Observations from a review of Michigan-Purdue game film- John O'Korn Edition
As always, I proceeded to watch a replay of the Michigan game, with a certain intention in mind. For this week's Purdue-Michigan game, the target was obvious: the QB play. Let me preface this by giving you a hot take: I'm not sure if Michigan wins this game if Wilton Speight doesn't get injured. Seriously.
During the course of this season, I have been one of Speight's biggest defenders. Re-read my diary from last week and you'll see for yourself. However, watching those first three series, I've given up on Speight. On the 10 plays he ran in the game, Michigan gained just 12 yards. Running lanes were rarely opening, mostly because he is not a threat to move the ball through the air. As for when he dropped back, it was an erosion of the very thing that Speight has always had going for him: pocket presence. The first time Purdue sacked him, Speight had a wide open receiver and completely misread him and took the sack instead. His vision was bad, his pocket presence was bad, and his only throw down the field wasn't close to his receiver and was nearly picked off. There's no other way to say it: Speight was an absolute dumpster fire. A clear regression against the worst defenses all year meant he deserved to be benched anyway.
So after the injury, how did O'Korn do? Pretty darn fantastic. He went 18/26 for 270 yards, a TD, and a pick. Of the 8 incompletions, I counted 1 throwaway, 1 drop, 3 misses, and 3 strong PBU's. The interception was an accurate throw where a good PBU by the CB tipped it up. Not much he could do about that. Of the 3 misses, two were by a hair, and only one was blatant. Compared to the showing Speight has put up, it was heavenly. But about the 18 throws he made, almost all were pin-point accurate and on the day if we total it all up, 24 of 27 O'Korn throws gave his guy a chance, with the 1 throwaway. Speight couldn't dream of doing that. But most impressively, O'Korn's pocket presence was phenomenal, basically what Speight used to be. The evasion of the sack before stepping up to find Perry and the deep pass to Gentry while being targeted were two elite plays. His scrambling ability gives Michigan a dimension that Speight couldn't.
Then there's the basic fact the first five drives of the second half (punt after decent gain, Higdon fumble, TD, TD, TD) was the best 25 minute stretch of football has played all year. The defense held Purdue to 9 yards on 5 combined drives, while the offense gained 279 yards on 33 plays for 21 points, which is 8.46 yards per play. I ommitted the final four drives (two for each team) of the second half because offensively, Michigan was simply running out the clock. For the first time all year, Michigan's offense clicked. Offensive line is still a work in progress, but big running lanes finally opened because Purdue feared the QB's ability to throw it down the field, a first this season.
While Speight has completely lacked confidence, O'Korn played like a man on a mission, playing with total confidence, not fearing the pass rush, and making plays. I don't know how long Speight is going to be out, but I know one thing: unless John O'Korn self destructs, Wilton Speight should not play another meaningful snap this season. Yes, that's a hot take, but I'm just giving you the facts. Speight was given over three games to get things going and it never happened. He goes down and within a couple drives, the backup has things roaring. O'Korn has earned his opportunity to lead this team and Michigan can't mess around with a QB controversy. We have a bye week and then two games against lesser opponents to get the offense tuned up before Penn St.. There's no time to flip flop. Whoever the QB is needs to play the next two games and use first team reps during the bye to start to click. And who that guy should be is blatantly obvious.
September 24th, 2017 at 12:37 PM ^
It just seemed like sometimes, Wilton Speight needed the perfect situation to make a throw. When the play didn't go exactly as designed, he floundered.
September 25th, 2017 at 4:01 AM ^
It was hard to put a finger on it earlier, but O'Korn's play put the comparison in clear relief. Speight was hesitant and cautious. There were some reasons for this - the inconsistent o-line play, the two pick sixes in the first game, and maybe added pressure of being the leader of a young team. Compared to O'Korn's ability to just go "make plays," something was amiss for Speight. These things can be fixed, but as the OP says, O'Korn should have the keys now.
September 24th, 2017 at 12:38 PM ^
I like O'Korn going forward. His gunslinger mentality gives us the best chance at getting the ball in the hands of our athletic-but-inexperienced players, and his ability to deliver quick strikes while evading the sack gives us the best chance behind a young O-Line.
