Where we will be ranked by the playoff committee
Simple question. When the committee meets, where will be we ranked? I say around 10 - Oregon will drop, and if the committee looks at how teams are currently playing (which they said that they do), I can see us jumping PSU and possibly even Oklahoma (struggles big time against terrible opponent today). 11 seems more likely. Beat OSU and we are likely 6-7, right?
November 24th, 2019 at 12:15 AM ^
#1 in our hearts #12 in the poll
November 24th, 2019 at 12:23 AM ^
I'm hoping they are ranked #12 and OSU will be ranked #1. That will just add to the similarities between this upcoming OSU/Michigan game and the 1969 upset of the century game. During that 1969 game:
- OSU was undefeated and #1
- Michigan was #12 and had two early-to-mid season losses
- It was played at the Big House
- OSU had blown out Michigan the year before
Sound familiar?
Not to mention that it will be the 50th year anniversary of that game.
November 24th, 2019 at 1:03 AM ^
Thank you for reminding me that I am old.
yes, I was there.
November 24th, 2019 at 6:57 AM ^
So, you’re saying you’re Mi Boomer Sooner then, right?
November 24th, 2019 at 1:05 AM ^
This is eerie. Is it possible fate could be on our side for once?
November 24th, 2019 at 4:43 AM ^
That gave me chills
November 24th, 2019 at 8:02 AM ^
Just further proof we're all living in a simulation
November 24th, 2019 at 8:34 AM ^
Need to find our Morpheus and Neo ASAP.
November 24th, 2019 at 8:53 AM ^
Of a simulation of a simulation. Wow
November 24th, 2019 at 9:20 AM ^
Ok Bostrom.
November 24th, 2019 at 8:23 AM ^
Also, the week before Michigan, OSU played Purdue, which had Mike Phipps and which was considered a bigger threat to them than Michigan. They won that game easily. Sounds a bit like the Penn State scenario this year. Michigan started the year slowly, but was on a roll, blowing opponents out before the Game. Add new coach (and offense) at Michigan in 1969, and new offensive coordinator and new offense this year, and the similarities continue to stack up. Now, all we need is a win and history repeats itself.
November 24th, 2019 at 9:30 AM ^
One key to the game is if Michigan can pressure Justin Fields, another is to slow down JK Dobbins to half of his average. Not asking for the impossible.
November 24th, 2019 at 9:46 AM ^
I've been saying the same thing for the last weeks to my OSU relatives: "echoes of '69". They look a little more nervous now than they did the first time I said it.
That win, by the way, was more than just the upset of the century. It announced Bo to the world, it was the first game of the 10-year war, and it made UM-OSU the center of attention in college football for years to come in a way it wasn't before.
Note that in the first 7 years of the war, UM only won twice, and then turned the corner in Woody's last years.
A 24-12 victory would be the best.
November 25th, 2019 at 1:06 PM ^
24-12 is unrealistic to ask in this modern era, but I could work with 42-21.
November 25th, 2019 at 1:06 PM ^
24-12 is unrealistic to ask in this modern era, but I could work with 42-21.
November 24th, 2019 at 12:26 AM ^
I bet PSU is ahead of us, however, we are probably one ahead of Oregon. Number 12.
November 24th, 2019 at 9:37 AM ^
We will jump PSU just to make OSU’s assumed win look better (or keep them in the top 4 with a loss).
November 24th, 2019 at 12:27 AM ^
#14
Oregon and Penn State are still both ranked ahead of Michigan and Baylor moves up a few spots.
November 24th, 2019 at 3:36 AM ^
Why would Baylor jump us, and why would Oregon be ahead of us?
Oregon has struggled against a MUCH weaker schedule and has the same record as us. Theoretically they should be nowhere close to us.
November 24th, 2019 at 12:32 AM ^
We'll only move up 1 spot to #12.
- Oregon is the only team that will (should) drop below us.
- It's unlikely we'll jump PSU or Wisconsin because of head-to-head losses.
- I believe we're currently better than Oklahoma and we've played a tougher schedule but the difference is not big enough for the committee to rank a 2-loss team over a 1-loss team.
- Beat OSU and we'll be the highest ranked 2-loss team plus we'll jump Utah, Oklahoma and Minnesota. We might even jump Alabama so #5 or #6, in my opinion.
Beat Ohio.
November 24th, 2019 at 1:24 AM ^
Florida shouldn't be ahead of us.
