Preview: Nebraska 2023
Essentials
WHAT | #2 Michigan (4-0) vs Nebraska (2-2) | |
---|---|---|
WHERE | Memorial Stadium Lincoln, NE |
|
WHEN | 3:35 Eastern | |
THE LINE |
M –17 (Vegas) |
|
TELEVISION | FOX PBP: Jason Benetti Color: Brock "Why Aren't You Robbie Hummel" Huard |
|
TICKETS | From $34. | |
WEATHER |
mostly sunny |
Overview
Scott Frost has been reduced to Ryan Day's speechwriter and Matt Rhule has taken over. Rhule is a fantastic hire for Nebraska. He's resurrected Temple and Baylor; he seems like a legitimately good dude; he's yoinked the starting quarterback and inserted an in-state dude named "Heinrich" who's running 20 times a game in a bid to placate the football gods still wroth at the Bill Callahan era. Good things are coming for Nebraska.
Just not, like, you know, now. This is a year zero situation if there ever was one. Rhule had to import Jeff Sims, a Georgia Tech quarterback who thinks that uniforms are fascism, man, and that throwing to the guys in the same ones you're wearing is totally reductive, yo. Can the Subaltern intercept? YES, JEFF. YES. IT APPEARS SO.
Anyway. That guy's on the bench and Nebraska is assembling a defense out of the trinitite that remained from last year's Michigan game. They're gonna give it a go. It's going to take another year or three to get up to speed.
[AFTER THE JUMP: REJOICE IN THE RESTORATION OF A COLLEGE FOOTBALL TRADITION]
Run Offense vs Nebraska
Damp and flat [Fuller]
This is similar to last week's outing in that Nebraska has clobbered everyone they've played in this department… and so has almost everyone else who's played Nebraska's opponents. The Cornhuskers have held every opponent under sixty yards rushing, which is a WOW item. They've also played the nation's #71, #118, and #131 rush offenses. The #71 is Louisiana Tech, which avoids the bottom because they put up monster numbers against Northwestern State and North Texas.
The "almost" in that department exists because Nebraska opened the season against Minnesota, which has plowed EMU, UNC, and Northwestern after playing Nebraska in week one. This appears to be a Mike Hart situation, though. Gopher true freshman Darius Taylor got one carry against the Cornhuskers and has since exploded into Yet Another Minnesota Running Back with 500 yards in his last three games at a 6.1 YPC clip. But even with that caveat, the Cornhusker's performance against the Gophers suggests that Nebraska's renaissance is at least somewhat for real. This is a team that gave up 214 yards at a 4.6 clip against Northwestern last year. They've leveled up.
One guy in particular has, and that's #0, 330-pound nose tackle Nash Hutmacher. On the podcast this afternoon Seth wondered why Michigan didn't get after a guy who went 166-0 in South Dakota high school wrestling. It is clearly because a guy named "Nash Hutmacher" was fated by destiny to play at Nebraska.
Anyway, Hutmacher is the nose in a straight-up 3-3 stack…
…which means he eats doubles all day and hopes that his yeoman work allows tricksy hobbitses to blitz into the backfield. This has worked unreasonably well given the state of the Nebraska defense last year. That said, Hutmacher was on the team last year, as were the starting ends. There is just no way that all of those guys got good enough in one offseason to hold up against Michigan's OL, particularly now that they've got two tight ends plowing people.
Michigan's main concern here will be IDing where guys are coming from. The actual blocks are going to go just fine.
KEY MATCHUP: TRICKSY HOBBITSES vs NEW GUYS. We've seen the occasional bust from Hinton and (maybe?) Nugent, mostly in the passing game; this is going to be a defense that is asking questions about who you're blocking on every snap.
Pass Offense vs Nebraska
Loveland o'clock? [Fuller]
Similar story here, as Nebraska has struggled badly to get organic pass rush. This isn't a huge surprise when two of your DL are 300+, but Blaise Gunnerson, Ty Robinson, and Hutmacher all have pass rush win rates under 5%. Their only reasonably effective rushers are linebackers Luke Reimer and John Bullock. Those guys get sent a lot… but also don't get sent a lot:
Against Colorado Nebraska had perhaps the most interesting allocation of rushers that I've charted, a nearly perfect 1/3 vs. 1/3 vs. 1/3 split in pressure. They rushed more than four players on 35.6% of snaps but also rushed fewer than four on 34% of snaps.
Nebraska is going to throw the kitchen sink at McCarthy in an effort to confuse his reads, and if they stick to the Colorado gameplan McCarthy is going to have eons to throw on a lot of snaps.