He looks like a completely different player this year, and I love it. I feel comfortable with him under center and trust in his ability to run the offense and win games. Suddenly, the rest of the schedule has gone from "terrifying" to "cautiously optimistic in our abilities", IMHO.
Go Blue, and on to beating the Spartans and the rest of the schedule!
September 24th, 2017 at 1:12 PM ^
This is nitpicking, but the interception was slightly behind Perry. The DB made a good play, but Perry probably catches it if the ball is 90%-100% accurate. Instead it was about 75% accurate, a little behind, and got tipped. I'm obviously making up numbers here, but you get the point.
O'Korn did play really well, and, given what I think is the nature of Wilton's injury, O'Korn should and will be our QB the rest of the way. He certainly brings a mobility that Wilton doesn't have. I will say, however, that I see why Wilton has been our starter. Wilton is safer, and Jim does not like turning the ball over. John made a throw our two yesterday that Wilton would not have and that would probably have been intercepted against a better team (the 1st down throw to McKeon in triple coverage comes to mind). This can be awesome when it works out, and people will hail O'Korn as gutsy. However, when he rolls the dice in the future and it doesn't come up in our favor, we have to remember that this is what you get when you pine for O'Korn.
John might more than make up for the risks he takes with great play otherwise, and he might be the best QB to lead us the rest of the way. I really hope he is, as he seems like a great guy with talent and I love that he stuck it out here after not winning the job immediately. Like Isaac and McCray, O'Korn will embody the "Those Who Stay" mentality. All I am saying is that, while O'Korn led this team very effectively yesterday, there were a few plays where I could see how Jim's conservative nature led him to stay with Wilton.
I'm looking forward to John's bye-week-bump and a win over MSU in two weeks.
September 24th, 2017 at 1:42 PM ^
However, he's done more harm to the offense than good this year. He makes receivers work for simple passes. I think O'Korn can be coached to be safe too while hitting easy targets.
September 24th, 2017 at 5:00 PM ^
September 24th, 2017 at 10:08 PM ^
tentative, with the offense becoming increasingly tentative around him. O'Korn playing balls out and--ENTHUSIASTICALLY--just seemed to galvanize everyone.
September 24th, 2017 at 10:46 PM ^
If Speight did not "play scared", he was overthinking and not trusting his instinct.
September 25th, 2017 at 7:02 AM ^
September 24th, 2017 at 1:59 PM ^
September 24th, 2017 at 2:13 PM ^
Agreed on the INT...his throw was a hair late and behind (although it probably had to be behind b/c it could have been intercepted cleanly otherwise), and Purdue was fortunate not get a defensive PI as the defender went through Perry before the ball got there.
Also agreed on that amazing throw in triple coverage.
O'Korn will turn the ball over more. He's also going to make more plays. IMO, with this defense, you need the offense to make plays, and trust the defense to back up the offense when it does derp. So far, they've done a great job of doing just that.
September 24th, 2017 at 2:19 PM ^
September 24th, 2017 at 2:30 PM ^
maybe his collarbone injury hurt him worse than could be predicted. maybe his confidence was shot. i dunno. but he's not the same qb from last year
September 24th, 2017 at 2:43 PM ^
He's been playing like a QB trying to avoid another collarbone injury by not standing in the pocket under pressure, throwing from his back foot to step away from the rush, and not using his feet to extend plays.
September 24th, 2017 at 6:19 PM ^
September 24th, 2017 at 5:12 PM ^
In my view, the DB committed pass intereference, essentially moving Perry away from the ball before it arrived (hence the ball was behind Perry) and picking it off.
September 24th, 2017 at 7:15 PM ^
upvote and agree. I saw it with binocs from Section 118 (NW endzone)
September 24th, 2017 at 10:39 PM ^
September 25th, 2017 at 1:16 AM ^
and while it was from behind the play, it made it very clear he hit perry before the ball got there.
September 24th, 2017 at 6:39 PM ^
September 24th, 2017 at 8:58 PM ^
A high school offense played well is superior to an NFL offense played horribly. Or at least that's what the last 16 quarters of Michigan football has taught us.
