Previously: The Story. Podcast 12.4A, 12.4B, 12.4C. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Interior OL. Offensive Tackle. Defensive End.

  Depth Chart

ANCHOR	Yr.	NOSE TACKLE	Yr.	3-TECH	Yr.	WEAK DE	Yr.
Kwity Paye	Sr.	Donovan Jeter	Jr.*	Carlo Kemp	Sr.*	Aidan Hutchinson	Jr.
Taylor Upshaw	So.*	Jess Speight	Jr.*	Chris Hinton	Fr.*	Luiji Vilain	So.*
Gabe Newburg	Fr.*	Mazi Smith	Fr.*	Julius Welschof	So.*	David Ojabo	Fr.*

This was a disaster zone last year that saw two different converted offensive players start games. One, Ben Mason, was a 270-pound former fullback. The other, Jess Speight, flipped from offensive line the week before fall practice started. Michigan had one functional Big Ten DT, Carlo Kemp, and survived because the defensive ends were bailing water out of the boat almost as fast as the DTs could shove it in. Don Brown used a variant of the word desperate to describe the situation:

Last year when we counted on playing a lot more of our three-down package stuff, which we desperately needed to, doing it with the abilities of Uche and a lack of total depth numbers at the defensive line.

Of course, "survived" is a relative term. Wisconsin rushed for 359 yards at 6.3 an attempt. Ohio State went for 264 on 5.3 YPC. Alabama forgot to run for a half and still put up 153 yards at 5.1 YPC. A better way to put it may be "did not survive."

A year later everyone's back and older and better shaped. It sound like they have three-ish functional defensive tackles:

“Between (Carlo Kemp), Hinton and Jeter, we feel really good about our inside three,” he said.

Maybe it'll be enough? Relatively?

[After THE JUMP: somebody step up or the pumpkin gets it]

THREE-TECH: JUST VARIOUS GUYS WOULD BE FINE

RATING: 2.5.

Fifth year senior CARLO KEMP was Michigan's only defensive tackle last year. This is only a slight exaggeration. Kemp had a cup of coffee at linebacker when he arrived; last year he was a 286-pound nose tackle teams could double with impunity because the guy next to him wasn't going to punish single blocking, ever.

If this sounds like a recipe for struggling, ahyup. Kemp scraped over even against MTSU, then had dive duty against Army. Then Wisconsin rolled in. Kemp racked up 8.5 positives by firing off as hard as possible… and 14 negatives for firing off as hard as possible:

Carlo Kemp is our up and down guy of the week, it appears?

There isn't a Jonas Mouton award for the guy who has the biggest mark in his second-highest column, but maybe now there is and that's Kemp this week. He had a strange game seemingly based on the idea that he couldn't win a fair fight against the Wisconsin OL. He spent his day firing absurdly hard off the LOS, attempting to time up the snap and succeeding sometimes. This should have been a zero-yard gain if the edge guys actually contain it after Kemp blows up the play design:

NT #2

Kemp was also the major source of resistance on that almost-goal-line stand, again by being shovy and reckless—although you  can only be so reckless at the one.

The flip side of this was Kemp's tendency to run eight yards deep whenever Wisconsin ran a draw or trap. Here the FB can't even block him because he's so far upfield:

DT #2 to top

Seven yards upfield on a draw:

DT #2 to bottom

And this was literally the next play:

DT #2 to left, moving right

Cumong man.

That's as good a summary of his season as any. Kemp didn't think he could win fair fights against high-end offensive lines so he attempted to tilt things in his favor by going real fast. Sometimes it worked; sometimes he left the center of the defense so fast he achieved escape velocity.

Against the middling he was solid. He had a +4.5 against Iowa, getting blown out just once and winning several one on one blocks. This is an entirely different approach than what he was doing against Wisconsin:

Priority one is control your man, then shed.

The next week he picked up a +7 against Illinois, who we perpetually remind people has a decent OL. Again he was able to stay in control and string things out instead of shooting directly upfield:

By MSU (+6) I noted that he was a "consistent winner against this level of competition."

Then Ohio State rolled into town and ran duo at him all day. Michigan got crushed in the middle, and then Khaleke Hudson started cheating to it, and then JK Dobbins was ripping off 20 yard chunks outside the tackles because there was no edge. Kemp was hurt for the bowl game.

2020 should be more of the same. Kemp is maxed out physically—his weight stayed precisely at 286—and extremely consistent. Last year's preview was more or less identical to this one, with an extended section about how Kemp struggled against doubles and did the control-and-shed thing for his positives:

When Kemp did a thing that got a plus it was almost invariably this:

DT #2 to bottom

Engage a single block, drive it back productively, someone else cleans up. That's a nice thing to be able to do but if it's your only tool you're going to be stuck with the kind of numbers you see above.

