Who are we rooting for in the Big 12 and AAC Championship?
Michigan is obviously the biggest rooting interest. I think we can all agree on Georgia as well.
Who are we rooting for in the other two games? I would think we're hoping for a Cincinnati blowout and Oklahoma State close win, because if Michigan were to win Cincinnati would be an easier semi final game. Am I missing something?
December 1st, 2021 at 2:02 PM ^
Cheer for chalk
December 1st, 2021 at 3:59 PM ^
Definitely in the UGA game. I guess Cinci as well since that would ensure a 2-3 Michigan v Cinci matchup, provided Michigan wins of course, but I'd be fairly indifferent between Cinci, Ok St. or ND (or maybe even Baylor).
Ok St. - Baylor is kind of irrelevant unless we want Ok St to keep ND out because to hell with ND, which ok sure.
The interesting thing to ponder is whether Michigan has a chance if they lose. ESPN gives them a 76% chance to win the game and 85% chance to make the playoff implying there's a decent chance they could lose and still make the playoff.
It would be hard to see the committee putting them in over Iowa if they have the same record and Iowa beats them on a neutral field but on the other hand, it would be hard to see them moving Iowa, losers of two games to unranked opponents by more than two scores, up from #13 all the way into the top 4.
So if M lost a fluky game, Bama loses, Cinci loses, Ok St loses, Oregon loses, could the final four look like this?
1. UGA
2. ND
3. Baylor
4. Michigan
I'm not even confident ND would move ahead of Cinci if they lose. Can you put a team that hasn't beaten a single team that you think is top 25 ahead of team with the same record that beat said team by 11 at their place? I don't think you can.
One could make an argument that Baylor could move all the way up to #2 if everyone in front of them loses (save for ND which doesn't play) and that Iowa and Michigan could be #3 and #4 respectively. Bama would have to get blown out though.
December 1st, 2021 at 8:38 PM ^
Cheer for Bryce Young so CJ Stroud won't win the Heisman?
Or cheer against Bryce Young so Aiden Hutchinson might win the Heisman?
December 1st, 2021 at 2:05 PM ^
Yep, Georgia winning, Cincinnati winning, OSU (not that OSU) winning. This should solidify Michigan playing Cincinnati and give us a more favorable match up for the CFP! BEAT IOWA!!!
December 1st, 2021 at 2:07 PM ^
If they both win though and Oklahoma State blows out Baylor, I would assume Oklahoma State would jump to 3?
December 1st, 2021 at 2:11 PM ^
I mean, I guess there is potential for that. I don't see it happening though, if Cincinnati is undefeated, they should moved up to #3 to take Bama's place. I mean, the committee has done some wild stuff, but I don't seem them jumping Ok St. two spots past an undefeated team.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:22 PM ^
I absolutely could see them jumping OkState above Cinci with OKState getting another top-10 win. I'm sure the committee would also rather see UGA/Cinci and UM/OSU if they had to
December 1st, 2021 at 2:30 PM ^
IF Ok. St. blows Baylor out, sure. I'm not scared of playing Ok. St. either. But Ok. St. winning close is not jumping two spots, just my opinion.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:14 PM ^
Nearly all of the bowl predictions at this point project OK St. jumping to #3. They seem to be setting it up in the most recent CFP rankings. The CFP has absolute made jumps like this before - like when OSU jumped TCU way back when.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:58 PM ^
I mean, 1-loss Michigan just jumped 0-loss Cinci and 1-loss Alabama with a quality top-10 win. Obviously Baylor isn't OSU... but they're still a top-10 team in the eyes of the committee.
I can absolutely see Okie St jumping Cinci.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:27 PM ^
The Okies play in a real conference and play a championship game. It's only sensible they should be ahead of Cincy and Notre Dame.
TBH, I think I'd rather play OSU. There is a massive downside to losing to Cincinnati even if they should be the easier out.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:31 PM ^
Both are pretty good draws relative to what the playoffs normally looks like. Either one is great for me.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:29 PM ^
They aren't really "jumping too spots" though, if we are talking about the situation with Bama losing the SEC champ game. Its just OK State moving ahead of Cinci. Which, I think with another Top-10 win, even if it is close, is very possible and borderline likely.