September 24th, 2017 at 9:42 PM ^
September 24th, 2017 at 8:54 PM ^
September 24th, 2017 at 1:45 PM ^
This is a tough one. I have always been in Speight's camp and I inherently do not like changing quarterbacks. I was 100% sure Speight would/should be our starter but I agree with a lot of what the OP has mentioned. Now I do not fault Speight as much for a lot of what has happened because I think our OL play and poor blitz pickup has really hurt the quarterback play. But I do see that O'Korn gives us a better fighting chance against these breakdowns. I will say the offense with the shorter quicker throws to the blocky-catchy types make our offense more efficient and something that Speight did not do as much. Not sure if this was by design/play call or him not looking for the checkdown.. or not surviving the rush long enough to get there.
One thing we don't see perhaps is how O'Korn takes care of the ball in practice. If he is making too many 'gunslinger' throws into traffic then the coaches may prefer a less risky, less dynamic Speight.
But O'Korn had an awesome day, overcame all the penalties and negative yards, kept picking up first downs and was a ton of fun to watch yesterday!
September 24th, 2017 at 1:57 PM ^
into a hostile environment, immediately leadng a long drive for a touchdown, and subsequently continuing to "shake pickles out of the jar," I would say he earned a chance to start. I admire Spieght and hope he is OK, but a meritocracy is a meritocracy and I trust Harbaugh to do what's best.
September 24th, 2017 at 2:09 PM ^
I have to wonder how much he was inspired by playing against a coach that had benched him in Houston. Glad to see that turned out well for him. Hopefully he can keep that momentum and attitude for the rest of the season; that was the best QB play we've had this year and I hope it keeps up.
September 24th, 2017 at 2:52 PM ^
September 24th, 2017 at 3:06 PM ^
The difference between how O'Korn looked and how Speight has looked for most of the year was night and day. Seemed like there was little to no hesitation in JOK's decision making. His throws were crisp, with confidence and very accurate. The best play to me was the pass to Gentry where JOK stood in the pocket, took a vicious hit (targeting penalty) and still made a throw that gave his receiver his chance.
Unless JOK completely shits the bed in practice the next week two weeks, I don't see how his doesn't start the next game. The second half of the Purdue game was easily the best the offense has looked all year.
September 24th, 2017 at 3:11 PM ^
September 24th, 2017 at 3:16 PM ^
September 24th, 2017 at 4:46 PM ^
September 24th, 2017 at 3:36 PM ^
The two biggest differences that I noticed were:
O'Korn sees his target and throws. Speight sees his target, thinks about it for a second and throws.
But I couldn't figure out why O'Korn was getting the ball to his target faster. I counted, not a big difference. 1 second maybe. Speight's ball just hangs in the air and O'Korn snaps it in.
Here is the big difference betweee Wilton Speight and John O'Korn.
Speight
O'Korn
Speight
O'Korn
Look at the way that elbow sticks out. When O'Korn thows the ball it snaps. When Speight throws the ball his elbow whips out and the ball hangs.
September 24th, 2017 at 5:08 PM ^
There were mechanical differences, but I think the bigger difference was O'Korn seemed to do 1 or 2 reads and then the ball was out. He made quick decisions and got the ball to his receivers quickly. That is something Speight didn't do, though I do wonder if perhaps some of it was a change in offensive playcalling once Speight went out. It definitely felt like O'Korn's mission was to get the ball out quickly, and he did a great job at that.
September 24th, 2017 at 5:55 PM ^
September 24th, 2017 at 3:48 PM ^
We have been running the Fraidy Cat offense for so long because Speight plays scared. Besides poor accuracy and lack of ability to make proper reads, he just plays afraid. Some call it playing smart footbally but it really isn't smart when you are so risk averse that you can't make a play. The fundamental problem for Speight is that he has a weak arm and has to have wide open receivers and perfect timing to make a play. The offense looked night and day with O'Korn in there. Suddenly guys were gtting YAC after being hit in stride. The running game opened up as the defense had to respect the pass.
All of this is why this change was long overdue and all the more diappointing that an injury had to force it. This should have been done long ago,.
September 24th, 2017 at 5:01 PM ^
Though not down on Wilt, I thought JOK displayed great field vision yesterday, and was very decisive. His scramble and completion on third and 6 deep in Michigan territory in the early 3rd quarter that ended up propelling us to the 86 yd. drive was most impressive. JOK's field vision and quick release yesterday reminded me a bit Sam Darnold. Sam makes a lot of plays on the run in part because of his unusual field vision, gifted receivers, and very mediocre offensive line. JOK was quite a playmaker yesterday.
