OT: Saban - "Alabama is no longer elite", reference to team and personnel
I came across an article on ESPN that captured points from recent conversations / press conferences Nick Saban has held. There's reference to a comment from Saban - "It's a perfect storm," he said, noting that the personnel across the board was no longer elite.
This caused me to have a double take when I read it - since Bama has recruited at, what I define as, an exceptionally high level for years. I took a quick look at 247's Team Talent Composite - and, it appears that Alabama has only had the most talented roster in seven of the last nine seasons. And, in the two years Bama didn't have the most talented roster, their talent level was ranked second.
I guess my question is - what's going on at Bama? Are they "lacking" in player development? The QB position is critical, as we all know, but - the talent on those Bama rosters for the last decade has been incredible. Bama's only lost one game this season - to Texas, but their games are closer - and, this Saturday afternoon's matchup with Tennessee will be interesting.
As a point of reference - according to 247, Michigan's Team Talent Composite has averaged "14th" over the past three seasons. Georgia's (over the past three seasons) is second, and Ohio State is third.
A quick search yielded two articles. The first was from last week, associated with Bama's game against Arkansas - https://www.on3.com/college/alabama-crimson-tide/news/nick-saban-alabama-crimson-tide-no-longer-viewed-as-an-elite-team-ahead-of-mississippi-state-matchup/ (The title of this link may be misleading - it was published on Saturday October 14th.)
The second article is from ESPN (mentioned above): https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38679126/what-make-one-loss-alabama-ahead-pivotal-stretch
Do you have a perspective on this? Is Michigan's talent development really that much better than the other teams? (FWIW - I think Michigan's staff has done a fantastic job - and, the players have definitely put forth the effort.) Has Bama taken a step down on the ladder? Saban / Bama's only won one (1) National Championship over the last five years.
October 18th, 2023 at 3:41 PM ^
Imagine Harbaugh and current UM culture working with those recruits.
October 18th, 2023 at 3:48 PM ^
I want us to be 'Bama of the North so badly...
Mid-key hoping the momentum this year goes all the way and turns the tide (sure, pun intended) for the Maize & Blue.
October 18th, 2023 at 3:57 PM ^
BC - would it be Bama, or Georgia. In a historical / traditional perspective, it would seem that Bama is above Georgia in the SEC. But, today - it seems to me that Georgia has surpassed the Tide over the past few seasons.
October 18th, 2023 at 4:08 PM ^
'Bama, as in doing even a fraction of what they've accomplished under Saban's run... Time will tell how far and how long Georgia takes it but, damn, imagine what Michigan could do with an army of 5*'s front to back, year in and year out.
Edit: But I do concur with the "culture" comments down below 👇🏽...
October 18th, 2023 at 5:06 PM ^
These comments remind me somewhat of Boo-Hoo Lou Holtz back in the day. Saban just is sending a message to his team.
October 18th, 2023 at 3:49 PM ^
I suspect if we had those recruits we wouldn’t have the current culture.
October 18th, 2023 at 4:04 PM ^
This is part of the story. Team culture is key and Michigan is in a place where they can pass on guys.
Harbaugh and staff are finding the talent. Mason Graham and Blake Corum should have been ranked 5* talent and many of our 3* should have been 4* They are also developing guys through great coaching along with weight training and nutrition.
Where it would move the needle is having a guy like Marvin Harrison for JJ to throw to. As well as a couple more total freak game changers.
October 18th, 2023 at 4:23 PM ^
Has anyone noticed who Bama's OC is? That might explain the problem.
October 18th, 2023 at 3:42 PM ^
One of my favorite movies no one has seen is Heist starring Gene Hackman.
He is an old thief. But (not really a spoiler), he makes a mistake early in the movie.
"Baby, you got old," is what another thief tells him.
Saban got old.
October 18th, 2023 at 3:49 PM ^
Mack Brown still has the "oldest coach" title -- and UNC seems to be only getting better and better -- so i'm not sure we can blame just the head coach's age.