The good news for Nebraska is that they have some guys in the secondary. Alex on Quinton Newsome:
When Newsome is targeted, you typically see him within a pace or two of the receiver, even if the ball is badly overthrown …For the season, Newsome has allowed 13 catches on 23 targets for a respectable 56.5% completion percentage, while his NFL passer rating against when targeted is a stellar 74.7. Newsome is a rock-solid tackler in addition to his coverage chops, an all-around quality B1G corner.
Nebraska is playing with their backup safeties; this has gone fine so far. Competition level caveats don't apply here after 42 Shedeur Sanders attempts faced; Sanders did get up to 9.4 YPA, but much of that was after Sims's turnover implosion put the game out of reach. Defenses let down when it's clear the offense isn't going to do anything except give the opponent a short field.
A place Michigan might attack: other corner is Malcom Hartzong, a 5'9" mighty-mite who narrowly avoided a cyan in Alex's charting. This might be a game to stick Loveland outside and back-shoulder fade down the field.
For Michigan this will also be about IDing blocks. Nobody on this Nebraska team is going to get to McCarthy if they draw a blocker, and given time McCarthy will dice this secondary. Good play so far from the safeties is one thing; trying to cover Roman Wilson is another.
KEY MATCHUP: WELL I MEAN I JUST SAID THE THING ABOUT IDING BLOCKS vs MAYBE I SHOULD HAVE LEFT THAT FOR THIS SECTION.
Run Defense vs Nebraska
ope gonna yoink your linebacker [Fuller]
When Nebraska decided they could no longer tolerate Jeff Sims turning the ball over four times a game they turned to Heinrich Haarberg, a 6'5" in-state kid, and hit up this guy for advice:
Coach Matt Rhule and his offensive staff for the past month have received a crash course in option principles from Ron Brown. A longtime former assistant under Tom Osborne, Frank Solich and Bo Pelini, Brown works this season for Rhule as the director of player support and outreach.
This pleases the football gods. Yea, they have smitten Gabe Irvin and Rahmir Johnson, Nebraska's top two running backs, but Anthony Grant stepped into the breach. Grant isn't your average third string running back; he was the starter last year but lost his job because he kept putting the ball on the turf. He's not Corum but he's solid:
The one-two punch of Haarberg and Grant put up 224 yards at 5.1 a clip against NIU and 312 at 6.5 against Louisiana Tech, and they are running bits of the old-timey Nebraska playbook:
Triple option is probably off the table but Haarberg runs a lot of speed option in addition to the usual suite of zone read stuff everyone runs these days, plus the "freeze option" where a mesh point is aborted into more speed option.
They toss in jet sweeps and the like; it's most of the package when you really want to avoid throwing the ball. All of this stuff avoids the center of the defense, where Michigan is strongest, and puts linebackers and defensive backs into the mix. Michigan has a couple of rusty starters just coming back from injury in the secondary and could leak some yards from time to time, particularly if edges don't get set, but if the primary edge guys are Jaylen Harrell and Mike Sainristil, well… good luck with that.
KEY MATCHUP: JAYLEN HARRELL vs SO YOU WANT TO EDGE JAYLEN HARRELL. This might be a game to just leave him on the field, because this Nebraska offense might as well be nicknamed "Jaylen Harrell's wheelhouse."
Pass Defense vs Nebraska
[Barron]
This is going to be a keep-em-honest sidelight. Haarberg is averaging 5.9 YPA after games against Northern Illinois and Louisiana Tech (plus six attempts against Colorado). PFF grades him out at 55; Alex's charting saw him pick up a decent 71% downfield success rate against NIU, but:
What I primarily noticed watching Haarberg throw the ball is how short his average depth of target was. Very little down the field … Most of what he was throwing was five yard hitches, crossing routes, screens, things of that nature. When he did throw deeper, his accuracy started deteriorate.
Nebraska lost potential targets Zavier Betts, Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda, and UGA transfer Arik Gilbert to various maladies/crimes by the end of the opener, so options are thin. Virginia transfer Billy Kemp leads Nebraska in catches with 13; he's one of those guys listed at 5'9" who does his damage at or near the line of scrimmage. Alex notes that some of those "catches" are illusory since they're touch passes on jet sweeps.
