Let’s Speculate on Harbaugh first draft pick
I’ve been listening to more NFL draft hype these days. With two former coaches leading NFL teams and 16+ players projected to be selected. It sort of keeps the NC alive for me.
Over the weekend it came out that Harbaugh may be “gaming the system” by talking up JJ since the Chargers draft 5th and don’t need a quarterback. The idea being 4generational QBs in a row and then Harbaugh sitting at 5 gets first pick among the non-QBs.
Ok, that is a lot of what ifs but let’s play on this slow Tuesday. Who or what would Harbaugh take? The draft boards love MH Jr. and I fully understand why. But is he a fit culturally in a Harbaugh system that demands WR to block and play team ball? What about Brock Bowers is he a potential Pro-bowler with all the skills at Harbaugh’s favorite position? Everyone says the Chargers need a Center, is there an O-lineman that would warrant the fifth pick?
This is fun for me and so many of you have brilliant football minds. What’s your fancy? Where would our former crazy like a fox coach do with his first pick at the essentially first pick in the draft?
Connor Stalions
Signals success.
All signs point to yes!
Marvin Harrison Jr., hard to pass on him but I'd trade down and take Bowers.
I've seen this on a few projections lately.
This is the right answer. If you are down at #11 or thereabouts, they should have their pick of Bowers, Nabers, Odunze or their top target on the offensive line.
Plus you get an additional late 1st or early 2nd from the trade and you can take Mikey.
Pretty funny that for all the talk of hyping JJ so 4 quarterbacks go first, now we talking about trading down.
0% chance Nabers is there at 11
I don't think Harrison fits the Harbaugh mold.
I liken him to a better version of his dad and think he would do whatever is needed to win. He could afford to be the pass catching stud at OSU because that is exactly what Day wanted/needed out of him. He might have some initial twitches being drafted by Harbaugh, but I don't think it would take very long for him to warm up and do what's asked.
MH Jr strikes me as a HoF player, and he hasn't even taken a snap in the NFL...
Receiving talent.. absolutely. Blocking? I’m not so sure.
In The Game, do you think he could have done more to disrupt the interceptions?
I’d take Bowers… unless you run an offense that doesn’t really need the WRs to block.
He was never asked to do anything like breakup an interception attempt by Day - he was only asked to be an awesome WR, which he excelled at. I do think he would excel at trying to block, if not be very effective until he actually learns how to. But I don't doubt he'd put what he has into learning...
Not saying that you can't get more value out of trading down to get Bowers and another WR (Odunze?) a few selections later. That's certainly a debate to have. But I don't doubt for a minute that MHJ would make himself worthwhile in the Harbaughffense.
I'm not really sure that's a challenging debate. If the Chargers can get Bowers and Odunze by trading one pick or trading the rights to MHJ. They take that and laugh at how lucky they just got on their way to the phone to make the selections.
Harrison is such a great player he will fit any mold you put him in, imho...dude is the best WR I've seen in college since....Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald? Maybe I have a little Fred Jackson in me...
Plus, Harbaugh played with his dad. So there's a 100% chance that JH will take him if available. And well he should.
Harbaugh is more of a Converse cleats guy than a Louis Vuitton cleats guy.
Not much fight when his route gets jumped.
I am pretty confident Harbaugh is not taking a WR in the 1st round.
What's interesting is that I've seen at least a few mock drafts where MHJr isn't even the first WR taken (Nabers from LSU is). Thought it was interesting as the feeling has seemed to be that Harrison is a lock to be the first WR, with the only question being how high he gets picked...
This happens every year. People start speculating that things will be different than the conventional wisdom. Most people seem convinced Harrison is the best in a long time though, not just this year, so I'm pretty confident he'll be the first non-qb to go
Great on balls thrown to him; otherwise…
He could probably adjust to 8 yard slants.
I really like Bowers, but history has shown that drafting a TE that high is almost always a huge mistake. Arguably the best tight ends of the past few years are Kelce, Waller, Andrews and Kittle. They went in rounds 3, 6, 3, and 5.
The tight ends drafted in the top ten in the last couple decades are Pitts, Ebron, Hock, Vernon Davis, and Kellen Winslow. Mostly good tight ends, but no one here was worth a top 10 pick. The Lions in particular are kicking themselves over those Hock and Ebron picks.
In a draft loaded with QBs, OL, and WRs I think drafting a TE super high is a tough sell for any team, but especially the Chargers who have a bunch of other needs.
