Ian Comin' - FL Hurricane
Mates,
Hurricane Ian is set to whack Florida, mostly in the west coast and into Tampa. I know we have many FL Wolverines and probably some in the path of that storm. The storm is forecast to 110 MPH winds and 10-13" of rain. Wild to think that if that moisture was up north in the cold, it would be a 10x or 20x for snow.
NOAA warnings include:
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind greater than 110 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for extreme wind of equivalent CAT 3 hurricane force or higher. - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property should be urgently completed. Prepare for catastrophic wind damage. - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months. - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over. - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Widespread power and communications outage
The NFL has Miami on the road Thursday night up in Cincy, but Tampa is supposed to play on Sunday at home vs. KC. Some college games will be affected, including SMU v. UCF.
1. Stay safe FL Wolverines
2. How many of us have been in/through hurricanes, in Florida or elsewhere?
XM
September 27th, 2022 at 7:01 PM ^
I think your winds and rainfall are a little optimistic. As soon as Ian hits the Gulf it will increase in intensity.
I live in St Augustine (east coast for the those geographically challenged) and we are preparing for >18inches in rain. That’s no joke.
September 27th, 2022 at 7:08 PM ^
holy crap geek, please stay safe. do you have evacuation plans? power/food/water set up?
September 27th, 2022 at 7:27 PM ^
Both can be true. This storm is supposed to stall significantly once it gets over land, hence the heavier rainfall in the central and eastern parts of the state. The storm surge on the west coast is the major concern there (in addition to the winds, obviously). Stay safe!
September 27th, 2022 at 7:36 PM ^
I heard that it was going going to slow down (not in intensity, just the speed at which it approaches and passes over) once it gets close to Florida. That's not good...
Stay safe.
September 27th, 2022 at 7:44 PM ^
Should be a bit of slowing in both speed and strength as it gets over land. Most likely going to hit the coast as a 4 (maybe 3), and hopefully deteriorate to a 1 or TS by the time it gets to Orlando area. Either way, dangerous stuff for just about the entire state.
September 27th, 2022 at 10:06 PM ^
I just read that the forecast changed and it's supposed to speed up. The eyewall is going through a replacement cycle which will intensify it but speed it up. Praying that happens.
A good friend's daughter is in her first year of teaching in Ft Myers. It's her 3rd year overall as the first 2 were spent safely teaching in Grenada.
September 27th, 2022 at 8:03 PM ^
Good luck and stay safe.
September 27th, 2022 at 8:49 PM ^
Whoa! 18 (eighteen) inches of rain?
Be safe!
September 27th, 2022 at 9:18 PM ^
I’m just south of you in New Smyrna Beach and the rainfall is the biggest concern. Our ground is so saturated from the recent rains.
September 27th, 2022 at 9:22 PM ^
Stay safe! We're in Tallahassee, and it's been a bit of a roller coaster, gearing up and then letting out a small sigh of relief, knowing that family and friends--many millions--are still in harm's way.
September 27th, 2022 at 9:47 PM ^
Stay safe my man! My Mom is driving up to us here in NC tomorrow from the Orlando area…Eustis specifically.
September 28th, 2022 at 12:08 AM ^
18" of rain is definitely no joke, but imagine my former hometown in SE Texas, just outside of Houston, that got 55" of rain during Harvey.
That's 55. Fifty. Freaking. Five.
September 28th, 2022 at 12:19 AM ^
Godspeed. Family is a bit up the road in Ponte Vedra Beach. Hopefully things die down dramatically as it passes over land.
September 28th, 2022 at 6:13 AM ^
UPDATE: ian has now kicked up to a cat 4 storm with winds up to 140 mph. rain totals look to have boosted too.
stay safe floridians, ian is definitely coming.
September 28th, 2022 at 9:55 AM ^
18? I also live in Saint Augustine and have been hearing closer to 7-10 inches. Hoping for less… stay safe!
