Where we will be ranked by the playoff committee
Simple question. When the committee meets, where will be we ranked? I say around 10 - Oregon will drop, and if the committee looks at how teams are currently playing (which they said that they do), I can see us jumping PSU and possibly even Oklahoma (struggles big time against terrible opponent today). 11 seems more likely. Beat OSU and we are likely 6-7, right?
November 24th, 2019 at 12:16 PM ^
Probably not. It matters for Michigan to make a NY6 bowl game, but like you said, the OSU game is going to sort that out. If Michigan were to win, they would easily jump into the top 10 and qualify for a NY6 game. A loss to OSU would drop us enough that we would be on the outside looking in no matter where we are ranked this week.
November 24th, 2019 at 1:09 AM ^
Probably 11 or 12. I could see us jump Oregon and PSU or UW. Despite the head to head, they were earlier in the season, and it's pretty clear UM is playing like one of the top 6-10 teams in the country right now. We've absolutely throttled ND, MSU, and Indiana.
Besides OSU, LSU, Clemson, and Bama a case could be made that UM would be a favorite or pick em against any other top team in the country on the neutral field at this point.
We're playing better than PSU, UW, Baylor, Utah and Minnesota right now.
I think Oklahoma and UGA, while completely different in style, are essentially the level at which we are playing right now.
Oklahoma has defensive issues, UGA has offensive issues, but both have similar or better talent/depth as UM. We are one of the hottest teams in the country right now, making that psu loss that much more painful.
That said, OSU is a juggernaut and it will take a special game to defeat them.
Tldr; Probably 11 or 12, but really playing like a top 6-10 team right now.
November 24th, 2019 at 1:40 AM ^
Utah is actually playing really well right now too. But agree that M is playing better than PSU, Minnesota, Baylor, OU, UW, Florida and probably even Bama and maybe Utah.
When you're covering by 20+ points like Michigan has for about 4 weeks straight, it's impressive.
November 24th, 2019 at 3:26 AM ^
Georgia didn’t look that great this weekend, and Fromm has struggled to complete 50% of passes in the last couple games
November 24th, 2019 at 9:32 AM ^
The rankings take the full season into account. You can’t just ignore the first 6 games
November 24th, 2019 at 12:10 PM ^
Of course the first six games matter. Who the hell doesn’t think the first six games matter? What the shit point was that comment supposed to do for the discussion? Now I’m making a useless post because of your useless post
The playoff committee will obviously pay attention to whether you won or lost each of the first six games, but it is proven that how a team plays in the 2nd half is weighted differently.
November 24th, 2019 at 1:44 AM ^
I'd guess Michigan is 11th. A dominant win @ 7wIndiana will be discussed, but it's likely not enough to move Michigan above Wisconsin or PSU.
This is actually an interesting week for the rankings to try to understand what the committee values. It may be wishful thinking, but at some point I'd like to believe the committee will recognize that Florida does not have the resume to justify #11. They have one win over a team with more than 6 wins on the year (Auburn) yet seem to be gliding on "good losses" to LSU and GA. In comparison, Michigan has a dominant win over 9-2 ND, and wins over 8-3 Iowa, @7-4 IU, @7-4 IL. To date, it seems the committee gives more value to "good losses" than good wins. Michigan's losses @camp randall and @happy valley are in two of the toughest venues in all of college football against top 12 teams. I'd rather player GA on a neutral field than Wisconsin in Madison.
1. OSU
2. LSU
3. Clemson
4. UGA
5. Alabama
6. Utah
7. Minnesota
8. Oklahoma
9. PSU
10. Wisconsin
11. Michigan
12. Baylor
13. Florida
14. Notre Dame
15. Oregon
16. Auburn
17. Iowa
November 24th, 2019 at 2:10 AM ^
Illinois is 6-5, not 7-4.
What's interesting about Florida is they are really strong in the metrics the committee uses. ESPN's Strength of Record metric is usually the top indicator of how the committee ranks, especially when they differ from the AP or conventions wisdom (whether that's coincidence or indication that they put a lot of weight on that metric is unclear but they do reference it).
