the post-mortem is written, it might include the inability to settle on a philosophy on either side of the ball that we played and recruited to for the duration of the tenure. While it seems most offensive minds eventually bow to the superiority of modern spread, I really though the Stanford offense was going to work here given the recruiting possibilities. I thought it would be 2016 every year.
I disagree that the problem is failing to stick to a scheme. Quite the opposite, his offenses and defenses seem to regress to their most predictable and least creative shells until they become laughably (if you're an opponent) exploitable.
We got the Stanford/49er offense his first two seasons. It was smash mouth, but it was also creative and fun. Then we got whatever the hell they were running until it got so bad Harbaugh rolled the dice on hiring a guy who had never run his own offense before. Jury's still out on how that will end; the inexplicable suckitude at the QB position is complicating the analysis.
On defense, Brown was great at first, but he was completely unable to adjust his philosophy even when its flaws became so obvious a 14 year old Madden fan could have called plays to exploit it.
On balance Harbaugh has been making necessary adjustments about one season after the flaws became so obvious that the more alert members of this blog were calling for the adjustments to be made. The result is multiple "lost seasons," and a parade of every season (except his first) ending in consecutive losses of the two most important games on the schedule.
Nice writing. Do you block people on Twitter?
Thank you for the great content, Brandon!
Love your takes and mostly agree. 2021 will be measured in progress, not wins. And I think that's the right approach. Of course, going 4-8 pretty much means progress isn't happening. So even a 7-5 season where things start to look good can work IF we beat MSU.
Your last sentence hits it, and will define next year and JH. If he takes another L to MSU (41 four stars vs 9...wtf) ...that could spell doom for him. I mean, how do you go to bat for the guy again after another loss to them, I just cant see it.
We aint beating osu, so you HAVE to beat msu...just have to.
Welcome Brendan. Nice job.
Welcome - great first article...my opinion re: the coaches pretty much matches yours.
Looking forward to reading more of your stuff.
Excluding multiple overtime games against Indiana and Rutgers, Jim is 0-11 when the opponent scores 30. The vast majority of his wins have come when the opponent scores less than 20. The only thing that matters is whether he can figure out that trying to win every game with defense has a ceiling of mediocre and then remove this self imposed cap.
Unfortunately right now the recruiting focus is not working. Who UM has in the fold in 2022 is solid, however their prospects that seem interested to fill out the class are not the types that will give them a top 10 class. It will probably be more Iike top 20, which could be JH's worse class at UM to date. Simultaneously they probably need some signature wins to turn that around, but alas the questions abound at QB, CB, DT, etc will make that difficult. There is no doubt he needs to win to recruit and he needs to recruit to win. I don't like his chances here. It seems like too little too late and a few consecutive 6-8 win seasons and a few more kicks in the nuts from OSU will end the JH era.
GTFO of here with that reasoned, thoughtful, well-considered opinion. We only accept the hawtest of takes here!
Just kidding, really enjoyed reading your first work here.
Welcome and Go Blue!
Kaepernick was blackballed/forced out of the NFL for his political beliefs. He didn't just "leave." It's an important distinction.
Kaepernick walked away from a $10M ($14.5M?) contract option.
Injuries and having (according to cbssports) the worst statistical game ever by an NFL quarterback might have something to do with it. When Kaepernick and Harbaugh were new they had a good ten game run over two seasons before everyone figured out what Kaepernick could and could not do. (Harbaugh was calling plays that had not been run in 30 years.) His last season had him in the bottom quartile in raw QB performance (yards/TDs). Fancy stats had him as no better than 40th best QB for achieving yards or first downs with the game on the line (score closer than 8 points.)
The return of optimism, I love it. Seth was getting lonely.
Welcome. Great first post!
But did you make sure that writing here won’t jeopardize your amateur status at The Michigan Daily?
Excellent article and welcome!
I, too, agree that some of these changes with the coaching staff and the recruiting staff indicate this gives Jim more than only this season assuming they have reasonably good results.
Since Harbaugh's arrival at Michigan in 2015, I looked at the winning percentages of BIG10 opponents/rivals:
- Ohio State 68-8 (.894), 3rd nationally
- Notre Dame 57-19 (.750), 8th nationally
- Wisconsin 56-19 (.746), tied for 9th nationally
- Iowa 53-21 (.716), 11th nationally
- Penn State 53-22 (.706), 12th nationally
- Michigan 49-22 (.690), 17th nationally
A lot of people thought Harbaugh's presence in the BIG10 would shift recruiting and dominance back over to Michigan. Instead Michigan football is eating the dusty of Iowa and Wisconsin football programs. That's what's remarkable here.
Michigan is not dominant, but Harbaugh has pretty much return Michigan back to par.
By now I think we all know the chief ingredients to a Michigan football season, blindfolded:
- irrational pre-season team and player hype
- very good recruiting class nationally
- above average W-L performance on the field, some always confuse with elite
- "disappointing" loss versus usual suspects on the road: at Iowa, at Wisconsin, or choke job vs. MSU
- heart attack OT victory vs. goddammitt Indiana to bring everyone back down to earth.
- horrendous loss to Ohio State
- anti-climatic bowl loss in December/January
That's Michigan football pretty much.
What you guys don't get is, this was Michigan Football under Carr, under Mo and under Bo too. Your memory is just rusty.
So I look at the above, and I just don't understand why anyone today believes this new 2021 UM recruiting staff of "rabble rowsers" - no matter how young, enthusiastic, hip and persuasive they might be - are going to out-recruit Ohio State, Penn State or Notre Dame. Michigan has had "good" to "very good" recruiting already, but the above is the outcome.
What's needed here is more sarcasm, fatalism and alcohol.
Also, don't look now, but Michigan football recruiting is already getting Rutgered for 2022:
https://247sports.com/Season/2022-Football/CompositeTeamRankings/?Confe…
Realism, yes. Which I'm largely fine with - I mainly just miss getting home victories over OSU.
Your ranking of records over the Harbaugh era did get me to look at a couple others' and not that this means anything about anything, but Iowa has only played OSU once in that span. And won. No meaning attached, just thought it was interesting.
Nice first post Brendan and congrats!
I really like how you see things right now. It can be easy to get caught thinking "in reality this isn't year 1, it's year 7" but if anyone has every been in the situation where they've realized what they've been doing in the past isn't going to bode well for the future, then they'll hopefully understand that it's okay to have to "start over" in the middle of a tenure.
Very good first post Brendan. As many others have said I enjoyed your balanced perspective on the state of our football union and look forward to more of your writing.
Welcome to the Blog. And are we going to get t-shirts made for "Summer of Trash"? Asking for a friend.
Oh, and if Seth tries to get you involved in something he calls "Drafteggdon" for the love of God and all things holy DONT DO IT. It's a trap.
Well done sir!
I agree with your analysis that JH years 1-6 were not an experiment and the REAL experiment starts now. I don't disagree with the steps he has taken in the last 7 months, but I disagree with the trust placed in his hands to make these changes.
7-5 needs to happen in 2021, and I think that's about 50-50 to happen, personnaly. going forward, 10 wins should be the floor, otherwise what are we doing here?
Excellent inaugural contribution!
Reasonable, analytical, well-written.
Looking forward to more.
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