September 28th, 2022 at 10:24 AM ^
I used to live up the road in Jacksonville. St Augustine is an awesome place (Jacksonville....not so much). Stay safe....maybe you can ride the storm out at Meehan's!
September 27th, 2022 at 7:01 PM ^
From what I've seen of Gattis' Hurricane Offense, it'll come to a halt once it gets to the Red Zone.
September 27th, 2022 at 8:14 PM ^
Either that or it'll run right smack into another hurricane.
September 27th, 2022 at 9:19 PM ^
Winning post of the thread!
September 27th, 2022 at 7:04 PM ^
Charter a jet from Nashville and get MTSU down there, this thing will be defeated with no problem.
September 27th, 2022 at 7:06 PM ^
Gold.
September 27th, 2022 at 7:09 PM ^
A good follow for stuff like this is @ryanmaue, a meteorologist who did his undergrad at Michigan (and worked at the AA-Saline rd Meijer, where I shared cashiering work with him for a year) before moving south. He produces some great model work and puts good stuff on twitter.
September 27th, 2022 at 8:18 PM ^
Followed. Thanks for the suggestion.
September 28th, 2022 at 5:58 AM ^
If he could just divorce his hurricane information feed from his Cato Institute feed...
September 27th, 2022 at 7:17 PM ^
Recently sold our home in Ft. Myers and are safe and sound in the comforts of Ann Arbor this month, but have to deal with the fear and concern for two young adult sons and loads of friends and colleagues all within the current target. The missus is having an especially rough go at the moment. As Mr. Petty said, the waiting truly is the hardest part.
September 27th, 2022 at 7:19 PM ^
Good luck to everyone, stay safe.
I lived through Ike in Houston - lost power for 2 weeks, a tree hit our house (fortunately didn’t break through the roof) and water almost came through the doors. The only thing that saved us was the storm moved fast or we would have been underwater. No fun but all things considered we were very lucky. A lot of folks closer to the shore and in Galveston got hit very hard.
September 27th, 2022 at 7:20 PM ^
Stay safe, MGoFloridians!
September 27th, 2022 at 7:22 PM ^
Lived in FL through the '04 season where Charley and others effed things up pretty bad. Stay safe y'all, don't mess around with these storms.
September 27th, 2022 at 8:19 PM ^
Me too! That 2004 season was crazy!
September 27th, 2022 at 11:17 PM ^
I was in undergrad at the time and I think two of the first 3 weeks of the semester were canceled due to hurricanes. My car was trapped in the garage for a few days as the garage door was crinkled by the wind.
September 27th, 2022 at 7:28 PM ^
Further inland here, they moved the South Carolina game from Saturday to Thursday night. I’m assuming Clemson will do the same, but no word yet. We’re supposed to get 3-5” rain and 30-40mph winds with 60-ish gusts. Obviously nothing close to hurricane level, but still enough to down trees and make driving high profile vehicles dangerous.
September 27th, 2022 at 7:29 PM ^
My mom lives in Longboat Key and evacuated this morning. She is with a friend who lives farther inland. I don't think I will be sleeping much tonight.
September 27th, 2022 at 9:16 PM ^
Sleep well tonight, we should start seeing winds around 8AM with an 8PM landfall.
September 28th, 2022 at 7:38 AM ^
I lived on Longboat Key. We were always protected by some unknown source, the hurricanes always went up the coast north, or across the state well south. Some weird vortex that didn't allow direct hits. The fact that this is going that way is terrifying. Longboat Key is exposed, and they just freaking re-built the Pier after it was destroyed a while back!
September 28th, 2022 at 8:43 AM ^
If this holds course, it will be my first direct hit. Charley was small, so while the eye went through 15 miles south of me (North Port), we may have barely had hurricane force winds. Irma we got winds over 100 MPH, and I would walk around my house because of the trees on empty lots and the fact that my house is situate in the middle of a triple curve over a 1/4 mile stretch that doesn't really allow the winds to rip through where I am. We did, however, lose power for over a week due to Irma.
