Semi-OT: 2012 Herbie Awards
http://espn.go.com/college-football/preview12/story/_/id/8284250/top-pl…
Its always a fun to see Herbie's take on things. Despite his misgivings as an ex-Buckeye and his homerism, the dude knows the sport of college football.
Some interesting picks here for sure.
FSU, national champs?
I do not get the yearly fawning over FSU. They've been underwhelming for the past 10 years or so. Basically a better version of ND in my mind.
Denard is the only Michigan player making an appearance, ranked top "ankle breaker" and third-best dual QB. I can't argue against Logan Thomas. But I think DRob is No. 2 at worst.
Herbie likes MSU to win the B1G as well. Hope he is dead wrong on that one.
August 21st, 2012 at 5:18 PM ^
With regards to FSU, EDSBS put it best: "104th rushing offense in college football in 2011, and did that playing in the ACC?" "SOLD!"
August 21st, 2012 at 5:24 PM ^
August 21st, 2012 at 5:26 PM ^
I'd welcome a national championship game with no SEC schools.
I don't get the Logan Thomas thing. Sure, he's got a hell of a quarterback sneak, but his pass efficiency rating wasn't even as high as Denard's was last year, in Denard's first year in a new offense. And he averaged 3.1 yards per carry rushing, with a career long of 23 (!) yards.
Also, Denard had more rushing touchdowns in 2011 than 2010. wft?
August 21st, 2012 at 9:20 PM ^
I was going to say Collin Klein? LOLWUT? But after looking at the numbers, I was amazed to see that he had 27(!) rushing touchdowns. You're absolutely right about Thomas, though. Even with the INTs, I'd still take/be more afraid to face Denard over those two.
Here's the full breakdown:
DENARD:
1176 rush yards, 5.3 ypc
2173 passing yards, 139 QB rating
36 TDs (16 rush, 20 pass)
15 INT
KLEIN:
1141 rush yards, 3.9 ypc
1918 passing yards, 125 QB rating
40 TDs (27 rush, 13 pass)
6 INT
THOMAS:
416 rush yards, 3.0 ypc
3013 passing yards, 135 QB rating
30 TDs (11 rush, 19 pass)
10 INT
August 22nd, 2012 at 8:13 AM ^
August 21st, 2012 at 5:32 PM ^
I give Herby some credit, he is not completely insane like a lot of guys that get national attention with their "expert" analysis, but...
FLORIDA STATE?
OVER USC??
C'mon man!
August 21st, 2012 at 5:47 PM ^
I wouldn't even take Florida State over Clemson next year..... Or Wake Forest..... Or Virginia....... Only reason Virginia Tech didn't beat FSU last year is because they didn't play FSU last year, lol. FSU wont even make the ACC Championship, let alone win the BCS.
August 21st, 2012 at 5:32 PM ^
August 21st, 2012 at 7:48 PM ^
August 21st, 2012 at 5:55 PM ^
Florida State - Notre Dame. The national championship game of preseason hype and inseason failures
August 21st, 2012 at 6:25 PM ^
Of the 23 players in his list, 10 are from the SEC and 4 are from the ACC. After that, there are 3 each from the Big Ten and Big 12, 2 from the Pac-12 and one Independent. It seems like this approximate distribution is becoming fairly routine when it comes to making such picks. I did note, however, that he picks Stoneburner at TE despite the move to WR, although I assume that he may not have known this at the time of writing. He does give a further nod to Denard Robinson as 3rd on the "Most Exciting Player" list, if nothing else.
Like others, I do not get the Florida State pick - FSU has not even won the conference title (one division title, I think) since about 2005, as I recall, and it doesn't seem like they are about to pounce. Their average ranking is in the middle teens (14.8) in the AP preseason poll (just to illustrate - didn't pull the Coaches' polls) since then and they average an 8-5 record in this period. NC game? USC is far more likely than FSU, relatively speaking, Kirk. Geez, that does sound strangely familiar in the Midwest...almost like another school fits this bill, as others have mentioned...