The CFP has done this before, and they have clearly been trying to keep Cinci as close to #4 as they can and giving themselves ways to have Cinci jumped
December 1st, 2021 at 2:38 PM ^
There's no guarantee that Cinci simply moves up with a Bama loss. In 2014, TCU went into championship game weekend 10-1 and ranked #3 in the CFP polls. The Big XII didn't have a conference championship game at the time (due to only having 10 members), and for whatever reason many Big XII teams had two bye weeks during the season and played their regular season finales on conference championship weekend. Despite annihilating ISU 55-3 and finishing as Big XII co-champion at 12-1, TCU dropped from #3 to #6 in the final CFP poll. While being jumped by 12-1, fellow co-champ Baylor (which moved from #6 to #5) made some sense, as Baylor had beaten TCU head-to-head and finished the season by beating top 10 KSU, TCU also was jumped by a 13-0 FSU they had previously passed after weeks of shaky play, and an OSU team they were ahead of all season.
The Big XII went into the final week with teams at #3 and #6, and despite both teams winning (one big, and the other a solid win over a top 10 team) finished at #5 and #6 and on the outside looking in. The message from the CFP committee was clear: the Big XII was punished for not playing a conference championship game. They latched onto any excuse they could (most notably OSU crushing Wisconsin) to drop TCU out of the top four, and even though Baylor rose, it wasn't high enough.
Now granted Cinci does play a championship game, but I could see similar logic playing out since they're not a P5 team and play such a weak schedule. It wouldn't shock me at all if they ended up #4 (we jumped them this week, and it wouldn't surprise me if OkSt jumped them with a win over Baylor), and honestly if Michigan, Bama and OkSt win I could very easily see a scenario where it goes Bama-M-UGA-OkSt and Cinci is left out entirely. I don't agree with it--I think that if Cinci wins, they've earned their shot, especially in a year lacking four clear-cut P5 candidates (compare with, e.g., 2019, with 13-0 LSU, OSU and Clemson and 12-1 OU). But given the committee's track record, I could totally see it...
December 1st, 2021 at 2:16 PM ^
I can see the committee jumping OK St over Cincy. I don't care as long as Michigan wins the B1G to guarantee their spot! I would prefer OK St and Cincy both win so that ND doesn't somehow sneak in, because "To hell with Notre Dame!"
December 1st, 2021 at 2:16 PM ^
I would guess differently since Cincy would have beaten a top 5 team (ND) and OSU lost to Iowa St.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:21 PM ^
OK State would also have two wins over a top-10 Baylor and a win over top-15 Oklahoma
December 1st, 2021 at 3:41 PM ^
I mean, I'm good either way. In the history of the CFP, usually the 3 seed as WAY more difficult than either of those teams. If we win I'll be thrilled with either
December 1st, 2021 at 3:40 PM ^
This is a great point. I highly recommend everyone texting a buckeye friend (if you must) on Saturday around game time with a "good luck in the championship against baylor tonight". I know they'll appreciate that you thought of them.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:06 PM ^
Cincy for sure. Wouldn't bother me to see Baylor beat OKST so ND can get in and be bludgeoned 49-3 by Georgia.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:07 PM ^
Cincy big enough to be the third seed and OSU (NTOSU) small enough to be the fourth seed
Biggest rooting interest is Georgia. Bama winning would be a catastrophe and guarantee that we would have to beat Bama and Georgia to win the national title
December 1st, 2021 at 2:08 PM ^
UGA, Cinci, Ok St.
If this happens there's no way for Bama, OSU or ND to leapfrog anyone and find their way into playoffs. You know the committee is looking for any reason to put Bama or OSU in, and get Cinci or Ok St out.
