Spring Roster Overanalysis 2022 Comment Count

Seth March 3rd, 2022 at 12:00 PM

Michigan released a spring roster update this week. Does it have much information in it? Nope. Are Yellowpages even thick enough for a kid to sit on anymore? Nope. Are we going to do The Jerk anyway? Of course we are. Other sites that cover Michigan checked it for things a casual fan might want to know about. But here at MGoBlog, we (use various Excel functions to) notice everything. Let’s =if(B2=vlookup all the columns!

Here’s my comprehensive roster file, and our updated Depth Chart by Class. Let's rosterize!

Many Former DTs Are Not On It

Consider this the exit post for the following contributors:

DT Donovan Jeter. I held out hope that last year’s top backup would come back for his 6th year, but Jeter hired an agent and is going to try to catch on in the NFL.

DT Jess Speight. Speight could have taken a COVID 6th year but the program is listing him as out of eligibility.

DT Jack Stewart. This one passed unnoticed somehow despite Stewart being a scholarship player. Recruited as an OL, Stewart tried to make the switch to nose tackle last year and never resurfaced. Just last week Stewart made MLive’s list of players returning. He was going into his 4th season but with COVID and a redshirt year he had sophomore eligibility, so there was plenty of time left to transition if it was going to happen. Apparently it is not. I’ll see if his name is in the portal; Stewart enrolled in Fall 2019, so if he took spring/summer classes along the way (most players do) it’s plausible he could have a degree before next season.

DT Joey George. Another walk-on DT who threatened to get significant snaps at times last season. He appeared in 9 games over his career, but only in garbage time. He made UFR exactly once: on the last play of the 2021 season, moving a Georgia OL off the point of attack then missing the tackle to give up a 1st down and run out the clock.

OL Griffin Korican. Korican was a Class of 2018 preferred walk-on who flipped to Michigan from Oregon State late, and occasionally popped up on depth charts, playing in 8 games. With a redshirt and the COVID year he had 2 years of eligibility remaining, but stayed 4 years so I assume he’s graduating.

You’ll note four of these guys are all from the defensive tackle depth chart. Adding Chris Hinton gives us five interior linemen who got on the field last year who left with eligibility remaining. Tack on transfers Jordan Whittley and Elijah Pierre, who both ran out of eligibility, and it brings that number to seven(!) DTs from last year’s depth charts who won’t be on this one.

This is kind of significant, in that it puts a lot of pressure on younger guys to be ready. Mazi Smith is back, fortunately, and Kris Jenkins came on late in the year to look poised for a breakout. However DT/DE Julius Welschof is reportedly gunning (or depending on whom you ask, leading) for one of the open “OLB” jobs, as is Michael Morris. Everybody else on the roster was a freshman last year (Rayshaun Benny, George Rooks, Ike Iwunnah), or arrives this year (Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant). Considering Michigan likes to play up to three of these guys at a time, that is a thin depth chart indeed.

Presumably this means they’re confident Benny is ready to step in, some of the Don Brown anchors (Welschof, Morris, Gabe Newburg, Dom Giudice) can move down, and/or someone else from the list of young DTs is a better option than the departed. It’s not a panic moment yet, but it’s a concern, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they seek help from the transfer portal this spring.

[After THE JUMP: Progressively less interesting things to glean]

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There Aren’t Many Offensive Linemen

Two more (Lorenzetti and Gentry) arrive in fall, but it’s weird to see a roster with just 13 scholarship offensive linemen on it. That’s what comes from losing Stueber and Filiaga before their eligibility was up, plus a few other guys from their generation who switched positions last year. The result is the rows of shark teeth enjoyed the past few seasons have settled into something more like waves.

  • Tackles: Hayes and Barnhart or Jones starting, Persi and El-Hadi probably a year out, Bounds and Gentry developing.
  • Guards: Zinter and Keegan starting, Atteberry a backup, Anderson, Lorenzetti, and Jones developing.
  • Centers: Oluwatimi starting, Crippen the heir apparent.

That’s normal: They have good starters and backups at all three spots who seem ready to play, which is what you really ask out of a healthy roster. But it would be a good sign for the future if we were to start hearing great things about the youth. Crippen and Atteberry were already on the field in garbage time last year, and it’s so early on the schedule for Bounds and the true freshmen that anything from them is gravy right now. The names we’ll be listening for in spring are Persi, and to a lesser degree El-Hadi and Anderson. Griffin Korican probably walked because the open tackle job is going to Karsen Barnhart or Trente Jones, but I would like it if someone dropped that he was being overtaken by the kids as well.

