About Last Week

I’m back! Sorry, I had a thing last week. But enough about me. How are you? Hope your week went really well, and that your Halloween preparations are coming along nicely.

Look, keep your chin up. You almost had him that time.

The Road Ahead

Michigan State (7-0, 4-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at Indiana, 20-15; Bye

Recap: If you were watching this game for entertainment, man, you are bad at TV-watching. The teams combined for 563 yards of offense, with neither team reaching 4 yards per play. Peyton Thorne’s 4.8 yards per attempt with 1 TD and 2 INTs only looked good because they were standing next to Jack Tuttle’s 3.6 YPA/0 TD/2 INT afternoon. Hell, the best QBR on the day – by 69 points ⁠⁠— belonged to Tyler Hunt, who was 1/1 with a 15 yards completion to… Payton Thorne

On the ground, a great hubbub was made this week of the suggestion that much of Kenneth Walker’s statistical hay was made against teams ranked in the bottom half in yards per carry allowed, and that while he is obviously a supremely talented and effective back, there is a question of whether such production can be sustained when his final five games are all among teams ranked in the top half in the country. This space draws no conclusions on this matter, but Walker finished with 84 yards on 23 carries.

Surrendering 15 points in a full conference game sounds pretty good. But then you consider Indiana’s prior (and subsequent) exploits in conference play:

• Against Iowa, Penn State, and Ohio State combined: 13 points
• Against Michigan State: 15

Michigan State also continued their streak of facing so, so many offensive plays; Indiana ran 88 plays, bumping MSU’s season average number of plays faced to 83.4/game, highest in the nation by 3.7 plays.

This team is as frightening as: When you want to step quietly out of the bar to have a nice private alley fight with your brother, but someone yells “FIGHT” and now the entire bar is coming outside to watch. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: Use your imagination.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan State is an offensive Jekyll and Hyde team. Through four conference games, they have put together four halves of dynamic offensive football and four halves of concentrated Big Ten sludgefart in its natural juices. For the Northwestern game, the first half against Rutgers, and the first half against Nebraska, they have come up with explosive play after explosive play, and generally looked like one of the best offensive teams in the Big Ten. On the other hand…

• Nebraska (2nd half): 5 drives, 0 points, 0 first downs.
• Rutgers (2nd half): One 94-yard individual effort, and outside of that, 28 plays over 6 drives totaling 88 yards and 3 points.
• Indiana (entire game): 13 drives, 13 offensive points, 14 first downs gained, 3.9 yards per play, and their sole touchdown drive coming after a turnover at the IU 39.

When they play Michigan: Noon. Which is good. Because… reasons.

Next game: vs. Michigan, noon, FOX (MSU +4.5)

[AFTER THE JUMP: we discuss… that.]

Indiana (2-5, 0-4 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Michigan State, 20-15; Lost to Ohio State, 54-7

Recap: I get that they’re dealing with second, third, and fourth string quarterbacks here, but this is just miserable. They’re putting up 3.6 yards per play in conference play, which is the worst in-conference mark of any major conference team. They’re scoring 7 points per conference game, ahead of only Vanderbilt among major conference teams. They are one of only two major conference teams (along with Boston College) without a single play from scrimmage of 40+ yards in conference play.

I don’t know what Nick Sheridan is doing, but I know it isn’t working.

This team is as frightening as: Indiana is no longer #CHAOSTEAM. Indiana is now “Jeff Goldblum explains Chaos Theory in Jurassic Park” Team. Like, we see what you’re going for here, but… why? We didn’t pay $8 to watch this crap. I was promised an implausible plot involving lots of running and screaming. We want entertainment, not this pointless drivel. Dinosaurs or GTFO. Fear Level = 4

Fewer “non-linear dynamics nag Dr. Malcolm” screeds and more “Sexy Loungin’ Ian” vibes, please

Michigan should worry about: It will be five weeks since Michael Penix’s original shoulder injury. It was his throwing shoulder, but minor AC joint separations can heal (or heal enough to play football) in a few weeks, which makes it possible that Michigan won’t be facing a random Indiana student called in from the stands at quarterback.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: That would require Indiana’s luck to change, which, buddy I’m not putting any money on that prospect this year.