We have had gusts over 30 MPH consistently since mid-night and power has been flashed off and on a few times already, so that does not bode well as the eye approaches. Things should get interesting here in the next 5 hours.
September 28th, 2022 at 9:14 AM ^
Good luck, hang in there. Wish you the best in navigating the storm. I was there for Charley, there was panic but then it turned out not that bad. Looks like you won't have that luxury on this one.
September 27th, 2022 at 7:57 PM ^
I have Michigan family that live in that area, hoping they've all evacuated. Meanwhile I live in South Carolina where we always seem to get hit with remnants of any Gulf or south Atlantic coast hurricanes. Probably a lot of rain and some wind when it gets here. But occasionally they do hit hard even here, Hugo hit my area for instance and caused a lot of damage.
September 28th, 2022 at 9:33 AM ^
I was stationed in Charleston when Hugo came through. We had just left a week earlier and were half-way to our station in the North Atlantic when we saw that Hugo made a hard left directly into Charleston. Had some sad campers worrying about family on board for the next couple of months. Nothing but 60-word telegrams, called 'family-grams', for submarine crews at the time. They were one-way, receive only, and were subject to censor from the CO to scrub anything truly sad. They had extra importance on that trip until we got back home...
September 27th, 2022 at 8:14 PM ^
I was in DC for the "hurricane" that hit in 2015, including being at the Maryland game that was supposed to be a night game and got moved up to noon at the last minute to get ahead of the storm. The whole thing was a big nothingburger.
I was also in Hawaii during a tropical storm around 20 years ago, and that was the craziest thing I've ever seen. Unbelievable rain and lightning, wind so strong trees were bent completely over. Even the next day after it had blown through, the wind was still gusting at 40-50mph and debris was flying everywhere...
September 27th, 2022 at 8:24 PM ^
User name partially checking out.
I have been in 2 hurricanes, one on the east coast 100 yrs ago, and one on the Baja down in mexico
September 28th, 2022 at 12:16 AM ^
This one is gonna be rough. Moving very slow, projected Cat 4, and just going to flood/grind down anywhere it goes. Hope they take this one seriously.
September 27th, 2022 at 8:14 PM ^
We live in Venice Florida which is looking like ground zero for the storm. We left this afternoon knowing it’s likely not to be fun and headed southeast to Boca Raton and are staying at hotel with the family and dog - beautiful area. Got a Go Blue at dinner!!
September 27th, 2022 at 11:54 PM ^
I hope Sharky’s survives the storm intact! Stay safe down there.
September 27th, 2022 at 8:40 PM ^
Went through Maria in Southern Miami and it was a shitshow. No electricity for a week and a half, cell phones coverage was shit. Was forced to work until two hours before her arrival. Overall, glad to be back in the Mitten.
September 28th, 2022 at 12:47 PM ^
I make the point quite a bit, but for all the "problems" the Midwest has--the Rust Belt and all that--we are very lucky. We don't get hurricanes, we don't get earthquakes, tornados are rare (unlike the Plains), we have the largest source of fresh water in the country (and pretty much the world), and relatedly we don't get the wildfires like out West, etc. From a resource and natural disaster standpoint, there's really no better place in the country you could be.
September 28th, 2022 at 9:30 PM ^
Well, there’s winter
September 27th, 2022 at 8:41 PM ^
MGoSarasota checking in. Looking like south county landfall at the moment. Stay safe fellow Floridians
September 27th, 2022 at 8:50 PM ^
We need to get to Poconos ASAP. Hurricane coming hatchet coming
September 27th, 2022 at 9:05 PM ^
Going to get chased out of Myrtle Beach, forecast is for 6-8 inches of rain, which is nothing compared to what Florida is facing but more than enough to shut down outdoor activity
September 27th, 2022 at 9:06 PM ^
My purely unscientific and entirely subjective experience is that frequently the media hysteria about an impending "Michigan Snowpocalypse 20__" is inversely proportional to the actual damage. I hope that's the case down in Florida.