Of course walk-ons could factor in here as well, but there are only three of them, all from last year’s rosters. They are:

Kraig Correll, a 6’4”/311 center or guard with Jr/5th eligibility. Man most responsible for last year’s “Run the Damn Ball” t-shirts. That he’s still around as a grad student means Michigan wants him to be, unless that means Correll graduates this spring and doesn’t return in fall.

Noah Stewart, a 6’7”/274 tackle prospect from the 2020 class. He’s probably still developing, but Stewart, like Korican, was one of those OL prospects who seemed to have a better chance than the typical walk-on of becoming an FBS-caliber player. He came here tight end shaped, a 6’7”/245 baseball and track athlete out of Muskegon. The only service that ranked him was 247, who placed him a 3-star, #57 in the state and the #204 offensive tackle. Dude like that could grow into a Jack Conklin or Ryan Ramczyk, but it’s a crapshoot, and takes time besides. Stewart was up 30 pounds by last fall (whence the 274 was reported) but that’s still a way’s away from 300. Worth keeping an eye on.

Peter Simmons III, a 6’3/291 interior prospect from Bonita Springs, FL. Standard heady walk-on grow-a-center option with offers from Brown and Butler who could be a Vastardis down the line. He joined the team last fall so that would be post-Crippen.

Position Switchers

There are just two of consequence—the two CB/Slot guys from Massachusetts—and they’ve been talked about on this site and others.

Mike Sainristil: WR—>DB. My take is it may not be permanent. It makes sense now: Ronnie Bell returns and fits best in the slot, which was split between Sainristil and Henning last year. Wide receiver is also very deep, versus cornerback which just shed a bunch of players, has true freshmen expected to leap most of the rest, and saw their 2021 snaps leader leave early for the NFL because he’s one of those players. This may not be THE reason but putting Sainristil with the CBs does move an experienced player with an exemplary attitude into a room that’s made mostly of young guys and old guys who haven’t played.

I think the Wolverine guys are all for it because they more than the other sites saw Sainristil at cornerback in their recruiting analysis. They could be right: Virginia Tech, the team he decommitted from, pegged Sainristil for defense too. I think we’ve seen enough at this point to consider Sainristil an excellent slot receiver, and when Ronnie Bell leaves next year a move back to offense might not be a bad idea. Harbaugh has always liked cross-training his “program” guys (see: Winovich, Ben Mason) when he has the opportunity. I won’t discount the move to cornerback being permanent, but I wouldn’t close the door on a move back either.

Eamonn Dennis: DB—>WR. So then why move Dennis, who’s a similar player but one year younger, to receiver? Why, because cornerback wasn’t working out for him, duh. Dennis never threatened the depth chart, and clearly wasn’t going to, but he’s still got a lot of eligibility left after redshirting and getting a COVID year (he’s the same

Jaylen Harrell: DL—>LB. This could be a nothing distinction since he played “both” last year as the 5-2 quasi-DE. The interesting thing isn’t the switch, but that there’s a “DE” designation on this roster. Does that mean Harrell is going to be more of an ILB this year instead of a hybrid? Possibly? We’ll discuss that in the next section.

Trevor Andrews: DB—>LB. Walk-on Fr/So who was 6’2”/218 last year, so presumably he’s grown into the LB range, at least enough to reunite with high school teammate Junior Colson.

Joe Taylor: DB—>WR. Not tall walk-on Fr/So ATH. Not unusual for those guys to bounce around.

Christian Boivin: DB—>RB. Need to fill out the RB depth chart, played RB in high school.

Making Sense of the DE—>LB Spectrum

The nature of the “Multiple” defense blurs the lines between defensive tackle, defensive end, and outside linebacker. That’s not unusual, but Michigan has odd boxes. Options on this roster include DL, DE, LB, and one guy designated a “DE/LB.” The designations haven’t changed from last year. Here’s where they’re listed:

  • Defensive End: Derrick Moore, Michael Morris, Braiden McGregor, TJ Guy, Gabe Newburg, Taylor Upshaw, and Kechaun Bennett.
  • Defensive Line: Mazi Smith, Kris Jenkins, Julius Welschof, Rayshaun Benny, George Rooks, Ikechuckwu Iwunna, Dominic Giudice, and Mason Graham
  • DE/LB: Paul Jokisch

I highlighted those that were interesting. Morris ended the year backing up Hutchinson, so it’s not a surprise, but he was the DE/DT tweener last year and given the DT depth I thought they would want to move him inside if possible. Newburg was another “Anchor” recruit to Don Brown, though at 6’5”/251 (exactly the same as RS freshman TJ Guy) it’s not weird that he’s a DE either.