Anyway, Florida was 6th in that metric going into this weekend with the 11th toughest SoS (both based on ESPNs FPI). That's why they're getting the most love amongst the 2-loss teams. The only explanation for that is the metrics really like Missouri (and maybe Miami - at least before this weekend).
I completely agree Michigan is playing better than Florida right now and we'll see where Michigan lands in that metric but I think Michigan is being walled off a bit by Wisconsin in the committees rankings, which is weird because they clearly don't have any qualms about putting teams that lost to other teams ahead of the other team even with the same record (see PSU being ahead of Minn). My guess is the amount by which M lost to Wisconsin is keeping them from moving ahead of Wisconsin despite looking like the better team lately.
Wisconsin, FWIW, has meh metrics (16th in SoR coming into the weekend) and won't be helped much by beating Purdue at home so that's whats probably going to prevent them from moving ahead of Florida, and again, Michigan seems stuck behind Wisconsin.
November 24th, 2019 at 2:23 AM ^
Thanks for the correction on IL.
That's interesting about FL. Has the committee actually said they use Strength of Record?
I'm not sure I've ever seen the details on how espn SOR is actually determined. Placing FL 6th seems wildly inaccurate and makes me more worried about how much SEC bias influences the committee. The records of teams like IU and IL would have an extra W if they substituted an FCS team for a conference game.
Your logic about Wisconsin blocking Michigan makes sense. I will not bet you.
November 24th, 2019 at 2:39 AM ^
I believe I've read that they are provided with ESPN's SoR metric as one of their "resume" metrics (along with I think Colley and maybe one other).
And yes, the problem with ESPN's SoR is that is has a proven SEC bias. It is calculated based on the probability that an average top 25 team (or some arbitrary normalization) would have a teams record against that teams schedule. So for instance, if an average top 25 team had a 1% chance of being undefeated against LSU's schedule, and if that's the lowest probability of any team, they're first in SoR.
It's actually a smart way to do resume because it takes into account the relative difficulty of actually obtaining Ws and Ls.
The problem is that it's based on FPI probabilities and FPI uses recruiting rankings. It's been proven time and time again that recruiting rankings (not just ESPN's) overrate players from the south that frequently end up SEC schools.
So that subjective (and proven biased) part of the formula affects their SoR metric. I tend to think it's probably marginal and Michigan benefits from biases as well (it's proven that the top programs are overrated in terms of recruiting).
November 24th, 2019 at 1:47 AM ^
I would bet very good money that Michigan will be ranked 12th.
My guess at the top 16:
1) OSU
2) LSU
3) Clemson
4) UGA
5) Bama
6) Utah
7) OU
8) Minnesota
9) PSU
10) Florida
11) Wisconsin
12) Michigan
13) Baylor
14) Auburn
15) Oregon
16) Notre Dame
November 24th, 2019 at 3:38 AM ^
I agree with this ranking. They have to keep Minnesota and Wisconsin up there in case one of those two teams decide to win their last two games (though I don't see a 2-loss Conference Champ going to the playoffs).
I really don't have faith in the committee dropping Oregon that much, but they should.
November 24th, 2019 at 1:47 AM ^
Definitely #12. Destiny awaits.
November 24th, 2019 at 2:29 AM ^
Lucky #13
November 24th, 2019 at 7:21 AM ^
Oklahoma will stay ahead of us. We will be probably be #12 next week
November 24th, 2019 at 7:31 AM ^
Don't know, but I can tell you we are probably the 5th best team out there.
November 24th, 2019 at 7:53 AM ^
Probably 12. We’re not moving ahead of Penn State. They acquitted themselves well on the road against OSU, and still have the H2H, so I don’t see them dropping below 10 or 11.
November 24th, 2019 at 7:54 AM ^
One spot higher.
November 24th, 2019 at 8:15 AM ^
Idk but a win next weekend should place us in the rose bowl...