November 24th, 2019 at 1:30 AM ^
I agree. But given that they are ranked above us I don't know if we'll get enough credit for a quality road win at Indiana to jump them.
November 24th, 2019 at 2:23 AM ^
I think the bigger issue is Wisconsin. They won't move ahead of Florida after a meh home win over Purdue. Their metrics aren't great either. But for some reason the committee seems intent on keeping them ahead of us because of the head to head. So, we're kind of walled off.
Florida also has inexplicably good metrics (6th SoR coming into the weekend). I think Michigan is playing a lot better than Florida, but the early season suck is weighing down Ms metrics.
November 24th, 2019 at 1:46 AM ^
And we'll prove it New Year's Day.
November 24th, 2019 at 8:37 AM ^
November 24th, 2019 at 5:49 AM ^
Not if Minnesota beats Wisconsin. They win next week and they move up and stay in front of Michigan. They'll be 7 or 8 this week.
November 24th, 2019 at 9:09 AM ^
If Alabama, Oklahoma, Utah, and Georgia all lose once more. And Uofm Beats OSU, then Michigan will make the playoffs.
November 24th, 2019 at 9:29 AM ^
Why would Michigan make it in over a 1 loss big 12 champ Baylor? Or even a 2 loss pac 12 champ Oregon? Or a 2 loss big ten runner up Minnesota? Or a 2 loss Georgia whose second loss comes in championship week? It’s not happening
November 24th, 2019 at 10:07 AM ^
Michigan would have the best win of the season, and the only one that didn’t lose in November.
November 24th, 2019 at 10:37 AM ^
We didn’t just lose to Wisconsin, we got embarrassed, that matters. The committee has also said in the past they don’t want to punish teams for playing an extra game. Georgia would finish the regular season 11-1 and ranked ahead of Michigan. To drop them due to a loss in a game when Michigan doesn’t have to play a game would be the wrong decision. Michigan isn’t jumping anyone into the top 4 so that means to make the playoff we would have to be ranked 4th after next week. There is no chance of that
November 24th, 2019 at 11:07 AM ^
The committee has said that it’s not the 4 best resumes, it’s the 4 best teams. If Uofm beats OSU I would think they have a great argument as then 4th best team. Especially if they somehow won by multiple scores. I’m not expecting to beat OSU, but if Uofm does I would believe they are a top 4 team.
November 24th, 2019 at 2:18 PM ^
The committee has said a lot of things over the years, but then turned around and did the opposite. It's not the same people making these decisions every season.
It's been known for years that playing in a Conference Champion game can actually hurt a team's chances of making the playoff because the risk of losing another game.
It might not be fair, but that's the system. Some teams have made the playoff in past seasons after benefiting from not being in their Conference Championship game.
I mean, Michigan could easily be placed ahead of Georgia in that scenario if the committee believes Michigan is the better team.
November 24th, 2019 at 10:25 AM ^
The only chaos possible that makes Michigan a contender is the following: Georgia loses to GA Tech and then again to LSU in the SEC CG, Alabama loses the Iron Bowl to Auburn, Oregon loses to Oregon State but then Beats Utah in the Pac 12 CG, Oklahoma loses to Ok State, Wisky beats Minny but then loses to OSU in the B1G CG, Florida State beats Florida, Baylor loses to Oklahoma and we beat OSU. That is some MASSIVE chaos. I'm not expecting it.
November 24th, 2019 at 10:56 AM ^
I’ll preface this by saying That I don’t think Michigan is going to the playoff.
That’s a lot to happen and even discuss. But I’ll go to the Georgia part. Why does Georgia need to lose to Tech as well as LSU? Let’s say Georgia beats tech and loses to LSU. They have a 2nd lose, like Michigan, and it’s an extra game that Michigan didn’t play. But there is no way that the loser of a conference championship game, that also has a lose to a bad South Carolina gets in. Losing to Georgia tech would clinch it, but I just don’t think it’s necessary.
November 24th, 2019 at 12:00 PM ^
Because Georgia would be 11-1 to end the regular season. You don’t want to punish a team for making a championship game. So unless Georgia got truly embarrassed, they aren’t going to get dropped for losing a game to the #1 team for a team that didn’t even play that week and wasn’t ranked ahead of them at the end of the regular season. And it would be the right decision for the committee. If they believe an 11-1 Georgia has a better season than 10-2 Michigan losing a championship game shouldn’t drop them below us
November 24th, 2019 at 12:13 PM ^
Is losing at home to 4-7 South Carolina not count as embarrassing, or are you a SEC homer and every game is a tough game?
