Washington likely our opponent. Penix has incredible touch. Thoughts?
Hard to root against Washington. And thank you for taking out one of the all-time coaching frauds Steve Sarkisian. UW, much like UM, has been underestimated all year. And yet they are 14-0 and obviously an elite team. They're hard to figure out. Other than Penix, they don't seem outstanding anywhere, and yet they win. They have been in relative control all night against a Texas team that many thought was the best in the country.
January 2nd, 2024 at 12:28 AM ^
Shut down Odunze, which I think we can do, and Penix becomes a lot less fancy.
January 2nd, 2024 at 12:36 AM ^
Odunze on January 9th after Washington's National Championship game loss: "Michigan threw coverages at me I've never seen."
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:19 AM ^
This is the answer. In conjunction with that, Texas had very little edge rush. Penix is a much better QB than Milroe, but I think M can create a lot more pressure than Texas did tonight and hopefully at least rush him into throwaways where Milroe was getting turtled. Either way, M will have to score four touchdowns to win, I think. Washington's D is beatable, but there can't be long stretches (like the 3rd Q tonight) where the offense is completely ineffective.
January 2nd, 2024 at 12:38 AM ^
I disagree. If you can get hands on Penix, he won't be able to deliver to the tight ends or receivers.
January 2nd, 2024 at 2:20 AM ^
I see what you did there.
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:14 AM ^
Scheme this like against Ohio in The Game 2022-23.
January 2nd, 2024 at 2:15 AM ^
Living in Seattle I've watched the team closely this year and unfortunately for M it's not as simple as shutting down Odunze. Polk (5/122, 1 TD tonight) and McMillan (5/58, 1 TD) are major threats as well that would deserve lockdown corner treatment if Odunze weren't there. I expect both to outperform what we saw from someone like Egbuka earlier this year. On top of that they have a solid receiving tight end in Westover, plus both Bernard and Jackson as very capable slot/reverse type threats. This is something like the 2021 OSU receiving corps but with an unflappable 6th year senior firing the ball to them.
That said I am pretty confident M will win, especially if Johnson is out. The Huskies haven't seen a defense on the level of Michigan's, and without a month of rust on the offense and special teams like Alabama benefitted from tonight I don't think they can hang with M for 60 minutes. Their defense is better than credited but definitely not great. And, they tend to consistently make a few bad mistakes as well... they had their own muffed punt tonight and some killer bonehead penalties like the kick catch interference. This is entirely in character for UW.
Should definitely be a good game though.
January 2nd, 2024 at 9:12 AM ^
What did all the shitty pac-12 teams do to shut them down? I think they were in 1-score games 3-4 times, often with 6-6/7-5 teams.
January 2nd, 2024 at 2:21 AM ^
It's not just Odunze. Polk could also be a first-round pick and Macmillon is going to get drafted as well. Combine that with the best OL in the country that can give Penix time to find those receivers and you have a near unstoppable passing attack. It's going to be fascinating to see how Minter approaches it. The key is keeping the ball out of Penix's hands, which I think Michigan should be able to do as Washinton doesn't have a great defense.
January 2nd, 2024 at 2:35 AM ^
Washington QB is a statue. Send the horses
January 2nd, 2024 at 5:53 AM ^
Penix was absolutely dealing tonight. He had a bunch of passes down the field dropping perfectly into receivers arms whether they were covered or not.
He is, by far, the best QB they'll have faced all year. Minter and crew have their work cut out for them.
That all said, Michigan's defense has passed two pretty stiff tests already, and I don't think Washington's O-line is as good as Alabama's (was supposed to be). I'm not betting against them.
January 2nd, 2024 at 7:14 AM ^
Washington OL won the Joe Moore award so they're certainly much better than Bama by a good margin.
January 2nd, 2024 at 11:20 AM ^
I'd add the only caveat being OL play is subjective when considering unknown assignments and play designs, so I'm not sure about "good margin" if you're only looking at the Joe Moore award. CFBData has them for fewer line yards than Bama, but I don't subscribe to PFF or another site that measures Pass Pro / pressures.
