Worst Lions Draft Ever?
There's a lot of material to work with here. Fair over Moss quickly comes to mind. Charles Rogers was a doozy. But this is unreal. Instead of taking Bijan they decide to take a lesser back at #12 that would have absolutely been available at 18. Then at 18 they take a MLB (least valuable position player in the NFL?) that would have absolutely been available at 34. Then at 34 they take the 3rd best TE in the draft instead of the best TE that was taken by the Raiders a pick later.
The lions are that guy in your fantasy league that drafts so poorly every year that you don't even make fun of him anymore. You just encourage him to keep putting his dead money in and keep trying. Or maybe it's just your drunk uncle....
April 28th, 2023 at 11:13 PM ^
Mock drafts are the opposite of applicable data, they are guesses by people not making the picks
Lol. You and a bunch of NFL GMs? I’m sure you and the dozens of mock drafts you follow have tons of scouts checking out all these players, right? Mock drafts are so fucking dumb and are never remotely close to how the draft plays out.
You never know how these guys are going to pan out...but for me, it's all about value for your pick and they seem to be oblivious to that concept.
If all of the these guys are pro bowlers...no one will think anything of it 5 years from now.
But I still approach the draft with the mindset of, "did I get my guy right before someone else was going to get my guy." It's gambling, but how close can I get that margin.
There's no way to know for sure, but there is plenty of data to suggest that you're going to be okay 95% of the time.
So to your point. They could've taken someone else at #12. Gibbs at #18, which I think is right before teams would really be looking at him (late first round). You can take Campbell at #34 and if you really love LaPorta...the Lions have a BUNCH of picks left. Trade up and get him. Even if thats at #36.
If the Lions went...
#12 - Christian Gonzalez
#18 - Jahmyr Gibbs
#34 - Jack Campbell
#36 - Sam LaPorta (trade #48 and #55 to the LAR for #36 and #77)
...no one would be saying anything, this would be an A-level draft class thus far, IMO. You get the exact same players, plus Gonzalez.
The Lions may have the best draft ever, but I think the above scenario was possible. Unfortunately, we will never know for sure.
April 28th, 2023 at 11:16 PM ^
Sure but from reporting on other teams' thinking, it sounds like teams were planning to pick or trade up to get Gibbs before 18 and Campbell before 34. So this hypothetical isn't really relevant
April 28th, 2023 at 11:20 PM ^
Your making the BIG assumptions that Gibbs and Campbell would have been there at 18 and 34 respectively based upon nothing more than MEDIA Talking heads GUESSING (ie mock drafts)...
Nothing to do with NFL scouts or GM (which no one really knows).
So yay I could wave a magic wand and say that could happen. I could also say that Will Anderson was going to be available at 6 (which were in several mock drafts, your special source of "data") but that was never going to happen either....
April 29th, 2023 at 12:24 AM ^
According to the Athletic, the Jets were going to take Gibbs at 13, and if not the Pats at 14. So that's out.
The Giants were in on Campbell as well as some other teams late in the first. He would not have been there at 34.
The Lions tried to trade back from 18 (this was reported before the draft) but couldn't find a partner that wouldn't send them too far back to get Campbell.
I'm not saying this is the best draft ever, or Holmes can do no wrong, but too many people watch some YouTuber and think they know players' values.
positional value is how you end up with teez tabor over alvin kamara.
I didn't say positional value. Nothing I said has anything to do with the position the guy plays. So miss me with the smart remark if you've misread what I've stated in far too many words.
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I said, taking guys right before their projected to be drafted.
Read above (Gonzalez at 12, Gibbs at 18, etc.) One could argue that every one of those guys is still a reach.
But if you love Gibbs, take him at #18 instead of #28 where he's projected...but not #12.
There is a way to be conservative without being overly conservative to "get your guy."
And clearly this is the case, because people are saying, "well if you really love your guy...it doesn't matter where you take him." Bullshit. If that's the case, if the Lions are so sold on Gibbs, why wouldn't you take him at #6? He's your guy, right? It doesn't matter as long as you get him, right?