Nebraska has to focus on stuff at the line of scrimmage because Nebraska's pass blocking is rough. The entire left side of the line looks shaky per PFF; C Ben Scott and G Ethan Piper are in the mid-60s and mid-50s, respectively, and left tackle Turner Corcoran may be the biggest turnstile in all of college football:
Ye gods. We've got a literal Blutarsky GPA situation here. Nebraska has already suffered ten sacks despite running most of the time.
The Cornhuskers will be yet another team that mostly uses the pass game as a way to stretch the field horizontally; when not stuck in passing downs they're going to run, run, and then run. There will probably be some sideline fades, because hey maybe you get lucky, but any progress in the air is going to be much like BGSU and like opponents: maybe the occasional chunk, serious possibility of disaster every dropback.
KEY MATCHUP: TURNER CORCORAN vs ANYBODY. I have never seen the like of the above. Block somebody!
SPECIAL TEAMS
Year zero often shows up on special teams, and yup: freshman kicker Tristan Alvano is 1/3 on the season with misses from 45 and 41. The make was from 27. Alvano was the kickoff guy too but he put two of his 10 kickoffs out of bounds and only got touchbacks on four of the other eight; he was replaced by punter Brian Buschini, who isn't getting them much deeper but is at least keeping them in the field of play.
Buschini is eh, with a 43 yard average. 9 of his 19 punts have been returned. His net of 40 yards per punt is decidedly middling.
Kemp returns punts; he also returned them for most of his tenure at Virginia. Verdict: unless you are William and Mary, he's not a threat. Kickoffs are unclear since Nebraska's primary returner is out for the season and it appears the Cornhuskers used the La Tech game to audition a replacement. The chances Nebraska even returns a kick with Tommy Doman booming it are minimal.
KEY MATCHUP: AHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS
INTANGIBLES
CHEAP THRILLS
Worry if...
- Michigan's handling a mobile quarterback like it's the late Carr era.
- Michigan has some hiccups early and all the running/clock rules stuff means the game is like 7-6 at halftime.
- There's still no tackle clarity.
Cackle with glee if...
- Stack blitzes are swatted away like so many gnats.
- Nebraska is in a passing down and [Insert Player] is lined up over Corcoran.
- Jeff Sims plays and throws into triple coverage.
Fear/Paranoia Level: 3 (Baseline 5; –1 for Wet And Flat Last Year, –1 for Year Zero, –1 for The Worst Tackle In College Football, +1 for Aaaargh A 3-3-5, +1 for Rhule Can Coach, –1 for Jeff Sims Or Guy Who Was Jeff Sims's Backup, –1 for Corum Back)
Desperate Need To Win Level: 9 (Baseline 5; +1 for It's All On The Table, +1 for Three Score Spread, +1 for Projecting The OSU Game, +1 for Must Defend #1 In SP+, +1 for Winning Is Nice, –1 for Nebraska Fans Are Nice And Something Good Happening To Them Would Not Be Like Losing To MSU.)
Loss will cause me to... stop joking about the "football gods," because they are very real and demand sacrifices.
Win will cause me to... aggressively eat corn!
The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
Well: it'll be short. Nebraska's going to run run run and Michigan's going to be relatively balanced unless they get a two score lead, at which point they will boa constrictor out the second half.
It's tough to see this Nebraska offense move the ball much; they don't have the personnel to manufacture explosives and their offensive line is deeply unlikely to be able to deal with Kris Jenkins and friends. A bunch of QB run game will ask some questions on a couple drives, but this team isn't likely to drive the field.
Defensively Nebraska will probably gum up the Michigan ground game some; it only takes one guy to mess up for a play to end unsuccessfully and while the grading has been very good for most players most of the year, this will be a test for Nugent and Hinton that could result in some frustration. But this is not a defense that can exploit Michigan's at-times iffy pass protection from the tackles and one that will probably sit back in eight-man zones that McCarthy has already demonstrated he can eviscerate. Nebraska will hold up better than anyone to date, and given the likelihood that the number of possessions in this game is going to be 7-9 that'll give the appearance of a relatively close game on the scoreboard; it'll feel like a comprehensive victory.
Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid tomorrow:
- It's still Hinton at right tackle to start, with Henderson rotating in.
- Donovan Edwards has had a come-to-Jesus conversation this week and gets it right.
- Michigan, 25-8.
September 29th, 2023 at 4:06 PM ^
Michigan might be very run heavy tomorrow given it's going to be hot and (especially) windy. One thing they cannot do is ignore weather effects on passing a la 2017 MSU. Being run heavy on both sides will also drastically shorten the game and keep heat effects on players to a minimum.