August 21st, 2012 at 6:28 PM ^
August 21st, 2012 at 11:15 PM ^
I would be surprised if he can replace Cousins. Cousins wasn't just a 3-year starter, he was a 3-year captain, which is unheard-of. He leaves a big void just in terms of leadership, not to mention his play.
August 21st, 2012 at 6:16 PM ^
I gotta say the Sparty pick is somewhat poorly thought out, too. They didn't win the B1G last year (but squeezed out an overtime win against Georgia.) Herbie expects them to take the next step in 2012, yet they're going to take a substantial step back having lost almost their entire offense and their best defender, while Michigan, Nebraska, and Wisconsin all stand to improve incrementally over last year. 2011 Sparty was good, but in 2012 I'd knock back their ranking nearer to an improving Illinois with their new coach, top 10 defense, and 3 year starter at qb.
August 21st, 2012 at 6:26 PM ^
I would say the top 3 teams are Michigan, MSU, and Wisconsin. I'm not really sure on the order. We have some big question marks at Dline and WR, but probably have the best starting Oline in the conference to go along with the most dynamic player in the country. Wisconsin should feature their typical smashmouth running game and if O'Brien returns to 2010 form they could be national title contenders. MSU will probably have a top 5 defense in the country, but nobody knows how Maxwell will do. They also have a lot to replace at WR and although I think their Oline will be solid I'm not as sold on it as others.
August 21st, 2012 at 6:34 PM ^
I gotta put Nebraska over them too. Last year Big Red pantsed Spartys established offense 24-3 at home. They get the road test with them this year against the rookie rebuilding offense, and that's after Sparty's already faced (and possibly lost to) Ohio, then Michigan, and Wisconsin back to back. I have to give the edge to Nebraska shutting down the inexperienced, (and likely beat up,) Sparty offense when they meet.
August 21st, 2012 at 6:50 PM ^
I don't see Nebraska scoring much on them.
August 22nd, 2012 at 10:19 AM ^
We get Nebraska at a difficult stretch on our schedule. While we do lose a lot on offense, I would much rather have to rebuild an offense than rebuild a defense. They only lose a few starters on D but it's something like 60% of their production according to one of the diary entries a few weeks ago. After their disappointing defensive output (one that we couldn't manage to move the ball against) last year, I don't expect their D to be anything spectacular this year.
August 21st, 2012 at 7:12 PM ^
You've continued to call their offense inexperienced, or rookies, but that's only the QB and most WRs. The QB has been sitting, waiting for three years. But media accounts he knows every word inside of their playbook. He just has to get on the field before we know what he will be capable of but on paper he sounds legit. We should definitely know by the time they meet Nebraska (or even us, for that matter).
But other than their QB and most WRs (yes, they return at least a couple of WRs who have seen game time), 4/5 of their O Line return and all of their (important) running backs return. One went to the NFL last year but he wasn't even the starter. Arguably wasn't their 3rd stringer by the time the season was over as he was a fumble machine.
So if their plan is to run the ball with that line and their RBs, and have their defense keep them in games (it has been said they lose their "best" defender although I'd argue Gholston or Bullough are just as impactful), they could hang in there. MSU has every potential to be a real pest to a lot of B1G teams this year. Maybe they aren't the breakout BCS bowl contenders we typically see in programs like OSU, but they can certainly be an annoyance just like Iowa or Wisconsin in recent years.
*in before my e-stalker marks this as trolling, even though it could not be more of a rational discussion piece conerning a rival*
August 21st, 2012 at 7:38 PM ^
you're still pretending to be a Michigan fan beachbum?? Valid points you make, just thought you gave that schtick up last year
August 21st, 2012 at 11:06 PM ^
Another jerk that I'll never get an answer from. For MONTHS I have confronted people, I have explained myself to people, and asked for a shred of reasoning as to why I'm seen this way. MOST people just run away and never respond and the ones that do somehow think that because I'm rational, because I approach things from an OBJECTIVE viewpoint, apparently I'm some kind of MSU lover. I can't even comment on our new jerseys anymore.