So there is obviously a measure of projection and risk as to where guys are going to get picked. My point is that the Lions are being overly conservative when they could be merely conservative and get the same guy and better *VALUE* for him by selecting him a little later.
Fwiw I think New England reached for Tom Brady at #199, since most mocks had him around #215. Terrible value!
So you would have waited to take Mazi until the second round? How did that work out for you?
The point is the projection is rarely very accurate. The mocks don’t match the GM boards, and Holmes’ board has been better than the mocks for each year he has been in charge. He had Gibbs higher than the “experts” and expected that some other GMs did too. He wanted him on the lions so he took him. Not sure why people think theses guys are even looking at the same info we look at. Until Holmes has a bad draft, I’m fine giving him the benefit of the doubt.
So instead of Tyree Wilson, Bijan Robinson, or Jalen Carter we got:
Jack Campbell and Sam LaPorta
I guess it could work out to be an ok trade, but it sure feels like we should be drafting studs over quantity at this point.
There is something amiss with Carter. Both Seahawks and Lions passed on him. Wilson has a foot injury. Robinson and Gibbs are essentially the same.
Was not necessarily advocating for any of those picks, just identifying the ones who were picked between 6 and 12 when we traded down. Anyone else was on the board and available at 12.
Gibbs and LaPorta, Campbell was pick 18.
You should at least have your facts right while complaining.
You can't judge this for at least 3 years. A lot of teams "win" the draft and then have little to show for it after a few seasons.
Yet many give grace to GMs because of one draft. I guess either or.
Grab the CB from KState next and a dlineman and it could look up. If available with the 3rd second round pick I’d take Turner just because
We will only know after they suit up. Every player drafted so far fit a need and could easily be a plus player. Holmes has earned some trust.
I think were really stretching out the term need here. If replacing a guy still under an affordable contract for another season is a need -- what isnt? Pretty much any position defensively was a more pressing need than RB.
I'm not thrilled with it, but c'mon. It's way too early to evaluate in any scenario, and this is the *Lions* we are talking about.
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
Might be time to quit drinking and go to bed.
Pretty sure that the Lions' management and coaches know exactly what they are looking for in prospects. How many of the draft "experts" have ever been employed by a NFL franchise? The truth is, we won't know if any of these picks are good or bad for a couple of years, at least. Brad Holmes has a pretty solid draft history, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.
For all the posts here, how did Holmes address one of the worst defenses? Signing a couple CBs in free agency falls far short.
Best LB in the draft.
Best safety in the draft.
Developmental DT that they think is a sleeper.
In the last 10 games last year, the Lions D was middle of the pack. I would have liked to see them get a DT earlier, but it's an offensive league.
You mean, is this the worst Lions draft ever?
Oh good lord no, not by a longshot. Not when we consider the stretch of time throughout which this team has existed as an NFL franchise.
I mean, clearly Brad Holmes doesn't emphasize conventional notions of positional value in this particular draft, but the more I have thought about it, the more I think it is explainable at least in part. I will say, however, that I believe he has to be spot on with Gibbs at #12 if he wants to stop the grumbling, and as for Campbell at #18, I suppose that if you really, really want a guy, it's difficult to know when to pull the trigger, especially if you have no guarantee (though I do agree there was a significant chance Campbell was still around tonight) that you'll have this chance later.
If you would have said that the Lions drafted Gibbs at 18, Campbell at 34 and La Porta with 45, I’d have been very happy with those picks. So the fact that each is only a slight reach, isn’t a big deal to me. I liked those players before the draft and I like them now.
The argument is that they would have been available later and you could have gotten another player in addition to them. But that’s only based on draft analysts’ subjective opinion. Front offices only tell them what they want them to know. Draft rankings are still fairly accurate but it’s not a science and the “positional value” isn’t something front offices care about as much as the draftniks do.
bingo, that's my entire point.
Exactly what I said above, and you still get #12 to get someone else.
THAT is the key.
You got your same guys and you basically get a "free" #12 draft choice to get someone in addition to the guys they selected.
