How do you think this affects 12-team CFP?
Despite the narrative that the expanded playoff fixes our problems, I suspect today’s final four decision changes the calculus for almost everyone involved. Specifically, I could imagine every AD outside of the Power 2 colluding to set a cap for the number of teams each conference can send to the CFP. Perhaps a maximum of three per conference.
Thoughts?
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:33 PM ^
I think it changes exactly nothing. It’s an open canvas, and constrictive rules limiting certain numbers per conference is the last thing that will happen.
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:36 PM ^
key word is conference.
i wonder what today does for schools like FSU and conference realignment. does this speed things up to move to SEC or Big Ten?
I also think conference title games may go away here, because why even play them, just have more big regular season games. more cross conference match ups to sort these conflicts out
December 3rd, 2023 at 2:03 PM ^
Why would any ACC team join the $EC after the $EC stole their playoff spot.
December 3rd, 2023 at 2:06 PM ^
Because they might feel like they have to join the SEC for their success to be legitimized.
December 3rd, 2023 at 2:21 PM ^
Third place in the SEC is not better than first place in the ACC.
December 3rd, 2023 at 2:27 PM ^
Yeah tell that to ESPN
December 3rd, 2023 at 2:39 PM ^
It might be easier for
- FSU
- Clemson
- part time ND
to stay in the Top 11 in the ACC versus joining the SEC and having to face
- Texas
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Oklahoma
- LSU
or the B1G and
- Michigan
- Washington
- Ohio State
- Oregon
- Penn State
- USC
December 3rd, 2023 at 2:32 PM ^
Agreed. The only thing that will change is the argument over who will be the 12th team in instead of the 4th.
December 3rd, 2023 at 2:33 PM ^
No one gives a fuck about the 12th team. They’re not winning shit.
8 teams would’ve been perfect but these geriatrics keep fucking up the number.
December 3rd, 2023 at 2:40 PM ^
I guess they really needed to see bum ass teams like Ole Miss and Missouri (and Penn St) get yet another shot despite zero top 10 wins between them
December 3rd, 2023 at 2:56 PM ^
It’s all about the Benjamins…
December 3rd, 2023 at 2:56 PM ^
Sankey wouldn't agree to 8 because the other commissioners insisted conference Champs should get auto bids. That wouldn't leave enough room for additional sec teams.
While I agree teams 9-12 have zero shot to win, it's about $$ in the end...
December 3rd, 2023 at 2:59 PM ^
No one gives a fuck about the 12th team. They’re not winning shit.
Totally disagree. You could easily have excellent teams that lose a couple early games, which would eliminate them from a 4-team field, get on a hot streak at the end of the season. Or a team could lose games due to key players being injured, then get those players back for the playoffs. In a 12-team field, being the last team in is kind of like being a 3-seed in the NCAA tournament, 3-seeds win all the time.
December 3rd, 2023 at 2:53 PM ^
Out of the 12 teams, 6 are locked in as conference champions. Fsu would be in & hosting a game. Either smu or Boise would be the 6th auto-bid, depending on where the cfp ranks them.
Of the 6 remaining teams in 2023, uga would be the next seed, followed by ohio state.
That leaves 4 teams scuttling over who should be the visiting teams seeded 9-12.
Let's say oregon, psu would be in, and at least 1 sec team (let's say mizzou). That's 11 fairly 0 debate teams already.
I don't have any idea who's currently seeded 11/12 in the cfp, but if 1 of them were an sec team, are you going to stand on the table for someone else? I would for Jedd Fisch & AZ, but after that I'd personally as soon see lsu's qb as any other team. We didn't even mention Oklahoma, who beat Texas.
I just don't think limiting conference entries would work, or even be feasible with the teams joining the sec & B10 next year.
December 3rd, 2023 at 3:45 PM ^
I agree with this thought. Further, I think any team beyond a 5 seed would be an absolute unicorn to win it all, so the care about the first team or two out will be like your 5 year old brother being left off the Jr high pickup football game.
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:34 PM ^
It simply reinforces the idea that spots have to be guaranteed for conference champions.
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:49 PM ^
The six highest ranked conference champions will get an autobid. And I think intra-conference W/Ls will place a practical cap on the number of teams from a single conference. I couldn't find the final committee rankings quickly, so let's use the ap rankings (adjusted for known CFP rankings) for inclusion counts:
- Michigan
- Washington
- Texas
- Alabama
- FSU
- SMU
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Oregon
- Missouri
- Penn State
- Ole MIss
In current conference affiliations, that would be
- SEC (4)
- B1G (3)
- Pac12 (2)
- Big 12 (1)
- ACC (1)
- American
In 2024 conference affiliations (but there will be more intraconference Ls):
- SEC (5)
- B1G (5)
- ACC (1)
- American (1)
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:59 PM ^
So Michigan, OSU, Washington, Oregon, Penn State??? Why even play the regular season.
December 3rd, 2023 at 2:02 PM ^
Michigan, Washington, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State based on the current rankings.
But those 5 will undoubtedly have more intra-conference losses against each other, so it's not a clean projection.
December 3rd, 2023 at 2:03 PM ^
I think he is referring to Oregon and Washington. Michigan, Washington, OSU, Oregon, PSU would be the 5
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:35 PM ^
Number of teams per conference capped? SEC will say “no”. The ACC will say “yes” - as will the Big 12. The B1G will be on the fence.
