Do QB changes actually work? When does it make sense to change? Milton =...Cardale Jones?
Few topics of discussion:
With all the talk of switching QBs, I was curious if anyone had any data on whether or not switching QBs has a positive effect on a season in regards to replacing an established starter.
Off the top of my head, I can think of a couple of examples: Ian Book for the other Notre Dame guy last year, Connor Cook for Andrew Maxwell in 2013...Tyrelle Pryor for Todd Boeckman for Ohio State in 2008? Are there a bunch of examples of this failing miserably that I'm not thinking of?
There are also single game examples as well: Tua for Jalen Hurts against Georgia, not by design but I genuinely believe that Haskins coming in for Barrett won Ohio State the 2017 game. Minor, minor example, but Brandon Peters for O'Korn in 2017 against Rutgers.
Does the timing of the switch matter?
If Shea doesn't look good against Illinois and McCaffrey is still out with a concussion and McCaffrey is good to go against Penn State, do you really roll with Patterson if you're Harbaugh just because its a big road game? Don't you just go with who you think gives you the best chance to win? Or is the concern that because its a high profile road game, McCaffrey is more likely to be re-injured in some capacity due to poor decision making because he's nervous (or something along those lines)?
Joe Milton = Cardale Jones?
Let's say Patterson continues to look lost and McCaffrey is not ready because of the concussion: Could Joe Milton not step in and be a version of Cardale Jones? They are roughly the same size, both have cannon arms, aren't considered true mobile quarterbacks but can move if necessary and in theory both should be hard to bring down. If you think Charbonnet could fill the Elliott role in this scenario, don't you have to roll with it? Milton's arm should be able to stretch the defense (even if his accuracy leaves a lot to be desired) and open things up for Charbonnet, which should in turn cause the defense to respect the run.
Anyway, I hope that the switch goes on and Patterson finds his form again, but thought these ideas were worth discussing in case it doesn't happen.
October 9th, 2019 at 12:15 PM ^
Even if Patterson chucks it deep with more frequency, he will still have to take advantage of the shorter throws that the deep balls open up. Not to mention short field / red zone situations. He'll still have to stand in there and deliver on time passes at some point otherwise it's moot.
October 9th, 2019 at 1:13 PM ^
Is it possible that Patterson doesn't know the playbook very well? It seems like he never throws anybody open. Maybe his receivers aren't running their routes properly? Patterson rarely makes the throw until after the receiver gets open. He is able to put enough zip on the ball to make that work. I remember late in the '15 season Rudock was making some throws before the receiver made a cut. He knew what they were going to do and threw the ball where he knew they would be. I haven't seen Patterson do that. The closest I've seen is a couple of times last season when we were inside the 10 he spotted DPJ with single coverage and as soon as he had the ball he made a back shoulder throw that was successful. But that isn't reading a live play, it's making a pre-snap decision.
October 9th, 2019 at 10:46 AM ^
I believe McCafferey would have replaced Patterson by now if not for his near decapitation in Madison. If anything, Harbaugh's pre-season comments about "seeing both quarterbacks" leads me to believe either McCafferey was almost ready or Patterson wasn't. Maybe a bit of both. Obviously the Wisconsin game changed all of that.
Otherwise I have no trouble assuming that Milton is best suited as a backup at this moment.
October 9th, 2019 at 11:00 AM ^
I think Harbaugh is an honest man. I also think he'll say things that help his team, and maybe those things rub the fringes to truth or leave the truth unspoken (i.e. injuries and the like).
So I'm a little bit conflicted on the crux of my reason for believing McCafferey wasn't playing even if healthy, but it was his insistence to the announcers that he was not looking to change QBs. I believe he's being honest with that assertion, saying Patterson is the best (essentially). But... if McCafferey is out and not available anyway, he could be doing the other thing and insisting that they aren't changing QBs: sounds like he's backing Patterson, but could just mean he's the best healthy guy we've got at the moment, we aren't changing. I'll leave it to you, mr. announcer, to ask again when Dylan is back. I believe the former but the latter could be true.
