When Michigan lost in the Frozen Four each of the last two years I wrote a game column style piece about the loss in the aftermath. This year, after Michigan's 4-0 defeat to Boston College in St. Paul last Thursday, I didn't quite feel the same way. There wasn't much of a game column to write because there wasn't much of a game that happened. Michigan trailed less than two minutes into the contest and never scored. They were competitive for awhile but before the 2nd period was up the game was over. The third period was simply obligatory. The Wolverines were dispatched by a far superior side. 

I have no narrative to speak of but certainly have some thoughts on the games and the season as a whole. So, today we'll go through it all, Hockey Weekly style: 

HockeyBullets About BC 

Overall... okay? I wasn't particularly despondent about the way Michigan played against Boston College. They went up against a team that was definitely better, Michigan played maybe a B-level game and BC played an A-level game. Michigan also got pretty unfavorable puck luck (the double deflection goal stands out) and that combination makes the score 4-0. Perhaps you do that game over again and Michigan loses 3-1 instead. They didn't choke, they just ran into their reasonable finish, having gotten as much out of this roster in the postseason as one could've expected. 

Pulling back the curtain on the underlying numbers. We talked about Boston College's possession numbers in the preview and this game was a pretty clear example of what those possession metrics look like. BC doesn't play with the puck as much as some elite teams and do let opponents shoot a decent amount, but they are a strong defensive team that limits how much the opponent gets near the net. They're well structured in their own zone and kept Michigan to the outside. The Wolverines held the zone, took shots, but with a good goalie in net and a roster of players who use their sticks and block shots well, it makes it difficult to score on even if you have the puck a lot. 

And then of course BC gets the opportunity to attack you in transition the other way. Michigan held the zone in the opening minute, got a look or two, and suddenly Seamus Casey is trapped in the OZ, the puck's turned over, and it's a 2v1. BC finishes it off and Michigan is trailing just like that. The Eagles didn't get a tremendous amount of rush chances, but they got some dangerous ones, also getting a breakaway that Cutter Gauthier scored on and a mini-break for Ryan Leonard that Jake Barczewski made a great save on. 4v4 play was an issue for Michigan, which was going to be a worry against a team as skilled as Boston College and allowed them to score off the rush even more. Michigan was spared by less PK time against this lethal PP, but the flip side was the 4v4 time, which proved just as deadly. You pick your poison against this team, Michigan was maybe moderately unlucky in their goal prevention, but at the end of the day they didn't score and that's a testament to BC's underrated defense and goaltending. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: takes, grades, 2024-25]

[David Wilcomes]

Speaking of BC's defense. It's really good and was my biggest thought in this game, that it is indeed possible to marry a young, skilled, offensive team that has NHL playmakers with good defense. We always hear about how young Michigan is perennially as an excuse for defensive problems and while it is certainly true that younger/less experienced players are more prone to mistakes and have lapses defensively (true at any level of hockey), it doesn't totally explain Michigan's defensive warts over the years. This Boston College team had the youngest average age in college hockey and their defensive corps was two freshmen, a sophomore, a junior, and two seniors. It is not a bunch of super seniors who are 24 and are experts of college hockey, but they were still able to put together a defense that was very good, elite on the penalty kill especially. That's coaching... and also talent evaluation. 

Michigan being a team that goes through ups and downs defensively every year is a mix of different factors. One factor is youth, sure, but that's not the whole story. Some of it is coaching. I never really felt Mel Pearson was a tremendous defensive coach and we'd expect Brandon Naurato to be a work in progress in that area, since he hadn't been behind the bench much in the NCAA and had largely worked on skill development before that. But I also think recruiting and talent evaluation is a story. Michigan has gotten 1st round pick defensemen, but those tend to be hyper talented offensive defensemen who are a work in progress defensively, the progeny of Jim and Ellen Hughes but also Owen Power, now Seamus Casey, and all the way back to Zach Werenski. I've got no problem with an exceptional skilled and talented puck-moving defenseman on the roster. You need those guys to be great offensive teams. 

But beyond those players, Michigan's last few teams have been lacking in other defensemen who are quality, with NHL interest (even if they're not destined NHL players). The closest they've gotten to it is the 2021-22 team with Blankenburg, who was a legitimate college UDFA, plus Power, Luke Hughes, Jacob Truscott (5th rounder), and Ethan Edwards (late 4th rounder) all in the lineup. That was good, but the bottom of the lineup could've been even better. BC's group didn't have any 1st rounders, but 5/7 D were drafted in the 3rd or 4th round, which is a pretty good model for Michigan. Another model would be Minnesota's team last season, with *four* late 1st or 2nd rounders. 