The SEC will promote their Top 25 teams - and an eight game conference schedule. You’ll see how important a four loss Top 25 Tennessee team can influence selected statistics / information to justify their decision.
If it was 12 teams this year - would the SEC have four teams, and the B1G have five?
SEC = Bama, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Mizzou. B1G = Michigan, Washington, OSU, Oregon, and PSU.
The 12 Team CFP will just have CCG losers play other CCG losers in the first round.
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:41 PM ^
B1G would not agree to a team cap.
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:58 PM ^
They shouldn’t, they would have 5 this year. More revenue.
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:47 PM ^
SEC would have Texas. Not sure where Oklahoma is ranked.
December 3rd, 2023 at 2:08 PM ^
I haven't seen the full 25-team CFP yet, but Oklahoma is 12th in the AP poll. Since the 6 highest ranked conference champions get an autobid, SMU would bump Oklahoma under the AP rankings.
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:55 PM ^
The 2024 SEC would also get to count Texas
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:36 PM ^
The 12-team playoff will be better, but it's only a matter of time before we have the same controversy that we've got going on now. Honestly, it could even be worse- I have to imagine that the degrees of separation between #10 and #15-20 or so are, most years, going to be just as slim as the margins between #3 and #6, if not more so. So, instead of a couple teams like FSU getting turbo-fucked out of the #3 or 4 spot, they'll be getting turbo-fucked out of the 12 spot.
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:41 PM ^
It won't make the selecting worse. Don't lose more than a game. Otherwise you don't have much to cry about if you're not given a seat at the table.
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:50 PM ^
If it was a 12 team year ... and you use the logic that injuries determine how good a team is (or can be in the CFP) -- who is to say that FSU is even a top 12 team? Is a QB-less FSU definitely better than LSU with a Heisman QB? If we're gambling, I'm taking LSU in that by a wide margin.
December 3rd, 2023 at 2:09 PM ^
Except in the 12 team the major conference champions are auto in. As is the highest ranked non power five team (as long as they are in the top 15), I believe.
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:55 PM ^
I’m not a fan of having bye teams.
Football is a game of attrition and injuries are real.
People say earn the bye but we will be having the exact same conversations we are now with who deserves it. It’s not fair.
December 3rd, 2023 at 2:00 PM ^
Of course there will be "controversy" about who gets in and who gets left out, just like there is in the 68 team NCAA tournament. But the level of importance of that controversy will be greatly reduced.
There's always a bubble controversy for the NCAA tournament that gets discussed right after the selections. But then everyone forgets about it, as those teams aren't real contenders for the championship. FSU, on the other hand, had at least a non-astronomical long shot.
December 3rd, 2023 at 2:16 PM ^
Yes, there's always going to be bubble controversy. But the stakes at this bubble are greater than the bubble between teams 11-14.
The basketball tournament has bubble controversy for the #68 spot, but imagine the stakes if the bubble happened after the first 4 seeds (16 teams) or top 2 seeds (8 teams). Those bubbles would leave out teams with a legitimate chance to make a title run.
The bubble controversy will be lessened for CFP next year because this FSU outrage would simply mean that they don't get a bye and have to host a game instead. Far less material than not getting a chance at all.
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:37 PM ^
When are they going to give us the rest of the top 25?
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:47 PM ^
2:30 I think I remember hearing.
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:39 PM ^
It means the ACC is dead. ESPN screwed FSU and was like, "yeah your TV contract sucks, what are you gonna do about it"
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:46 PM ^
Correct. This will hasten FSU and Clemson leaving the ACC.
December 3rd, 2023 at 2:13 PM ^
From what I’ve heard from Virginia folks, it ain’t happening.
December 3rd, 2023 at 2:27 PM ^
It’s definitely happening.
December 3rd, 2023 at 3:15 PM ^
It's a matter of when and how, not if.
December 3rd, 2023 at 4:04 PM ^
Wow, without Clemson and FSU, ND will dominate that conference. Just what they are looking for, an easy road to the playoff.
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:40 PM ^
Better question is does FSU refuse to play in a bowl game and claim a natty? I sure hope they do.
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:47 PM ^
I truly feel for whatever team has to play FSU. They are going to get a pissed off buzzsaw.
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:57 PM ^
Or maybe half their team sits out for the draft and they get smoked and d bags like Joey Galloway will say I told you so.
December 3rd, 2023 at 3:03 PM ^
It's gonna be Georgia, so that will be tough.
December 3rd, 2023 at 3:22 PM ^
That team is Uga. They will either also be pissed, or perhaps somewhat apathetic.
Whichever they are, they will beat a Travis-less fsu...🤷♂️
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:40 PM ^
There's going to be arguments next year about the 12th and 13th team and the final bye.
I mean, there's arguments every year about NCAA basketball tournament snubs. When the real thing that should be focused is were teams seeded correctly.
December 3rd, 2023 at 1:56 PM ^
Of course there will be arguments. But they won't matter much BC no. 12 has no chance to win it all.
December 3rd, 2023 at 6:35 PM ^
You might be surprised.
Think about a team like 2000 Michigan. That team lost a road game at UCLA with Henson injured, blew a huge lead against Drew Brees-led Purdue, and then lost a wild game at Northwestern, to finish with three losses. But that was one of the most loaded rosters M has ever had. If a team like that could sneak into a playoff as the #12 seed, it could go on a run and win it all.