November 24th, 2019 at 12:08 PM ^
Michigan would need to Baylor to also lose once more (best case is OU loses to OSU and then beats Baylor again in B12 title game).
Michigan would make it over Oregon because they'll have a significantly better resume, better metrics and certainly clear the eye test of late. Same goes for B1G runner up Minnesota.
Two loss UGA would be close but M would probably clear that hurdle as well.
It's not gonna happen just because all those things are highly unlikely to happen together, but you're underestimating what beating the #1 team along with the impressive previous four weeks will do for Ms resume and eye test.
November 24th, 2019 at 10:25 AM ^
I like your optimism but UGA losing to Ga Tech simply will not happen this season. This is a historically bad Ga Tech team. Ga Tech will be lucky to keep that game within five scores. Maybe if Paul Johnson were still the coach.
My best case scenario is a Rose Bowl invite. I think a Michigan-Oregon or Michigan-Utah game would be really intriguing.
November 24th, 2019 at 11:53 AM ^
I’d welcome Oregon because they have the bigger names over Utah and I think Michigan could beat Oregon like they did Notre Dame. Which would be very good for the program and trajectory. I think Michigan could beat Utah but it would be a much closer game. Utah is legit this year and no one respects them. So if Michigan wins a close one or even loses then the talk will be that Harbaugh is still poor in the bowls.
November 24th, 2019 at 12:34 AM ^
Knowing them - probably lower.
I mean... we have beaten only teams that have lost to Michigan, obviously a trash schedule.
November 24th, 2019 at 8:10 AM ^
You laugh, but I'm sure most of the committee feels that way, plus its inverse, whereby Western Carolina is ranked just for holding a Tua-less Alabama to 55.
November 24th, 2019 at 12:37 AM ^
I don't see them dropping either PSU or Oregon beneath us. Probably still 13. Maybe as high as 8 or 7 after we kill the Buckeyes. If they can still squeeze into the playoff, that would put us in the Rose Bowl against Oregon or Utah. Otherwise, I hope Orange Bowl vs VT or Cotton vs Memphis/Cinci, which would be a nice change of pace for us. But surely there is some spaciotemporal vortex pulling us into playing Florida.
November 24th, 2019 at 1:24 AM ^
I don’t see how Oregon stays in front of us. Our losses are to two top 10 teams, both on the road. We’re playing much better than both of those teams today, also. Oregon just lost to a .500 team, and they didn’t look particularly good doing it, either.
November 24th, 2019 at 1:33 AM ^
No way Oregon should be ranked ahead of us. Our wins are better, and our losses are better.
November 24th, 2019 at 1:37 AM ^
Yes, they will absolutely drop Oregon below Michigan. Their losses are worse, their wins are...um, well they have one over four loss USC...so also far worse. Seriously that's their only good win. They're gonna drop behind M and Baylor to 14th maybe even all the way behind Auburn again.
Michigan is playing as well as anyone in the country over the last 4.5 games. I'm sure the committee would like to put us ahead of several other teams that are clearly inferior to Michigan (Minnesota, PSU, Wisconsin, Oklahoma) but they won't because of head-to-heads.
November 24th, 2019 at 9:01 AM ^
"Clearly inferior" is a tough sell while two of the four teams you mentioned have similar records and beat us head to head.
November 24th, 2019 at 3:38 AM ^
Michigan's schedule is in another stratosphere compared Oregon. And yet Oregon has struggled much more against their opponents than Michigan has.
There is no logical way of placing Oregon ahead of Michigan. On paper they are a much worse team and their results indicate the same.
November 24th, 2019 at 7:35 AM ^
Oregon will drop a good distance...definitely below Michigan.
November 24th, 2019 at 12:42 AM ^
Does it really matter? Beat OSU and we should move past Penn State and Wisconsin, as well as Minnesota should they lose next week. Feeling good about any upward movement this week is irrelevant. Lose next week and it doesn't matter anyway.
November 24th, 2019 at 8:47 AM ^
Does it matter in the grand scheme of things? No.
Do I like seeing Michigan ranked higher from week to week? yes, even though I know it ultimately doesn’t matter.