Previously: Minnesota Offense 

After multiple years of finishing in the top 10 nationally in scoring defense, Minnesota has fallen to 45th this season in the category. Should it be reason for us to think this group is not up to the usual standard of being a strength of PJ Fleck's squad, or should we still have faith? Let's examine: 

The Film: Minnesota's three P5 opponents this season were Nebraska, UNC, and Northwestern. Though the 'Cats had success against the Gophers, they are unequivocally the worst offense of the three so I opted not to chart them (though I did incorporate film). UNC is the better offense than Nebraska, but UNC's pass-happy spread is not a terribly relevant comparison for Michigan. Thus, it was better off to chart Nebraska, while using a heavy amount of tape from the UNC game to more properly assess the pass defense of Minnesota. 

Personnel: Click for big

You can describe Minnesota as either a 3-4 or a 4-2-5/4-3. I opt for the latter, because I view the RUSH edge as essentially a WDE. The three who are definitely defensive linemen are 285 lb. "SDE" Jalen Logan-Redding and two true, hulking "DTs" Deven Eastern and Kyler Baugh. All three of these players had their moments in the tape I have reviewed but all three are best described as "just guys". They make players here and there, but also got moved far too much to believe they are stars without pass-rush dominance (which was absent). Anthony Smith comes in for Logan-Redding, but he doesn't come off the field too much. Eastern is the tackle who leaves the most and is generally replaced by Logan Richter, a player I thought was particularly weak. 

The RUSH spot, as Minnesota calls it, or WDE, as we are going to call it, is occupied by Danny Striggow. He's also fine in the same way the other DL starters are. Flashes but largely mediocre. If Striggow leaves, Jah Joyner is an intriguing player because he's Minnesota's only good organic rusher on the DL, but the rest of his game is underdeveloped. Chris Collins is the more SAM style guy to plug into that hole, capable of dropping into coverage at 255 lbs. much more than anyone else. I don't have anything too exciting to say about him. 

At the LB spot the two regular starters are MLB Maverick Baranowski and WLB Devon Williams. They are also fine, some very real tackling issues (as is the case across the defense), but they are not bad players. Williams is particularly good as a blitzer, while Baranowski did show some wobbles in coverage. If they go with a DB shaped "linebacker", it's HSP Jack Henderson, who is 215 lbs. and called the "STAR". PFF loves his game, I am more measured in my opinion of it. If Minnesota wants a third true LB on the field, then WMU transfer Ryan Selig enters the game, but I was not impressed by him. 

In the secondary I thought the play of corner Justin Walley was pretty strong, but a notch below star status. He's a returning starter and is opposite new starter Tre'Von Jones, a transfer from Elon. Jones looked iffy against Nebraska and had some rough moments against UNC, so he receives the cyan designation. The safeties are headlined by star of the defense Tyler Nubin, still sporting impeccable PFF grades which likely have not docked his NFL Draft profile, which projected him in the back end of the first round entering the season. The other safety is Darius Green, who seemed okay. The starting tandem is quality, but if either guy has to leave, Gopher fans should watch out for Aidan Gousby, who had to play 22 snaps against UNC and got COOKED. None of the four true DBs leave the field if they don't have to. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: meh]

Base set: Like I mentioned, if we're classifying Minnesota as having a four man DL (we are), then they are either in a 4-2-5 or a 4-3-4, depending on if it's the HSP Henderson or the LB Selig on the field. 4-2-5: 

4-3-4:

Pressure: Gophers were pretty blitzy against Nebraska, rushing more than four players on 37.5% of snaps, but I have to think this was a reaction to Nebraska's well established desire to run the ball because their QB in that game was... uh oh, Jeff Sims. It would've been interesting to see what they came in at against UNC, but I did not chart that game because Minnesota is not a worthy enough opponent to make it worth the time. As for dropping eight, they rushed fewer than four on 7% of snaps, which came out to four over the course of the game because there weren't many plays. 

Man or zone coverage: Minnesota was using all kinds of coverages in the game tape I watched. They flashed Quarters, Cov1, Cov3, some of the Cov2 stuff they did last year too. They like to start with a safety down to give you a 1-high look and that guy may step back to give you a strict quarters or roll down and it's pattern-match. If they blitz then they can sink into Cov1/Man, but on the whole I would certainly describe it as more zone, though the exact coverage varies from snap to snap. So, certainly more in the zone direction but lots of variety in looks and a decent bit of man involved too. 