You forgot that the Lions also took Pettigrew with the first rounder they got for Roy Williams (20th pick overall). With that said, I'm so glad the Lions finally hit on LaPorta. I wasn't happy about it the day of, but man was I wrong.
As for the Chargers, I imagine a trade down will definitely happen as they need to reconfigure I'm sure. I would imagine that him and his staff have the Big Ten, Alabama, Washington, Georgia, and Texas scouted pretty well. Assuming they trade back with the Vikings, I could see OL with the first pick, Mike S with the second pick. Wouldn't shock me to see him draft some Michigan guys in the late rounds, as he knows their work ethic, strengths/weaknesses, and they'd have familiarity with the offense and defense he's going to try to run. Wouldn't shock me to see them wind up with Harrell, Blake, Zinter, and Mike in Harbaugh's first draft class.
Edit: Forgot about Roman.
That used to be the case, but recently has changed. Pitts is awesome but QBs have been terrible. Hockenson been very good, LaPorta has been next level, McBride was second round as well and been great. All draft picks are a crap shoot, but Bowers seems pretty awesome - he was Georgia's team last year.
It absolutely has not changed. The best TEs in the game have been drafted in later rounds and the TEs drafted super early have not lived up to their draft pick.
Pitts is good but NOT worth the 4th overall pick he was taken at.
Hockenson is also good, but also not worth the 8th pick in the draft. Neither Hock or Pitts has helped their teams win games like you'd expect out of a top pick.
LaPorta is great, but wasn't drafted in the 1st. This doesn't really prove anything other than you don't have to draft TEs super high in the 1st round to find good ones. Same with McBride.
Bowers is not your average tight end compared to most “first round caliber” tight ends. I think the guy could be a difference maker from the jump
That's the same thing they say about a TE every few years. Kyle Pitts was supposed to be a difference maker and "GeNeRaTiOnAL" talent just three years ago, and while he is good, the Falcons absolutely should not have drafted him that high. He hasn't helped them much.
Harbaugh definitely will be tempted to take Bowers at 4 (assuming no trade down). But even he will sober up and take one of the top receivers if they are available.
The thing that isn't talked about (among fans) with Bowers is that if you're taking him in the top 15 picks, you're not getting the same value according to the salary cap that you would if you took one of the elite WRs instead.
The cost to franchise-tag a WR is about 22M, while tagging a TE is nearly half that cost at 12.5M... which means that – if you have the tenth pick in the draft and will automatically be giving the selected player a 5yr/22M contract – giving that contract to a TE will immediately make him one of the 20 highest paid players at his position, while a receiver under that contract would be outside the top 40 or 50.
Again, that's not an argument to take a worse WR instead of an elite TE, but if both are elite according to your scouts, then the tie goes to the receiver because he's more valuable.
The should trade that pick down to Minnesota or Denver and use that pick on a lineman or receiver. They have no wide receivers on their roster, and there are a lot of talented receivers this class.
Brock Bowers makes the most sense IMO. Harbaugh loves some man ball with 12 personnel while still having receiving threats.
Luckily for the Chargers, I don't think there's alot that they can screw up. If the four Qbs go first, he'll have his pick of MHJ, Alt or Bowers to pick from and I don't think any of those would be a bad pick. But this is a great draft for the Chargers and their needs - which seem to be OL, CB and WR. All those positions have a decent amount of depth. Cs don't usually go til the 20s and beyond, so I can't imagine them taking one in the first unless they trade down.
MHJ is the right pick in my opinion.
Wouldn't be shocked to see Jim end up with at least 2 of Sainristil, Zinter, Keegan, Corum, Johnson and Barrett in later rounds.
MHJ is arguably the best pure talent in the entire draft, but I wonder if he's the right fit for a Harbaugh offense. Harbaugh is going to want to pound the rock, unleash his tight ends, and while he will throw the ball, his receivers being able to block is probably just as important to him.
I don't think MHJ will be there to pick anyway, but even if he is, its not completely insane to believe that Harbaugh would pass on him. Not because MHJ isn't worthy of the pick, but because Harbaugh's philosophy on offense wouldn't allow him to get the full value of MHJ that he should with picking him fifth overall.
That said, MHJ is probably the kind of talent that you sit there and say "get him on my team however you can, and adapt your gameplan to suit his skills."
So what the heck do I know.....