He's in the right gap; he's able to win one on one blocks against solid competition; he is not a nose tackle. Kemp could be the same guy but seem like a much better player if Michigan has a real nose. Kemp has no control over that. We do have an indication that they're going to try to move him a slot back outside:

Brown did say Carlo Kemp is moving back to 3-tech, which a) is a relief, and b) a rebuke of a presser around this far from kickoff last year when Brown said he put Kemp at nose and fwoosh [airplane takes off sign].

Even if that goes well Kemp is still going to be a plugger who stays in the single digits in UFR grading that's DL-friendly. When Brown talks about Kemp he says things like "[he's] given us solid play inside." No sound effects this time around. Kemp will still be outmatched by the Wisconsins and Ohio States of the world. He will continue to be a key piece of Michigan's pocket-constricting rush even if he's not personally creating pressures. He's also a program guy. Nua called him "the best leader we could ever have."

Kemp will be okay. Hopefully this year he won't have as much on his plate, because there will be other defensive tackles.

NOSE TACKLE: TAKE TWO

RATING: 2.

would be real nice if the talk was more accurate this time around [Patrick Barron]

There's been close to no clarity about who's going to start next to Kemp and what position that guy will be playing. Everyone wants the answer to be CHRIS HINTON, but the offseason talk has once again focused on DONOVAN JETER [recruiting profile].

You can be forgiven for taking that talk with a grain of salt after Jeter was last year's camp chatter MVP. To go from this…

Jeter was also the first name out of the mouths of both Don Brown ("Start with this Donovan Jeter. Think we got ourselves a real inside guy.") and Jim Harbaugh ("Donovan Jeter would be the first name that I would throw out there … Tremendous winter program and strength. He’s really figuring it out. Playing explosive.") when asked the usual open-ended questions about guys popping out. …

Jeter hype continued into the fall ("Consistently good, which has been really encouraging") from both coaches and insider types. Lorenz picked him out as a riser, as did one of our local insiders ("getting the praise he deserves for all the hard work he has put in").

…to zero tackles is rough. He missed the first two games with an injury, returning for Wisconsin:

Jeter, meanwhile?

I had nothing positive for him and several –2 events, many of them on the draws where he'd put himself to one side of the OL and then get moved out, contributing to the giant gaps in the middle. Late he got wiped by a double:

Meanwhile he did not pick up a plus. Getting your first extended playing time against Wisconsin is rough, of course. This was not an encouraging debut.

He did not get a defensive snap the next week against Iowa and was relegated to scattered snaps the rest of the year. Contrary to the talk, it seemed like Jeter went backwards. Last year's preview had a few clips for him, like this solo tackle against Penn State:

NT #95

There was also a double team split against Nebraska. That was moderately promising. There was nothing to be said about Jeter's 2019 other than better luck next year.

It's next year. They're still talking about Jeter breaking through. Don Brown ("playing better than I ever could have anticipated he could play", Shaun Nua ("the guy who’s got his mindset right") and Sam Webb have been talking him up. Sam's take also focuses on mindset, because Jeter was behind Jess Speight on some early depth charts and then put his head down to correct what was, in his eyes, an error:

He kept his head down, kept grinding, and has been one of the line’s most consistent producers since the pads were put on. I’m told no player in the front has improved more than Donovan Jeter.

Nua had some more details about the shift in Jeter's approach:

“Sometimes all of us, we tend to not understand how fragile and how very, very limited the opportunities are. He’s probably just sick and tired of not breaking through. … He’s finally realizing, ‘What the heck am I waiting for?’ There’s a lot of talks, we’ve had a lot of discussions about it and he’s finally seeing the light."

We'll see. You would be forgiven for being skeptical after how it worked out last year. One mitigating factor: Jeter was hurt significantly enough to miss the first two games and was reputed to be not quite right most of the year. One potential concern: he's a redshirt junior and he just shot up 28 pounds on the roster from 290 to 318. Rapid weight gain is natural early in your career; by year four you're hoping that guys level off as they near ideal weight.

Jeter is a major X factor for the season. He's a fourth-year player who was a hyped recruit and is getting the right kind of talk. He's also been bad so far. Anything from Bryan Mone to more of the same is possible.

BACKUPS

cumong five star [Bryan Fuller]

If you're skeptical of the Jeter hype, Michigan's best hope for a sea change on the interior is CHRIS HINTON [recruiting profile] blowing up. This is a possibility. He's a five star in year two. It happens. It could happen here.

I am agnostic about Hinton's freshman year. Our Freshman WRs Suck meme doesn't work for DTs because those DTs suck so much they barely play. It makes sense that he didn't see the field much.