September 24th, 2017 at 5:05 PM ^
O'Korn played great, but let's not ignore the fact that Purdue is by far the weakest defense this team has played all year. Coming into the game they had a defensive efficiency in the 60's; everyone else was 30 or below. And last year's Purdue defense was 107th; they look better, but this is still a team without much defensive talent and, as we saw with all the late hits, some discipline issues. Speight got about 2 drives against their team, for a total of 4 passes, and then he was out. O'Korn didn't really get put out there against Florida, Cincy, or Air Force, and while he did get that one nice throw against Florida, he also looked lost on the rest of that drive and it sputtered out pretty quickly.
I am fine with O'Korn getting another start, but claiming Speight shouldn't get another meaningful snap unless O'Korn feels quite reactionary. He has had close to 2 years to beat out Speight and he never did. Speight was the backup to Rudock, then he lost out as the starter spot, then he lost out again over this offseason. And it's not like Harbaugh had any predisposition to Speight at any juncture; he didn't recruit him. I am 100% happy if I'm wrong and this O'Korn is what he looks like on gameday forever and ever, but I have a feeling that against a better defense, one that had some time to prepare for him, he would look worse, and you'd hear the same people saying "bring back Speight" or "give Peters a start."
September 24th, 2017 at 5:23 PM ^
September 24th, 2017 at 6:47 PM ^
I think the whole offense looked out of sorts with Speight out there, and that falls on Speight. But as I noted, after that TD drive the offense looked pretty bad for basically a quarter of football as well. I actually think if the offensive line is going to continue to be as mediocre as it has been thus far, O'Korn has to be the QB because he can at least run away from pressure and keep them a bit honest with designed runs. But I absolutely do believe that Speight would have played better the longer that game went on, as you could see Purdue visibly give up as they got more tired and Michigan kept styming their offense.
September 24th, 2017 at 6:01 PM ^
Is that I struggle to see anyway JO'K could possibly look worse than Speight. I'm saying this as someone who has defended him over and over again. He has melted into a puddle. Point #2: Yes, Purdue has a terrible defense. BUT SPEIGHT COULDN'T MOVE THE BALL. Both Speight and JO'K faced a terrible Purdue defense. One guy looked worse than a Rutgers QB, the other guy led consistent TD drive and drove the team for over 400 yards of offense. There's no debate here. I've completely given up on Speight.
September 24th, 2017 at 6:50 PM ^
Speight saw three drives against Purdue. After O'Korn's really solid TD drive, it was pick, 3-and-out, 3-and-out, punt, then a fumble. It wasn't like the offense immediately clicked with O'Korn out there. It took the team playing better all around, with O'Korn being a big part of that, before the offense really got going. O'Korn had a great game. But on one side of the ledger we years of him being deemed worse than Speight by the coaches and observers, and on the other we have yesterday's game against a bad PU defense. I am fine being proven wrong, but I am not ready to crown him the presumed starter going forward.
I'd also like to point out that Speight led the offense to over 400 yards of total offense against both Florida and Cincy to start the year, two teams with defenses that I would comfortably say are better on defense than the Boilermakers.
September 24th, 2017 at 9:17 PM ^
First off, Speight didn't lead Michigan to 400+ against Florida. They gained 433 in that game and 37 of those were from an O'Korn pass.
Second, I don't care about what the coaches think or about 400 yards against Cincy. Only once this season has the offense ever clicked and played with consistency. And it was with O'Korn at quarterback. That's all I need. Plus, if Speight had looked good on those three drives okay. But look at my later screenshots. He was worse than a Rutgers QB on those three drives. No reads, no decisiveness, inability to do anythig productive
September 24th, 2017 at 10:35 PM ^
If you want to be pedantic, O'Korn also lost them 5 yards rushing in that game, so they just edged over 400 yards if you totally excise his involvement in that game. It's a meaningless point, but whatever.
