It's been close to a month since our last Hockey Weekly, and Michigan Hockey is fully back in the swing of things. Since we were away, the hockey team caused a college hockey-wide controversy over canceling a game against Western Michigan, the World Juniors crumbled before our eyes, the NHL pulled out of the Olympics, meaning that Michigan players could be headed to Beijing in a few weeks, and the team swept UMass at home this weekend. It's been busy, despite only three games being played, and so we've got plenty to talk about. 

The beginning of the annual Mel Pearson Second Half Improvement?

Last Hockey Weekly we talked about how Michigan consistently improves under Mel in the second half of the season. We saw some early signs of that this weekend as Michigan bulldozed a good UMass team on consecutive nights, winning 3-1 and then 4-2. Those scores are comfortable, yet possession was more lopsided, with the Wolverines posting 60%+ Corsi at even strength both games, and it was the stellar play of Minutemen goalie Matt Murray (not that one) who kept this from being the kind of beatdown that UMass' football team suffers each Saturday in the fall.

Michigan skated circles around a decently talented UMass team, dominating possession, suppressing chances against and generating chances for in gobs, suffocating the Minutemen on the forecheck. The Maize & Blue men on ice haven't looked this sharp since October in Duluth. The version of the Michigan Hockey team we saw this weekend is the favorite for the national title... we just haven't seen it enough.

The biggest revelation from this weekend was the emergence of the Kent Johnson-Matty Beniers-Brendan Brisson line. I've been decently critical of how Pearson has routinely fired up the line blender week after week, but this seems like one line that cannot be broken up. They tilted the ice in their favor every time they were out there and generated five of Michigan's six non-empty netter goals on the weekend. Yes, they benefited from UMass' sloppy zone exits, but they were also the group turning them into goals: 

Matty Beniers fires in a sweet pass from Brendan Brisson. Great chase and take away by Kent Johnson. pic.twitter.com/yd6rtAw7IA

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) January 9, 2022

Is Brisson using this series as his Olympic try-out?! His third goal and fourth point of the weekend#GoBlue pic.twitter.com/Pszczup4jg

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) January 9, 2022

Johnson's passing, Beniers' puck retrieval (and shooting), and Brisson's finishing ability is a combo made in heaven. If they could do that against a team as good as UMass, it's worth pondering what they can do against the mid-tier B1G teams. There will be bumps in the road against a more physical team like OSU (UMass plays the kind of game Michigan wants to play), but this line needs to be cohesive. 

David remarked to me that Michigan needed more offense this weekend from forwards not on that line. That's probably true, but being without Thomas Bordeleau for ~undisclosed~ reasons is a big deal because he's your #2 engine. Leave the KJ-Beniers-Brisson line together, then build a second line of Samoskevich-Bordeleau-Pastujov and I think you'd have legit scoring depth. Then some combination of Morgan-Beecher-Duke and Moyle-GVW-Estapa or something in the bottom six. That's how I'd build it at least. But keep the big boys together. 

Erik Portillo also deserves a shoutout since we last did this column for allowing just three goals in 185 minutes of hockey, two of which coming after Michigan had a win locked up on Sunday. With a massively shorthanded roster facing Michigan Tech on Dec. 29, Portillo had a marvelous game to keep it scoreless, including stopping a penalty shot in OT to force a tie. Michigan's team defense has been improved the last three games, but Portillo continues to do his part on Grade-A chances against. You need that to win in the postseason, and you'll probably need it to win the conference regular season crown given the pieces you're gonna lose to the Olympics, but more on that in a second. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Olympics and Cancelation Controversy]

We did not get to see this again [JD Scott]

Let's talk about that WMU cancelation 

Since this was the biggest story in the NCAA Hockey universe while we were away, and it directly involves Michigan, we have to talk about it. For those unfamiliar, back on December 27, Michigan Hockey tweeted out the following post: 

Michigan's GLI Contest vs. Western Michigan on Dec. 30 Canceled

Details: https://t.co/mbXje1fv65#GoBlue pic.twitter.com/JdGnaV1Pyg

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) December 27, 2021

To those who saw that headline, it would seem apparent that the problem was in the Western Michigan program if only that game was being canceled (since Michigan was slated to also play Michigan Tech on Dec. 29). But when you clicked on the press release, it stated that Michigan was the source of the cancelation, yet the game against Tech was continuing as planned. All of which seemed to suggest that Michigan had enough players to play hockey on those two days, but only felt like playing one of the two days. And the game being canceled was the one against the better team of the two, one who beat Michigan at Yost in October. Your author had complained about playing these phony "GLI" games the last time I published this column, given that Michigan would be playing short a number of players due to the WJC, and so within that context, it all just screamed "Michigan is scared of likely losing to WMU with a limited roster, and is using COVID as a cover to duck the Broncos". 