When they play Michigan: Michigan hasn’t had a chance at a revenge game against Indiana since Die Hard was in theaters. Michigan won that game 31-6, if you’re curious.

Next game: @ Maryland, noon (IU +2.5)

Penn State (5-2, 2-2 B1G)

Last week: Bye; Lost to Illinois, 20-18 (9OT)

Recap: Six-year-olds love to ask questions. Lots of questions. Oh my god so many questions. And one of my son’s favorite categories of question when he was six was Hypothetical Animal Matchups. What would happen if a gorilla fought a leopard. How many hyenas would it take to kill a rhino. Could the Hulk beat a family of T-Rexes.

One time he asked me, “what would happen if a lion fought a great white shark?” And I replied, “well… they wouldn’t.” But, as six-year-old boys do not like it when you challenge the premise of questions, he persisted. “But what would happen?”

Now we know.

It was a stalemate, but not like two equally matched animals battling with horns locked or claws out, game for a fight but unable to gain an advantage. No, this game was like two creatures staring at each other from a few yards apart, each waiting for the other to do something, anything, to break things open, but unsure how in the hell they were supposed to do anything themselves. Like two Mortal Kombat characters when your friend pulls the plugs on both remotes. Just standing there, bobbing and dancing, while the two human players frantically try to find the ends of their cord to plug them back in.

There was plenty to take away from a football standpoint. Sean Clifford, two weeks removed from getting knocked out of the Iowa game, played but was clearly not healthy. Without Clifford as a run threat, Penn State managed only 2.1 yards per carry (Illinois surrendered 391 yards at 6.4 per pop last week against Wisconsin). Penn State’s 227 offensive yards were the fewest allowed by Illinois since Nathan Scheelhaase was a sophomore. The Penn State run defense without PJ Mustipher gave up 357 yards on 67 carries to a team that absolutely could not throw the ball; Illinois had 7 net passing yards on 22 dropbacks.

But ultimately the individual football parts don’t matter. The majority of the game was like the setup portion of a joke whose entire schtick is “this joke has a long setup.” It was Norm MacDonald telling the Moth Joke. And it took total dedication to the bit to pull off. If one of the teams scored in the first shootout possession and game ended at 18-16 in 3OT, or if the teams had managed to throw a couple of extra touchdowns in there somewhere and the score had ended 30-28 in 9 OT, it would have been another stupid Big Ten game to be forgotten on the pile of other stupid Big Ten games. Instead, because of the commitment of these two teams, this has become the Ur-Stupid Big Ten Game. And I, for one, am proud of them.

This team is as frightening as: Being James Franklin and being told “we’re going to build the entire plane out of super-high-leverage end-of-game situations.” Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: Despite playing Ohio State this week, James Franklin’s mind is already on the Michigan game. And the Illinois game again.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: 20-18 (9OT).

When they play Michigan: We hear the words “game manager” a lot these days. But I feel like a game manager can manage to score, say, 21 points if given 60 minutes of regulation, 2 overtime possessions at the 25+, and 7 attempts from 9 feet from the goal line worth 2 points each. Probably.

Next game: @ Ohio State, 7:30 p.m., ABC (PSU +18.5)

Maryland (4-3, 1-3 B1G)

Last week: Bye; Lost at Minnesota, 34-16

Recap: Yeah, I think we can officially call this one. As with most years, when Green Day awoke, Maryland went to sleep.

After back-to-back games surrendering 282 passing yards to Iowa ⁠— TO IOWA ⁠— and 432 passing yards to Ohio State, it was Maryland’s rush defense’s turn to get pulverized. Leaning on three running backs who weren’t on the two-deep when the season started, the Gophers rushed for 326 yards at 5.8 per carry. Of the 55 times Minnesota ran the ball, Maryland managed one TFL, and held them to 0 or 1 yards an additional 3 times. That’s 51 of 55 carries than went for at least 2 yards. Minnesota was forced into a 2nd and 10-or-longer twice all game. Twice!