October 18th, 2023 at 4:39 PM ^
"Getting better" from historical program mediocrity in a bad conference is significantly less difficult than "staying at the pinnacle of the sport" in a good conference. I'm not sure that's an apples-to-apples comparison.
October 18th, 2023 at 7:44 PM ^
It's cool that Mack Brown is doing as well as he is, but there's a reason why there aren't too many guys his age in this profession.
October 18th, 2023 at 9:34 PM ^
I retired from high school tennis coaching at 57. Coached 75 teams over my career, loved every minute of it. Not equating my experience to Harbaugh or Saban, but just saying that coaching is hard and demands energy and commitment. I am low on both of those qualities at this point in my life. Might be other people that are as well.
October 19th, 2023 at 4:30 PM ^
Snyder was very impressive at Kansas State 25 years ago. Dude was old and tough.
October 18th, 2023 at 3:59 PM ^
NIL let other teams do what Bama clearly did as well as SEC, from a decade old expose, social media, open secret, and hell even Klatt alluded to it a week ago.
Same-year Transfer-elegibility also makes it so coaches weild no strong power over a players ability to leave and go get starter reps elsewhere.
That's actually very underrate, recall being 18-22 and seeing if you could make a decision that would pull you away from everything you love for possibly 2 years, zero chance you do so, especially if you're already getting payed a little bit of money.
Saban's clearly a great coach and a brilliant football mind, and knows how to build a program, but their juggernaut status was absolutely bolstered by a clear and certain competetive advantage.
October 18th, 2023 at 6:22 PM ^
Agree. NIL and establishment of transfer portal have coincided with their backslide. They’ve routinely had way more talent — and when Smart and Kiffen they had arguably better assistants
But NIL is leveling the playing field. Look at how it got a handful of key UM players to return this year and those players make a BIG difference
But the transfer portal is just as important. The 2017 Bama team was so loaded, and the portal was established in fall of 2018. You’ll probably never see that many future NFL players on one college team again. There are 24 from that team that are still in the NFL.
This year Bama had 18 players transfer out (12 go to the NFL) They only had 6 players transfer in.
Sabat has been outspoken the past few years about NIL and regulating it...it’s been a huge disadvantage to his monopoly.
October 18th, 2023 at 7:46 PM ^
Like urban, Saban went to the pros and got his head handed to him. When they don’t have the built-in advantages, they’re good coaches, but not great.
October 18th, 2023 at 3:43 PM ^
I think Bama's problems have more to do with coaching than personnel (i.e dropping from 1st in the talent composite to something like 3rd).
apparently Tommy Rees thought shoehorning Jalen Milroe into a pocket passer role was a good idea. It was not. Constructing an offense like Lane Kiffin did for freshman year Jalen Hurts wouldve been a smarter play IMO
. Also - i sincerely doubt the Saban of old wouldve panicked & benched Milroe for 1 game after the Texas loss.
October 18th, 2023 at 3:58 PM ^
Ollie - Over the past nine seasons, the "worst" Bama's Team Talent has been ranked is - second. And, that's only happened twice in those nine seasons.
October 18th, 2023 at 4:28 PM ^
Well, there you go. Bama's idea of a "down program" would be talented enough to win almost every other league
October 18th, 2023 at 7:28 PM ^
The fact a lot of ND fans were cheering as Rees went out the door says a lot. I think they are suffering a little with an OC who maybe isn't quite to the level they are used to as well as not having either an elite quarterback or an accurate, efficient game manager at quarterback.
To exacerbate things, Alabama still has an absolutely loaded roster, but maybe they don't have quite the same depth as they are used to thanks to the portal. Again, still good, but not absolutely bonkers great like in the past.
October 18th, 2023 at 3:47 PM ^
Saban is just old now. Happens to the worst of us.
October 18th, 2023 at 3:55 PM ^
Hey now.
October 18th, 2023 at 5:17 PM ^
You're a rock star!