Alumni (2005) aren't schticks, jackasses. People who have dumped tons of money over the years into tickets, apparel, and reading/posting on a message board aren't schticks. Get over yourselves.
August 22nd, 2012 at 12:34 AM ^
Exactly.
-1 for trolling, no response to be found. You're pathetic.
August 22nd, 2012 at 1:27 AM ^
August 22nd, 2012 at 2:45 AM ^
My insomnia has gotten the best of me tonight, so I wanted to get some numbers behind your posts. Going through your "recent posts" tab, you've made 170 posts. 118 of those have pertained to Sparty, 19 can reasonably be attributed to Michigan, 3 to ND, 2 each to Ohio and Florida and 1 each to Wisconsin and Minnesota. You've made 23 posts about points and 6 on off topic type subjects.
Again:
Sparty: 118
Michigan: 19
ND: 3
Ohio: 2
Florida: 2
Wisconsin: 1
Minnesota: 1
There are also some Georgia posts I counted in the "Sparty" column, since it was during 2011 bowl practices.
Also, you'd need to explain this gem of a reply before people start believing your Michigan claims, wherein you intimated you would quit pretending to be a Michigan fan when people stopped responding. You also used an all-caps version of SPARTAN FOR LIFE when proudly describing Izzo's contract at one point. Even taking you at your word (which I don't) you're a person with an obsession with Michigan State posting on a Michigan blog.
Anyone using any type of logical thinking, however, would conclude that you're straight trolling. Honestly, after looking over your history in-depth, I'm impressed how well you do troll, and that's not sarcastic in the slightest.
MGoBoard, please save me the snarky remarks about time on my hands. At nearly two, there isn't a whole lot to do when you're having trouble getting to sleep.
August 22nd, 2012 at 7:56 AM ^
he be guilty of 118 accounts of "straight trolling"
August 21st, 2012 at 7:47 PM ^
August 21st, 2012 at 8:44 PM ^
August 21st, 2012 at 11:01 PM ^
I would agree and that's why an experienced O line, defense, and running game SHOULD hold a team in those early games enough for a QB to get comfortable.
August 21st, 2012 at 11:11 PM ^
August 21st, 2012 at 11:17 PM ^
August 22nd, 2012 at 12:21 AM ^
You raise some valid points, and personally i'm not discounting State this year or writing them off, but all of my concerns for Michigans losses last year are multiplied for Sparty. They aren't gonna fall of the map this year, and will be competetive, but they lost too much to reasonably be considered favorites in 2012. They lost the starting QB, FB, RB, 3 best WR's, 2 best TE's, and a starting Guard. Last year Sparty passed for 3,535 yards, this year 469 of those yards are still on the team. That is significant. It's also significant that runs up the middle will be much easier this year without Worthy in other teams backfields.
August 22nd, 2012 at 12:04 AM ^
I wonder if the msu offense can stay on the field for more than three downs. you have to think if the stuggle to move the ball down the field, that puts the defense on the field for longer periods of time. If this is the case guaranteed they dont end up with a top 25 defense let alone a top 5.
August 21st, 2012 at 6:40 PM ^
I think Wisc is going to take a STEP BACK from last year, not sure why you think they're going to be better. State has a solid D and as long as their offense can put some points on the board, they're going to be tough to beat.
August 21st, 2012 at 7:44 PM ^
August 22nd, 2012 at 12:27 AM ^
I know they lost dynamic playmaker Russel Wilson, but their new qb OBrien comes in with 17 starts and his pro-style skillset matches up pretty well with Wiscy, I feel, plus he takes care of the rock VERY well in the right system. He was an outstanding pro-style rs freshman at Maryland. He went for 2,438 yards with 22 td's - 8 int's, but when they got a new HC and OC and made him play spread-zone read option he struggled. Playing behind Wiscy's Oline with TE's and Ball controlling the game he should thrive. The two of them should be able to maintain possession and manage games easily. They also return a 1000 yard WR who could outdo last years numbers with OBrien standing in the pocket. Wisconsin's defense is a little underrated, too IMHO. They were outshone by two stars on offense last year but they have 2 All Big Ten First Team outside linebackers returning, and they realistically could be the best linebacking core in the nation this year. Not just the linebackers, though, the whole back 7 is a solid, deep, veteran group who've played in some very big games.