The whole college hockey world interpreted it this way, and a firestorm ensued, with many claiming that Michigan was abusing the lenient rules surrounding cancelations in the time of COVID to get off the hook from playing games they don't want to play. The entire WMU program began accusing Michigan of cowardice on social media, and the PR response from Michigan was going very south by the time Mel Pearson finally spoke to the media on Dec. 30. Pearson maintains that it was out of his control and had nothing to do with being scared to lose to Western: 

Pearson did not have a role in the decision, rather the game was cancelled by a Michigan medical staff conference call because of the Wolverines' limited roster over the midseason break. 5 players were at WJC, some were in COVID protocols, and others were injured.

— Connor Earegood (@ConnorEaregood) December 31, 2021

“It’s frustrating,” Michigan coach Mel Pearson said. “I feel for the players. They want to play. We're coaches, we want to coach.”

— Connor Earegood (@ConnorEaregood) December 31, 2021

There are a few factors here. It is true that Michigan had a messy roster situation, not just because of the WJC. Steve Holtz was down with an injury sustained against Ohio State, Thomas Bordeleau was in COVID protocol (which caused him to miss the WJC), Erik Portillo and Jacob Truscott were not practicing, Johnny Beecher is still not 100% from a thumb injury sustained earlier this year, and oh yeah, the team had lost five guys to the WJC. They were maybe going to have enough guys to field a full lineup (they did end up having enough), but that might've been uncertain when the decision was made.

Still, it doesn't quite make it clear why you'd only play one game and not just cancel both. The argument seems to be that they didn't want to force a lineup down a few players to have to play back-to-back nights, but again, that's not really COVID-related and canceling preemptively is using loopholes that didn't exist previously to wiggle out of a sticky situation. 

The absence of both players in this photo was a major contributing factor [JD Scott]

I do generally believe Pearson when he says he had nothing to do with it though. After my initial skepticism, I came to the conclusion that it makes much more logical sense that a coach is not going to send the message to his players that he doesn't want to compete. It's just something that doesn't really happen in sports. Players and coaches at this high of a level don't have that sort of mindset and communicating with people who know Mel and the program, they believe firmly that Mel had nothing to do with it and would never consider dodging games. 

I think overall, this whole kerfuffle has two implications, one for Michigan and one for the NCAA. For Michigan, it's simply what I said in December: stop paying tribute to the carcass of the GLI. The way to prevent having a situation like this arise again is to not schedule games when you know you're going to be down 5-8 guys. Playing during the WJC ensures that Michigan is going to have a roster without much margin for error should a flood of injuries happen and the concept of playing when your best players are off wearing a different uniform has not made any sense for years. Just! Don't! Do! It! 

For the NCAA, they need to make the process more transparent surrounding COVID cancelations so long as this pandemic is continuing. We know that being a journalist and trying to get clear injury reports from a college sports team is about as difficult as being an FBI agent and trying to figure out the finances of the Mafia. It's all opaque, and the people with the knowledge don't want you to have it. But that culture of secrecy is what allows teams to have a lot of leeway about cancelations in the era of COVID. The NCAA ought to make teams report which players are in protocol, which players are injured, and make a clear statement why they can't play a particular game if it's going to be canceled. The fans who bought tickets to see it at the very least are owed that sort of answer. 

Olympics??? [SBNation.com]

The WJC goes down in flames, but here come the Olympics  

Michigan sent a batch of guys to Alberta for the World Juniors and it fell apart in just a few short days. The reason, we learned, was the incompetence of the IIHF. Despite operating with rules drawn up for a Zero COVID reality (read: any cases = cancelations), the IIHF refused to play the WJC in a bubble like last season, even as we were gaining lots of information from pro sports that the Omicron variant is bound to hit your team if you don't bubble. To make matters worse, not just did the teams not bubble, but they apparently stayed at a Marriott in Red Deer that was also hosting a wedding, and the wedding attendees were mingling with the players in the lobby (side note: who in the world gets married in December in Red Deer, AB?). Within a few short days, every team at the tournament had a COVID outbreak and it was canceled just four days in. Great job planning, IIHF. 