October 9th, 2019 at 12:18 PM ^
For Harbaugh, "best" also factors in experience. He has always given extra points to the more experienced QB. It's too bad Dylan is hurt - we could beat Illinois with him at the helm and it would be a good chance to see what he has. I don't think JH makes a change for PSU or ND, and Maryland is on the road, so not much of a chance there.
I suppose he could give Dylan 1st team reps during the bye week, but to start him against MSU? I don't see it.
TL;DR We're rolling with Shea the rest of the year.
October 9th, 2019 at 11:16 AM ^
I think that's possible, but it's impossible to know right now. McCaffrey will have to get cleared and show it in a game. So far he's really only showcased his running ability. We'll have to see if he can read coverages when he plays more significant snaps. My hunch is he won't get his shot until after the PSU, ND, MSU string of games. Then, is Shea is still struggling and he's healthy, McCaffrey will get a lot more snaps against Indiana to try and prepare him for OSU.
October 9th, 2019 at 2:18 PM ^
I absolutely agree 100%. Putting DCaff in to start the 2nd half against WI was a clear message from Harbaugh. Unfortunately DCaff ended up getting "Mo Lewis'd" and didn't get the chance to be like a former QB who wore #10.
Starting Milton in Happy Valley on a Saturday night in a "white out" atmosphere is a brilliant idea!
October 9th, 2019 at 11:50 AM ^
Weird how nobody ever calls for the 2nd string OL. We assume the staff is smart enough to play the best players there...
October 9th, 2019 at 12:30 PM ^
Then again, on the defensive side, people had been yelling for Mazi and Hinton before Dwumfour came back... coaches are not immune from bias/favoritism, and who knows what kind of "promises" are made even in the context of a "meritocracy".
October 9th, 2019 at 12:12 PM ^
Eh, I don't know how you can be sure. Coach Carr started rotating in Henson over Tom Fucking Brady. Coaches can be wrong. Playing someone new could surprise someone, even the coaches.
October 9th, 2019 at 1:19 PM ^
You never know who can show up when the lights are bright. I’m sure in all the scenarios that the OP mentioned the coaches originally thought the first QB was better.
You don’t know that the best QB is playing - none of us do. We just know that whoever is making that decision thinks that Shea’s the guy. But whether it’s Harbaugh or Gattis making that decision, I think they’ve both shown enough for us to be able to question their judgement. More so Harbaugh because he’s been here longer.
October 9th, 2019 at 1:44 PM ^
Except when they put McCaffrey in for Shea against Wisconsin. Subbing him there was different than throwing him a few snaps against MTSU/Army. He finished the last drive of the 1st Half and played every snap in the 2nd until he was knocked out.
Would he have been the "savior" that this team needed? Who's to say. But, the fact that the staff turned the keys over to him says something, that unfortunately his injury has hidden a bit. Let's suppose that McCaffrey doesn't get hurt and engineers 3-4 scoring drives in the 2nd half (not hard to imagine as Shea almost got 3 scores), who starts against Rutgers?
October 9th, 2019 at 5:42 PM ^
Don’t agree with this at all and feel Dylan is better. Harbaugh is just stubborn when it comes to his starting QB and always has been. He has the belief a starting QB should not be looking over his shoulder all the time. I agree with that but feel after several games he’s not performing then give the number 2 guy a chance and give him the reigns for a while. Can never understand why people will bitch about players at all other positions but you bring up a qb change and people can’t believe that maybe the backup could do a better job. Let’s just say the offense wouldn’t be worse then what we already see by making the change
October 9th, 2019 at 7:35 PM ^
I want Dylan in because I don’t think this team is good enough to win out and it looks like he will be our best option next year. I’m not saying he is better than Shea now, but I think he can get about the same offensive production as Shea.
Michigan plays at Washington week one next year and I think it’s time he gets some experience in the offense. The way I see it, the offense is going to take a few lumps with a new QB. It’s already taking some lumps right now, why not grow with our future QB.