The inclusion of Julius Welschof among the “DL” raises an eyebrow. He played DT last year, but was rumored to be in the mix at DE. Perhaps they’re using him as more of an Anchor type? Also having Giudice here pays off the recruiting profile that suggested a move inside was in his future. Jokisch is the son and namesake of the TE-sized Harbaugh era WR and cousin of OL who came through the program recently; I didn’t know this one (who played for Seaholm) was on the team

Early Enrollee/Transfer Numbers

#16 QB Jayden Denegal. You rang, sir? Yes, the kid is umpteen times more likely to have watched Denard Robinson than John Navarre, but Navarre is a man worth celebrating, and Denegal is a pretty close comp to Navarre’s recruiting profile.

#10 QB Alex Orji. Continuing with the theme of QBs taking the numbers of famous Michigan QBs of yore, #10 could also be used at linebacker (Devin Bush) or receiver (Jeremy Gallon), but we all know he’s honoring the Massachusetts legend, Todd Collins. Todd Collins right? You all knew I meant Todd Collins?

#0 WR Darrius Clemons. They say Anthony Carter wore #1 to put a target on his back.

#13 WR Tyler Morris. I think of Greg Matthews, who is not the guy I think of when it comes to Tyler Morris. Eddie McDoom, maybe. Ronnie Bell, definitely, and Morris wore #8 in high school. But of course Ronnie Bell is still here.

#4 WR Amorion Walker. Throw it to the guy who looks like Nico! Or Marquise Walker. Anyway since there’s no Brandon Minor/De’Veon Smith bruiser back in this class I’m good with giving it to the Grow-a-Collins.

#18 TE Colston Loveland. Big fan of this. No he’s not the first tight end to wear the number, so long as you acknowledge that our late friend and Mad Magician Leo Koceski wore it while playing “right halfback” which was basically Erick All’s job last year. Michigan’s been slapping 80s on all their TEs so they can bunch them together in the locker room so this is a departure. Wonder if they’ll switch it like they did with Eubanks (who also wore #18 for a year) when he graduates to the main room. I hope not. I like it when TEs have receiver numbers because opponents forget that guy is going to block your face off. It’s annoying from teams I scout though.

#55 C Victor Oluwatimi. On defense it’s the “kinda like 56” number but on offense it’s spent a lot of time on backups. Andy Christopfel emerged to start with it in 2003.

#60 OL Connor Jones. The Messner number on defense, doesn’t have that history on offense but it’s been worn by a lot of guys who are still around the building like Mark Donahue, Tom Coyle, and Jack Miller. Also worn by Fielding Yost Jr.

#55 DT Mason Graham. Well “Graham 55” on a Michigan jersey is already a thing (no relation). Jibreel Black wore it as a tackle, and Rasheed Simmons and David Ojabo both donned it when they were ends.

#8 DE Derrick Moore. Oooh, a low number for a lineman. Like it. This particular number however is bound to make me think Jonas Mouton is out of position at least once.

#3 DB Keon Sabb. I can behind the Marlin Jackson/Tripp Welborne number on a jack-of-all-trades hybrid slot guy. Stevie Brown is probably the closer comp, or the exact one considering Brown was also a borderline 5* safety who moved to a hybrid linebacker role. Shone Peoples and Marvin Robinson were less heralded #3s in a similar role. If he’s Tripp 2.0 that’d be swell.

#2 CB William Johnson. I thought he was going to wear #4 or his dad’s #28, but okay, #2, no pressure. Weird that other defensive backs have shied away from it since; Cato June took it after Woodson, but the only cornerback recruit to wear it as a freshman was JT Turner (Countess switched to #2 from #18).

#24 CB Myles Pollard. The *other* Woodson number, but also one with a good history in Michigan secondaries with Lavert Hill and Charles Drake (RIP). George Johnson III had it until this year.

#12 CB Kody Jones. It’s still going! The last guy to don #12 as a freshman at Michigan and play out his eligibility wearing it was friend of the blog Brandon Williams, 1999-2002. It is my thing, not his, that I point this out.

Since B-Will graduated the number 12 has gone through 12 guys, never going out of circulation and usually occupied by more than one player. And yet not a single one of them managed to put it on as a freshman then use up all his eligibility in it.