December 1st, 2021 at 7:31 PM ^
Dead on right here.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:08 PM ^
Basically what you said. We want the matchups to be Georgia-OK St and Michigan-Cinci. So we want us and Georgia to win (ideally Georgia wins a defensive struggle while we blow out Iowa so Hutch can build his Heisman case) while Cinci wins big and Ok St wins but not by enough to jump Cinci.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:14 PM ^
Cincinnati would be fine to play, so I will root for them.
What happens if Bama beats Georgia?
They may move Bama to #1, and Georgia to #3.
You never know how the conferences assign which refs to be in certain games, just so they get 2 teams in the playoffs. You know, like certain refs that live in ohio get to ref the biggest games that osu plays.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:21 PM ^
True, the CFP 4 get $6million a piece/conference. And on the flip side I would not expect Michigan to get screwed by the refs in Indy either.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:41 PM ^
Good point(s), especially regarding the Indy refs.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:39 PM ^
Football Zebras has already published the list of officials for every conference championship game:
December 1st, 2021 at 6:37 PM ^
I don't recognize any of the names on the list. Which is a good thing since you only generally know the really shitty refs.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:15 PM ^
OSU will pass Cincy. They set that up by having them jump ND this week. That would give Georgia a Cincy matchup and easiest path for them to the title game.
This would also put OSU in Dallas which will create more buzz for the Cotton Bowl.
Root against OSU.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:53 PM ^
I guess you're assuming Georgia would prefer to play outdoors in Miami? I'm not sure if that is entirely true. Travel from Athens to Dallas is similar enough distance wise as Athens to Miami.
If I'm Georgia, I want the least number of variables to happen so I can use my vast talent advantages without bullshit like sloppy conditions. Last thing I would want is a downpour and shitty conditions while trying to play a team I should beat.
Of course if OSU stays at #4 then Georgia would choose Miami so it's not a de-facto home game for OSU.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:16 PM ^
Rooting for: Georgia (blowout), Michigan (duh), Cincy, and Oklahoma State
That would likely put Michigan against Cincy which is favorable in the semifinal. If Baylor beats Oklahoma state that could open the door for ND but I think Georgia takes care of either.
I think worst case besides Michigan losing is Alabama beating Georgia. I don’t want and I’m sure the nation doesn’t want two SEC teams in the playoff.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:19 PM ^
I'm really not concerned about match-ups for Michigan in the playoffs. Just get there then worry about whoever we get.
That being said, I'm happy for Oklahoma State fans and would be bummed if they got bumped. They've been similarly under the thumb of their rival so Michigan and Oklahoma State overcoming that hurdle in the same year is cool.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:20 PM ^
I feel like the answer is Cincinnati and Baylor. A Baylor win would probably cement Cincinnati as the #3 seed because I doubt ND would pass them with no Championship game and the head-to-head loss. I would prefer to play Cincinnati in the semifinal. Another bonus would be seeing ND get blasted by Georgia in the other semifinal.
But if Cincinnati were to lose, I hope Okahoma St loses as well. I would love to have a crack at ND in the semifinal.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:42 PM ^
Honestly, I'd rather have OkSt win and guarantee themselves a spot than have the outside chance that a 2-loss Bama or Ohio St. jumps ND and sneaks in at #4...
December 1st, 2021 at 2:21 PM ^
If we win, I would want to play OK State. So OK State wins big over Baylor and a Cincy loss and an Bama loss.
December 1st, 2021 at 4:24 PM ^
I don't love the idea of playing Ok St in Dallas but they are the worst team in contention according to SP+. At the end of the day, it's anybody but UGA or Bama for me though.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:22 PM ^
I have a strange feeling that Oklahoma State is going to jump Cincinnati if both teams win this weekend. Only because I have no faith in the SEC not getting the easiest game in the eye of the public.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:27 PM ^
I think best case for us:
Georgia pummels Alabama.
Cincinnati pummels Houston
Baylor beats Oklahoma State.
Probable rankings:
Georgia
Michigan
Cincinnati
Notre Dame
Committee would be extremely unlikely to jump Notre Dame over an undefeated Cincinnati.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:44 PM ^
Addendum:
MICHIGAN ANNIHILATES IOWA.
