Why always call for 3 pointers down 1 or 2?

Submitted by philibuster on March 31st, 2021 at 12:28 AM

In this game and the OSU BTT game Howard called for 3 pointers at the end. None went down. Why not drive to the rack? Get a high percentage chance at the lead or tie. It's like he can't help but want to win iconically with a 3.

jdraman

March 31st, 2021 at 12:29 AM ^

Howard did not call for a three pointer at the end of the OSU game. Please go look up Ant Wright's explanation of the play. 

Tonight, I can't give you an explanation. I thought Smith's shot on the full-court play after Juzang's missed FT was a good shot. But, the shot for Franz on the previous possession was puzzling to say the least. 

Edit: Re-watched the possession that led to a shot for Franz, it was just a PnR where the UCLA guard went under the screen. Franz correctly read the defender's move and decided to take the open look. He just short armed it. 

bo_lives

March 31st, 2021 at 1:24 AM ^

Shooting a basketball is not a memoryless statistical phenomenon. Out of context, Smith's shot and Wagner's shot were both decent looks. In context, Smith was 1-6 when he took the second to last shot, and Wagner was 1-8 then 1-9 when he took the third to last shot and then the final shot. Why go to those guys? As you say, Chaundee was 2-3. He was 2-2 from 3 in the FSU game and 3-6 from 3 in the LSU game. He was definitely the hottest hand. Brooks would have been the second best option. Wagner and Smith should have been the last options.

Mannix

March 31st, 2021 at 6:10 AM ^

That concept didn’t appear to cross the minds of Michigan defenders or the staff as Juzang lit them up for 28 on a wide range of him in iso (what a concept!), & running off screens (who knew you could get your best shooter open off screens without the ball that don’t have just one move everyone knows?) 

They got the ball to their best player and Michigan had 4 players trying to stuff the ball to a one dimensional player who will be very good once he can shoot beyond 5 feet and use his right hand.   

UMinSF

March 31st, 2021 at 2:31 AM ^

That may have worked with the time left when Franz shot. 

For Smith's, Michigan had to go the length of the floor in 6 seconds. In that situation, putting the ball in the hands of your super fast PG is the right play. It just is. 

At that point, Smith had 3 choices, and 2 were super high-risk:

1. Find a wide-open shooter, hope the pass is clean, the catch is clean and the shooter hits the shot - before the buzzer. Super high risk.

2. Drive as far as you can, watching the clock to make sure you get a shot off in time. Smith is tiny, and UCLA would have had a couple of guys attempting to swat him. Super high risk.

3. Drive until you're close enough for a clean look. That's what he did. His guy backed down - he was open. This was the right move.

I haven't liked Howard's/Michigan's end of game execution - and IMO Franz's shot was awful. But getting Smith a clean shot right at the 3-pt line in 6 seconds is excellent execution. He just missed, dammit.

Blue-Ray

March 31st, 2021 at 1:28 AM ^

I liked all the shots.

Franz had a wide open 3 for a 2pt lead. On a miss we’re crashing the boards with a considerable size advantage for a put back. He just happened to airball it so that messed things up. Still, a wide open normal motion shot is the best you could hope for. 

Drive to the goal and make it and UCLA gets the last shot only down 1.

Drive and get fouled and it’s pressure Free throws just to hopefully go up 1... And UCLA gets the last shot. 

Mike Smith is the fastest ball handler who could get to a normal shot the quickest. He just missed a shot he could have easily made from a good look. 

UCLA chose to let that dude shoot a corner 3 to seal the game prior to all this. Same concept, but theirs was worse other than because he missed. They could’ve literally done anything. 

Side Note**FWIW I liked the D.Walton 3pointer a few years ago as well. 

Blue-Ray

March 31st, 2021 at 2:06 AM ^

My bad, maybe Walton’s toenail was on the line. Point was he took a wide open deep jumpshot he usually makes, rather than driving and hoping for a foul. 

Players would’ve made 100% of the shots they didn’t take. Had transfer Chaundee missed the last shot, Franz should’ve taken it. Had transfer Mike Smith made that 3, it would’ve been the best and most logical decision to make. 

Freshman Poole was 1-3 from Three in the Houston game prior to the memorable shot. Mo was 2-4. D-Rob was 3-7. Rahk was 0-6....Guess Mo should’ve taken shot over another sagging big man despite the fact that Poole practices that shot so it’s normal to him.  

 

UMinSF

March 31st, 2021 at 2:34 AM ^

Blu-ray, that's an excellent point about UCLA. Their last shot was awful, and a 91% FT shooter missed. 

Good to remember these are kids under enormous pressure. Crazy stuff happens.

 

Edit: Accidentally gave myself an upvote, so DV myself to make up. I missed too, it seems.

pryoo

March 31st, 2021 at 6:13 AM ^

I hope Franz returns bc that shot, while open, was not a good one. It was from near NBA range and essentially bailed out the defense. 

