Rankings Roundup after Week 7: AP, Coaches, SP+ (Groundhog Day Edition)
If you’re like me, you’re not wondering when Michigan is going to play someone good. You’re not even concerned about when we’re going to play someone with a pulse. Oh no. You’re just wondering when we are going to play someone different. Continue reading for proof that Michigan has been stuck in some weird Groundhog Day time loop where they faced the same team over and over again every week for the past month, and also why this weekend shouldn’t be anything different.
Those that have been following (thank you!) pretty much know all of these graphs by now. So, here are the numbers after week 7.
COMPARING AP, COACHES, AND SP+ (RANKINGS)
SP+ OFFENSE & DEFENSE (RANKINGS)
Focusing on the SP+ …
In this week’s edition of “I obviously don’t know shit about fuck with regard to how SP+ works”: what are Clemson, Miami and TAMU doing in the top-20? I understand that the SP+ is not a resume ranking, but come on…
And now, if anyone is wondering about good matchups according to SP+ next week:
- -#8 Penn State @ #2 Ohio State
- #34 Washington State @ #6 Oregon
- #12 Tennessee @ #9 Alabama
- #22 Duke @ #11 Florida State
- #24 Utah @ #14 USC
Meanwhile, in the B1G…
If it feels like Michigan has been playing the same team for 3 of the past 4 weeks, that’s because they have. And guess what, they’re playing the same team again next weekend as well. Rutgers, Nebraska, Michigan State, and Minnesota all check in as the #52, #53, #55, and #56 teams according to SP+. If we played Illinois (#58), I’d probably have to jump off a building or throw myself in front of a bus just to break the monotony. But at least we had a chance to get a bit of variety with Indiana. Or was that Northwestern? I really can’t tell them apart anymore.
Good shit, Iowa!
TRENDS (RAW SP+ SCORES)
Here are the weekly changes in the SP+ top 25 from the preseason through Week 7
That’s 4 weeks in a row at the top of the SP+.
SP+ OFFENSE AND DEFENSE (RAW SP+ SCORES)
Standard interpretation applies:
- Top-right: Good at offense and defense
- Bottom-right: Good defense, below-average offense
- Top-left: Good offense, below-average defense
- Bottom-left: Not so good at football
Recall that these are standardized coefficients, not raw SP+ scores. Each team’s offensive and defensive score represents the number of standard above/below the mean for that category. For example, Michigan is 1.2 standard deviations above the mean from the average SP+ offensive score, and 1.7 standard deviations below the mean from the average SP+ defensive score (this is good).
If you're looking for Rutgers and Minnesota, they are right on top of one another just slightly above Nebraska and MSU for offense.
In other notes:
- Michigan, OSU, UGA, and Texas are the only teams that are > 1 standard deviation from the mean (in the good direction) on both offense and defense.
- Nebraska and Indiana are 2 of only 5 teams that are > 1 standard deviation from the mean (in the bad direction) on both offense and defense.
- Iowa is the only team that is > 2 standard deviations from the mean for both offense and defense. Only one of these is in the good direction. I’ll let you guess which one.
SP+ RANKINGS BY CONFERENCE (RAW SP+ SCORES)
Horizontal lines are the average (mean) SP+ scores for each conference.
As I've been saying, Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Michigan State are all the same team. Try telling who is who in that muddled mess of mediocrity below the B1G average.
Also, Indiana and Northwestern are identical twinsies. And probably eskimo brothers as well (I’ll let you look that up). In any event, they need to get their shit together because they are fucking up the B1G’s average SP+ score.
It's Groundhog Day. Q.E.D.
Thanks for reading.
Go Blue!
October 16th, 2023 at 8:32 AM ^
SP+ is backing up the notion that USC may have just handed Penix the Heisman.
Also, at least Wisconsin can console themselves that they lost to a Top 25 team???
Iowatch! will be up soon. Thanks as always!
October 16th, 2023 at 8:42 AM ^
I think Penix rightfully leads the Heisman race, but still a long way to go. If Michigan can beat both PSU and OSU and JJ continues to do his thing, maybe he will have his Heisman moment.
October 16th, 2023 at 12:53 PM ^
I'm a bit surprised that JJ isn't getting more attention there, but people love to look at numbers and JJ has so fewer attempts that he's only able to put up 2/3 of the numbers.
October 16th, 2023 at 8:39 AM ^
Nice work!
October 16th, 2023 at 8:49 AM ^
And for anyone that wants to know what the last graph would look like with the new B1G teams and conference realignment:
October 16th, 2023 at 9:22 AM ^
thanks for the work you put in each week Blue@LSU; I find these posts really interesting/informative.
October 16th, 2023 at 9:44 AM ^
Thanks for reading each week!
October 16th, 2023 at 9:36 AM ^
I know there's a lot of football still to be played this season - and, with head to head matchups those figures will change - at least slightly. The 12 team CFP format comes to mind - and, the chart (which I greatly appreciate) just reinforces the two Super Conference idea - with the B1G and SEC taking the top two spots.