But just because the WJC lasted only a couple days doesn't mean Michigan's chance to experience the feeling of losing multiple key players to an international tournament has passed, thanks to the Olympics. The NHL opted not to send its players to the Olympics due to the Omicron variant wrecking its existing schedule, and without the big names, Canada and the US's Olympic committees are left scrambling to two reservoirs: Remember Some Guys names who have washed up in the Euro leagues/North American minors, and college players. I would expect each roster to be about 50% from each pool, and since Michigan has a host of great college players, they are particularly vulnerable. 

Two names from Michigan seem certain to be plucked by the Olympics, Matty Beniers and Owen Power. Both play polished, NHL-ready games, and both have experience playing against men in the World Championships last spring. Power has reportedly accepted an offer to play for Canada, while Beniers was the only Michigan player listed on the initial round of invites reported by Frank Seravalli. The expectation is that nearly every college player invited will accept. Who goes beyond that, though? There's a couple names I can think of. Kent Johnson will be another attractive option for Canada and was on the list of names under consideration, bringing NHL-caliber skill that will be lacking from these kinds of rosters. Thomas Bordeleau is already 20, as is Brendan Brisson, which makes them a little older of an option and perhaps more ready to play against men at the Olympics. We learned yesterday that Brisson has been contacted, but it is unclear if he will be on the roster yet. It sounds like younger and smaller guys are less likely to be picked, so a Luke Hughes might be more of a longshot. If I had to guess, four Michigan names will go (Power/Beniers/Brisson/Johnson), but it wouldn't shock me if it were as high as five (bonus: it appears that Old Friend Strauss Mann will be Team USA's starting goalie). 

These two teams stand to lose quite a bit to the Olympics [James Coller]

Just like with the WJC, this will hurt Michigan and Minnesota, but no one else in the B1G. The Gophers had three players listed on the initial collection of Team USA invites, faceoff ace Ben Meyers, freshman phenom Matthew Knies, and stout defender Brock Faber. That's probably the extent of guys on Minnesota I could see going to Beijing, but I suppose Chaz Lucius could be another option. Still, those are heavy losses. Both Michigan and Minnesota losing pieces for a couple weeks opens the door for Notre Dame or Ohio State to make a push for the regular season crown, which will make the month of February fascinating. 

As for the logistics, the Olympics begin on Feb. 3 but the first game for Team USA and Team Canada is not until Feb. 10. The Grand Forks Herald reported that players would not be expected to report to China until February, which, looking at Michigan's schedule, doesn't make much of a difference since the Wolverines don't play the weekend of Feb. 5-7. Group play wraps up on Feb. 13, but all twelve teams will make the knockout stage, which commences on Feb. 15. Given that Team USA and Canada are in a group with China and Germany, I would expect both to have high seeds which could give them a bye into the quarterfinals on Feb. 16. This is a long way of saying that the players would definitely miss both the MSU series on Feb. 11-12 and the OSU series on Feb. 18-19. The whole tourney (and the Olympics themselves) wrap up on Feb. 20 and so the players should be back for the crucial series @Notre Dame to end the regular season on Feb. 25-26, but jet lag could complicate things. 

That said, all this assumes that no one tests positive for COVID-19 while in Beijing, which is the inherent risk. The IOC has said that positive tests could result in a three to five week quarantine period in China, which, as you can imagine, was a major factor why the NHL's players, who previously were dying to go to the Olympics, cooled on the prospect of it (China is evidently not very high on many millionaires' lists of countries they would most like to be quarantined in). This is also why I was not a fan of the idea of Michigan players going to the Olympics in the hypothetical reality where I am Michigan's hockey coach. I'm fine with them missing two weeks... but potentially missing five weeks? Yeah, no thanks. I've heard the argument that players going to compete in these kinds of international competitions makes them stronger and returns them to college hockey tougher and improved, but even if you could guarantee that Michigan's guys would come back to the states even better, that's still a big risk I would prefer not to take. 