Not sure why people don't understand that.
The only quip I'd have is LaPorta at #45. If he's your guy, you have to trade up and get him as soon as Mayer comes off the board.
But the Lions have more than enough ammo to do that.
But again, it’s based off of what we THINK we know before the draft based on rankings of various analysts. It’s no guarantee they do last that long. And if they are priorities for you, gotta pick when they’re there and not just hope you get lucky.
Lions obviously came into the draft with RB and LB as priorities. They came away with the second best RB and arguably the best LB. Both positions that are not crazy deep compared to TE and CB (both deemed needs) where you could afford to wait and get a good one. Based on what they deemed their priorities, they won.
From a Bears perspective, I'm glad they traded Hock and replaced with Laporta.
April 28th, 2023 at 10:04 PM ^
About $8 million salary difference. Bigger picture…
April 28th, 2023 at 10:22 PM ^
I don't think he ever comes close to being the threat that Hockenson was in the passing game. He was a matchup nightmare. Still have to deal with him in Minnesota, but I think the Lions were on the cusp of dominating the division (especially with Minnesota's QB decision coming up). I feel like the Lions are spinning their wheels with Hockenson going, Williams getting suspended, Swift requesting a trade, and a questionable draft that could've been a monster draft with all the early picks they had. Obviously I'm just a guy on a forum making guesses though. Maybe they're making all the right moves.
The Lions started winning after the Hock trade, Williams barely played and Swift is barely healthy and his contract is up after this year.
Lions got cheaper versions of Hock and Swift (had he been extended) for the next few years. And La Porta will be a better blocker than Hock long term IMO.
Plus, their free agency moves were very good this offseason with massive holes filled on the defense. So I don’t really see the wheel spinning
lol, if my post is somehow wrong, I don't want to be right. how anyone can actually defend this fucking bullshit is beyond me. enjoy.
Disagreeing with your silly clickbait post title is not the same thing as defending the draft decisionmaking. You said something absurd and you're getting called on it and you're suggesting that the people who disagree with you think this is a great draft; that's just dishonest.
We all say dumb stuff here. Take the negs, dust yourself off, and do better next time.
His other examples were bad too, as they were done with 20/20 hindsight.
BTW 19 other teams passed on Randy Moss, many of whom took busts or pedestrian players
And Charles Rogers was seen as a slam dunk stud receiver at the time whose career was derailed by injuries
April 28th, 2023 at 10:22 PM ^
Who is “we” kemosabe?
OP, the Lions could’ve picked a dirty carpet square, a 8 year old rescue dog with a bad eye, a McDonalds double cheeseburger combo meal and Helen Keller and 90% of the posters here would defend it not because they agree with the picks but because they really want them to hit.
I've got the Lions taking Keller in round 6 on my mock draft, so there's that...
April 28th, 2023 at 10:02 PM ^
Word on the street is the double cheeseburger meal is missing the fries so that may knock it out of the draft all together. With the fries, it’s easily a solid round 3 pick.
April 28th, 2023 at 10:25 PM ^
I’m mad at you. Why would you do this to the McDouble combo meal (paired with a 4 piece McNuggets, possibly the best junk food combo situation ever invented).
April 29th, 2023 at 12:29 AM ^
This is the most accurate take in this crazy thread, MGrowOld.
Finally! Branch is the first pick of theirs I like this draft.
Samesies. Switch his position with Campbell's (however unlikely) and it's a whole different conversation.
But why?
This is the proof the draft "experts" had a completely different board than every NFL team full of teams of professional scouts.
This is such a strange mindset.
Is Gibbs the lesser back? He is more athletic is faster and quicker and is a better receiver. Bijan has more size then him and also has more wear and tear. Do you research before sounding off.
Agreed
April 28th, 2023 at 10:08 PM ^
I like Gibbs a LOT… I suspect in a couple years people will consider him a steal.
Gibbs can’t be an every down back. Robinson can. That’s the major difference. And it’s a big difference.
Gibs health will be the main factor if he can succeed. Guy isn’t actually big