The data points that caught my eye are in the ACC - with ND being ahead of FSU. Is ND eligible to play in the ACC CCG this season?
October 16th, 2023 at 9:44 AM ^
ND is definitely helping to prop up the ACC average. The Michigan fan in me says To Hell with Notre Dame, just leave them out since they won't join a damn conference. Maybe I'll work on giving them only a partial weight toward the calculation of the ACC average, like .5 or something.
I don't think they can play in the ACC CCG this year. Wasn't that only a deal because of Covid? Right now I don't see anyone stopping UNC or FSU in the ACC.
October 16th, 2023 at 10:42 AM ^
Why should nd count at all towards the acc? They’re not in any capacity in the conference for football, they only play a number of games against acc opponents similar to what they used to do when they annually played umich, msu and Purdue in the b10 and usc, Stanford, etc in the pac12.
they were eligible for acc championship game for one year in 2020.
October 16th, 2023 at 10:50 AM ^
ND is not a member of the ACC in football and shouldn't be factored in at all.
October 16th, 2023 at 10:55 AM ^
That was only a 1-year Covid deal. My suggestion is to take ND out of the ACC. They have a scheduling agreement, but they're not a conference member.
October 16th, 2023 at 11:15 AM ^
I wanted to avoid having another grouping because it can get too compacted, so I just put them in the ACC. Should I have a separate grouping for Independents, just ND, or just skip Notre Dame altogether?
October 16th, 2023 at 11:22 AM ^
If you want conference vs. conference comps, then teams not in a conference aren't in a conference, right? ;-)
iow, to hell with Notre Damn.
October 16th, 2023 at 12:00 PM ^
I'd say .5 is fair. You're correct that they only had a 1 time deal for the CCG due to covid. And they're currently only playing, I think, 4 ACC teams a year. Which is half an ACC schedule. So yeah, .5 works in my view.
October 16th, 2023 at 9:22 AM ^
Good stuff. Stats are facts. Really hope the team continues to focus on the next game. Embarrassed to say I had a verboden moment Saturday thinking about PSU and Coach Franklin running his yap about Michigan. Beat Sparty ! Win this big game ! Hope a lot of guys get to play this week, taste the rivalry, and stay healthy.
October 16th, 2023 at 9:26 AM ^
The entire 14-team B1G now has a more highly ranked SP+ defense than offense. It's unanimous! Even the likes of Maryland, OSU & Purdue have succumbed to rely on defense more than offense.
- Nebraska and Indiana are 2 of only 5 teams that are > 1 standard deviation from the mean (in the bad direction) on both offense and defense.
I'm sure you meant Northwestern & Indiana, but just couldn't refuse a Freudian slip to dig Nebraska, right? ;-)
they need to get their shit together because they are fucking up the B1G’s average SP+ score.
Unfortunately, the only way IU or NW will improve their SP+ at this point is if it comes at the expense of other B1G teams. They blew it by failing to blow out Akron & Howard. Ugh.
October 16th, 2023 at 9:39 AM ^
Oh, man. I'm not sure how I messed that up. I guess my brain just can't adjust to Nebraska not being at the bottom.
It's great to see that Purdue is finally realizing they're playing in the B1G.
October 16th, 2023 at 9:29 AM ^
THEE osu "Toughness"! Made me laugh.
October 16th, 2023 at 9:32 AM ^
Iowa is going to coast into the Big Ten championship game and get absolutely hamblasted by whoever emerges victorious from the UM/OSU/PSU triangle of death. Calling it now.
October 16th, 2023 at 10:30 AM ^
If the big 3 all lose on the road. (not going to happen) Then PSU will win the East based on beating Iowa.
While the Big Ten East is the toughest conference the Big Ten West might be the worst.
October 16th, 2023 at 1:59 PM ^
I really think the ACC is getting credit for... a win vs LSU? Im not sure why FSU and UNC are getting love except for being undefeated in a trash conference.
October 16th, 2023 at 9:37 AM ^
Logged in just to upvote OSU #1 Toughness. Very well played. Sorry if I missed that in a previous edition. Thanks for putting this together.
October 16th, 2023 at 9:54 AM ^
The Toughness thing is amazing. Subtle and impactful add to the charts!
October 16th, 2023 at 10:40 AM ^
SADLY
Being as dull as I am I was actually looking for Michigan's "toughness" rank before catching the joke.
#shame
October 16th, 2023 at 10:05 AM ^
These weekly posts have become a weekly "look-forward-to" for me, like the podcasts and neck sharpies.
October 16th, 2023 at 10:16 AM ^
Thank you Blue for some great data, as always!
I’m so confused with Iowa. I still don’t know if they’re good or not. This data doesn’t really tell the whole story on them, at least not yet. So far, Wisconsin is their best win.
I’m looking forward to PSU vs OSU. The game will be very interesting to see PSU defense vs OSU offense.