Yeah, the DT situation was terrible. No, a freshman doesn't help. Many persons are mad that other folks got snaps. I can't agree with them because Hinton got crunched more often than not for much of the season. Here he takes a double and gets blown out against PSU:

DT #15 to bottom

Hutchinson rescues most of that and Michigan survives; Hinton ends up five yards downfield on his knees. That was typical for the first several games. This is not a problem. It just means that Hinton used to be in high school.

Hinton eventually started getting meaningful snaps he did well with. By MSU I asserted he was "making one short yarage play per game." The MSU event:

DT #15 firing MSU C back

He nearly shut down a Maryland fourth and one but he didn't get a second guy to help out:

DT #15 just below NT

Here he takes a chip from an ND OL and is able to fight through it to help tackle short of the sticks on second and one:

NT #15

You can see the promise. But these are occasional plays that get oversampled for these previews because I'm looking for the things that are interesting. Hinton surviving doesn't get clipped. He wasn't going to change Michigan's fortunes last year.

This year? Maybe. Brown's talked about him a bunch:

"[Hinton] is a tremendous young man. This guy, I used to joke with him last year, would you rather be a slug or a bullet? Obviously, we want him to be a bullet. He's improved his short area quickness his COD, change of direction, tremendously. He’s starting to see those benefits."

He got momentarily left out of a list-all-the-guys press conference quote and Brown was furious with himself:

Oh, and Christopher Hinton's playing great! That's the guy I got left out. Sometimes I hate doing this because you leave a guy out.

Other insider takes include "has shown marked improvement … is starting to live up to the recruiting rankings" and "very athletic … has good mass." Also this space maintains an eternal flame for players who are older than their dads:

 

This man cannot fail. He is one thousand years old.

Hinton has been proclaimed as one of the three guys who will rotate. Michigan will try to add numbers to that; as far as Hinton himself goes there are two routes. One: he is a rotation piece and it's fine and people are reasonably optimistic. Two: he pushes through one of the other two guys to be a clear starter and people are hyped. He did enough as a true freshman to indicate he's going to be a guy. Dude? Possible. Ask again later.

oh look it's another deep bench photo from the ND game weird [Patrick Barron]

The most experienced backup and probable last member of the two-deep is former walk-on JESS SPEIGHT, who was the offensive scout team player of the year in 2018. Michigan flipped him from offensive line the week before fall camp, and he ended up playing in seven games. He even started the bowl game. You know, against Alabama. This went about as well as you imagine.

Speight did look plausible against lesser competition. He had a fair bit of garbage time against Indiana, where he looked okay:

What's the deal with Jess Speight sticking ahead of guys like Hinton and Smith?

I don't think I'd say he's still ahead of Hinton, who's getting a smattering of real snaps. He was in the opener. Not now. Speight is apparently still in front of Smith and probably even Donovan Jeter, who got on the field after him in this game. Speight got a few snaps on the last drive I charted, getting a plus for holding up to a brief double and offering no gap:

DT #67 to bottom

Not bad. He hasn't jumped out as a potential Glasgow in the snaps I've watched. Even so it seems clear he'll be in the conversation for playing time next year.

A year on, he is still in the conversation. Speight is still drawing press conference talk and appears set to stick on the two-deep. In late September Brown named Jeter, Kemp, and Hinton as the top three guys with Speight explicitly fourth. Other press conference statements from both Brown, Nua and Harbaugh have been muddled, with everyone thrown in a big Bin O' Guys. Speight does continue to come up. Per Sam he was ahead of Jeter on some early depth charts and per Brown is "doing a really good job."

It's not completely crazy to believe Speight can improve a bunch and give Michigan a rotation option. He's got the requisite size and should improve rapidly since he just flipped sides of the ball. That maxes out as a guy who can eat some innings without getting smashed. On this team that's valuable.

this is 30 pounds ago [Bryan Fuller]

If the two deep ends up being shaky Michigan has a couple more shots. The most promising—at least for 2020—is German underpass enthusiast and moguls skier JULIUS WELSCHOF [recruiting profile]. Welschof was a shot in the dark a few recruiting classes ago. He played amateur ball in Germany that makes your average high school film look like a Patriots scrimmage, but a camp tour of the US brought in an array of D-1 offers. Michigan jumped in and grabbed a lottery ticket:

“He’s really raw but his upside is tremendous,” said one of the coaches at another program that had him in camp last summer. “This is a really good get for Michigan. He’s a beautiful kid. He’s going to be 6'6", 280 pounds before too long. His athleticism is really legit.”

That school had Welschof measured at 6'6" and 242 pounds, with a 4.87 40, a 10-foot broad jump and an impressive 4.38-second 20-yard shuttle.