Offensively, Maryland is fine, but not playing anywhere near well enough to make up for the defense. With Dontay Demus and Jeshaun Jones out for the year, Rakim Jarrett is wearing defensive backs like an infinity scarf, and everyone else is dropping the football at every opportunity; the Terps dropped another 6 passes on Saturday.

This team is as frightening as:

The West African Mud Turtle would rather not talk about it, thanks. Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: “They still have talent,” he shouted upward as he fell deeper and deeper towards the event horizon.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Maryland is surrendering 42 points per play in conference play despite playing Iowa and Illinois for half of their conference schedule thus far.

When they play Michigan: Michigan gets November Maryland. And without spoiling anything, November Maryland is… well, it’s not great.

Next game: vs. Indiana, noon (Maryland -2.5)

Ohio State (6-1, 4-0 B1G)

Last week: Bye; Won at Indiana, 54-7

Their football team may be an unholy wrecking ball, but never forget that they tried to trademark the word “The”

Recap: Sorry, we’re running long.

This team is as frightening as: Many. Fear Level = 10

Michigan should worry about: The offense, mostly, but also the defense.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Maybe CJ Stroud will be abducted by aliens.

When they play Michigan: Not yet.

Next game: vs. Penn State, 7:30 p.m., ABC (OSU -18.5)

 

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

 

Western Michigan (5-3, 2-2 MAC)

Last week: Beat Kent State, 64-31; Lost at Toledo, 34-15

Recap: First they were like

Then they were like

Next game: Bye

Washington (2-4, 1-2 Pac-12)

Last week: Lost to UCLA, 24-17; Won at Arizona, 21-16

Recap: I felt bad about missing last week’s Opponent Watch, so I said to myself, “Self, you owe the people a full effort this week. So you’re going to stay up late on Friday night and watch Washington and Arizona, and you’re going to have something SUBSTANTIVE to talk about.” The game kicked at 10:30 Eastern (9:30 my time), and I made as long as I could. And this is what I can report:

This is John Donovan.

John Donovan is the Offensive Coordinator for the University of Washington. He was hired by a real person ⁠— a person who knows and watches football, no less ⁠— to perform that job and all of the duties it entails. And he is paid American dollarbucks on a regular basis to continue to do that job. Those payments total $875,000 per year.

As someone with a loose understanding of both football and moneys, this did not make sense to me. So I tried to figure out why this was happening. I fell down a Google rabbit hole looking through the archives to figure out how/when/why people decided he was good at the thing for which he is paid this money, and I came up empty. The best I found were, “well, this isn’t ENTIRELY Donovan’s fault” pieces. I then went in search of other plausible explanations. My Google searches included the following:

• John Donovan super nice guy
• John Donovan embarrassing photos university president
• John Donovan knows location buried treasure
• John Donovan amazing guacamole he brings to practice
• John Donovan can’t be fired unless you answer his three riddles
• John Donovan caring and attentive lover
• John Donovan only guy who knows locker room alarm code
• John Donovan glitch in payroll department

I regret to inform you that, despite all of this, I still got nothin’.

Excluding the Arkansas State game (which is fair to exclude because Arkansas State is surrendering 8.3 yards per play, the worst in the country ***by nearly a full yard per play***), Washington is averaging 308 yards and 18.3 points per game. They trailed Arizona ⁠— winless, moribund, possibly-the-worst-Power-5-team Arizona ⁠— 13-0 at halftime.

So I went to bed.

Sorry.

Next game: @ Stanford, 10:30 p.m., FS1 (UW +2)

Northern Illinois (6-2, 4-0 MAC)

Last week: Beat Bowling Green, 34-26; Won at Central Michigan, 39-38

Recap: Raise your hand if you had NIU as the first bowl eligible team among Michigan’s first seven opponents.

NIU’s offense continues to surprise. The Huskies carved up Bowling Green on the ground (319 yards at 5.4 YPC) and CMU through the air (351 yards ad 3 TDs at 12.5 YPA). The Huskies are scoring 29.8 points per game, and they lead the MAC in rushing at 233 yards per game. 