August 22nd, 2012 at 12:35 AM ^
Definitely think Wisconsin will take a step back but they should still be able to cakewalk into the CCG.
August 21st, 2012 at 8:19 PM ^
MSU makes a lot of sense. Their success last year was all about overwhelming D and they bring back almost everybody. Make no mistake, the main reason Michigan is ranked above them by most pundits is just blue blood status.
August 21st, 2012 at 11:19 PM ^
August 21st, 2012 at 11:21 PM ^
August 21st, 2012 at 6:21 PM ^
It is interesting but I have a couple thoughts:
1. No Landry Jones in the Top 5 Pocket Passers
2. No TJ McDonald in the Top 5 Safeties
3. In his all college team, his whole defensive line is defensive ends. Not one defensive tackle.
Wonder why he did those, maybe oversights, maybe not.
At least it opens up my eyes to some new guys to watch for, i.e. some of the UNC players, or David Amerson for example.
August 21st, 2012 at 6:45 PM ^
August 21st, 2012 at 7:30 PM ^
There is some sort of blog fixation on hating FSU here. They are actualy going to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season with a proven senior QB in E.J. Manuel. They return 18 starters from a team that went 9-4 last year.
The reason they were so ineffective last year, especially in the run game, was a function of a decimated offensive line that was injury-plagued all year. They return their entire offensive line outside of one of their tackles, who is being replaced by a JUCO transfer from Switzerland, and get several promising line recruits off their redshirts. Their starting running back also got injured halfway through the year last year (Greene), and they gain a highly touted freshman in the backfield in 5* Mario Pender. They also add 5* DE Mario Edwards, DT Eddie Goldman, and CB Ronald Darby. They even have one of the best punters in the country in Shawn Powell.
Moreover, their schedule is pretty soft with their toughest game being a road contest against VT. They get both Clemson and Florida at home. I understand that FSU has underachieved lately, but if you do just a little bit of research rather than base your opinion on their past lack of success, you would see they are actually damn good this year. Now, I don't think they will win the title like Herbie does, but they could easily end up in the top 5 when all is said and done.
August 21st, 2012 at 7:42 PM ^
August 21st, 2012 at 10:40 PM ^
They should do a home and home to see whether they could possibly turn that equality into a decdided inequality!
/yeh, past results are not a guarantee of future success, etc.
August 21st, 2012 at 8:17 PM ^
Meh. I see your points. However, they're not going to beat VT and probably not Florida either. NC State could be a real pest too; they've seemily got a chip on their shoulder. With the Florida game coming late in the season, I don't see it happening. At least it won't be done "easily."
August 21st, 2012 at 8:26 PM ^
I agree that they probably won't beat VT, and could potentially lose in the ACC championship game, but I really don't think they will lose to Florida at home.
August 21st, 2012 at 9:34 PM ^
August 21st, 2012 at 10:55 PM ^
"... they could easily end up in the top 5 when all is said and done."
Herbstreit's list has three FSU players, all on the defense. I recall last year's FSU-UF game, which was low scoring and sloppy in many ways, but FSU's defense looked very good. Put together a healthy offense and 10 wins and they're in the top 5.
Plus, I think the media football prognosticators want FSU back in the mix ... probably as an offset to the SEC.
August 21st, 2012 at 8:10 PM ^
Herbie=expert:
August 21st, 2012 at 9:14 PM ^
Maybe that's the reason he doesn't give out Herbie awards for offensive lineman..