September 29th, 2023 at 4:07 PM ^
KEY MATCHUP: TRICKSY HOBBITSES vs NEW GUYS
Brian's gnome and gnome-adjacent fetish just gets deeper and deeper each week.
September 29th, 2023 at 4:14 PM ^
Nebraska actually sounds a lot like Rutgers. One-dimensional offense built around a run-first QB, decent defense.
September 29th, 2023 at 4:26 PM ^
And they wear that sickening red color.
September 29th, 2023 at 4:25 PM ^
They're going to need more time to finish de-Frosting.
September 30th, 2023 at 3:30 AM ^
I thaw what you did there.
September 29th, 2023 at 4:28 PM ^
Michigan wins and covers 31-10. Then we can settle in for the epic battle:
September 29th, 2023 at 4:34 PM ^
Sickos game of the year of the week right there!
September 29th, 2023 at 6:23 PM ^
Iowa’s stoppable offense meets MSU’s movable defense.
September 29th, 2023 at 9:52 PM ^
Or vice versa
September 29th, 2023 at 8:14 PM ^
My wife (who works at U of Iowa) texted me just now and said the over/under on that game is 36.5. I'm too lazy to look it up but if that's correct it's way high.
September 30th, 2023 at 8:03 AM ^
Mich/Neb O/U is 39.5, making these two games the only two on the board under 40.
September 29th, 2023 at 9:51 PM ^
This is the Radioactive Man “MY EYES!! THE GOGGLES DO NOTHING!” game.
September 29th, 2023 at 10:10 PM ^
Jesus Cade. I hope you're happy.
September 30th, 2023 at 1:20 AM ^
That'll teach him! Ill take a little sass on the way out from a kid that turned our program around, won a BI10 championship, and lead us to the playoffs. He has way more to be bitter about concerning our fans than we do concerning him.
September 30th, 2023 at 9:29 AM ^
Oh good grief Charlie Brown.
Cade didn't turn the program around. He was just along for the ride. 15 TD passes in 14 games, woohoo. He wasn't even a good teammate, as his behavior toward JJ (from the start) and to the rest of the team (once he lost the starting job) showed. And then he trashed the program on his way out. You reap what you sow, Cade.
September 30th, 2023 at 11:32 AM ^
Such as?
No one I'm aware of spoke ill of him or wished him anything but the best - until he started chirping!
Any bitter feelings he has towards Michigan fans were manufactured by himself.
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:22 AM ^
Did you miss what happened in a game we actually played at home? What is wrong with you people and your memories.
September 29th, 2023 at 4:33 PM ^
I worry this is the game where Michigan being 2nd to last in average plays per minute (behind Navy!) might bite them. Nebraska is also going to try to run as much clock as possible and limit possessions. The 7-6 game at half turns in a nail biter if Michigan loses was possesison to a fumble or tipped INT and all of a sudden is 13-7 mid way through the 3rd.
Michigan should/will still win, but I'd love to see them speed up a bit on offense. Create more possessions if possible and lower the variance.
September 30th, 2023 at 1:30 AM ^
Ive thought about this a lot and I think we forget some things as fans. And I say this as someone that is right there with you.
As fans we want a lot more passing, a lot better OOC schedule, and more plays/possessions.
The results are starting to show the coaches have it right. They are trying to be a top 4 team and win the BigTen.
You ever wonder why we score more against OSU and TCU then we do Rutgers and Bowling Green? I think its because they dont want a wild 200 play game. Lots of less snaps equals a lot less potential injuries. Also they are trying to have the perfect defense on every possession. We might stub our toe on offense but we punt knowing that we have a defense that will shut down what the other team wants to do. We work on defensive perfection as our first and foremost mission. Very well rested legs thanks to a ground game and long drives from our offense.
When we get into a game like OSU vs ND we are built for that. Listen, as fans a lot of what we do (plus an ungodly amount of commercials) is boring as shit but you have to look at the results. If these guys thought our defense was challenged I bet a hurry up would be utilized but they know a perfectly rested defense means an insto-win a minimum of 10 games a year.
September 30th, 2023 at 7:43 AM ^
Wdym?? I played high school football so I am eminently qualified to question Harbaugh and co.'s judgment on tempo!!!
September 30th, 2023 at 6:50 AM ^
Yes! UM can slow down when they have a 17+ point lead. Don’t mute your talent advantage please.
Go Blue!
September 29th, 2023 at 4:53 PM ^
I'll be at Comerica saying goodbye to Miggy. Of all our B1G opps this season, I'm glad it fell against Nebraska.
31-10.