With his length and driving ability he needs to go to the hoop there. Put pressure on the D and also the refs by drawing contact.

Hopefully he stays and works on going to his left and getting consistent with his shot. I don't see much of a mid range game but a drive and pull up jumper or some fadeaways would be good considering his length. 

I'd hate to see him leave early because he's not ready to take on nba small forwards imho. His one move seems to be driving to the right for a floating layup and the nba will game plan that away in an instant. 

Maize and Luke

March 31st, 2021 at 12:30 AM ^

Down by one let’s airball a 3, down by two let’s rush a 3, still down by two let’s launch a 3. W T F?!?! Wagner’s biggest asset is his length. Drive to the fucking basket!!!

Maize and Luke

March 31st, 2021 at 8:10 AM ^

He did a lot of good things, he always does. He was a crucial part of this team’s success this year. But you could tell from the first couple shots that his shot was not there. I know shooters shoot to get back into rhythm but unfortunately we didn’t have the luxury of time for him to get any kind of rhythm going. My heart aches for the guy, you know he’s taking it harder than anyone.

runandshoot

March 31st, 2021 at 12:31 AM ^

Probably because refs tend to swallow their whistles at the end of close games, so players are probably going to get hacked in the lane with no call.

Michigan is such a good shooting team (normally), that a good look at a three to end the game is worth taking.

pryoo

March 31st, 2021 at 6:43 AM ^

I don't know this to be true. At end of games the offensive player will get the call especially if they're hacked. 

Plus Ucla wouldn't want to give up a 3 point play so I don't see them playing aggressive D. Which is why I think Smith could have gone to the hole 

trustBlue

March 31st, 2021 at 2:11 AM ^

There was 0.5 seconds left on the clock when the ball was inbounded. You want to throw the ball inside to Hunter to try to execute a post play with 0.5 seconds left on the clock? That sounds brilliant.

From what I could tell Chaundee got the first look on the inbounds, but he was clearly being denied the ball by Jaquez. Wagner was the only one who was open.

 

bo_lives

March 31st, 2021 at 1:33 AM ^

Well Brandon Johns was 4-5, so yes, actually that would have been a better option. Have you ever played basketball before? Sometimes you can't miss, and sometimes you can't hit the broad side of a barn. I mean sure Smith and Wagner were decent shooters over the course of the season, but it's not like they have a 100% pure Columbian, Clay Thompson-esque stroke to begin with. And if I was a coach I wouldn't let MJ himself take the final shot if he was 1-9 from the field up to that point.

UMinSF

March 31st, 2021 at 2:51 AM ^

Michigan got a reasonably good shot off with half a second on the clock. You can't really expect any better than that. 

I've watched dozens of games at all levels with last instant shots - that's about as good a look as you'll see. 

Two that I remember working were Steph's miracle heave from almost half court ("Bang! Bang!") and Kawhi's miracle against the sixers. Both were memorable because the shots were almost impossible. Franz had a pretty decent look.

Naked Bootlegger

March 31st, 2021 at 10:41 AM ^

Take a deep breath.   Have you ever considered that the inbounds play had a progression of reads, similar to a QB dropping back in the pocket?   I would venture to guess that the first read was a pass in the lane for a quick shot or tip in.  Note, though, that UCLA employed a 2-3 zone defense on the last play, so that immediately mucked up the lane.   Wagner may have been the 2nd or 3rd option on the designed play.   

It's a tough ask to get a clean look with 0.5 seconds on the clock.   But I'm sure it's an easy task for an irate fanbase swilling beer on their couch or easy chair.

cbutter

March 31st, 2021 at 12:33 AM ^

Smiths shot was the best look you could hope for in that situation. It’s that or a highly contested shot at the rim. 
 

Franz play was a PnR situation and he chose to take the 3 when they dropped both. 
 

Both were wide open looks, and if you tie the game, you’re leaving your fate in someone else’s hands because they will for sure have the last shot. 

4th phase

March 31st, 2021 at 12:35 AM ^

Honestly the looks weren’t that bad. I think the theory is that they are going to pack the paint cause they figured you were going for 2. I could see it either way though, and I don’t think the plays should have gone to Franz and Smith who were having off nights. I would have gone to Eli and Chaundee 

brax

March 31st, 2021 at 12:39 AM ^

I don’t think that the Wagner shot (airball) was supposed to be the play that was drawn up. Wagner just found himself incredibly open so he pulled the trigger. It’s a shot he’s very capable of making and don’t hate that he took it. 
 

On the other hand, I don’t like Smith’s pull up. Drive the lane and make a shot or get fouled. If UCLA collapses the D, kick it out to an open Brown, Wagner or Brooks.