That sort of mix, a defense that has a decently balanced composition of freshmen through seniors, with one blue chip offensive D + three or four guys picked in the 2nd to 4th rounds, and maybe one or two grizzled veterans who weren't drafted but have developed is the ideal D group for Michigan. How Naurato chooses to build his defenses in the long run is the biggest question for his tenure, but we have seen multiple teams the last two seasons between Minnesota 2023 and BC that you can build a young and skilled, scoring team that also defends very well if you get the right defenders and coach them up well. 

[David Wilcomes]

Farewell Jacob Barczewski. I thought Barczewski was fine in his final game at Michigan. Wasn't his best game, wasn't his worst game. Didn't go God Mode like Michigan was going to need to win this game, though again, they didn't score so it wouldn't have mattered. Barczewski also wasn't the reason they lost and he did make a highlight reel save or two which is always nice. As his career (well, one season) in the Maize & Blue comes to a close, I am thankful for Barczewski's service to the program. Barzo was never going to be remembered like Marty Turco or Shawn Hunwick, but he was a solid, serviceable netminder who was good enough to get Michigan to the Frozen Four. That's all I asked for. When Michigan went in the portal for a goalie last spring, they just needed to find one who would be good enough to not waste all the scoring talent on the roster and in Barczewski, Michigan found that. I'll fondly remember his two great games when the season was on the line in Maryland Heights, 120 tremendous minutes in a huge moment. For just one season, it's not a bad legacy to leave behind. 

Season Wrap Up & Grading Brandon Naurato through two years 

We have now concluded two seasons of Brandon Naurato's tenure and Michigan is 49-27-6 over that time. Michigan won the B1G Tournament in his first season, making the championship game this year before [REDACTED]. He has made the Frozen Four both seasons, which certainly isn't nothing, though Michigan was unable to win a game either time. On the other hand, that's something like a program tradition at this point so maybe not the biggest deal. 

Overall, I feel pretty solid about how Naurato has performed through two seasons. He is a first time head coach at any level of hockey, high school, college, or professional. You expect there to be growing pains and to his credit, those have been pretty minimal. Rather, this team has been largely a continuation of the on-ice performance established in the last two Mel Pearson seasons. That's a good sign, because there have been roadblocks thrown in Naurato's face. I wrote in my last column that 2022-23 was coaching on "easy mode", but people did point out in the comments (correctly) that the nature of the transition was a challenge in and of itself. Naurato took over in August, which is a bizarre time to begin coaching and had to hit the ground running quickly. The bungled transition was something that Naurato had to overcome last year and the loss of a prized goalie commit as part of it was something he had to deal with in multiple ways this season. 

[David Wilcomes]

He has benefitted in getting to coach Mel's recruits, who are extremely talented (especially at forward), but Naurato's recruiting going forward shows no real departure in that regard. The incoming freshman class is rife with good forwards and they've been very close to reeling in even more great players (Michigan was the reported runner up for both Artyom Levshunov and James Hagens). Michigan will probably never have four of the top five picks in the NHL Draft again but that was a once in a million statistical oddity that took multiple factors to create. Naurato's recruiting is continuing the standard that each class should expect to have a couple first rounders, in addition to several mid-round players to keep the cupboard well stocked. That's all good. 

I was impressed this season by Naurato's ability to improve the team in-season and make adjustments to areas that were weaknesses. Their ability to improve the neutral zone structure to cut down on rush chances against and their fixes on the penalty kill, putting more pressure on the perimeter, were crucial to boosting this Michigan team into an outfit that could make the Frozen Four by knocking off two top 5 teams who boasted strong offenses. Identifying problems, diagnosing them, and coming up with solutions (as best as possible given the roster) is Example A of good coaching. Naurato's abilities with the power play are apparent as well and so long as he is the coach, I have few questions about the ability of Michigan to put together very good offensive teams, from both a talent and systems standpoint. 