October 18th, 2023 at 8:01 PM ^
get your game on
October 18th, 2023 at 8:42 PM ^
Go play
October 18th, 2023 at 3:49 PM ^
Since Harbaugh became Michigan's head coach in 2015 - the "average" 247 Team Talent Composite - over the nine season's is - just over 11th (11.33). As noted above - for the last three seasons - the average is 14th.
October 18th, 2023 at 5:11 PM ^
that's actually quite interesting
October 18th, 2023 at 3:50 PM ^
It seems like it's a few things:
- Their development isn't as good. Their offense has overall been on the weaker side the past few years and Bryce Young was propping them up. Now that they don't have a star QB, those flaws on the OL and at skill positions are really showing up
- As mentioned above, they don't have an elite QB
- Tommy Rees was always a weird hire imo
October 18th, 2023 at 3:57 PM ^
I agree with all that.
However, Alabama still has a solid defense. And then I look at their schedule: they can get to 11-1 and Atlanta, playing for the SEC Title. Squint enough (Brock Bowers is out, Georgia's D is worse than Alabama's D) and I can see Alabama winning that game too. And they're (likely) in the playoffs.
Anyway, I'll never consider Saban dead until he's actually dead.
October 18th, 2023 at 5:51 PM ^
I agree. Before the season, I predicted LSU would defeat Bama in Tuscaloosa. It's still possible - but, I thought Kelly / LSU would be a bit more impactful this season.
Bama's five remaining games are:
- Tennessee
- LSU
- @ Kentucky
- Chattanooga
- @ Auburn
October 18th, 2023 at 10:21 PM ^
Ah the old "play and FCS game in November but shit on teams who do so early" playbook. It should be a rule you can't ay and FCS team after week 4/5
October 19th, 2023 at 1:50 AM ^
“Anyway, I'll never consider Saban dead until he's actually dead.”
That’s exactly what I say about Jerry Sandusky.
October 18th, 2023 at 3:53 PM ^
Alabama lack of elite skill-position players is surprising, and they've definitely come back to earth a tiny bit, but I also suspect this is Saban coaching his team through the media. They played a pretty mediocre-to-bad game against Texas and because Milroe is a middling QB that's given teams chances to stay in games. But they're still pretty good.
October 18th, 2023 at 3:55 PM ^
what hiring tommy rees does to a person
October 18th, 2023 at 5:53 PM ^
That's a great point - I couldn't figure out why Saban hired him. But, once it was announced - my confidence that "Bama's offense wouldn't advance a lot" - went much higher.
October 18th, 2023 at 3:57 PM ^
Is Michigan's talent development really that much better than the other teams?
Perhaps, or our staff may simply have a better eye for talent than other staffs (or the recruiting gurus). Look at a guy like Mason Graham, who was just a 3-star recruit at the time he committed but had a huge senior season and then made an instant impact here.
October 18th, 2023 at 5:06 PM ^
This. People are quick to point directly to talent development and talent development alone. But this implies that every recruit is accurately graded in the first place.
In reality, Michigan’s talent development probably isn’t much better than any other top program. Where Michigan excels is identifying the players that fit the culture and have the desired traits the staff covets, regardless of their place in the rankings.
Guys like Mason Graham and Ronnie Bell were just criminally under-ranked. I don’t think Michigan did anything crazy with their development that wouldn’t have occurred at some other high profile school.
October 18th, 2023 at 6:47 PM ^
I disagree. I think OSU has greatly underperformed vs. Michigan in talent development over the past 5 years - so much so that it has become a tactical advantage for Michigan.
October 18th, 2023 at 9:39 PM ^
I don’t think development is the reason Michigan has a tactical advantage over OSU. We’re a tough team and they’re a finesse team. Michigan has done a great job schematically to put the game in the trenches where we excel and OSU does not want to play. OSU tried to compensate for that last year with an aggressive game plan and it cost them in the explosives. Michigan has done well to make OSU play the game Michigan wants to play.
OSU is still sending players to the NFL in droves, especially at the skill positions and they’re still competing for national titles annually. They were a field goal away from beating Georgia and sleepwalking their way to a national title. It’s silly to say they’re not developing players at an elite level.