Georgia pummels Alabama.
Cincinnati pummels Houston
Baylor beats Oklahoma State.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:51 PM ^
Well duh, I didn't think that had to be specified!
December 1st, 2021 at 3:33 PM ^
The problem with this is whether the committee decides to put in a one-loss ND that did not play a conference championship game (and lost its coach) above a two-loss Alabama (that lost the SEC championship game to UGA). The ESPN Predictor puts that at about a 60/40 split. (Even with Cincinnati and Ok State (and UGA and UM) winning, the odds of Alabama being chosen still remain around 20%, according to the ESPN Predictor.) In short, assuming UGA, Cincinnati, and UM victories, an Ok. St. loss roughly doubles the chances of Alabama making the playoffs (to about 43%). I would prefer that Alabama not be in the playoffs.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:28 PM ^
ESPN's playoff predictor seems to think that if Houston and Baylor both win, Michigan will make the playoff regardless of the B1G Championship result.
December 1st, 2021 at 3:17 PM ^
THIS. Let's say Alabama, Iowa, Houston and Baylor all win, since the Bama win makes it harder for Michigan to get in. You have Alabama #1 and Georgia #2, as both are 12-1 and Bama has the head-to-head and conference championship. Here's the choices for the remaining two spots:
Cincinnati (12-1 with a loss to Houston)
Notre Dame (12-1 with a loss to Cinci)
Michigan (11-2 with a win over OSU and two losses to top-10 teams, since Iowa would likely move up)
Iowa (11-2 with a conference championship and win over Michigan but losses to two unranked teams)
Baylor (11-2 with a conference championship, a split with Ok. St, and wins over BYU and Oklahoma, but a bad loss to TCU)
Ok. St. (11-2 but just lost to Baylor)
Ohio State (10-2 and got pantsed by Michigan)
Oregon (11-2 if they beat Utah, but got pantsed by them in their other meeting and their win over Ohio State is trumped by the loss to a terrible Stanford)
I think the choice in that scenario boils down to four teams: Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Michigan, Baylor. Baylor likely gets in as the #3 because they are the only conference champion in the group and have several good wins, including a revenge win on Ok. State's home field in the B12CG. I think Notre Dame should still be eliminated by Cincinnati, since they have the same record, Cinci has the head-to-head, and ND's schedule is, if possible, easier than Cincinnati's (check it out, it's the Cinci loss, the neutral field Wisconsin win, a home win over Purdue, and nothing else against a team with a winning record. Toughest road games were @ Virginia and Va Tech.). That leaves Michigan and Cincinnati, and I think Michigan gets the nod because they are currently ranked higher, played a much tougher schedule, and would have lost to a better opponent. So it would be:
1. Bama
2. Georgia
3. Baylor (or OK. State if they win)
4. Michigan
I actually don't think the B12 game matters much in this scenario. The big question would be who gets picked between ND, Cincinnati, and Michigan if both Cinci and Michigan lose.
December 2nd, 2021 at 11:54 AM ^
Stewart Mandel has an article up on the Athletic this morning that says the same. He walks through 14 different scenarios based on results Saturday, the only one Michigan is definitely out is Iowa, Bama, OSU and Cincy win. He has Michigan and Bama in a toss up for the #4 seed if Iowa, UGA, OSU and Cincy win. Every other scenario he has Michigan in.
In other words, root for Houston and Baylor.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:29 PM ^
Argh.....double post
December 1st, 2021 at 2:32 PM ^
Maybe I'm alone on this one but I'm actually rooting for Cincy but AGAINST Ok St. If we would all rather play Cincy then why not just root for Ok St to lose to eliminate the possibility of them jumping Cincy? Assuming UGA wins, who cares who gets the 4th spot?
December 1st, 2021 at 2:34 PM ^
No one. I don't care.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:36 PM ^
I don't care about anyone but Michigan. Picking the lesser future possible opponent sets up for disaster imo.
December 1st, 2021 at 2:38 PM ^
Any combination that prevents Notre Dame from making the CFP works for me.