One other fun fact: despite being 6-2, because of their five one-score wins and their one MASSIVE loss to Michigan, NIU has been outscored on the season thus far, 252-238. Their scoring margins in FBS games are +1, –7, +7, +2, +8, +1, and… –53.

Next game: Bye

Rutgers (3-4, 0-4 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Northwestern, 21-7; Bye

Recap: Rutgers was clinging desperately to a last vestiges of “maybe they’re decent” status.  They had a 61-14 win over Temple, a wonky but extant win over Syracuse, and a moral victory over Michigan. And getting blasted by Ohio State happens to lots of teams. And sure, losing to Michigan State isn’t great, but they’re a Top 10 team. But losing to Northwestern --- and putting up 222 yards in the process at less than 3.4 yards per play --- will lay bare the charade.

It’s just a little Rutgery. It’s still good. It’s still good.

It’s gone.

Anyway, after scoring 61 points in their opener, they’ve scored 63 points in their five FBS games since then. It took a little while, but Rutgers has regained their rightful place at the bottom of the Big Ten East. Fortunately for Rutgers, they still have Illinois, Indiana, and Maryland on the agenda, so a bowl game isn’t totally out of the question. Bill Connelly has them at 22% to reach 6 wins.

Next game: @ Illinois, noon (Rutgers -1)

Wisconsin (4-3, 2-2 B1G)

Last week: Beat Army, 20-14; Won at Purdue 30-13.

Recap: We’ve reached the point in the coming-of-age movie where the wise old snowmobiler at the end of the bar imparts the wisdom on our young protagonist that he should be true to himself. “Stop trying to be like everyone else,” he says, “and follow the ways that were laid out by your ancestors.” Our protagonist looks skyward, as if to ask his cheesy forefathers what to do. But when he looks back, the wise old snowmobiler had vanished.*

*NOTE: The wise old snowmobiler had simply stepped outside to pee in a snowbank. But the point stands.

Wisconsin has given up on throwing the ball for the last few weeks, running the ball on 76%, 74%, and 86% of their offensive plays against Illinois, Army, and Purdue respectively. Graham Mertz threw 8 passes on Saturday against Purdue. And the results are a REMARKABLE level of moderate success. Check out their play selection since their bye in week 3:

There is even some upside here. Based on the infallible science of looking at lines, if Wisconsin were to run the ball 100% of the time, they would be averaging about 35 points per game, which combined with their defense would be enough to win them the Big Ten West with room to spare.

Vegas, however, has not caught on to Wisconsin’s newfound analytical edge, and has set the over/under for their game against Iowa at 37 points.

Next game: vs. Iowa, noon, ESPN (UW -3)

Nebraska (3-5, 1-4 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Minnesota, 30-23; Bye

Recap: There’s not a lot to say at this point.

Okay, that’s not actually true. There’s a lot to say. There’s just nothing new to say. Because Nebraska refuses to be different in any way than they were the last time we pointed and laughed.

I’ve been following the Detroit Lions for more than three decades, and while they have been terrible for almost that entire time, they have been DIFFERENTLY terrible. Every loss is new and fresh and unique. Maybe they’ll take a lead with under a minute left and lose on an NFL-record field goal. Maybe they’ll get smoked by a terrible team. Maybe they’ll play shockingly well but get completely hosed by the refs, usually on some obscure rule like Illegal Left Turn or Legal Forward Pass That Nevertheless Isn’t In Keeping With The Spirit Of The Game.

Nebraska is the same movie every week. It’s just a question of how they will find themselves blowing a reasonable chance at a win to lose by a single score. It’s the M. Night Shyamalan of football game suspense. Even if you don’t see the precise twist coming, when you see it, your reaction is, “yeah, I probably should have saved the time and money.”

Nebraska is 5-17 under Scott Frost in one-score games. That’s incomprehensible. If you assume one-score games are coin flips, the odds of winning 5 or fewer games out of 22 is less than 1%.

Next game: vs. Purdue, 3:30 p.m., ESPN2 (NU -7)