A couple years later Welschof is 290 and getting talked up. You may find this to be the direst feelingsball, but I'm going to say it anyway. Don Brown keeps referring to Welschof in a certain fashion:

“If I had to pick one guy up front that I’m excited about it’s this Julius Welschof."

"This Julius Welschof." Makes him sound like a bear who wandered in and started lifting weights, which isn't too far from the truth. Per Brown Welschof is 290 and "runs exactly like he ran when he was 260":

"We’re seeing big things out of him. His ability to run, chase the football from the inside is kinda what we were hoping he would do a year ago, but sometimes it takes a little longer. … he’s playing at a high, high level.”

This didn't come out of nowhere. A year ago Steve Lorenz put him in that group of players to watch out for in 2020, and revisited that take to confirm he's still on track.

Welschof is probably still rawer than you'd like, even in year three; hopefully he's able to rotate in. Alternating good and bad plays would be a good sign for the future.

-50 but in a good way [Patrick Barron]

The other roll of the dice Michigan has is redshirt freshman MAZI SMITH [recruiting profile]. He is the second-most touted DT on the roster behind Hinton after finishing his high school career with a standout performance at his all-star game:

• "…one of the most physically imposing players in attendance. That has been most evident during several of his overpowering bull rushes."
• …had to be one of the stronger players in this game. He won numerous reps with straight power. You combine his power with pad level and that is a nightmare for the offensive lineman in front of him.

The sites bumped him up to just outside the top 100, and that seemed a little low. There were some concerns that Smith didn't bring it on every snap (Allen Trieu said he "kind of turns it off and on"), a criticism Smith acknowledged and seemed to set right by the time that all star game came around.

But sometimes those kinds of things linger, requiring a year or two of not climbing the depth chart before the switch is truly, permanently flipped on. Last year you could infer that Smith arrived with a lot of work to do. Shaun Nua last fall:

“Mazi has done a great job of reforming his body since he got here …he’s dropped some weight and he moves a lot better."

Then inference was no longer necessary, because people started talking about how enormous he was. Sam Webb talked with Smith's trainer back in Grand Rapids, who confirmed that Smith's conditioning was one of two main issues preventing him from seeing the field. (The other was the playbook, as is standard for freshmen.) That article asserts 334 at one point. Meanwhile Nua said he "came in at 350-plus"(!). The roster listed him at 305. Unless you're Mike Onwenu it is never good to be 50 pounds over your listed weight.

Now Smith is reportedly back down to around 300 and running 40s in under 5 seconds. Nua:

"he got with [performance dietician] Abigail [O'Connor] and now he’s a freakin’ shiny 305, 310 beast." That's step one.

That's step one.

Step two is to be a defensive tackle. This is difficult in the best of circumstances; these are not the best of circumstances. At the same time Nua was describing Smith's physical transformation he mentioned that Smith has "a little bit of ways to learn the game" and that "the mental part really separates who's ready and who's not." Smith evidently falls into the latter category. For now. He is "close to having that breakout experience."

Smith hasn't featured in much program talk but it hasn't been complete radio silence. Khaleke Hudson mentioned him as one of a few freshman who were impressing in bowl practices; Josh Ross touted him this fall. He's got some guys in his corner, probably because he creates takes like this from Jeter last year:

“Want to talk about a monster? First day, upper body, I’m one of the strongest benchers on the team and he’s making the weight I’m doing look light and I’m sitting there like Maybe I need to reevaluate myself. He’s coming in just moving weight and I’m sitting there like, ‘Man..’ He’s so far ahead of the curve he doesn’t know it yet, so every day I’m in his ear like ‘Yo, when you’re ready to dominate, you’ll dominate.’"

Once Smith can hurl cars across the field and move for more than a few snaps in a row he'll get there. That might be next year. Reasonable expectations for this year is that he has a 2019 Hinton season with a couple more defenestrations.

PHIL PAEA [recruiting profile] got bumped back to defense last year after Michigan tried him out on the OL. He spent the season on the deep, deep bench. It doesn't appear he got a snap per his MGoBlue profile. Since Michigan was throwing fullbacks and walk-on OL at the DT hole that bodes unwell. Brown did say Paea is "the guy that's made significant improvement," for a flicker of hope.

True freshman KRIS JENKINS [recruiting profile] is Michigan's only attempt at a DT in this class, and he spent much of his high school career listed at under 240 pounds. It's going to be a minute. Maybe less of one than expected since the most recent roster listed him at 265. It would still be foolhardy to expect he can contribute in year one. Both this site, which named him Sleeper of the Year, and Don Brown ("…going to be a really good player") are enthusiastic about his longer term prospects.