I don't really get the point you are driving at here. Nobody is disagreeing that O'Korn played better than Speight did, and if we get a reasonable facsimile of this O'Korn going forward that's your QB. But he has had YEARS to displace Speight and he never has, and by most accounts he was never all that close. He looked really, really good against the worst defense they've seen this year, and that's great. But "he should always be the starter going forward" seems like a gross generalization based on a pretty small sample size. And "ignore what the coaches think or empirical evidence" is your right, but that's a weak argument to support your claims. I am admitting that O'Korn looked great in this game, but this hyperbole doesn't help at all.
September 25th, 2017 at 1:33 AM ^
let me first say that I absolutely think this is JOK's job to lose now.
But there are some sample size issues with this wild change in opinion:
1) Speight only played three drives and threw only 4 passes. Yes, it was bad, but Purdue was jacked up. They played like a lot of undermanned teams play at home when riding a high: really tenacious for a bit, until the fatigue and talent differential just overwhelmed them. As other have pointed out, other than the TD drive, JOKs other three of his first four were also pretty bad. The good ones didn't come regularly until the OL started wearing them down (and Purdue guys stupidly got themselves ejected).
2) He also no doubt benefitted from some excellent halftime adjustments from the coaches. It was reminiscent of the Florida game in which we struggled in the first half and then went back to some bread and butter TE crossing routes and blew the doors off in the second half. Speight did have a very good second half against UF.
3) I thought JOK played great, and I think he deserves to be the starter until he doesn't play great, which absolutely could happen. His best work came after halftime adjustments against a much weaker, fatigued opponent. We'll see if he's really turned a corner or not.
September 25th, 2017 at 4:39 PM ^
O'Korn played great, but let's not ignore the fact that Purdue is by far the weakest defense this team has played all year.It's so early in the season that I don't know how much stock to put into the rankings. PU has played three Power 5 opponents in four games, one led by the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. The same can't be said of Cincinnati or Air Force.
September 24th, 2017 at 5:31 PM ^
This year's version of Speight has none. Maybe it was the trauma of two pick-6's in the first half of his first game, maybe it is lingering doubts about his collarbone, but for whatever reason Speight was playing scared. He hardly dared throw the ball in the middle of the field, and sometimes even inbounds.
The thing I noticed most about O'Korn was his decisiveness. He read the coverage, looked for his guy, and threw the ball without hesitation. I don't think the receivers suddenly learned how to get separation after Speight went out--I think O'Korn was just throwing to them when they were open, instead of hesitating (out of fear) and throwing late.
Quick passing requires a quick pass, and Speight seemed incapable of that. Because Speight was holding on to the ball so long, afraid to throw it, Michigan was forced to commit extra blockers to protect him while he scanned the field. The mass of humanity engaging at the LOS was confusing to our young O-Line, and one or two rushers inevitably snuck through, making Speight even more nervous. It was a passing attack that couldn't help but fail.
But with O'Korn making quick decisions it was no longer necessary to keep 6-7 guys in to block. Instead, Harbaugh could send those TEs and backs out in patterns, keeping the defense honest. If the defense wants to blitz with 7, they'll now run the risk of leaving someone comnpletely uncovered, and there's a good chance O'Korn will recognize it and get him the ball. This was exactly what happened on the long completiong to Gentry near the goal line.
September 24th, 2017 at 5:39 PM ^
I don't see how there can be an objective QB controversy. What there might be is a "meritocracy" controversy.
One guy has had 13 quarters to get the offense out of sputter mode and didn't.
The other guy gave us one good quarter and two excellent quarters of an offense that looked entirely different: Drove the ball, was red-zone perfect, and delivered a decisive win, dominating the 2nd half.
If that's not enough to "merit" the next start, then I'm not sure I'm buying the meritocracy thing.
September 24th, 2017 at 5:59 PM ^
The replay angles were very tight this week, again, but it looked like Perry was crossing to the left and turned back to the right when O'korn spun. If that was indeed what happened, it just shows what happens when a WR knows what to do in a scrable drill.
On another note, the blocking in the first half was pretty bad whike Purdue did not respect the passing and just loaded the box and blitzed a bunch on passing downs. How much, if at all, did you see this change in the second?
September 24th, 2017 at 6:01 PM ^
September 24th, 2017 at 6:05 PM ^
They played it pretty safe with O'Korn but he moved the ball. If he plays the whole game they probably score 40+. Purdue has a terrible defense for sure, but the fact that Michigan was finally able to take advantage of a bad defense is huge.
Comments