The problem is that Mel has backed himself into a corner where he has no choice but to be supportive of guys going, which he is. He wants to build his program through NHL talent and if he wants to keep getting future NHL kids, he can't be getting in a fight with players like Power and Beniers over going to play in the freaking Olympics. You can't recruit elite players who have the choice of the CHL or dozens of other programs if you are seen as anti-player, and that's what a fight over the Olympics would do to Mel's image. So, we have no choice but to hope for the best, and pray that no one tests positive in Beijing *gulp*. 

As of today, these are two NCAA Tournament teams [James Coller]

Sizing up the national and B1G picture 

Thanks to its beatdown of UMass, Michigan ends the weekend #2 in Pairwise, which is used to select the sixteen teams in the NCAA Tournament. They've got a great resume, with regulation wins over #1 Minnesota State, #7 Duluth, #8 Minnesota, #10 UMass (x2), and #13 Ohio State. Meanwhile, you have regulation losses to #4 WMU, and one each to Minnesota/OSU, and an OT win over WMU. Add it up, that's a 6-3-1 record against top 13 teams. It helps that PWR likes the B1G in general, with four teams either in or on the bubble, and two more a little beyond the bubble, but still in the top 25. 

Getting the 1st overall seed is a pretty big deal, because it allows you to face the Atlantic Hockey champion, who is vastly worse than the other fifteen teams in the tournament. So, watching whether Michigan can climb to 1st in PWR is a storyline to monitor. Minnesota State and St. Cloud are probably the biggest competitors for that seed. Minnesota is probably in the tourney, unless they skid hard in the second half (possible), while ND and OSU are bubble teams who could pad their chances if they take advantage of Minnesota and Michigan being shorthanded. 

As for the B1G, we end the weekend with a bit of a pile up. Michigan's best games have come in the non-conference, meaning they're 2nd nationally in PWR, yet are strangely tied for 2nd in their conference. Everyone has now played 12 games, with Minnesota leading the way at 25 points, Michigan and Ohio State tied at 23 points, and Notre Dame with 22 points. Very competitive! Michigan should have been in first place, but blowing a game in regulation at home to terrible Wisconsin, and blowing a pair of two-goal leads to Notre Dame to lose in OT will do that to you. Flip two of those three results around, and Michigan would be comfortably in first with 28 points, but alas. Work to do in the second half, which will get harder when the Olympics come into the equation. 

The good news is that Michigan will have a full roster for that huge tilt in Minneapolis against the Gophers in late January. It's also notable that Minnesota just had a stunning development this weekend, as Old Friend Jack LaFontaine was signed by the Carolina Hurricanes in the middle of the season, leaving the Gophers without their starting goalie for the remainder of the campaign. Justen Close, who has six career appearances in three seasons, and just 28 minutes played this season, will now start the rest of the way for Minnesota. Yikes. That opens the door for Michigan to potentially go into the Twin Cities and get a sweep. Sweeping opponents the next three weeks is paramount if the Wolverines want to put themselves in position to win the conference, as you need to build a lead that can give you padding when your big guns leave for a couple weekends. 

It was a rout last time we saw PSU [David Wilcomes]

A Quick PSU Preview 

Michigan brings Penn State to town this weekend to begin the stretch of six weekends against B1G foes to close out the regular season. The Nittany Lions have had a strong non-conference campaign, which has placed them on the periphery of the bubble, but lackluster play in conference has left them on the bottom rung of the conference standings. Indeed, PSU is currently 2-8-1-1 in the B1G standings, yet 11-9-1-1 overall with a positive goal differential. Weird. 

We've seen PSU before this year, with Michigan going into State College and slamming the Nittany Lions 5-1 and 6-2 in a two game series back in November. Repeating those two outcomes would be my expectation for this weekend. Guy Gadowsky's open, possession and shot-heavy system plays well to Michigan's strengths and the #1 weapon a weaker team can use to foil an offensive power like Michigan, a really good goalie, is not there. Oskar Autio has an .899 SV% on the season and Liam Souliere isn't any better with an .890. Penn State can still score like always (3.46 goals per game), but they're a team who plays a similar style to Michigan, yet they have worse finishers and a worse goalie. A regulation sweep should be the expectation this weekend at Yost.  

Elsewhere around the conference, Minnesota is playing a non-conference series against Alaska and MSU plays Wisconsin in a totally meaningless series. That makes ND at OSU as the only marquee series this weekend that Michigan should care about. I'd hope for a split there so that there's no movement in the standings.