November 24th, 2019 at 9:21 AM ^
I don’t think it will necessarily. If Minnesota wins next week but loses to OSU, I think they go to Pasadena as long as they don’t get blown out in the BTCG. Wisconsin probably won’t go unless they make it to Indy and beat OSU in a BTCG, which seems highly unlikely after what happened earlier this year.
PSU still has a say, but if Michigan found a way to win next weekend, I think Michigan leapfrogs them in the Pasadena pecking order. Odds are they’ll end up in a different NY6 bowl.
All of this of course depends on Michigan winning next weekend, which is still a real longshot. Odds are better that we end up in the Holiday Bowl rather than the Rose Bowl. But if Michigan does somehow win next Saturday, I do guarantee they make an NY6 game. No idea which one, but given how well the fan base travels, the ratings that would come with it, and that they’d be fresh off the biggest upset of the regular season, they’d be in one for sure.
November 24th, 2019 at 8:18 AM ^
I think they will rank michigan at 12.
LSU, osu, Clemson, Georgia, Alabama, Utah, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Florida, Penn state, Michigan, Auburn, Baylor, Oregon.
#12 vs #2 Saturday!
Go blue!!!!
beat osu and they will be #7, and definitely #1 in our hearts!
November 24th, 2019 at 8:53 AM ^
This is probably accurate but I see OSU being ranked #1 this week.
November 24th, 2019 at 10:30 AM ^
I would've loved a shot at Minnesota this season playing the way we are playing now. If it's Minnesota-OSU in the B1G championship, that game could get ugly for the Gophers, especially if we win this Saturday. Wisconsin would likely give OSU a better game but I don't see either one coming close to beating OSU.
November 24th, 2019 at 10:43 AM ^
Wisconsin will not leap frog Oklahoma
November 24th, 2019 at 8:48 AM ^
Not top 4.
November 24th, 2019 at 8:50 AM ^
Can I get nutty for a minute? And for the record I sure hope they can but doubt UM will have the firepower to beat this osu monster next week. What happens if...
UM beats osu
osu bears min or UW
auburn beats bama
Oregon beats Utah
Baylor beats Oklahoma
lsu beats ga
that’s not an insane situation. The craziest part would probably be UM beating osu.
November 24th, 2019 at 9:22 AM ^
These types of threads..... ??♂️ Let’s just wait to see. Shall we? Plus, it doesn’t matter anyway. 1-4 is all that matters.
November 24th, 2019 at 9:22 AM ^
I'd guess 12, Oregon is going to drop probably to behind Auburn. PSU will fall to below Florida but ahead of Wisconsin and Michigan.
November 24th, 2019 at 9:23 AM ^
If we move up more than one spot I’d be surprised. No way penn state drops below us after a competitive game at osu and oklahoma isn’t dropping 4 spots after a win. How high we get is 100 percent dependent on other teams. If everyone in front of us wins we won’t move up. Sure we would jump Florida and the loser of Wisconsin and Minnesota (maybe even the winner) but we wouldn’t jump a 1 loss bama or a 1 loss Oklahoma that beat ranked teams or a 1 loss utah, etc.
Any small chance at the playoffs is essentially dead, we aren’t going to jump teams that lose championship Saturday without playing a game ourselves
November 24th, 2019 at 9:32 AM ^
Michigan will be bostered a few spots as build up to the OSU game. The point spread as only 9 1/2 and won by 25 with a second half shutout vs Indiana on the road.
November 24th, 2019 at 10:09 AM ^
I don't see where we'd pass PSU, but a big change after next week!
November 24th, 2019 at 10:21 AM ^
If we beat OSU, we will be 6 or 7...right where we started the season. So much for preseason expectations being too high. It would also mean a grand total of 6 quarters of losing football for the year.
IF we beat OSU...?
November 24th, 2019 at 10:42 AM ^
Threeve or Eleventy-two.
November 24th, 2019 at 11:41 AM ^
The big question is where will Michigan be ranked in next year's pre season polls.
I think we need a thread on that.
November 24th, 2019 at 12:18 PM ^
I promise not to respond to that thread until January!