September 30th, 2023 at 8:06 AM ^
With his 3 knocks last night, Miggy passed Beltre and will sit at #17 on the 3,000 hit club list for perhaps the rest of our lifetimes.
September 29th, 2023 at 4:57 PM ^
Does not compute
Fear/Paranoia Level: 3 (Baseline 5; –1 for Wet And Flat Last Year, –1 for Year Zero, –1 for The Worst Tackle In College Football, +1 for Aaaargh A 3-3-5, +1 for Rhule Can Coach, –1 for Jeff Sims Or Guy Who Was Jeff Sims's Backup, –1 for Corum Back)
September 29th, 2023 at 4:59 PM ^
"Blutarsky GPA situation here"
Pure Brian Gold!!!👍
September 29th, 2023 at 5:33 PM ^
Having been born in Nebraska—with my grandpa having season tickets years ago, I'm not surprised Nebraska fans are nice. I'm glad too.
Still, Go, Blue. Beat Red.
September 29th, 2023 at 8:18 PM ^
"Welcome to Lincoln. We wish you luck."
September 29th, 2023 at 5:35 PM ^
blutarsky had no grade point average. the guy on the motorcycle had the 0.00.
September 29th, 2023 at 6:25 PM ^
Tate Forcier drives a motorcycle?
September 29th, 2023 at 6:32 PM ^
Too soon!
September 29th, 2023 at 9:53 PM ^
You got it backwards.
D-Day had no grade point average. All courses were incomplete.
Bluto had the 0.0.
September 29th, 2023 at 10:45 PM ^
Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life, son!
September 29th, 2023 at 5:36 PM ^
In a year where the playoff is still just 4 teams and Michigan has the team they have, the default "Desperate Need To Win Level" is always 10
September 29th, 2023 at 5:40 PM ^
As of 4:40 pm CDT, some of the pictures don't seem to match the sections. Or the titles. Something.
September 29th, 2023 at 5:56 PM ^
Fox pried Hummel away from ESPN, so hopefully we get a reunion of him and Benetti for college hoops.
September 29th, 2023 at 8:16 PM ^
I'd be OK if Robbie Hummel were permanently assigned to our games.
September 29th, 2023 at 6:00 PM ^
Every score has been more or less 31-6 this year. Same this week.
September 29th, 2023 at 6:13 PM ^
Another tough first half but our talent wears them down. UM to win 31-10
September 29th, 2023 at 7:33 PM ^
Brock Huard: launch into sun.
Let's Go Blue!
September 30th, 2023 at 8:09 AM ^
I like Brock Huard - he's a bit monotone but he seems like a good and fair dude and more importantly, he really knows what he's talking about.
September 29th, 2023 at 8:15 PM ^
Brock Huard - Yuck
September 29th, 2023 at 9:07 PM ^
My stupid idea to get Edwards going: if you get down inside the 5. Let him pound it in. He missed his chance against ECU when they were trying to get him a score. And he’s been pressing since. Let him get some easy TDs and it’ll make him more patient.
September 29th, 2023 at 9:25 PM ^
Scoring against a goal-line defense isn't necessarily easy. Especially for a more upright runner like the Don.
September 30th, 2023 at 8:11 AM ^
They've already tried that this year in the horrid non-conf portion. And it didn't work even against those Ds!
September 29th, 2023 at 9:14 PM ^
We have no pass threat, at least no deep pass threat...no playmakers there. And pass blocking not so good. So short passes, playaction, tight ends, etc and Run The Damn Ball. Haarberg, kid outta nowhere, Cinderella story....better than Sims. He has wheels and size and doesn't turn the ball over, which lost the MN and Co games or we'd be 4-0.
D pretty salty. Swarm to the ball. Get worn out when the O can't do their part.
Special team much better....damning with feint praise.
Let's have a clean game both sides, no injuries either side.
GBR!
September 29th, 2023 at 9:14 PM ^
And who knows who will play who regularly in the "new" bigly B1G? So I say enjoy whatever games this year with a few regular or semi regular faces, and beyond a few close rivalry games, Ii will be random, and IMHO, less engaging.
September 30th, 2023 at 1:33 AM ^
Here is a selection of games you will see next year with our new additions.
UM @wash @oregon @USC
OSU vsUCLA vsWash(Penixless)
September 29th, 2023 at 10:13 PM ^
I hate the new clock rules so much. If you're going to run the clock, change the play clock to 25-30 seconds. No one asked for this shit. College football now averages less plays than the NFL. Pitiful.
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