January 2nd, 2024 at 12:02 PM ^
Meh, Fautanu is good, but not as good as Latham at Bama. No one else one their line is gonna play on Sundays. Maybe Rosengarten the RT. Bama is way more talented and stouter.
January 2nd, 2024 at 5:58 PM ^
Are you telling me that a winner of the Joe Moore Award whose committee is compromised by a bunch of former OLs is wrong?
January 2nd, 2024 at 9:43 PM ^
Michigan had the Joe Moore winning OLine in 2021 and Georgia tore us up, UWs success and award voting is based off opponents and I think our DLine is much closer to that UGA line this year.
January 2nd, 2024 at 12:29 AM ^
Their star wide out, Odunze, is excellent. Our secondary will need to be at its best and the d line will need to get Penix off schedule.
January 2nd, 2024 at 12:53 AM ^
He did get hurt. It appears more than minor.
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:31 AM ^
Nope that was their starting running back.
January 2nd, 2024 at 12:29 AM ^
Washington can't cover or tackle for shit.
January 2nd, 2024 at 12:30 AM ^
Was kind of waiting for the game to actually end before the big Penix thread. This seems premature. Oh well.
January 2nd, 2024 at 12:43 AM ^
The Penix thread did seem to come prematurely, yes.
January 2nd, 2024 at 12:54 AM ^
Penix comin???
January 2nd, 2024 at 12:30 AM ^
Yikes. But Texas took themselves out of the game with awful fumbles
January 2nd, 2024 at 12:31 AM ^
Scary matchup. That passing game is great.
Are there other areas that we're better suited versus the matchups we had today? Sure. But man, that passing attack. Penix can take off and run too, fwiw.
Can't believe the National Championship is an old Rose Bowl matchup!
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:05 AM ^
A few actually, particularly in the 1989-1993 timeframe IIRC. Those were some great UW teams.
January 2nd, 2024 at 12:31 AM ^
I think it's fitting. Washington like us, has fought through some adversity in games, and still come out the winner. Michigan and Washington both undefeated now.
The #1 and #2 teams. I think on paper it makes perfect sense.
Their dynamic pass attack offense vs our stout defense. It will make for a very interesting matchup. Will Johnson vs Rome Odunze could very well be the key to that game.
I honestly like our odds but maybe i'm still high from rolling the tide
January 2nd, 2024 at 12:55 AM ^
Also fitting that this is the last year of the 4 team playoff and the two teams duking it out will be the rivals of the first two teams in the cfb playoff NC (OSU and Oregon).
January 2nd, 2024 at 12:31 AM ^
FWIW Bill Connelly will have us as something like a 14 pt favorite against Washington. He had us beating Alabama 29-20 (and Texas beating Washington 33-27).
January 2nd, 2024 at 12:34 AM ^
Wow
I can't see Vegas making us anything more than, what, -5.5?! And that's at most. I feel it's more of a -3.5 Michigan opening line. But what the hell do I know (very little).
January 2nd, 2024 at 12:57 AM ^
Correct, you know very little.
Michigan is likely to open as a double-digit favorite. Washington was #11 in the SP+ rankings after the conference championship games. They're not a very good football team.
January 2nd, 2024 at 12:59 AM ^
Come on, "not a very good football team" is 14-0 and wins a semifinal (which we've failed to do in our previous 2 attempts). Just stupid
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:01 AM ^
Yes, they won 14 games, including squeaking by such luminaries as Arizona State.
No, they're not a very good football team. Neither was TCU last year, but they won a semifinal.
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:01 AM ^
LOL, did you bother to watch them tonight?
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:31 AM ^
This guys an osu troll, just ignore him
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:03 AM ^
Congrats, I don't know dick.
...Oh wait, opening is -4.5.
But I'm sure it'll "creep up to double digits".
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:07 AM ^
If you find somebody willing to offer that ridiculous of a line, don't waste your time gloating on the internet, take it.
Anybody who thinks UW is at the same level as Michigan has only watched the Pac-12 championship and the Sugar Bowl (and also thinks Texas is a good team). SP+ knows better.