  • QB Matt Gutierrez (2002-2005) Got injured, got stuck behind Henne, and transferred for his 5th year.
  • WR Landon Smith (2003-2005) was a walk-on who switched to #2 for 2006.
  • QB David Cone (2006-2008) switched to #17 in 2009.
  • CB JT Floyd (2008-2010) came close, but changed to #8 for 2011. He also got a LOT better that year so no complaints.
  • WR Roy Roundtree (2009-2011) didn’t redshirt, but he took over the Legends #21 jersey from Junior Hemingway in 2012.
  • QB Devin Gardner (2012) wore #12 for a year and a day, switching to it from #7 (so he’s already disqualified) and then switching to #98 in the 2nd game of the 2013 season.
  • LB Allen Gant (2012-2014) was here for four years but redshirted one, changed to his father Tony’s #14 in 2015, then didn’t come back for a 5th year.
  • P Blake O’Neill (2015) arrived with just one year of eligibility so he can’t count.
  • QB Alex Malzone (2015-2016) switched to #15 as a RS sophomore then transferred.
  • RB Chris Evans (2016-2018) could have counted despite having to sit out in 2019 but when he came back in 2020 he changed his jersey to #9 to let McNamara be #12. Kind of him, but the curse continued to…
  • LB Josh Ross (2017-2021) wore it for five seasons including an injury redshirt in 2019 and the COVID year in 2020, but since those didn’t count against his eligibility and he could have come back in 2022, it’s now up to Cade.
  • QB Cade McNamara (2019-???) has sophomore eligibility so he has to stick on the team through 2024. Do it Cade!

If 12th man Cade McNamara can’t break the Curse of #12, it’s up to Kody Jones, who’s the most B-Will like player Michigan has recruited since the Nebraska speedster. It could happen.

What’s Left for the Fall Guys?

The rest of the freshman class includes RB CJ Stokes, TE Marlin Klein, OT Andrew Gentry, OL Alessandro Lorenzetti, DT Kenneth Grant, LB/DE Micah Pollard, LB Jimmy Rolder, LB Deuce Spurlock, S Zeke Berry, and S Damani Dent.

Michigan has six (re-)retired numbers: #11 (for the three Wistert brothers), #21 (Desmond Howard), #47 (Bennie Oosterbaan), #48 (Gerald Ford), #87 (Ron Kramer), and #98 (Tom Harmon). That leaves the following numbers available:

  • Offense: 19, 20, 23, 25, 28, 29, 32, 33, 34, 35, 39, 42, 43, 44, 46, 56, 57, 59, 63, 64, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 73, 78, 85, and all the 90s except Harmon’s.
  • Defense: 0, 4, 9, 10, 13, 15, 28, 30, 36, 37, 38, 40, 45, 51, 53, 57, 59, all of the 60s, 70s, and 80s, 93, 95, and 97.

Unused jerseys right now are 28, 57, 59, 63, 64, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 73, 78, 85, 95, and 97.

Number Changes

There are only three differences from last fall, and one of those is old:

  • RB Leon Franklin: 34—>40. This happened last year when he got on the field.
  • ATH Eamonn Dennis: 13—>37. Coincides with a move to offense, after Tyler Morris took #13.
  • OL Mica Gelb: 55—>50. Walk-on stepped aside for Oluwatimi.

The Groza Adds an Inch

Jake Moody was 6’0” on every previous roster, but was upgraded to 6’1” on this one.

Rosters vs the Services: Fight.

The roster used last year’s roster weights and 247’s listed weights for the newcomers, so there’s nothing to learn there. However a few guys had differences from their 247 profiles.

  • WR Amorion Walker: Listed at 180. He was 175 to 247, 170 to Rivals and ESPN, and 160 to On3.
  • TE Colston Loveland: Listed at 6’5” on the roster; he was 6’4” to ESPN but 6’5” to the other services.
  • DT Mason Graham: Listed at 6’3”/292. ESPN, Rivals and On3 nailed his height at 6’3”, while 247 said 6’4”. They all had him 292 or rounded up to 295.
  • CB Kody Jones: Checked in at 5’11”. He was 5’10” to On3, 5’11.5” to 247, and 6’0” to Rivals and ESPN.

Double Positions

Of the kicking specialists only the starters are listed at just K or P. Tommy Doman, Rhett Anderson, and Charlie Mentzer are listed as “K/P.”

RS freshman walk-on Henry Donohue is listed as an “RB/S.” I also mentioned earlier that Paul Jokisch Jr., son of the TE-shaped Harbaugh-era receiver, as a “DE/LB” already—the other weirdness is the Class of 2020 Seaholm alum wasn’t on the roster the last two seasons.

Walk-on Hellos

We don’t get to learn the names of walk-ons when they are freshman because of some silly grayshirting rules that prevent teams from stuffing guys who were really scholarship players onto their rosters as recruits then giving them scholarships some other way. It’s weird, okay?