Dangerman: One of the easiest decisions of the season is naming Tyler Nubin as Minnesota's Dangerman, a distinction he had on lockdown coming into the season and has not done anything to relinquish it. The performance against Nebraska, featuring the following game-deciding interception, cemented it: 

Oh and he had another INT in that game: 

I don't have too many clips from the games I saw of Nubin otherwise. He's a free safety, so if he's heavily involved in run defense (he wasn't), that's an extremely bad sign. However, I can tell you from the body of work he's established at Minnesota that he reads the QB extremely well and finds the football, like in those above clips, while being a sure-handed tackler. He is put in a tough position here with a crossing route and is beaten in coverage, but the tackle saves a TD: 

Nebraska ended up kicking a FG on this series, so Nubin saved four points for his team making up for his own coverage on that very play. I will leave you with this highlight reel of Nubin from last season: 

Expect Nubin to be drafted somewhere in the first three rounds in April (in Detroit!). 

Overview 

I mentioned at the top of the piece the drop in scoring metrics for Minnesota's defense. Do we think this indicates something real or not? I should preface my answer by saying that I am not a Minnesota expert. They are not on the schedule often, so I haven't been keeping up on them year by year. Part of their total defense metrics over the past few seasons is their ability to feast on the comically inept B1G West offenses and that will remain the same this season most likely (hello, Iowa). All that having been said, looking at this defense, they do not look as good as I remember Minnesota being the last few seasons and I do think they will finish beneath their usual performance in the assorted metrics. 

Across the five games they've played this season, the Gophers faced Nebraska and while they held the Huskers to under 300 yards, it was on a decent 5.3 YPP. Huskers didn't have too many explosives but were able to chip away on a per-play basis, especially on the ground. I'll show you those clips shortly. EMU was thoroughly stuffed in a locker (classic Minnesota) but UNC then torched this defense, 519 yards at a cool 6.7 YPP. Minnesota did fine on the ground but got ripped up through the air by the arm of Drake Maye.

Northwestern was held in check for awhile but then things unraveled in the latter third of that game, as Minnesota failed to present any sort of resistance to QB Ben Bryant and the 'Cats' passing attack. Finally, last weekend Louisiana Lafayette again didn't run too many plays or have much TOP, but they were able to gain 349 yards on just 52 plays for a nice 6.7 YPP, efficient on the ground and through the air. This Minnesota defense has held one team to under 5.3 YPP. That seems a bit worrying going into a game against Michigan. 

We'll analyze Minnesota in two phases, rush defense and pass defense. In the rush defense phase, I don't think this team has faced too may good attacks but against Nebraska, who are probably decent running the ball, the Huskers were able to get some decent push. They weren't paving Minnesota, but got enough traction on the defensive line to somewhat Army-them in terms of grinding out 3-4 yards per carry to sustain sizable drives. 

As I mentioned in the personnel section, the biggest storyline on the DL for me is that none of these players stand out as difference makers. 2nd/3rd & shorts were converted on the ground in fashions that looked far too easy for my liking: 

Another chunk gain: 

Schematically speaking, Nebraska wasn't doing anything too similar to Michigan because of how much of their rushing attack derives from the QB run (like the above), but the short yardage push the OL got to open holes were very real. I don't feel like calling out any starting names in particular on the DL because no one was woeful, they just weren't swimming past blocks for TFLs with any regularity and were giving 1-2 yards at the point of attack far too often. If I did have to name one culprit, it's backup DT Logan Richter, who is shoved aside here on a chunk gain run: 

DT #96 lined up over the center

Given the performance of the Nebraska OL against the Michigan DL (sans Mason Graham) last week, I feel pretty good about the ability of the MICHIGAN offensive line to get some serious push against the Gopher DL. That will place pressure on the LBs to be in the right spot and stop the bleeding up front from getting out of hand. To that note, I thought the Minnesota LBs were okay but neither regular starter flashed a ton for me. They ran into blocks and got stuck backside away from a hole more than I'd have liked but both had some moments in run defense. This was nice: 

While we're on the topic of stopping the run at the second level, we should talk about tackling because that is something to watch for. Minnesota is near the middle of the FBS in tackling as a team in PFF's grading but I think they should probably be lower. They are a pretty poor tackling team overall and it does show up in run defense: 

That's MLB Maverick Baranowski getting trucked there. Based on what I've seen from this defense, I will not be surprised to see Blake Corum ghost a couple guys in space and Kalel Mullings to run over a guy. It has the potential to compound the worries up front I have about this Minnesota defense. Talking about poor tackling is a decent segue into pas defense discussion because tackling snafus were a key way that Minnesota threw away that Northwestern game in pass defense- they allowed too many completions and comically poor tackling made it go from bad to worse. 