If Shea keeps playing and we win out, then I will definitely be proven wrong. If we lose a couple of games with Shea, come the first Saturday of September next year, we will regret not making the switch.
October 9th, 2019 at 8:03 PM ^
Mcafferey is injury prone so theres that. Almost a guarantee you'll be asking the same questions about benching Mcafferey for Milton next year.
October 9th, 2019 at 9:44 AM ^
Hello Darkness my old friend...
October 9th, 2019 at 9:44 AM ^
Ad infinitum. Ad nauseam.
October 9th, 2019 at 9:47 AM ^
thinking about posting a new thread to the board: what if we cycled through qbs on each play? Shea gets 1st down. Dylan gets second down. Joe on 3rd obviously for the big arm. McNamara gets 4th down. Michael Sessa gets 2 pt conversions. Ren Hefley gets fake punts. Andy Maddox gets any downs where we replay a down because of a penalty. Barrett gets all OT snaps.
good idea or great idea? Discuss
October 9th, 2019 at 9:55 AM ^
Yes. Shuffle them and have them all on the field at the same time each play so we don’t need to sub. That way we can go hurry up and snap the ball with 7 seconds on the play clock.
October 9th, 2019 at 10:05 AM ^
Alternatively we could go zero QB. Snap the ball, hand it to the opposing D-Line. Then rely on the Defense and Special Teams to score our points.
BRB, gotta go start another new thread...
October 9th, 2019 at 9:47 AM ^
Every hour on the the hour we are getting a brand new QB discussion thread because lord knows if you simply post your comment inside one of the other hundred QB discussion threads the world just might miss YOUR VERY IMPORTANT THOUGHTS ON THINGS.
And that would be tragic. Both to you and certainly to the rest of the board.
I eagerly await the 10:00 am QB thread. Only 15 more minutes till it's up.
October 9th, 2019 at 9:51 AM ^
Do these really apply to the Illinois starter thread? I mean, mods nuke it if its really that bad, but I thought it was a more appropriate thread on its own as it was in regards to the rest of the season as opposed to a single game.
October 9th, 2019 at 9:53 AM ^
Why, because you asked the question? This is actually worse because of the Illinois starter thread.
October 9th, 2019 at 11:41 AM ^
Look at my posting history. Does it look like I create a ton of topics based on my thoughts/questions?
October 9th, 2019 at 9:50 AM ^
I'm starting to think that FranklinHatchett's constant posting in a poorly articulated, racially offensive stereotyped language wasn't as bad as the constant QB threads
October 9th, 2019 at 10:27 AM ^
You should quickly reevaluate your position.
October 9th, 2019 at 9:51 AM ^
Illinois is terrible. Shea will start and look good against inferior competition.
October 9th, 2019 at 9:53 AM ^
Wash, rinse, delete.
October 9th, 2019 at 9:54 AM ^
I think it works when the head coach isn't a lizard brain, dinosaur coach.
October 9th, 2019 at 9:55 AM ^
1000% Milton is not Cardale Jones. Come on. Stop with this people. He completed 48% of his passes in HS. And hasn't shown anything yet except a propensity for interceptions. I'm NOT dismissing him though. Now next year could this happen? Does he have a chance to be real good? Sure.
October 9th, 2019 at 10:01 AM ^
Wasnt Cardale a 5th rounder? For perspective, our best QB of the Harbaugh era was a 7th rounder.
Fields, Haskins, Burrows(?), JT, Cardale, Braxton
vs
Shea, Speight, JOK, Peters, Jake etc.
October 9th, 2019 at 10:17 AM ^
Not only is Milton NOT Cardale Jones, but look at what OSU surrounded him with to make him so effective.
If you look at the coaching, players, and overall offense of Jones' OSU with what Milton would have to work with right now its like comparing Apples to . . . rotten bee-covered apples?
October 9th, 2019 at 10:51 AM ^
This was going to be my point, along with the fact that OSU's offense had him throwing to guys that were wide open pretty much all the time. No comparison at all.