October 16th, 2023 at 10:43 AM ^
Watch Iowa play football and you will be confused no longer. It is an UGLY brand of football that is wonderfully entertaining to watch. Iowa is terrible and the pure pleasure for Michigan to play them in the B1G Championship would be wonderful.
October 16th, 2023 at 2:43 PM ^
just watch a game. They are not good.
October 16th, 2023 at 10:19 AM ^
what are Clemson, Miami and TAMU doing in the top-20? I understand that the SP+ is not a resume ranking, but come on…
I think in all three cases recruiting rankings help their cause, and with Clemson and TAMU, preseason projections help. Bill has maintained that these factors make SP+ a better predictive model, so I'll take his word for it. It does still confuse people (not you, but definitely those on Twitter) who expect the rankings to more or less follow the old (flawed) AP rankings.
As it stands, I think the rankings for Clemson and Miami are reasonable, and SP+ probably isn't taking into account that TAMU is playing a (bad) backup QB right now, for which I'd downgrade them a little. Helping Clemson's cause is that they actually outgained Florida State by over 100 yards, and also outgained Duke, despite losing both.
Miami, likewise, dominated Georgia Tech in yardage (453-250), but lost due to legendarily boneheaded coaching. They lost fairly decisively to UNC but were -4 in turnovers. Neither are considered to be sustainable, though at this point he might need to introduce a Cristobal-being-an-idiot metric. (Same for Jimbo -- and Dabo? -- actually)
October 16th, 2023 at 10:27 AM ^
though at this point he might need to introduce a Cristobal-being-an-idiot metric.
I've been thinking to add one of those to the graphs, but I didn't want to clutter it up too much. 😊
October 16th, 2023 at 10:32 AM ^
I think SP+ is closer to being right on FSU. I'm not impressed that by them and I think I'd take almost anyone else in the top 10 vs them right now.
October 16th, 2023 at 10:42 AM ^
The "toughness" icon should be a pink powder puff.... other than that, your work is outstanding.
October 16th, 2023 at 10:44 AM ^
TOUGH GUY!
October 16th, 2023 at 10:43 AM ^
lol at the toughness diamond
October 16th, 2023 at 10:48 AM ^
It had to be a diamond, right? It is, after all, the hardest natural material in the world.
October 16th, 2023 at 2:15 PM ^
So not a Toughness Block of Talc? That would be next level...
October 16th, 2023 at 2:21 PM ^
It also works as a third-base reference.
October 16th, 2023 at 11:50 AM ^
So the ESSS EEEE SEEEE has the highest SP+ ranking as a conference? It just means more
October 16th, 2023 at 12:27 PM ^
So basically, Washington and Oregon are the same team and it really did show up as such on the field. I feel like if the game were at Autzen instead of Husky Stadium, it might've been the same game slightly favoring Oregon.
Definitely the game of the century of the week.
EDIT: Why a board post and not a diary? This is definitely diary-worthy. Nice companion piece to Iowatch.
October 16th, 2023 at 2:24 PM ^
Agreed on making these diaries, especially given that this is already bumped from the front page by:
- Other teams' injury news
- The first of several "What are you watching this weekend?" threads
- A Tiktok post
- Flag football
Maybe the mods can elevate it. Although, sadly, that would bump this week's Iowatch! from the front page.
October 16th, 2023 at 2:41 PM ^
Thank you and Oriental Andrew for the nice comments.
I would do it as a diary but there were already 4 diaries this morning and one (MGoLookAlike) was already bumped from the front page. I’d hate to be the one to bump either Best/Worst, Iowatch, or the stats diary further down. They are all excellent diaries.
October 16th, 2023 at 3:10 PM ^
They're good dogs, Brent.
Er, fair enough. Selfishly, I want these as diaries so that I can refer to them later in the week more easily.
October 16th, 2023 at 5:26 PM ^
I think what I'm hearing is that we should make the Diary front page have 4 entries instead of just 3. Five shalt thou not count. Neither count thou three, excepting that thou then proceed to four. Six is right out.
October 16th, 2023 at 12:44 PM ^
Finally reading this from my laptop where I can login and comment: Just want to say that I love the data visualization, presentation, and prose of these posts. Incredibly good stuff!
October 16th, 2023 at 2:43 PM ^
Thanks! ☺️
October 16th, 2023 at 1:14 PM ^
I read Connelly's rankings release every Sunday, and still find value from this post every week. Thanks for doing this.
October 16th, 2023 at 2:44 PM ^
Thanks for reading!
October 16th, 2023 at 1:18 PM ^
If I'm not mistaken it's Northwestern (not Nebraska) and Indiana that are both > 1 standard deviation below in both offense and defense.
EDIT: BuckeyeChuck already caught it.
October 16th, 2023 at 1:52 PM ^
PSU and ND are very similar teams according to SP+. They even both have coaches that are prone to gaffes. Makes me think the game plays out very similarly. Low scoring. PSU controls it but makes a game losing mistake in the 4th quarter.