Agreed here. I don’t think Harbaugh hates throwing. I feel like, even after nine years, he never found his QB until JJ and by then he had the offense built around RB and never found a true WR 1(while having a throwing QB). This led to the “out culture them” strategy because the recruiting situation was so impossible… but I digress
Could be my blue glasses but I think Harbaugh would have a blast with MHJ and will take a WR regardless (Nabers?)
Since he had been clearing the locker room. Imagine how much easier it is to run when you have a true WR1 that stretches the D!
But what do I know either. Haha!😂
Scouting reports generally consider MHJ to be an average to plus blocker for a college WR. He's generally considered the best blocker among the top 3 receivers.
First, I love that Jim is already in their heads.
He is really in a good spot here - with a lot of talent on the board (but unfortunately a lot of need in various roles).
I think he either goes with an offensive lineman or trades down to take Bowers later.
Jim already driving the NFL guys nuts is hilarious. I don't understand what it is about him that makes people lose their minds in suspicion and paranoia. It's obvious that his praise for JJ is not a recent thing to game the NFL draft, he was calling JJ a generational quarterback last summer and spent the whole season calling him the best QB in Michigan history
Nothing says Harbaugh is in the heads of the NFL teams. That's only being inferred by the media covering the NFL. And the media is notoriously gullible.
We only saw MH Jr. at his worst, against Michigan. Or at least most of us have. Certainly true for me. If he's anywhere near as good as people say he would be my choice if you can't get a 10 year o-lineman. If his blocking is dubious, there are solutions to that. Have him run fly routes on run plays. Are YOU not covering him?
OL or TE probably makes the most sense for Harbaugh. Even if MHJ is there, I don't think Harbaugh's philosophy would really allow MHJ to be everything he could be with the Chargers. I wouldn't be surprised if Harbaugh passed on MHJ if he was there. Not because MHJ isn't good enough. He absolutely is. But if Harbaugh's tenure at Michigan is any indication, his teams will not be built by going through the air. My bet is Harbaugh will believe he has bigger needs.
That said, I doubt MHJ will be there to pick anyway. Fifth overall pick, in my opinion, is way too high to take a guy like Brock Bowers, so if that's who you really want, I trade down with someone who's desperate for a QB (Vikings or Broncos, probably), and Bowers is probably still there at pick 11 or 12. Pick up some draft capital and still get your guy. Otherwise, I just take the best OL available.
Final note: for anyone who's rolling their eyes at Harbaugh over gushing about McCarthy's abilities:
1) Don't you think he's in a position to know what McCarthy can or can't do better than most anyone on this planet?
2) If he can prop "his guy" up, get him drafted higher, while also simultaneously give his team a better pick at whoever it needs (Chargers most certainly don't need a QB), its a win-win for both McCarthy and Harbaugh. I bet Harbaugh would love nothing more than to have pick of the first non-QB off the board.
You don’t pass on Marv. They got rid of their receivers due to cap issues. He’s a no-brainer if he’s there.
Not only do they have a big hole to fill at WR, but another thing to consider is that Harbaugh played with Marvin Harrison Sr. for a couple years with the Colts. Harrison caught the first TD of his career from Jim Harbaugh. Jim loves those kinds of football stories, I bet he is all in on drafting MHJ
Sell Herbert, take JJ.
I know, I know, no trade clause, but still...
Even if Herbert agreed, it would be a $90M dead cap charge.
Blocking is generally mentioned as a plus (or at worst neutral) in Harrison's game and I've never read anything but good things about his attitude. Just because he's a Buckeye doesn't mean we need to be haters. He's a generational wide receiver prospect.
Well said. I’m not trying to hate. I loved watching his dad. Even rooted for him when that TN QB was throwing to him.
I don’t know much about MHJ other than his struggles against the good guys! But it is interesting to me because in my mind Harbaugh wouldn’t normally pick a WR with his first pick in a draft. But, that would be the obvious consensus. The fact he is a Buckeye etc… just seemed to make a fun board conversation.
MHJ didn't exactly "struggle" against Michigan.
2022 - 7 catches, 120 yars, 1 TD
2023 - 5 catches, 118 yards, 1 TD
An almost impossible to cover WR on a rookie contract would be a great asset to a team with a coming-in-to-his-prime Herbert as the QB.
Yeah, he definitely didn't struggle. But the biggest concern I'd have is that he seemed to make a lot of "business decisions" when the ball wasn't coming his way...
FWIW the Will Johnson INT was targeting him, and getting muscled off the ball should count against him.
Rod Moore's pick was aimed at him too, but that was more a bad throw.
Generational as in, every year is a new generation.