October 9th, 2019 at 11:05 AM ^
I mean, this is exactly why I made the comparison: Because what's around him in theory could be similar.
Good OL, athletic WRs and a hugely talented RB.
Jones was probably the third best QB at OSU that year, but once he was it worked.
October 9th, 2019 at 12:05 PM ^
I mean, this is exactly why I made the comparison: Because what's around him in theory could be similar.
Good OL, athletic WRs and a hugely talented RB.
Your idea of "similar" is questionable. That OL blew the Alabama DL off the line. You think our OL could do that? You're comparing one of OSU's best RBs ever to a Freshman with some injury issues.
I like Michigan too, but come back to reality.
October 9th, 2019 at 9:57 AM ^
Harbaugh doesn't have the balls to put in Milton, our best QB. Too many politics / recruiting stuff / names involved / etc.
October 9th, 2019 at 10:10 AM ^
I mean if Shea gets benched, his pro career is over before it starts...and I'm sure some things were promised to get him to transfer here in the first place...
...but to say it has more to do with politics over Shea being more comfortable with the system / McCaff being hurt / Milton being inexperienced, is a stretch.
October 9th, 2019 at 11:14 AM ^
This is quite the dumb take.
October 9th, 2019 at 9:11 PM ^
What is your basis for saying that Milton is Michigan's best QB? There was a very real chance when they offered him a scholarship that he would never be a starting QB anywhere, yet alone at Michigan. He completed less than 50% of his passes all three years he played in High School.
He's also not a runner; he's a pure pro-style QB. He rushed for 6 yards per game as a Sophomore, 4 yards per game as a Junior, and 30 yards per game as a Senior. The consensus is that this offense needs a QB who can do damage in the zone read, but you're saying that the 3rd string QB who is the least running threat out of the three, as well as the least accurate, as well as the least experienced, is the best option. Why?
October 9th, 2019 at 9:57 AM ^
YES!
But only if
- WRs & TEs are taught how to properly block (and catch).
- RBs have vision and wiggle.
- Playbook can create #speedinspace
- coaches have some counter-moves that actually work
- new QB can stand in pocket, make throws prior to a WR making a break (anticipation) , read defenses etc.
October 9th, 2019 at 9:59 AM ^
1) Milton has a higher ceiling and more wiggle than Cardale. Unlike Cardale, Joe is a two sport athlete. He also plays school.
2) I’ve been thinking back to the Amazon series from the 2017 season. Didn’t Haurbaugh and Pep wait until after the Penn St. Game to switch to Peters? I can’t remember if they were looking to demote Wilton though. Speight’s struggles seem very similar to Shea’s
October 9th, 2019 at 10:00 AM ^
Jesu Christe.
October 9th, 2019 at 10:20 AM ^
Cheese & Rice!
October 9th, 2019 at 12:06 PM ^
Fuck sake....
Sorry, I couldn't come up with another clever way to say "Jesus Christ".
October 9th, 2019 at 10:01 AM ^
Are we being punked?
October 9th, 2019 at 10:02 AM ^
Shea Patterson is not the problem with this offense.
I repeat...
SHEA PATTERSON IS NOT THE PROBLEM WITH THIS OFFENSE.
October 9th, 2019 at 10:17 AM ^
He's not THE (TM) problem?
October 9th, 2019 at 10:21 AM ^
Not the only problem, but definitely a problem; lack of running, difficulty with reads, inaccuracy, inconsistency, turnovers....that’s a problem.
October 9th, 2019 at 12:23 PM ^
Caps notwithstanding, I suppose it depends on your definition of "the". You could make a case that Shea is not the primary problem, as some here have.
He's definitely a major issue though, as video evidence of multiple receivers being open by acres shows. Cash in those TDs, and our opinion of things is markedly different.
He's not the only problem, but he's a big part of it.
October 9th, 2019 at 1:15 PM ^
right, This is certainly a situation where if Shea was playing lights out, the other problems might only be "problems" in the same sense that Wisconsin not having a star WR is a "problem."