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:14 AM ^
The books are opening with -4.5. Not my guy from the back alley. I hope you're right. But I (obviously) think some of you are way down on UW.
I was hardly gloating, you know that. I commented on what I thought the line would be. But you got your chance to call me a nincompoop (my words...again).
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:09 AM ^
This post is 10 minutes old and aged about as well as a turd.
Opening line is -4.5
If B-nut knows very little, you know less
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:10 AM ^
Um, we opened as a 4.5 pt favorite. You’re sniffing your own farts.
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:45 AM ^
You have to remember, Bill Connelly is using his system to make an unbiased score prediction. Vegas is trying to decide what number will get equal betting action on each side. That's why Connelly had Michigan as a 9pt favorite against Alabama and Vegas waffled between 1.5 and 2.5.
January 2nd, 2024 at 2:10 AM ^
This is 100% correct. But also computers trying to navigate the happenings and events on the field via college kids...is a highly volatile operation. I think Vegas takes more of the human element(s) into account.
Dropped punts? Maybe, Maybe not. Botched center-to-QB snaps? Maybe, maybe, not.
Tonight we won by 7. We also could've lost by 7. Lost by 3. Won by 3. Won by 1.
Both entities seem to know what they're doing in their own right.
January 4th, 2024 at 3:48 AM ^
Vegas can't "get equal betting action on each side," because you never know when somebody will come in with a $1MM+ wager. That's a myth -- they'd probably do that if they could, but they can't, so they don't try. In fact, Vegas has skin in the game on every single matchup. It is absolutely untrue that the books win on every game, or even win every week. What's true is that they win more often than they lose, and they have a big enough bankroll to sustain the losses if necessary.
Normally, the computer lines and the Vegas lines converge, because if they don't, the house stands to get walloped. SP+ is one of the best predictive systems there is -- it's similar to KenPom for college basketball. If the books didn't take those lines into account, too many people would just look for the differences between the computer systems and Vegas and they'd come out way ahead. The absolute only reason that the Rose Bowl was -2 instead of, say, -6.5 was that they knew the public would accept a massive discount to take Alabama.
If this line stays where it is, meaning that people are betting on UW, expect the sharp money to come in heavy on Michigan on Sunday and into Monday -- just like it did for the Rose Bowl. The only way this game finishes at less than a touchdown line is if the public backs UW 80/20 like they did Alabama, in which case the sharps and books basically just collude against the public.
January 2nd, 2024 at 12:39 AM ^
Man, both of those results (I'm writing this with 47 seconds left in the sugar bowl, so if this ages poorly, my mistake) are pretty much right in line with the predictions.
January 2nd, 2024 at 12:31 AM ^
Michigan's defense is built to slow down UW's offense. (See: 42-27, 45-23, 30-24.)
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:23 AM ^
This is a fair comparison, but Deboer is a much better coach than Day.
January 2nd, 2024 at 11:02 AM ^
Yes, Deboer is unlikely to spend any time worrying if Lou Holtz thinks they’re tough.
January 2nd, 2024 at 12:32 AM ^
Odunze and that TE (I think he’s a TE?) of theirs are key. Penix seems to thrive with giving them the ball. That’s not to diminish Penix, who is the best QB this team will face all year - and outside of Stroud is probably the best QB this team has played in at least a decade…maybe since 2007 Tebow?
At the end of the day though, I’m just glad Washington is likely going to be the opponent. If they win it all, I’ll be relatively ok with that. Way better than a Bama win
January 2nd, 2024 at 7:16 AM ^
Washington has NFL WRs in Polk and McMillian. McMillian was seen as their best WR before he got hurt and the emergence of Oduze has pushed him down to WR3. Washington WR is much better than OSU as crazy as it sounds.
January 2nd, 2024 at 12:32 AM ^
Good matchup for us imo. They're more like OSU the past two years. Awesome QB, some terrific receivers, and good but not always great defense. Will be a tough game and a fun one to watch but I feel good about our chances.