If you’re basing this on recruiting rankings and head to head against Michigan, then you’re entirely missing the point I just made and how matchups play a factor in head to head contests.
October 19th, 2023 at 1:43 AM ^
I think it’s one of the reasons. I have to believe that talent development is a key reason why their two 5 star DEs are just “ok” at what they do. Or why their linebackers are just fine. Or why their DBs are only pretty good. I’m not saying they don’t develop talent, but I don’t think they do it as well as Michigan does.
That not to say that I disagree with your other points. I agree that Michigan has done an excellent job of identifying talent that the recruiting companies miss and they do a great job of finding the right players that fit their culture and system. Both great points and I agree that those are super important as so.
But OSU is no longer churning out first round draft picks at every position. Wide receivers? Yes. QBs? Yes. Edge rushers? Not in the past 3 years. Linebackers? Nope. Cornerbacks? Nope. Defensive tackles? Nah. Offensive tackles? Yes, if you count the guys Hutchinson pushed around like weeble wobbles. Michigan has built and developed an OL and DL better than OSU has during Ryan Day’s tenure, even though his recruits have been more highly rated.
October 19th, 2023 at 5:02 PM ^
But their 5* DEs ARE very good at what they do. The problem is what they’re really good at isn’t rushing the passer.
Like your argument is literally that since Michigan has beaten them head to head the past two years, they’re not developing talent at an elite rate. It’s just silly.
October 18th, 2023 at 3:59 PM ^
They're still elite IMO it's just other teams have caught up to them and the absence of a superstar QB really shows up on game day.
Ask Debo how he likes coaching with only a very good QB and not generational talents like Watson and Lawrence. Suddenly Clemson looks pretty damn mortal too.
October 18th, 2023 at 4:03 PM ^
he's not wrong. Kirby Smart took what he did and did it better
October 18th, 2023 at 4:06 PM ^
Impermanence. Nothing stays the same and nothing lasts forever.
aaaannnddd, also when you can't win recruiting battles by giving 'croots cars and bags of cash (that they can now get elsewhere... kinda puts a damper on your advantages).
October 18th, 2023 at 4:07 PM ^
A lot has been said about five star prospects - and, a quick look reveals the following - there are ten teams with more than three five stars on their rosters - the teams and the number of five stars is as follows:
Bama - 18
Georgia - 13
Ohio State - 10
Texas A&M - 10
Texas - 9
Clemson - 7
LSU - 7
USC - 6
Oregon - 5
Miami (FL) - 4
FWIW - Michigan has two (2) - Will Johnson and JJ McCarthy
October 18th, 2023 at 5:05 PM ^
Think about how good Will Johnson and JJ McCarthy are and then imagine you have 18 of them.... Or 13, 10, 9, 7, 5, 5 or 4 of them...
October 18th, 2023 at 6:48 PM ^
There are four teams with three five start prospects on their roster - those teams are: Oklahoma, Penn State, TCU, and Colorado.
Michigan is one of five teams with two five star prospects. The other teams are: Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Missouri.
Eleven teams have one five star prospect.
There are 17 five star prospects in the B1G conference. Ohio State has ten, Penn State has three, Michigan has two, Nebraska and Wisconsin have one each.
The Big 12 has a total of 17 five star prospects, the Pac 12 has 17, and the ACC has 14. The SEC has 58.
Think about this - Alabama has more five star prospects on its roster that then conference total for the B1G, Big 12, Pac-12, and ACC.
October 18th, 2023 at 4:10 PM ^
I think it's mostly the QB issue, look at where Clemson has 'fallen' the last few years without elite QB play, look where this Michigan team would be without JJ. All it takes is for a few recruits to not pan out at one or two key positions and you're suddenly a 10-2 type of team, not a national title contender.
October 18th, 2023 at 7:08 PM ^
The QB situation isn't helping Bama but Saban's won NCs with AJ McCarron, Greg McElroy and Jake Coker as the starting QB.
They weren't bad but they weren't elite level QBs.