Anyway that means we have a few first-timers on the roster, including three older ones. Here’s what I could dig up on each of them with a cursory google. Grade given is in school; presume any “sophomore” is a redshirt freshman, and anyone older than that got a COVID shirt and a redshirt. They are:

  • RB(ATH) William McBride. A 5’9”/202 sophomore out of Seaholm. Had offers from Bowdoin and Valpo as a WR/CB. On the roster as a RB, which is what he played for the Mapes. Reportedly not related to Tim McBride, who was Seaholm’s ski coach back when I was skiing for rival Groves.
  • RB/S Henry Donohue. He’s 5’11”/199 out of Bronxville, NY. He’s a lacrosse star and was the MVP of New York Class C/D ball, which is a lower classification. Might become a Tru Wilson down the line.
  • DE/LB Paul Jokisch. A 6’3”/230 junior out of Seaholm. Son of Paul, nephew of Dan, cousin of Other Dan. They keep pumping them out, don’t they.
  • LB Joel Metzger. A smallish (6’1”/205 last year) LB who transitioned from RB. All-state player out of Battle Creek.
  • LB Ryan Zimmerman (NNTRZ). Was a TE/LB/DE prospect with a Tulane offer in 2020. Now he’s a 6’2/220 junior transfer from Johns Hopkins.
  • LB Philip Quansah. A linebacker listed at 5’8”/202 from Clayton Northmont, that Ohio school that produced Rod Moore, Gabe Newburg, and Kaleb Ringer. I’m going right to the Hudl on this one and yep, that is exactly what I thought a “5’8”/202 MLB from the same school as Rod Moore” would look like.
  • K/P Charlie Mentzer. No relation to Joel (name spelled differently). Kicked and punted for Detroit Catholic Central. Was Kornblue’s #26 kicker (Tommy Doman was #2) for 2021, chose Michigan over Yale. Here’s Charlie getting his shirt signed by head coach Jim Harbaugh as a kid. We are all dust.

Also QB Andy Maddox returned this spring. He was on the team in 2019 and 2020, but “contributed as a student coach” in 2021.

 

Comments

Seth

March 3rd, 2022 at 12:42 PM ^

I don't like match because it returns a position in the array, and the position of data is constantly changing by however I sorted. Much easier to =vlookup(Cade McNamara,[Existing Roster Data],[header], false) where my headers correspond to standard data like ht, wt, position, class, etc, did they redshirt, etc.

It only gets cumbersome when it's combined with IF functions (e.g. If the player was on the roster last year compare his weight to last year).

Bleedin9Blue

March 3rd, 2022 at 1:00 PM ^

MATCH returns the position but INDEX takes the position and looks up the value for that position.  Thus, while it's true that the position will change when sorting, it practice it doesn't matter because MATCH will still find the right item.

However, the 2 main benefits most users see with INDEX-MATCH vs. VLOOKUP are:

  1. INDEX-MATCH does not necessitate that what you want to look up in the table is to the right of the key you're searching by.
    1. For example, if the table listed # in the leftmost column then last name in the second-to-leftmost column, you could not use VLOOKUP to find # using last name unless you either moved the columns or made a helper column with =# to the right of last name.  INDEX-MATCH though could handle it without moving columns or a helper column.  You'd use: =INDEX(#Column, MATCH(LastNameBeingSearchFor, LastNameColumn, 0))
  2. INDEX-MATCH does not requiring counting columns.
    1. VLOOKUP requires that you specify how many columns over from your key value the return value will be.  Yes, you can make it flexible by using COUNTA and/or COUNTIF functions, but if you ever hard code in a number then insert a column - your VLOOKUP will be wrong.
    2. INDEX-MATCH allows you to simply tell Excel "this column [the index column] is where the resulting value is.  And this column [the match column] is where the key value [the value I already know] is."  So long as you're using an actual named table, you'll be able to insert columns, delete columns, and move columns without affecting your formula.
      1. And once you get good with INDEX-MATCH you can even give INDEX an array [a multi-column table] rather than a list [a single-column table] then use INDEX to also look up the table header.  That makes your formulas truly immune to changing table sizes.

TLDR: INDEX-MATCH is the superior Excel function and my many years of experience has multiple reasons why.

njvictor

March 3rd, 2022 at 12:32 PM ^

Obviously OLB and DE are kinda the same in this defense, but moving Harrell to ILB would be a mistake imo. I was really impressed by his limited snaps this past year and thought with a little more weight could really be an Ojabo clone. 

My prediction for this next season is that our starting DEs will be Morris and Guy