Of course, I'd like to be able to have a Michigan team that doesn't start from scratch every season defensively and that will determine Naurato's tenure long term. How he chooses to assemble his defenses and how he chooses to solve the goaltending question over the next few seasons via recruiting or the portal will be what I watch the most. Overall, though, the baseline established is very good and I don't think in either season they left tons of meat on the bones. Both of these teams ended up where I expected them to and for a young coach still figuring out the head coaching job that's okay with me. There are a lot worse places to be than a head coach in his 30s that has already made two Frozen Fours and is recruiting at a high level. The improvements I want to see defensively have more to do with how Michigan can finally win a regular season crown and finish it off in the Frozen Four. 

[David Wilcomes]

Some quick thoughts about next season

Like last year, I'll probably do a Let's Start Again - Hockey piece in a month or two once we have a better sense of the roster, but I do want to leave readers with a bit of a sense of what next year's hockey team may look like. So far we know that Dylan Duke has signed with the Tampa Bay Lightning (yesterday), Gavin Brindley has signed with the Columbus Blue Jackets (yesterda), and Frank Nazar III has signed with the Chicago Blackhawks (Saturday). We also know that Rutger McGroarty is coming back, as announced yesterday.  

Beyond that group of players, Michigan has a couple other players to watch. Seamus Casey was drafted in the 2nd round by the New Jersey Devils but I haven't heard much indication about him yet. There's also TJ Hughes and Josh Eernisse, undrafted players who have showed up on UDFA lists from various scouts. I assume those two will come back for at least another year but I do know of at least one NHL team that expressed interest in signing Hughes. We shall see. 

Getting McGroarty back is huge but I also don't necessarily think that if they had lost him it would've been the death knell for this team being good next year, because the incoming recruiting class is strong at forward. Michael Hage and Matvei Gridin are two of the top scorers in the USHL, likely to go somewhere in the first or second round of the draft, and Christian Humpreys could come in as well as a 2nd/3rd rounder from the USNTDP. If we assume that Eernisse/Hughes are coming back for another ride, then you have Schifsky, Moldenhauer, Eernisse, TJ Hughes, Estapa, Draper, Rowe, and Hallum returning, plus a possible COVID-shirt for Philippe Lapointe before you get into the big guns with obvious pro aspirations. Add in Gridin, Humphreys, and Hage to that and it's eleven names + PLP. Now that Rutger's back we're up to 13. Start digging into the portal (Michigan was connected to Wisconsin F William Whitelaw) and you'd have a strong and deep foward group even with losing Duke, Brindley, and Nazar. 

[David Wilcomes]

On defense there are also decisions for guys like Seamus Casey, Jacob Truscott, and Ethan Edwards, two of whom have pro options but haven't played four years and Truscott has his COVID year available. Again I don't have any real intel on what way anyone is leaning. Tyler Duke and Luca Fantilli I would expect to be on next year's team and Michigan has four freshmen defensemen in the class, Dakoda Rheaume-Mullen, Jack Willson, Hunter Hady, and Gennadi Chaly. There's also Josh Orrico and Brendan Miles on the team as perennial scratches, so there are a lot of bodies here to sort through. Whether some get deferred or some transfer probably hinges on which of the bigger name D exit (if any). As I mentioned previously in this piece, I would like to see Michigan's D group get improved over time and bringing in undrafted freshmen is not necessarily the logical fix in my mind and I would thus prefer to see Michigan look around the portal too. 

Finally there's the situation in net, with Jacob Barczewski exiting and Noah West transferring out. We received some clarity yesterday, as Michigan appears to have landed Logan Stein from Ferris State, who was not particularly good in his first three seasons but then posted an impressive .910 SV% on one of the very worst teams in college hockey. Beyond Stein, Michigan has commitments from two goalies, Cameron Kopri in the USHL and Stephen Peck in the NAHL. I would assume that Korpi is coming in this season since he's in the superior league, while maybe Peck tries to play next season in the USHL. A Korpi/Stein tandem definitely has some questions associated but both guys are decent enough to provide a legitimate reason why you'd think they may succeed. And you get two darts at the dartboard, so even if one guy struggles next year, you have the other. 

There is quite a bit of uncertainty with the 2024-25 roster right now as the offseason begins, but we'll gain considerable clarity soon. I expect next year's team to be good and certainly one that shouldn't struggle to score. The defense and goaltending side needs to be sorted out and the extent to which this team is loaded at forward will depend a lot on the personnel changes of the offseason. But I see no obvious reason to think next year will be a departure from the re-established program expectation of making the NCAA Tournament and competing for Frozen Four appearances.