I'll show you some clips there in a moment, but as a general statement about the pass defense, the problem has been a combination of parts: not nearly enough organic pressure from the DL and then a mixture of coverage not being consistently great, QBs who were on fire, and poor tackling leading to YAC. We can start with the pressure... very little! For the season, Minnesota is middle of the FBS in both sack rate and PFF pass rush grade, which isn't great when they've also been blitzy in some games. Minnesota didn't generate much rushing four against Nebraska on passing downs and when it did, it came against Ole Turnstile himself, Turner Corcoran: 

That's SDE Jalen Logan-Redding with the sack there. Michigan does not have a tackle in the same stratosphere of Turner Corcoran in terms of suckage, so I don't think that's something we'll see often. Minnesota did get some decent rush against UNC (not sure UNC's OL is any good, though), with Jah Joyner's rush forcing this INT: 

Joyner is their best organic pass rusher, but his limitations elsewhere keep him in a bit role. Despite the moments they had against UNC, it still doesn't change my view much because the story of the Northwestern comeback was Ben Bryant having way too much time to throw vs. 4 man rushes and dissecting the Minnesota coverage, which was then exacerbated by Keystone Cops-level tackling from the Minnesota DBs. Bryant has all day to throw here and finds a man wide open: 

On the game-tying Northwestern drive, they were into a full prevent shell dropping eight and it wasn't making much difference in terms of impeding Bryant: 

Told you about the tackling!! With the game on the line, Minnesota sends a delayed blitz that doesn't do anything to stop Bryant from finding Old Friend AJ Henning running open into the end zone: 

On the topic of the Northwestern comeback, we do have to hand it to Ben Bryant. Yes, Minnesota didn't do nearly enough in terms of pressure to throw him off his game late, but the kid was dealing [I am allowed to say "kid" because Bryant is *checks notes* 7 months younger than me]. The receivers he found often weren't mega-open beyond the classic flats that Minnesota's zone was giving them late, but he was fitting the ball in. Similar story for UNC, where Drake Maye was dealing because his name is Drake f****** Maye and he's going to go in the first round of the NFL Draft in April (still in Detroit!). I think Michigan has a QB who can do this though: 

If there's a weak spot among the starters for Minnesota's secondary, it's CB Tre'Von Jones. I had some concerns against Nebraska and he got burned deep by the Tar Heels: 

Tyler Nubin is a really good safety, but he's not going to fix all of it, pressure not getting home often enough and QBs who are slicing and dicing through the various coverage mixes Minnesota tosses at you. The Gophers throw all kinds of different looks, more zone than man, but Maye had no problem torching it: 29/40, 414, 10.3 Y/A, 2 TD. A pair of INTs dampen it slightly, but yowza! 

In case you're wondering about how it looked vs. a massively worse passing attack in Nebraska, it was mostly Nebraska choosing to target short stuff, but Sims uncorked a few throws that looked like Drake Maye and again, it was there: 

Iowa and Illinois QBs aren't going to be good enough to exploit those opportunities, but a certain JJ McCarthy should be. Don't expect receivers to be running wide open tomorrow, but the DBs aren't good enough and the zone isn't suffocating enough to shut it all off and if your QB is accurate and adept at read a defense, he will find ways to move the football efficiently through the air against Minnesota. Especially when pressure is (largely) not getting home consistently.

One final note on Minnesota's defense: there should be plenty of opportunities to scramble. Nebraska did very well to open rush lanes for Sims to escape and run and if you get a QB as athletic as JJ McCarthy into the open field against these tacklers, I like Michigan's chances. Example: 

Another: 

Don't know how often JJ will need to be scrambling, but he will have opportunities should he so choose. 

What does this mean for Michigan? 

Minnesota's defense is probably not a major threat in this game. I think their run defense is generally well coached and repped, but they likely don't have the horses up front to hang in there against Michigan. I'd expect the Wolverines to be able to notch ~4 yards per carry consistently against the Gopher defense, but not sure about a ton of explosives on the ground (though tackling could create it!). Through the air, I think JJ McCarthy should be pretty well protected and given what he's shown us, will be able to complete passes as other QBs have to keep drives going. Don't throw it in the vicinity of Tyler Nubin, but otherwise you should be fine. I expect to see Michigan stitch some long drives together to munch the clock, as Nebraska did (they had 11 and 13 play drives) that get paid off with enough points that, when mixed with a strong defensive effort, result in a comfortable keeping of the Little Brown Jug.